Originally Posted by Tooks
Here you go.
US doctors having 'remarkable' success with ventilator alternatives
https://www.uchicagomedicine.org/for...JUB5BHq5w16pfc
Some preliminary news from South Korean researchers indicating antibodies DO provide immunity (for a while at least - the key is how long) and that the supposed 'reinfected' patients (most likely reactivated) could not reinfect others
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/south-...ry?id=70312111
And finally, today's stats say over 800 dead with 711 in England alone. Sounds terrible right? We aren't getting better?
Well the graph below shows deaths reported by day and the day they actually happened. Of the 711 English deaths reported for yesterday only 105 were actually reported as having died yesterday which is among the lowest daily reported 'real time' deaths for some time. I know more deaths will have happened yesterday that will get reported in future but comparing like for like daily reported deaths the day after they happen is showing a downward trend
This is a graph of UK hospital deaths by days reported, from Mar 14th to the 813 reported today, smoothed to a trend using a 7-day moving average:
The peak is the average for the period Apr 7 - Apr 13 inclusive. So the peak of transmission of infection probably occurred in the first week of April.
If you want to look at all the actual daily figures
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...-daily-deaths/
For some reason today included a lot of deaths that happened some time ago.
Last edited by TBKBABAB; 25th April 2020 at 19:30.
It is quite remarkable how much things have changed in the last week or so. Today felt just like a normal Saturday when out. Many papers are showing shots of motorways at the same time of day comparing early-lockdown with now, and it's pretty dramatic. I think it's a combination of things: void of authority in government (a rotation of little-known ministers on the defensive re PPE rather than people of substance hammering the purpose of lockdown); media coverage of other countries doing it differently and not manifestly worse; lack of police manpower to do very much to stop it, along with ambiguity of exactly what's allowed (you can't drive to exercise / yes you can / no you can't / yes you can, but not far etc etc); the suggestion that we're past the peak; the weather. Plus there's a tipping point: you see reports of more and more people going out, so you think, sod this, I'm going out too. It certainly feels in the last few days as if people have collectively decided to ignore the formal position - and it's making the government look very feckless.
We started a proper lockdown on 23 March. I can’t understand how peak infection could be between 1-2 weeks after the thing that’s proven to prevent the virus spreading started. I would have thought the final week before lockdown was the peak transmission/infection period.
Might have something to do with the BBC and other news channels hammering the message about ending the lockdown.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
My understanding was it was peak deaths occurred on 8th April meaning transmissions were declining even before lockdown (I guess as others pointed out that was because people were self regulating somewhat at that time anyway - possibly a good sign for how we might manage a break out of lockdown). there were some pieces on it that I linked to in one of the Covid threads in the Bear Pit.
True, I think it takes longer from infection to death than I implied in my comment. Apologies.
The centre date of the peak in the graph is April 10th, so if the lockdown measures are the cause of the apparent decline in reported deaths from that date then the lag from infection to reported death for the minority who don't survive looks like about 18 days on average; perhaps that's realistic.
I cycled through Ashby today; it looked a lot like a typical Saturday on the high street. I also noticed a lot more traffic on the brief stretch of A road that I pedalled along.
One thing that was emphasised before the lockdown started was that the timing of the measures was important, because they are only sustainable at maximum effect for so long. That has been interpreted by some as a slowness to react, but your observation and my experience reinforce my opinion that it was careful, deliberate and correct.
Today's reported deaths included people who died as far back as 6th april (see my earlier excel). I read somewhere that the day when deaths peaked was 8th April in London and 10th elsewhere. Again, this is different to what gets reported daily due to lag in reporting but I will reattach the excel. Look at the bottom part which shows the day the deaths happened and what day they were reported and we see the 8th to 12th were particularly bad. So infections were already decreasing prior to lockdown and lockdown itself will have speed up the decrease. The daily death rate is a misnomer due to the fact only a very small percentage of the deaths reported daily actually occurred within the previous 24 hours. Likewise new infections isn't representative of the situation as the number is seayed by number of tests. Best way would be if we could understand percentage of tests being positive (as per the data Italy shares) as that would be a good indicator of decline or not
Last edited by ryanb741; 26th April 2020 at 01:10.
