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Thread: Track The Collapsing Value Of Your Watch

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Its making it a real problem to find the size 7 used shoes and XXXL Barbour Skyfall jackets. I think we need a separate Rolex Sales subforum.
    As a rotund gentleman with modest feet, I concur. :)

  2. #52
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Der Amf View Post
    11 days later, none have gone, one has been reduced by 400, and a new arrival undercuts all the others by a healthy margin:

    Thanks for posting, very interesting.

    Actually that's a rather nice looking watch as well, one I hadn't really paid much attention to before. Ah, but no screw down crown.
    Last edited by Passenger; 31st March 2020 at 10:41.

  3. #53
    Grand Master Der Amf's Avatar
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    Can't you have your childish squabbles on other threads? I know some people get through hard times by being spreading the misery but some of us are trying to enjoy ourselves here.

  4. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Der Amf View Post
    Can't you have your childish squabbles on other threads? I know some people get through hard times by being spreading the misery but some of us are trying to enjoy ourselves here.
    Sorry for thread spoiling:-)
    Will delete my post.

  5. #55
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    Track The Collapsing Value Of Your Watch

    Black Bay GMT at 3516
    Seamaster 300 Chrono at 2301
    North Flag bracelet 2222
    Eterna Heritage Military 1939 954
    Ranger on leather 1599

    Just posting the ones I can find on Chrono24 and then will post back in future to see how much theyve moved.

    I think the BB GMT is way overpriced

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  6. #56
    Grand Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alasdairmc View Post
    Black Bay GMT at 3516
    Seamaster 300 Chrono at 2301
    North Flag bracelet 2222
    Eterna Heritage Military 1939 954
    Ranger on leather 1599

    Just posting the ones I can find on Chrono24 and then will post back in future to see how much theyve moved.

    I think the BB GMT is way overpriced

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I was on this morning - my gmt on bracelet isnt priced that high? although I use the median value. Also if you edit the watch to be watch only instead of with box and papers it lowers the value to far more realistic levels

  7. #57
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    Track The Collapsing Value Of Your Watch


    I wonder if its to do with how weve both categorised it. If my watch model name has only been used for a few sales at the higher end, then it would appear to be worth more than yours, which perhaps loads of people have used. Odd nonetheless...

    Perhaps its also due to age? Mine is about a year newer.

  8. #58
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    One things for sure, chrono24 prices are ludicrous, even when you filter it for UK only sales which should remove any weakness in the pound. Im guessing the sellers fees dont help.

    If I sew a watch from a dealer on there, Id be tempted to do my research on the dealer and see if they have a website to cut away the middle man.

  9. #59
    Grand Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    One things for sure, chrono24 prices are ludicrous, even when you filter it for UK only sales which should remove any weakness in the pound. Im guessing the sellers fees dont help.

    If I sew a watch from a dealer on there, Id be tempted to do my research on the dealer and see if they have a website to cut away the middle man.
    If you exit each to be without box and papers it makes the value far more realistic

  10. #60
    Grand Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alasdairmc View Post

    I wonder if its to do with how weve both categorised it. If my watch model name has only been used for a few sales at the higher end, then it would appear to be worth more than yours, which perhaps loads of people have used. Odd nonetheless...

    Perhaps its also due to age? Mine is about a year newer.
    Pretty sure itll be age driven

  11. #61
    My 116520 still holding strong, though doubt anyone is buying them at the current price! Oh and as a personal bonus, I found the papers for said watch after 'misplacing them'. Result!

  12. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    If I sew a watch from a dealer on there, Id be tempted to do my research on the dealer and see if they have a website to cut away the middle man.
    That's what I've always done with Chrono24.

  13. #63
    Grand Master Mr Curta's Avatar
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    The average asking price for Tintins has gone up, probably an exchange rate thing.
    Don't just do something, sit there. - TNH

  14. #64
    Grand Master Der Amf's Avatar
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    Actually looking at all the UK adverts and not just pressing the giz a value button is both more enjoyable and less confusing.

  15. #65
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    Not sure of the point of this thread.

