How many Covid-19 threads do you want?
What’s the end game to the threads?!
The vaccine is 12 months away and business/employee support is only for 3 months.
The Government do not seem to want to eradicate the virus with true lock down measures, but keep the number of cases below the NHS critical capacity by cycling lockdown/freedom measures.
And even if the Government did manage to eradicate the virus, unless you had a complete foreign travel ban until the vaccine arrives, somebody could then re-seed it.
The end game feels like the elephant in the room at the moment, and it does not feel like there is a plan except wait for the vaccine.
If we have to have the country on 12 months on semi-lockdown this is going to get apocalyptic.
Am I missing what the end game is?
How many Covid-19 threads do you want?
What’s the end game to the threads?!
This is the best advice I can offer at present:
https://youtu.be/9YRjX3A_8cM
What 'end game'?
Grow up.
When you look long into an abyss, the abyss looks long into you.........
The most important issue of your and my lifetime. If you can have 20 banal threads on which wrist I should wear my watch on, then I’m sure 3 or 4 threads on CV is not excessive.
The answer is always wear your watch on the left wrist, so no more new threads required on that one.
Business support is for AT LEAST three months not just three months.
You answered your own question. The "end game" changes every few days depending on new evidence/case numbers. At the moment, the plan is to act to reduce the number of cases at any given time to ensure that the health service can cope with them. If cases do not rise as expected, then presumably there will be fewer restrictions but if cases rise significantly as a result of this then assuming restictions have been successful in the past, they are likely to be reintroduced. This presumably will end once there is either widespread dissemination of an effective vaccine or a treatment which is significantly less resource intensive than current treatment (i.e. medication(s) which are currently available and do not require large scale clinical trials).
HTH
Universal Genève Space-Compax
Don't just do something, sit there. - TNH
It’s a fair question which people seem to be avoiding thinking about because of the nightmare path we’ve got to take. The “End Game” seems successful navigation through the lifespan of the virus avoiding at any one time surpassing the number of ICU beds the country/world has available.
As for the route to the end game, I don’t think anyone actually has a plan. You only have to look at the 180 degree turns done by the UK leadership in the last week to realise everyone is making this up as we go along. Want to actually keep this thing under control...if so, academics are saying proper lockdown (ie completely stay in our homes by threat of incarceration) for the next year until a vaccine *might* be produced.
I dunno...will it reach a point after the initial 3-month peak where the world decides that those who are vulnerable (aged/health issues) are the ones that have to isolate for self preservation?
I’m pretty sure we can write off normality for the rest of 2020 anyway. Spanish Flu lasted 11 months.
Last edited by Christian; 21st March 2020 at 23:52.
I thought this was the end game: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l28o6fJda1c
Is the end game no waiting lists for Rolex watches?
If people studied the correct sources instead of thinking this status quo will last for a year of more they would see that it is highly likely that a milder form of Chloroquine (Hydroxchloroquine) is an effective therapeutic. Still need to isolate as it isn't the same as taking a paracetemol but this makes the virus less of a killer.
Then it turns out that the BCG vaccination which was given to kids in school until around 2005 (to combat Tuberculosis) has apparently had good effects that prevents serious disease with COVID-19.
Early days but we have gone from thinking this is flu (and I had to continually put the community right on this) to sh*tting our pants because this is the end of the world (which it isn't). You'll all need to keep social distancing into the summer and then the cavalry will arrive with therapeutics. Meanwhile the virus is mutating to a more benign form (already been detected in Singaporean patients) as Coronaviruses always do (because with COVID19 we are essentially witnessing the birth of a new Common Cold).
Meanwhile the FAANG companies will gain even more control over your lives (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) as the amount of data being generated during isolation is massive.
This virus has really shown in many instances what a bunch of wet blankets a lot of the West is and what a bunch of selfish pr*cks a lot of society is, all stirred up by sensationalist media. I think sometimes there is a case to be made that too much social liberty isn't a good thing - the balance taken by a country like Singapore is often more optimal.
Respectfully, I can’t agree that this is a most credible outcome. There is more speculation and hope in your outlook than fact from what I’ve read.
For a short term outlook for wave 1, look at Italy and Spain. As the death rate becomes more unpalatable and the country sees reports of people dying in ICU, I think our civil liberties in London will end up being restricted to the point of not being allowed out to do anything...not even individual exercise.
Longer term, I think we will have waves of the pandemic much like Spanish flu. I think the second wave was the worst. Outside chance we see any kind of medical breakthrough before 12-months...I wouldn’t bet on it judging by any of the expert opinion I’ve seen.
