What is the End Game?

[Andyg]

I thought all the social distancing , closing pubs etc is not to stop the virus but to stop the NHS being overwhelmed in ICU. As nobody has immunity from this virus , until a significant amount of the population have had it , it won't be going away until the "herd" immunity factor kicks in and the development of a vaccine. I could of course be totally wrong and got the wrong end of the stick!

Correct, the government are trying to slow the spread to enable the NHS to best cope and treat those who are treatable, not stop the spread, because that’s impossible.

The only way to stop it would be a 100% global vaccination programme - so that would never happen, because of logistics and because of people like the anti-vaxers. Which is why things like Measles, Mumps, Rubella, are making a comeback and why TB, Polio and Smallpox never went away.

[noTAGlove]

Currently 0.0086% of the UK population has already had CV and 0.0004% have died from it, and the U.K. is already in meltdown. God knows what will have even if we get to 1%.

If the end game is truly the vaccine, and we have to wait 12 months for it, there is no way that we can continue to live this way, or likely with even more stringent measures.

Society will break down, there will be civil disobedience and riots. The Government cannot keep the current level of fiscal support up for a year, and there will be an economic depression like which has never been seen before.

For me, there is only one answer, and that is for the 65+ year olds and those with specific underlying risks to enter strict and enforced isolation until the vaccine is available. But, the state should provide proper support to allow this.

Everyone else gets back to work and takes there chances on the basis that if you are under 65 and have no significant underlying issues, your chances of dying are very low, especially if you are receiving appropriate medical attention if required.

The isolation of 65+ year olds will then free up the NHS for the much fewer serious cases associated with <65 year olds.

[bigweb]

Currently 0.0086% of the UK population has already had CV and 0.0004% have died from it, and the U.K. is already in meltdown. God knows what will have even if we get to 1%.

If the end game is truly the vaccine, and we have to wait 12 months for it, there is no way that we can continue to live this way, or likely with even more stringent measures.

Society will break down, there will be civil disobedience and riots. The Government cannot keep the current level of fiscal support up for a year, and there will be an economic depression like which has never been seen before.

For me, there is only one answer, and that is for the 65+ year olds and those with specific underlying risks to enter strict and enforced isolation until the vaccine is available. But, the state should provide proper support to allow this.

Everyone else gets back to work and takes there chances on the basis that if you are under 65 and have no significant underlying issues, your chances of dying are very low, especially if you are receiving appropriate medical attention if required.

The isolation of 65+ year olds will then free up the NHS for the much fewer serious cases associated with <65 year olds.

I’ve been saying this from the start. Waiting for a vaccine isn’t an option as it too far down the road. Unless any of the anti virals which look promising work out for us the only option is for us healthy people to get it.

[Christian]

Controversial suggestion which will definitely not go down well in today’s woke society if people are seen to disadvantage a minority based on age or vulnerability. I suggest we’d all see the 12-months of the virus out in lockdown before coming to that.

[100thmonkey]

All you should ask in these difficult time is what do I need to know for the next 24hrs, everything else is unpredictable and will only add to your anxiety

[vortgern]

bullying should not be tolerated.

Listening to some absolute northern f*cktards on the BBC News Brexit special. Middle aged racist twats. Ashamed to share a passport with these mouthbreather c*nts. Hopefully Coronavirus can weave its magic here - might be a blessing in disguise?

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[Chinnock]

Currently 0.0086% of the UK population has already had CV and 0.0004% have died from it, and the U.K. is already in meltdown. God knows what will have even if we get to 1%.

If the end game is truly the vaccine, and we have to wait 12 months for it, there is no way that we can continue to live this way, or likely with even more stringent measures.

Society will break down, there will be civil disobedience and riots. The Government cannot keep the current level of fiscal support up for a year, and there will be an economic depression like which has never been seen before.

For me, there is only one answer, and that is for the 65+ year olds and those with specific underlying risks to enter strict and enforced isolation until the vaccine is available. But, the state should provide proper support to allow this.

Everyone else gets back to work and takes there chances on the basis that if you are under 65 and have no significant underlying issues, your chances of dying are very low, especially if you are receiving appropriate medical attention if required.