The figures for tests are published here https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi...for-the-public
everyday so you could work out the percentage testing positive, not sure where you can find the previous days figures.
And yesterday’s reported deaths included deaths going back to the 11th March
Last edited by TBKBABAB; 26th April 2020 at 07:20.
Thanks. Good find :)The figures for tests are published here https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavi...for-the-public
everyday so you could work out the percentage testing positive, not sure where you can find the previous days figures.
And yesterday’s reported deaths included deaths going back to the 11th March
Ah here you go. Article from the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford. So one would assume a bonafide source.
Peak UK deaths was actually 4th April for London and 8th April for rest of UK. Deaths yesterday are 20.5% lower than a week ago.
https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/covid-...te-24th-april/
It will be interesting to see if the rate starts to creep up again in two to three weeks time, wIth so many people arbitrarily deciding that social distancing doesn't really apply to them during the past few days. Yesterday I saw groups of kids playing football together in the park and a group of mums and tots strolling along next to each other. Images from London seemed to indicate that there were many outside simply to relax or sightsee rather than exercise.
Don't just do something, sit there. - TNH
Yep I live in West London and it was almost like a normal sunny day with people everywhere. That being said most people were wearing masks so transmission rates will be lowered by that.
Find it rather frustrating that people would throw away 5 weeks of tough restrictions basically because they have got
bored with it. Unless there is something forthcoming this week about actually lifting restrictions, which I doubt, ‘someone’ needs to have a strong word.
Am sure most of these people are out clapping on Thursdays as well but need to think why they are doing it.
I’m working away atm and reading this thread I can’t believe people are starting to become lax in the guidelines set out, if they carry on like this thread is making out then I can’t see any way the government can even think about lifting the restrictions...
Selfish very selfish...
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I got called into work yesterday, and I have to admit it did feel like there were more people ‘out and about’ (for legitimate reasons I’m sure) than I’ve noticed in the last 4 weeks.
Perhaps the ‘fear’ is subsiding in people, or they’re at the point where they really need to go out and do some important things that they’ve been putting off for a month, but I agree it’s noticeable.
However, I’ve got siblings who live in London (Central and North) and they mentioned last night that there’s always been a level of activity locally, as you’d expect being so densely populated, so didn’t feel like it was starting to fall apart.
The coming days/weeks will tell I suppose, but as this is the positive thread, I’m still greatly encouraged by the general adherence to the stay at home request, and people’s behaviour when they do leave home.
I live in Central/North London and I would say yesterday there were a lot more people around than previous weekends, maybe 30-50% of the normal numbers of people for that area.
In fairness most of them were distancing but in the huge queues for the various larger supermarkets which extended for 100m+ most of the time!
Also I noticed that at least half of the many restaurants/coffee shops near me seemed to be open for takeaway or delivery only of course but obviously that means people are going to them and staff are there working.
I don’t see a flouting of the rules as such more that now people realise this is going on for some time, they are utilising them more fully than they were 4 weeks ago.
i think people are starting to get peed off with how the lockdown is being handled ,it seems that i cant go out in my car or on my motorbike for a ride to the countryside ( having no contact with anyone ) but its now ok for people to flock to B&Q and other DIY stores to intermingle.
* i live in the west midlands where obviously gyms are shut (to stop virus spread) but the chances of getting mugged go up about 60% by exercising /walking in the local area :)
Last edited by pugster; 26th April 2020 at 10:21.
The peak that was ‘possible’ has not happened but a slow gradual plateau has been achieved, the return to routine and selective surgery will increase the workload and subtle management of social distancing will manage the flow.