    (1) It seems to duplicate several others on the site.
    (2) It seems to be for those who might hope to scoop a "grail" watch cheap.
    (3) It fails to understand that something has a value only if you chose to sell it. ... and who sells into a buyers market if they don't have to?

  16. #66
    Grand Master Mr Curta's Avatar
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  17. #67
    Grand Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aldfort View Post
    Not sure of the point of this thread.

    (1) It seems to duplicate several others on the site.
    (2) It seems to be for those who might hope to scoop a "grail" watch cheap.
    (3) It fails to understand that something has a value only if you chose to sell it. ... and who sells into a buyers market if they don't have to?
    Re (3) - But lots are currently having to

  18. #68
    Grand Master Der Amf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by aldfort View Post
    Not sure of the point of this thread.
    Just read the title.

  19. #69
    Grand Master Der Amf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Der Amf View Post
    11 days later, none have gone, one has been reduced by 400, and a new arrival undercuts all the others by a healthy margin:

    The new arrival at 3,600 has gone, though no way of knowing if sold, or pulled

  20. #70
    Grand Master snowman's Avatar
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    Just had a quick peak at Chrono24 prices on the watches I own that are worth anything and they're all asking more (in some cases, far more) than I paid, so I'm not sure the bottom has fallen out of the market yet.

    Of course, people may NOT be buying at those prices.

    Guess I'm going to have to wait for the 500 Fifty Fathoms!

    Certainly doing better than my ISAs!

    M
    Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?

  21. #71
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    I'm surprised people use Chrono24 as a price benchmark as these are watches for sale. Not watches that have sold. Jump on eBay and search sold prices.

  22. #72
    Grand Master Der Amf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPCain86 View Post
    I'm surprised people use Chrono24 as a price benchmark as these are watches for sale. Not watches that have sold. Jump on eBay and search sold prices.
    This isn't looking for prices, this is for tracking changes in advertised prices. The values themselves aren't relevant, it's the percentage change, and so long as like is compared with like, there's little bother.

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by snowman View Post
    Just had a quick peak at Chrono24 prices on the watches I own that are worth anything and they're all asking more (in some cases, far more) than I paid, so I'm not sure the bottom has fallen out of the market yet.

    Of course, people may NOT be buying at those prices.

    Guess I'm going to have to wait for the 500 Fifty Fathoms!

    Certainly doing better than my ISAs!

    M
    I'll put a reminder in my phone for those 500 Fifty Fathoms, ta.
    My stake holder pension has slipped a bit too

  24. #74
    Grand Master snowman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPCain86 View Post
    I'm surprised people use Chrono24 as a price benchmark as these are watches for sale. Not watches that have sold. Jump on eBay and search sold prices.
    None of the watches I checked show up when I do that...

    M
    Breitling Cosmonaute 809 - What's not to like?

  25. #75
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    Can someone PM me when a you can get a SS Rolex Zenith Daytona for less than 10k, a DRSD for less than 12k and a meters first 5513 for less than 6k. Many thanks.

    Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
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  26. #76
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    Anyone know how the value of a Zenith chronometro Tipo CP 2 has changed during the past couple of weeks?

  27. #77
    Grand Master Der Amf's Avatar
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    I despair

  28. #78
    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    This thread isn't complete without a Daytona .

    But let's ignore the ceramic, we'll take my white dial 116520. A comparable watch on WatchFinder, 17950. I picked mine up 4 years ago(?) for under 7k.....

    Edit to add - chrono24 place the mid range at 16k. Am sure as mentioned there some dollar effect in that.
    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    My 116520 still holding strong, though doubt anyone is buying them at the current price! Oh and as a personal bonus, I found the papers for said watch after 'misplacing them'. Result!
    Well I thought it was time for a mild bump of this thread, despite the detractors!

    So Watchfinder, their prices for the white 116520 have actually gone up! Now at 20-22k for comparable. Chrono24 mid price still hovers at 16k. No idea of course if any are actually being sold at these prices...