The isolation of 65+ year olds will then free up the NHS for the much fewer serious cases associated with <65 year olds.

Total agreement there. Throw money at the vulnerable and isolate / protect, instead of sacrificing everyone else’s financial future and employment prospects.

90% of the world appears to be sacrificing the global economy to protect the 10%. Social, political and financial suicide on a global scale.

The numbers just don’t make sense.

[TheFlyingBanana]

Perhaps Kirk has the answer as to what makes a civilised society?

[BillN]

How about a radical view

if this goes on and on with high numbers of deaths and US and Western economies severely decimated coupled with a further expansion of Chinese territorial ambitions

end game = Trumps on DEFCON 1, ("cocked and locked"), has an itchy finger and retaliates against the Chinese

[Chris_in_the_UK]

How about a radical view

if this goes on and on with high numbers of deaths and US and Western economies severely decimated coupled with a further expansion of Chinese territorial ambitions

end game = Trumps on DEFCON 1, ("cocked and locked"), has an itchy finger and retaliates against the Chinese

How about none of this political stuff in the G&D?

[Christian]

Total agreement there. Throw money at the vulnerable and isolate / protect, instead of sacrificing everyone else’s financial future and employment prospects.

90% of the world appears to be sacrificing the global economy to protect the 10%. Social, political and financial suicide on a global scale.

The numbers just don’t make sense.

Controversial “never was so much owed by so few to so many” thinking.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

Total agreement there. Throw money at the vulnerable and isolate / protect, instead of sacrificing everyone else’s financial future and employment prospects.

90% of the world appears to be sacrificing the global economy to protect the 10%. Social, political and financial suicide on a global scale.

The numbers just don’t make sense.

Are you seriously suggesting we ignore the most vulnerable people in our society?

[Chinnock]

Are you seriously suggesting we ignore the most vulnerable people in our society?

Where does me saying “Throw money at the vulnerable and isolate / protect” indicate we ignore them?

[Chris_in_the_UK]

Where does me saying “Throw money at the vulnerable and isolate / protect” indicate we ignore them?

You said it did not make sense?

Have I misunderstood?

[Andyg]

Currently 0.0086% of the UK population has already had CV and 0.0004% have died from it, and the U.K. is already in meltdown. God knows what will have even if we get to 1%.

If the end game is truly the vaccine, and we have to wait 12 months for it, there is no way that we can continue to live this way, or likely with even more stringent measures.

Society will break down, there will be civil disobedience and riots. The Government cannot keep the current level of fiscal support up for a year, and there will be an economic depression like which has never been seen before.

For me, there is only one answer, and that is for the 65+ year olds and those with specific underlying risks to enter strict and enforced isolation until the vaccine is available. But, the state should provide proper support to allow this.

Everyone else gets back to work and takes there chances on the basis that if you are under 65 and have no significant underlying issues, your chances of dying are very low, especially if you are receiving appropriate medical attention if required.

The isolation of 65+ year olds will then free up the NHS for the much fewer serious cases associated with <65 year olds.

Rather than simply isolating over 65s (which is a bit random to be honest as it doesn’t take into consideration their health), why not educate everyone as to the risks and methods of prevention and allow them to make their own decisions. This includes all of other “at risk” folks ( including those under 65). Perhaps they would rather take a chance, rather than be locked up like Rapunzel for the rest of their lives. If they become ill, then explain what steps the NHS would take, I.e a triage service meaning that priority would be given to younger people with a greater survival rate ( providing of course they were more worthy ).

Also it seems that one of the biggest problems (in Italy and Spain) is old folks being herded together in old people homes and perhaps it would be better if these places were closed down and families made to actually look after their parents, rather than outsourcing it to others.

So basically you are suggesting that we should simply throw everyone over 65 under the bus, because it’s interfering with your life? Forgetting of course it was these people who funded the NHS for the longest.

[Chinnock]

You said it did not make sense?

Have I misunderstood?

Stopping industry and financially compromising 90% of the global population doesn’t make sense.

Instead of indirectly stopping commerce, spend the money and resources on protecting the vulnerable and isolate, isolate, isolate.