I’ve come to the conclusion we are pretty screwed socially for a good 12-months. Longer term economically, I honestly dread to think.
Bizarre post given the swathes of sensationalist and incorrect tosh you’ve breathlessly posted on here over the last few weeks. And as for wet blankets and selfish pr*cks... coming from the bloke that filled his spare room with a grands worth of cleaning products and super noodles that’s strong stuff.
Well who knows but I have been following a lot of the breaking scientific chatter on this and the prognosis for having this under control as a whole is very good. Timing is the variable here but lots of promising stuff going on behind the scenes in terms of treatments being evaluated.
While this thread is for speculation, I do wonder if you were an utterly ruthless state who wanted to dominate after this crisis, if you sacrificed your elderly and vulnerable by allowing the pandemic to sweep through as quickly as possible whether this would gain you global advantage? Horrendous as it sounds, I wouldn’t put it past some nations if it was a viable long term plan, especially if you have your nation under complete control.
Haven’t heard much about Russia or North Korea lately...
Last edited by Christian; 22nd March 2020 at 01:07.
I’d agree, with enough economic pressure to find a solution, there is an outside chance something appears before the normal pandemic lifespan. The UK advisors don’t seem convinced though.
I do appreciate your hope though. Finding it hard myself not to see a bleak outlook for the next year.
Last edited by Christian; 22nd March 2020 at 01:05.
I think in terms of vaccine no that's not going to happen. In terms of finding effective treatment to provide better prognosis that's going to happen within a few months (and already available for mercy cases). Economic impact is going to be hard felt for a while but I don't see us being in self isolation for more than a couple of months. I also can't wait for the purported serum tests for COVID antibodies as that will show how widespread the infections are. That may provide good news as A if it is indeed widespread then case fatality is much lower but B we can rapidly identify people with antibodies against Covid who cas safely re-enter the workforce in roles where they may be caring for elderly/vulnerable people plus it may mean a lot more people have antibodies than thought. Some people are estimating as many as 2 million people in Northern Italy may actually have contracted COVID-19.
Also China, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong Kong, all functioning with a semblance of normality. Sure, 2020 isn't going to be a great one for companies as a whole (aside from the aforementioned FAANG companies) but also I've read people saying this is many multiples worse than 2008 and that assumption is based on us being stuck in this quandry for a very long time. We will adapt to this
I hope, and it really isn't based on any evidence yet, that our planet's most brilliant scientists may be further along than we know, but it would be sensible and pragmatic for them to downplay that at this stage.
Raising false hope would be very dangerous as it would not only be horrendously cruel, but probably cause too many people to relax and slacken off controls / ignore Government advice, and that could be catastrophic.
As I say, nothing more than hopeful speculation, but I think a bit of optimism isn't a bad thing in the circumstances.
Last edited by TheFlyingBanana; 22nd March 2020 at 01:26.
So clever my foot fell off.
Exactly. 100% spot on. The R0 figure (its infectiousness) of this virus is the main issue and that is what we are trying to suppress with the social distancing and inevitable quarantine to come. If it got out that the aforementioned hydroxchloroquine (as one example as there are other drugs that are having promising results too) was a bit of a silver bullet it will make people less likely to adhere to social distancing and the R0 figure will go up which is an issue as there are still capacity issues in hospitals plus we would need to manufacture a lot of therapeutic doses. So we are going to be at home watching Netflix for a few months yet.
Assumptions:
- The CV survival rate is 97-99%.
- Survivors develop an immunity to the virus.
- Tens of thousands of infectious disease scientists are working almost 24/7 to develop both vaccines and therapies to counter the virus.
- It will not take 18 months for vaccines/therapies to become available to the world population, if needed.
Health-wise, this pandemic will run its course, and the world will move on. The real question is what will the world's economy look like...better or worse than 2010? Will there be another Great Depression?
I'm no economist PC, but I have a gut feeling the will be a very rapid economic rebound when this is beaten. I think after maybe months or a year of people staying in, not taking holidays, not moving house, or buying new cars or other consumer goods, there will be a sudden and massive "splurge".
What is critical in the meantime is that jobs are preserved, and people are paid properly, even if they can't work. On this I have to give credit to our Government who have taken historic measures to do this (I don't believe there was any sensible other choice, but they could have easily been true to form and not done enough).
I hope that your Government, and the other Governments of the world do similar, and then the global economy might just come back hard rather than with a limp stagger.
I also believe, 100%, that this is the time when the banks and financial institutions that were bailed out of their criminal folly by the tax payers in 2008 must step up and repay the moral debt they owe. That goes for mega-wealth individuals and companies who have benefitted so much from society (Richard Branson, are you listening?)