  29. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alasdairmc View Post
    Black Bay GMT at 3516
    Seamaster 300 Chrono at 2301
    North Flag bracelet 2222
    Eterna Heritage Military 1939 954
    Ranger on leather 1599

    Just posting the ones I can find on Chrono24 and then will post back in future to see how much theyve moved.

    I think the BB GMT is way overpriced

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Almost three months later, and prices are now:

    BB GMT - 3505
    Seamaster - 2592
    North Flag - 2356
    Eterna - 962
    Ranger - 1628

    Given that they are not all moving in the same direction, this isnt solely down to currency revaluation.

    The watches I expect to lose money on are my Steinhart and a Waldhoff from Kickstarter. I would doubt it was possible to make money from a Kickstarter watch - can anyone refute that?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  30. #80
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    Hol up...3500 for a Tudor GMT?! I need to find those buyers to sell them some stuff....

  31. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Hol up...3500 for a Tudor GMT?! I need to find those buyers to sell them some stuff....
    As stated previously I reckon its the way the watch has been classed. Their watch data allows for multiple instances of the same model so clearly Ive picked a relatively niche one.


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  32. #82
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    What we seem to have experienced - in the UK anyway - is a wide variety of financial experience due to the Virus. To take a broad brush approach, the reasonably well paid have continued in employment but working from home, thus receiving their normal incomes but saving a fortune on commuting costs, petrol, eating out, stupidly expensive coffees etc. Some slightly less well off people have been furloughed, so having a reduction in income, but also making savings. Sadly the poorest have had a worse time, losing their jobs, in zero hour contracts so losing income etc. So the upshot of this is that whilst the economy is going to take a huge hit, the participants in the ludicrously expensive watch market will have been less affected than most, so people's investments may not take the hit they feared.

  33. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrGrumpy View Post
    What we seem to have experienced - in the UK anyway - is a wide variety of financial experience due to the Virus. To take a broad brush approach, the reasonably well paid have continued in employment but working from home, thus receiving their normal incomes but saving a fortune on commuting costs, petrol, eating out, stupidly expensive coffees etc. Some slightly less well off people have been furloughed, so having a reduction in income, but also making savings. Sadly the poorest have had a worse time, losing their jobs, in zero hour contracts so losing income etc. So the upshot of this is that whilst the economy is going to take a huge hit, the participants in the ludicrously expensive watch market will have been less affected than most, so people's investments may not take the hit they feared.
    A lot of businesses are going to go to the wall when the emergency funding dries up. Business owners as well as employees are going to suffer. Hope I'm overstating but I can see the economy tanking come October.

    Watch prices have been driven by one thing - the prospect of a profit. It only takes a change from (say) 51/49 believing prices will rise to 49/51 and doubt creeps in to those buying only to sell on. Not saying it will happen suddenly but I just don't see how a shock to the world economy of this size won't dampen demand for luxury goods.
    Last edited by David_D; 21st June 2020 at 15:29.

  34. #84
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    Three months on the "price collapse" Cassandras seem to have called-it too soon. Market seems pretty small-"c"-conservative at the mo' - guessing people are mostly sitting on assets until they know how things are going. Now if there's a second wave to COVID and no worthwhile trade agreements signed for Brexit and we all start paying duty on European imports - well, even then, could go either way...

    Interesting times.

  35. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by earlofsodbury View Post

    Interesting times.
    Hmmm...yes. I never realized quite how good boring times were!!

  36. #86
    Master earlofsodbury's Avatar
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    New watch sales trends since 2016 to May 2020 from WatchPro:


  37. #87
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    If that graph represented Rolex sales, you could watch it soar back to life now. Main agents in the UK appear to have seen "the taps turned on," as one put it, enjoying healthy deliveries of very saleable models. They have done tremendous business this last week and this is consistent with everything I have seen myself. Demand for this one brand generally has remained as strong as ever or even increased with lockdown, as sourcing watches became harder.
    Last edited by Haywood_Milton; 22nd June 2020 at 18:06.

  38. #88
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haywood_Milton View Post
    If that graph represented Rolex sales, you could watch it soar back to life now. Main agents in the UK appear to have seen "the taps turned on," as one put it, enjoying healthy deliveries of very saleable models. They have been done tremendous business this week and this is consistent with everything I have seen. Demand for this one brand generally has remained as strong as ever or even increased with lockdown, as sourcing watches became harder.
    There is an age old saying ----- Quality always sells.