Let the rest of the “healthy” population work and protect the global economy, instead of sacrificing it and let heard immunity run it’s natural course. We will obviously need it for future pandemics. After all, you can’t fight nature and one vaccine for this strain will only protect us once.

[Chris_in_the_UK]

Stopping industry and financially compromising 90% of the global population doesn’t make sense.

Instead of indirectly stopping commerce, spend the money and resources on protecting the vulnerable and isolate, isolate, isolate.

Let the rest of the “healthy” population work and protect the global economy, instead of sacrificing it and let heard immunity run it’s natural course. We will obviously need it for future pandemics. After all, you can’t fight nature and one vaccine for this strain will only protect us once.

Heaven help you when you get old and vulnerable.

[Chinnock]

Heaven help you when you get old and vulnerable.

I would happily and unselfishly isolate myself from family and society if it ensured their financial security and future prosperity.

[TheFlyingBanana]

I would happily and unselfishly isolate myself from family and society if it ensured their financial security and future prosperity.

I'm equally sure they wouldn't try and talk you out of it...

[Saint-Just]

Heaven help you when you get old and vulnerable.

I may be wrong but I think Chinnock’s point is misunderstood.
He is not -as I understand it- suggesting that the most vulnerable should be ignored. In fact, quite the opposite: instead of spending considerable amounts of money that not only we don’t have but our standing still economy stops us from earning, a larger amount per individual but overall smaller total could be spent on support for their isolation when the younger, more valid members of society would continue to keep the rest of the country working.

I have no idea of how realistic a proposition this is but I am pretty sure the scenario will be studied intensely when this crisis is gone.

[Chinnock]

I may be wrong but I think Chinnock’s point is misunderstood.
He is not -as I understand it- suggesting that the most vulnerable should be ignored. In fact, quite the opposite: instead of spending considerable amounts of money that not only we don’t have but our standing still economy stops us from earning, a larger amount per individual but overall smaller total could be spent on support for their isolation when the younger, more valid members of society would continue to keep the rest of the country working.

I have no idea of how realistic a proposition this is but I am pretty sure the scenario will be studied intensely when this crisis is gone.

Thank you SJ, my point exactly.

[snowman]

Thank you SJ, my point exactly.

Seems reasonable on the face of it.

The 'End Game" presumably will be herd immunity, so they'll have to let the healthy get it sometime.

That seems, though, to be the plan. Spread the infection curve so it's long and flatter, rather than short, but higher in peak, where ICUs would be overwhelmed...

Maybe I missed the latest developments?

M

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[Christian]

Thank you SJ, my point exactly.

I think the problem is a lot of people consider themselves to be healthier than they actually are and you still end up swamping the ICU because it’s hard to exactly predict who the vulnerable are. If this were a realistic solution, I’m sure one nation would have considered it by now. No leader wants his country’s media reporting people in body bags.

[Captain Morgan]

No leader wants his country’s media reporting ‘Internment camps’ for those at risk, staffed by workers in hazmat suits, being prevented from seeing friends and family and with the risk of the virus entering the camp and ripping through it like wildfire.

While I’m sure that wouldn’t be the intent, its likely to become the reality.

I’m sure no one wants there loved ones placed in that situation.

[Saint-Just]

No leader wants his country’s media reporting ‘Internment camps’ for those at risk, staffed by workers in hazmat suits, being prevented from seeing friends and family and with the risk of the virus entering the camp and ripping through it like wildfire.

While I’m sure that wouldn’t be the intent, its likely to become the reality.

I’m sure no one wants there loved ones placed in that situation.

I don't think it would be an acceptable solution in a democracy. Indeed, our most vulnerable are also the most likely to be distressed by being moved from their home. So home isolation would still be the way to go; what could change is a specific food delivery service, including prepared meals if the person is unable / unwilling to cook. Others aspects would have to be considered, to help them through the day. If we have quick tests, designated carer could be tested before going to his patients. As I said, the idea is to focus our resources on protecting the people who need it most instead of all of them. A bit like concentrating the money you give away to people who need it most, rather than give $2000 to every adult regardless of their continuing income.

[noTAGlove]

I think the problem is a lot of people consider themselves to be healthier than they actually are and you still end up swamping the ICU because it’s hard to exactly predict who the vulnerable are. If this were a realistic solution, I’m sure one nation would have considered it by now. No leader wants his country’s media reporting people in body bags.