So clever my foot fell off.
I’ll add this as well. The team that cracks this will become household names across the world and whoever leads that team will become one of the most famous people in history.
They will have schools, hospitals, libraries and roads named after them and will be showered with awards.
And they’ll deserve it.
So clever my foot fell off.
He would himself acknowledge that it is far too soon to be sure, but I firmly beleive that a significant nail is being sunk in the coffin of neoliberalism and Chou-En_Lai's vision for China and the world is cementing significant recent advances. All part of a century long process that began with the world in awe of the USA and China at its lowest ebb..
Immunity will build as more people get the virus. I expect this to get much worse very quickly then get better slowly probably in waves.
The sharp drop in cases in China gives some hope. The best medical brains around the world are working on vaccines and treatments. This won't last forever.
It is extremely worrying but it isn't the apocalypse. All we can do is sit tight and stay safe.
The country that cracks this would be first out of the starting blocks and could win a huge economic prize. That’s one of the reasons some governments are underwriting employment costs, as they know we need businesses ready to spring into action once the end of the tunnel comes into view.
remdesivir seems to close for approval and likely the effective treatment for covid19. Its unprecedented times and hope if this works it can get to as many patients as quickly as possible.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Thanks Ryan. I’d say you’ve kept my thinking ahead of the curve and you’ve largely been proved right so far.
Without trying to make a joke of it or be flippant, I think we might inadvertently be about to see how this strategy plays out in the US under the orange gibbon’s pathetically inadequate leadership.
I too have been convinced this is an economic crisis narrowly ahead of a health crisis as well, but the economic crisis hasn’t been caused by CV only exposed by it. Too much built on credit.
Last edited by catch21; 22nd March 2020 at 08:43.
The “End Game”.
Become infected and survive.
Become inflected and die.
Indefinitely avoid becoming inflected and survive.
Variables
The introduction of a vaccine - assume 12 months at least.
Virus dies out on its own - unlikely
Virus mutates (more likely).
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Go back in time and steal all of the Infinity stones before Thanos does and then reverse the click, piece of cake.
Agreed.
@ Ryan genuine question what are the ‘correct sources’ you have been studying, and what qualifies you to interpret them? I thought you worked in tech sales, and you were presenting as an expert in AI a couple of weeks ago, but now you seem to be expert in virology and epidemiology. Data scientist? Or just another day on the ‘frontline‘ for another TZ-UK WALT.
Ok firstly I know I'm often the guy people a few people love to kick here but that's fine as I know my posts helped a lot of people take this more seriously and if that helped minimise spread then I'm pleased.
I'm also on the autistic spectrum (as is my son) which has the downside at times of presenting topics in a sensationalised, seemingly unfeeling way but has the upside that I'm able to learn things incredibly quickly regardless of complexity, albeit in a borderline obsessive manner. Quid pro quo but it is what it is. You asked so there it is.
Regarding sources I've found the COVID19 subreddit on Reddit very helpful. It differs markedly from the coronavirus and Chinaflu subreddits by focusing only on factual information and has a number of virologists and epidemiologists on there contributing. What is very useful is the direct links to scientific research papers and evaluations of actual real time clinical trials that are going on. On top of this I share information with other individuals who are similarly interested. I also have family members working in senior medical roles in the far east (including a head of ICU in a major northern Thai hospital dealing with these cases and also with extensive experience of dealing with SARS cases a decade or so ago). So of course I'm not saying I know everything but I am correlating some information from what I believe are more reliable sources and trying to present this data as I feel there has now been a case of the pendulum swinging too far the other way and despair taking over. We aren't there yet and still have so much under our control and the likelihood of this remaining untreatable for a long time is very low as from the actual virologists I have spoken with what they have told me is whilst they are scared of the infectious ness and ability to crash health systems of this disease there is nothing that they have seen that makes them fearful around the possibility of rapidly having therapeutics and a longer term vaccine. With regards to the mutation issue they are hoping it does as A it makes it easier to track what they call family trees and identify origins and B typically Coronavirus mutations are towards a more benign form.
Hope that helps. If you don't want to read my content you are allowed to block me but bullying should not be tolerated.
Last edited by ryanb741; 22nd March 2020 at 12:22.
I thought all the social distancing , closing pubs etc is not to stop the virus but to stop the NHS being overwhelmed in ICU. As nobody has immunity from this virus , until a significant amount of the population have had it , it won't be going away until the "herd" immunity factor kicks in and the development of a vaccine. I could of course be totally wrong and got the wrong end of the stick!