  39. #89
    Master earlofsodbury's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haywood_Milton View Post
    ... Demand for this one brand generally has remained as strong as ever or even increased with lockdown...
    I wondered when the various threads like this appeared whether the suddenly-changed circumstances would actually stimulate demand on a "thing-I-like-may-become-unobtainable-must-buy-now" basis. Certainly, a market flooded with affordable Subs &c seems to have conspicuously failed to materialise!

    Interesting to see from the graph that the Brexit vote precipitated a sudden drop, which was soon compensated for by the bounceback, albeit the overall trend is gentle decline.

  40. #90
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    Still in a furlough honeymoon period. If mass unemployment comes to materialise as many suspect, then the true market impact will be seen. I'd say November will be the first long-term sign. Retail and tourism sectors are teetering.

    Sent from my CLT-L09 using Tapatalk

  41. #91
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    It does defy logic that a discretionary luxury item is so resistant to the economy tanking.

    My hulk is 12.7 according to Chrono24 3 months ago and still 12.7 today.

    Seems as though dealers are holding asking prices firm and no fire sales for liquidity etc. Who knows what the next 12 months will bring, could some form of economic reality catch up and prices drop, or prices go up further with people retaining jobs, saving more money and Rolex supply still constrained. Perhaps prices just staying the same. I have no idea.


  42. #92
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    Anyone who bought after 2015 will be underwater once furlough ends and 10,000s of P45s start dropping onto doormats

  43. #93
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    If you search eBay (wristwatches) for “Rolex 2020” you get a lot of hits. Loads of June ones but February and March too.

    Whether statistically that’s more that you’d normally see, I’m not sure, but it may be people have decided to (try to) cash in now ahead of who knows what.

  44. #94
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    Quote Originally Posted by David_D View Post
    If you search eBay (wristwatches) for “Rolex 2020” you get a lot of hits. Loads of June ones but February and March too.

    Whether statistically that’s more that you’d normally see, I’m not sure, but it may be people have decided to (try to) cash in now ahead of who knows what.
    Have noticed the same. A huge amount of June watches which is a shame. Still not ending up in the hands of those who really want them!

    Sent from my SM-N950F using Tapatalk

  45. #95
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    Visited my local town for the first time in months today and window-shopped one of the posh jewellers. They had a magnificently vulgar huge Gold Breitling (with moon-phase etc - the sort of thing designed for footballers) reduced from 21k to 10.5k. It was such a bargain, I nearly bought it (well, if it had been 105 I might). Maybe the footballer's watch market is slowing down....all the Rolex's seemed to be at their previous price though!

  46. #96
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    "Global growth is projected at -4.9 percent in 2020, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast."

    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/...UpdateJune2020


    But guess which one country has a positive projection? Yup, China! One for the conspiracy theorists there.

    EDIT: The UK forecast is -10.2% so I would be very surprised if there wasn't some impact on the market for luxury goods!

    EDIT2: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53195980

    "The owner of some of the UK's biggest shopping centres, Intu, has called in administrators.
    The firm, which owns the Trafford Centre, the Lakeside complex, and Braehead, said earlier it had not reached an agreement in financial restructuring talks with its lenders."
    Last edited by David_D; 26th June 2020 at 15:59.

  47. #97
    Grand Master Mr Curta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Curta View Post
    Nominate Tintin as it's my watch thats worth the most, although I don't think that it will be in the same league as many.



    I bought it for less than retail back when they were unloved, and have no intention to sell.
    One year on and it's not going so well.

    Don't just do something, sit there. - TNH

  48. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Curta View Post
    One year on and it's not going so well.

    That is bonkers.


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  49. #99
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    I purchased my watches to wear and really am not concerned with value, but then my collection is small and not very expensive, at least compared to luxury watches standards.

  50. #100
    Heres mine (not that Id ever sell but Ive had offers that back up the graph)


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