Well the only alternative is to wait for the vaccine, and continue with current measures, which with time will become more draconian.

Earliest 12 months for a vaccine, with many commentators saying 18 months is more likely.

Isolation for this duration will cause significant mental health issues in the population, and I don’t think possible for this duration. No education system for 12-18 months. Mass layoffs. Society break down with civil disobedience, looting and rioting.

No easy answer, but on balance isolating the minority of people (>65 year olds, high risk), around 12 million (mostly economically inactive) people, is for me better than isolating the whole 67 million population.

[langdalematt]

What I find utterly hilarious is the fact that I reckon there is already now over 1 million infections in the UK and maybe more. We need to ride this out, this virus is definitely airborne will likely be on anything delivered to your door, so postman and Tesco delivery truck, just as likely to bring into your house. Are people prepared to literally seal their windows and disinfect anything coming through their door from outside, including pets?

I personally am 99% certain the kids and myself have had it, I know of at least 15-20 people who have had it. I know people confirmed to have had it that have shown zero symptoms and spread it round everywhere. It’s too late for action now, lockdown was needed 8 weeks ago, it’s out and it will not be going anywhere, it even survives ok in the heat. Just accept the herd immunity will happen, we will likely see 40,000 people die, regardless of what we do next and that is a fact.

[noTAGlove]

What worries me the most is that the Government are not telling the population their true strategy.

Everything is geared towards a 3 month isolation, and then some sort of rolling isolation as required.

Well with a current infection rate of only 0.0086% there is going to be no rolling isolation. It will be complete lockdown for 12-18 months if we pursue the current strategy.

This is the elephant in the room. We should be pressing the Goverment for their 12 month plan.

[langdalematt]

What worries me the most is that the Government are not telling the population their true strategy.

Everything is geared towards a 3 month isolation, and then some sort of rolling isolation as required.

Well with a current infection rate of only 0.0086% there is going to be no rolling isolation. It will be complete lockdown for 12-18 months if we pursue the current strategy.

This is the elephant in the room. We should be pressing the Goverment for their 12 month plan.

See my above post, ignore the numbers they are so far out it beggars belief.

[ryanb741]

See my above post, ignore the numbers they are so far out it beggars belief.

This. Yesterday some research came out from Oxford University estimating Infection fatality Rate at 0.19%. Case Fatality Rate is much higher but is based on cases diagnosed in tests and it appears by far the vast majority of cases aren't diagnosed.

So if we take yesterday's UK total deaths of 281 and apply the 0.19% Infection Fatality rate that indicates just under 150k infections in the UK. Hwoever as it typically takes 10 days on average to die of COVID then this was the estimated number of infections 10 days ago. We have seen images of people ignoring social distancing rules so we have to assume real infections are at least triple that now. So 450k probably cases /66 million population is around 0.7% of the UK population currently having (or have had) COVID19. But that is lowballing it - Matt is probably not far off with the 1 million figure. But then again that is a bit reassuring too if the actual infection fatality rate is much lower than feared.

But to think we have around 5.5k cases and yet somehow Idriss Elba, The Arsenal Manager, some chelsea players, Nadine Dorries etc all managed to get it from such a low sample group just beggars belief!

[langdalematt]

This. Yesterday some research came out from Oxford University estimating Infection fatality Rate at 0.19%. Case Fatality Rate is much higher but is based on cases diagnosed in tests and it appears by far the vast majority of cases aren't diagnosed.

So if we take yesterday's UK total deaths of 281 and apply the 0.19% Infection Fatality rate that indicates just under 150k infections in the UK. Hwoever as it typically takes 10 days on average to die of COVID then this was the estimated number of infections 10 days ago. We have seen images of people ignoring social distancing rules so we have to assume real infections are at least triple that now. So 450k probably cases /66 million population is around 0.7% of the UK population currently having (or have had) COVID19. But that is lowballing it - Matt is probably not far off with the 1 million figure. But then again that is a bit reassuring too if the actual infection fatality rate is much lower than feared.