Relax its just a small period of life that has been disrupted and normality will return, on the inside everyone is doing the best they can to mitigate and produce the best result for all, it might not always seem like that but it is true.
As you sit in your lovely homes with WiFi and Netflix and hot and cold water and fresh food for a few weeks maybe remind yourself how the lads coped in the trenches years ago or more recently sat in a PB for 6 months in Afghanistan!
If you have underlying health conditions and are over 65 you probably wont see daylight till 2021 the rest of us just need to be patient and realise ‘you cant change the wind so get comfortable leaning into it’
RIAC
Agree that there is more traffic and more people around generally, but they are behaving very differently to before this started. The first phase of this marathon seems to have been completed - flattening the curve and ensuring the NHS isn't overwhelmed. So I don't really see the slight relaxation as a concern, in fact a gentle informal relaxation may be better than a sharper official 'now you can do this' at which point everyone will then do 'this' just because they can. I think we have to bear in mind that nobody is pretending we can stop people getting the virus over the next few months and it's a case of managing who gets it and when.
Also we have been subject to some very misleading and inaccurate reporting regarding numbers and deaths.
Even the Guardian joins in
Headline 25-4-20:
Number of people to die of Covid-19 in UK hospitals passes 20,000
Of course the TRUE fact is the above figure should read:
died in UK hospitals after testing positive for coronavirus
The figures we have been fed have nothing to do with deaths actually attributed to Covid. Surely with the clout of a Government they should have access to figures that show the TRUE or at least most likely Death figures that were actually caused by the virus.
Until (or if ever) we know as accurately as possible we wont know if its any more or less dangerous than annual flu phases in the uk
The Government/ONS and NHS publish a lot of very detailed information as mentioned in this thread although there is a time lag on some. You have to wait for ONS figures to find the numbers where Covid-19 is mentioned on the death certificate,
as we know those with underlining health issue are more vulnerable so technically it may only be a factor but it’s the same with the Flu and we have already passed the average number of deaths per year in the U.K. from Flu.
Agree that the figures we're being presented on a daily basis are wildly inaccurate and virtually meaningless. So why publish them? To encourage people to comply with the lockdown probably.
With regard to flu, I suspect that if as much resource had been thrown at testing and recording everyone who died for that disease, the figures would be a LOT higher. We're not comparing apples with apples. More often than not, the cause of death will be listed as the primary causal underlying condition.
I agree, and sort of underpins that the government taking the advice of medical experts, rather than the media. Perhaps in order to minimise “lockdown fatigue”. Which I am suffering from.
I also read somewhere that the total number of deaths reported in the UK over last 12 weeks was about 10k over the average period during the previous 5 year. It also went on to say that it was still lower that in 2000.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
The only official figures are upto the 10th April when it was about 8,000 above the 5 year average and just over 6,000
of those were confirmed Covid 19 deaths.
1999/2000 was a major Flu epidemic but less people died than have already died of Covid19 plus
the Flu is seasonal Covid19 doesn’t seem to be.
Well if they died in hospital, they might have an inkling what caused their death don't you think.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
edited...wrong thread!
Last edited by mondie; 26th April 2020 at 18:58.
Promising news thread, remember!?
Clearly no one has a clue about the extent of this issue!
I read an FT article earlier today but didn’t see any mention of excess of 40,000.
And too many experts/scientists being given airtime for their theories which are all different because they don’t
have any real facts, as you say we will only have a clearer picture of infection rate when the results of the random
20,000 antibody tests are in.
Oops, yes, too many threads
This was in Ryan's link earlier, but I thought I'd post on a reply as well. It shows COVID-19 deaths by date of death instead of date reported for England only
https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistic...-daily-deaths/
post a pic
This thread seemed like the best place for a link to this piece (UK focus):
https://theconversation.com/coronavi...imistic-137032
It reads like a pro Govt rah, rah piece to be honest, the author exhorts us to look at the bigger picture and not to seek their accountability or be critical but it is precisely when you look at the bigger picture ie globally, see NZ, Germany or S.Korea for example and how well they and others dealt with the crisis by acting early, quickly and decisively and following the WHO advice it just serves to show up why we are where we are.