But to think we have around 5.5k cases and yet somehow Idriss Elba, The Arsenal Manager, some chelsea players, Nadine Dorries etc all managed to get it from such a low sample group just beggars belief!

Exactly and I genuinely believe it is more than 1 million in the UK this thing spreads like wildfire it is that infectious. Plus the symptoms are there for 21 days, even if mild.

[noTAGlove]

And so it continues. No mention of a plan to get back to normal.

No end game yet. No end game in sight.

[Bondurant]

I don't mean to be rude but what exactly are you expecting? We have a range of uncertain scenarios which people are trying to plan for. It is overwhelming.

What do you want to happen?

[noTAGlove]

What do you want to happen?

I would like the Government to be upfront with the public and communicate what their medium/long term plan is.

[Mr Curta]

The endgame is unknown and irrelevant when you are still playing the opening moves. China is only now beginning their middlegame and still have no clue how things will pan out. Things will evolve, possibly very rapidly, as various medical procedures become readily available. There will be an end as there is to all things, but it is too early to say when and how.

[Andyg]

I would like the Government to be upfront with the public and communicate what their medium/long term plan is.

I think it’s dependant upon lots of different factors.

For example if a cure is found tomorrow, then the plan would be a very different answer to a mass infection with high mortality because Covid 19 has evolved in to Covid 19+.

Unfortunately irrespective of what some media outlets might think there is not an idiots guide to resolving this unless they have the ability to see into the future. Notwithstanding there are lots of issues at work and different agendas. Do they try to save everyone and kill the economy (and drive society back into the Middle Ages)? or save the economy and put millions at greater risk? Personally I think they are treading a line in the middle. But whatever they do, some folks will still complain (especially with the benefit of hindsight).

One thing is certain is that the world will be a different place next year.

[noTAGlove]

More pressure now exerted on the Government regarding what is the exit plan or end game. Especially given Mervyn Kings interview today.

I can appreciate in the early stages it is all about protecting lives.

But with, 1 million additional universal credit claims, multiple people falling through the Government payout safety net and just the fact that there will be no economy to come back to if this carries on for another 6 months, this is going to be and increasingly important issue going forward on a daily basis.

[ryanb741]

More pressure now exerted on the Government regarding what is the exit plan or end game. Especially given Mervyn Kings interview today.

I can appreciate in the early stages it is all about protecting lives.

But with, 1 million additional universal credit claims, multiple people falling through the Government payout safety net and just the fact that there will be no economy to come back to if this carries on for another 6 months, this is going to be and increasingly important issue going forward on a daily basis.

The aim obviously of lockdown is to flatten the curve but also get the R0 figure (the infectiousness) as low as possible and ideally below 1 so the virus will burn out. In order to achieve this R0 figure of below 1 but still maintain a functioning economy we would require our population to be responsible, practice hygiene and social distancing, probably wear masks in public and generally be responsible adults. Whether we can trust our population to be so responsible is the big question. But they manage it in many Asian countries so there is hope.

[crazyp]

The aim obviously of lockdown is to flatten the curve but also get the R0 figure (the infectiousness) as low as possible and ideally below 1 so the virus will burn out. In order to achieve this R0 figure of below 1 but still maintain a functioning economy we would require our population to be responsible, practice hygiene and social distancing, probably wear masks in public and generally be responsible adults. Whether we can trust our population to be so responsible is the big question. But they manage it in many Asian countries so there is hope.

The London Underground...


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[RobDad]

All I will add is how ridiculous behaviour on the London Underground is. That must be such a dangerous place to be at the moment, every time a train pulls into a station it brings a gust of warm air that must be perfect to spread an airborne virus. Incredibly dangerous to keep it open imho - with no traffic and so many at home surely buses can take the strain? Not perfect but better than most rural locations.
As an aside, I’m not remotely surprised how many ‘celebrities’ have Coronavirus. They travel the world meeting people, shaking hands and air kissing each other and must be approached by fans all the time, perform in theatres or on film sets surrounded by people.


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[RobDad]

I would like the Government to be upfront with the public and communicate what their medium/long term plan is.

I’m sure they can make something up, then get criticised for not achieving their aims because they are just making it up as they go along. Because nobody knows when this will go away - anything now would be an educated guess. And that’s not a criticism, I believe the reality is that nobody really knows what will happen. Better to keep it open than make up something to keep us happy imho


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[higham5]

I’m sure they can make something up, then get criticised for not achieving their aims because they are just making it up as they go along. Because nobody knows when this will go away - anything now would be an educated guess. And that’s not a criticism, I believe the reality is that nobody really knows what will happen. Better to keep it open than make up something to keep us happy imho


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Totally agree with you , thanks for posting. This time we dont want or need spin

Steve

[Passenger]

I’m sure they can make something up, then get criticised for not achieving their aims because they are just making it up as they go along. Because nobody knows when this will go away - anything now would be an educated guess. And that’s not a criticism, I believe the reality is that nobody really knows what will happen. Better to keep it open than make up something to keep us happy imho


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Agreed and yet on March 19th Boris went as far as publicly putting a 12 week 'turn the tide' timescale on this thing and send it 'packing'...Now the NHs might pull it off, but I agree with you it was a daft thing to come out and say publicly, especially considering it took the Chinese around 16 weeks from start to finish and they locked down really efficently with all the force of a near totalitarian state and test, test, tested.

Still we are where we are and can only observe and try to make sense of events whilst each doing our best.

[Christian]

All I will add is how ridiculous behaviour on the London Underground is. That must be such a dangerous place to be at the moment, every time a train pulls into a station it brings a gust of warm air that must be perfect to spread an airborne virus. Incredibly dangerous to keep it open imho - with no traffic and so many at home surely buses can take the strain? Not perfect but better than most rural locations.

I think the underground is too essential to shut down. Most of us don’t have cars and there would be no real option for getting NHS into the central hospitals. Most live in the outer zones as anything zone 4 or inward is too expensive. Try getting a bus to Waterloo from somewhere like Ruislip...you’d be commuting for half the day.

[RobDad]

I think the underground is too essential to shut down. Most of us don’t have cars and there would be no real option for getting NHS into the central hospitals. Most live in the outer zones as anything zone 4 or inward is too expensive. Try getting a bus to Waterloo from somewhere like Ruislip...you’d be commuting for half the day.

I agree broadly but not sure about the travel times if the roads are empty, and not sure about the lack of cars. I lived in Wimbledon until 5 years ago and commuted into central London daily. Nearly all my neighbours had multiple cars parked up the street. I also fail to understand why more people aren’t able to work remotely from home. How about closing the underground and putting on free buses to get the NHS and key workers to work? Desperate times call for desperate measures imho. London is too busy which is why I left. Hated it. My heart goes out to people having to go through this in a busy town or city, but people need to just stay home.


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[Montello]

I'm no economist PC, but I have a gut feeling the will be a very rapid economic rebound when this is beaten. I think after maybe months or a year of people staying in, not taking holidays, not moving house, or buying new cars or other consumer goods, there will be a sudden and massive "splurge".

Splurge? With what! Some people are getting paid but millions are not and many businesses will go broke.

I think even after this period is over we will see less demand/consumption.

This will effect the economic future for years. Anyone expecting a short term rebound is very hopeful imho.


Edit. Just released ...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52137727

[murkeywaters]

I would like the Government to be upfront with the public and communicate what their medium/long term plan is.

I can tell you now that the government are preparing certain things around the country that are being kept very quiet, probable reason is to not panic the public.

They show off the hospitals being built but other preparations are also in place that would cause great unease..

[Mr Curta]

I think even after this period is over we will see less demand/consumption.

I do also. I think that a great many will be more debt averse and inclined to build up savings to cover unforeseen events. I suspect that simpler things will be appreciated more and there will be less craving for the next 'must-have'. People will spend more on activities and experiences and less on luxury goods. Even those who have made or saved money during this crisis will tend to be more cautious. Maybe not but that's my 2p.

[Kaffe]

The end game is that we all die eventually from whatever cause. Make the best of what you can out of life with whatever resources are available. The best thing you can do is to stop worrying and just get on with it.

[galewis]

I can tell you now that the government are preparing certain things around the country that are being kept very quiet, probable reason is to not panic the public.

They show off the hospitals being built but other preparations are also in place that would cause great unease..

How do you know these things?