Last edited by Passenger; 27th April 2020 at 14:18.
Well, this just seems like an Anti Gov rant.Surely looking at the bigger picture might be a more logical start.
However if you want to make comparisons - compare Ireland with NZ - both islands and with similar populations. Or Germany and France - given they share a long border and have similar infrastructure and demographics.
However it’s all meaningless unless you actually compare the methods used in order to classify Covid 19 deaths, because that’s the only thing that’s actually matters. For example China with it 1b population, being at the very forefront for the inflection ONLY having 84k confirmed cases and ONLY having 4.5k deaths. Which is amazing don’t you think, when compared with a UK pop of 65m, and it’s 153k confirmed cases and 20k+ deaths.
Perhaps we will get a much better idea when these countries publish actual death rates and compare them with the previous 5 years averages.
As long as people want to make political capital out of death rates in order to win some sort of bragging rights, then some governments will deliberately suppress the true.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
FWIW the author is a Professor of Biology at the St Andrews; 'Disclosure statement: Ian Boyd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.' etc
I made no mention of China, deliberately so.Well, this just seems like an Anti Gov rant.
However if you want to make comparisons - compare Ireland with NZ - both islands and with similar populations. Or Germany and France - given they share a long border and have similar infrastructure and demographics.
However it’s all meaningless unless you actually compare the methods used in order to classify Covid 19 deaths, because that’s the only thing that’s actually matters. For example China with it 1b population, being at the very forefront for the inflection ONLY having 84k confirmed cases and ONLY having 4.5k deaths. Which is amazing don’t you think, when compared with a UK pop of 65m, and it’s 153k confirmed cases and 20k+ deaths.
Perhaps we will get a much better idea when these countries publish actual death rates and compare them with the previous 5 years averages.
As long as people want to make political capital out of death rates in order to win some sort of bragging rights, then some governments will deliberately suppress the true.
I shall leave you to your uncritical happy thoughts thread.
Last edited by Passenger; 27th April 2020 at 16:15.
Another one of these methinks
"Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."
'Populism, the last refuge of a Tory scoundrel'.
A French clinical evaluation has indicated that Tocilizumab has a 'significantly' improved clinical outcomes for patients with moderate or severe COVID pneumonia. What I like about this evaluation is that it was done against a control group who recieved standard care. What I don't like is the fact they neglected to define what 'significant' means however the validity of the trial and personnel is not up for question. Hopefully the peer reviewed publication will clarify a bit better. how much better the outcomes were.
https://www.aphp.fr/contenu/tocilizu...evere-covid-19
Thank you for bringing the thread back on track despite the usual attempts at hijack by the tag team above.
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Last edited by Ruggertech; 27th April 2020 at 17:23.
The usual culprits who revel in negativity and allow their political bias to cloud any semblance of objectivity could do us all a favour and piss off onto the other Covid 19 threads to moan with their mates.
But why not? You seem happy to make comparisons with other countries, but why not China.
As for being critical, I would rather wait until all this is over before pointing the finger. Clearly you don’t.
Whoever does not know how to hit the nail on the head should be asked not to hit it at all.
Friedrich Nietzsche
Isn't it a bit early for you?
'Against stupidity, the gods themselves struggle in vain' - Schiller.
Agreed. It’s a positive news thread. Other threads are available for bickering and / or negativity.
Rolex watch sales threads? Where are the Covid19 bickering threads, I just enjoy reading a good old bitter argument between strangers on the internet whilst I’m on the toilet.
Just wait for the wonders of the fabled Bear Pit.
+1.....Bear Pit’s the pile of shit that attracts the hardcore flies.
Promising news ... Oxford University update ... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/27/w...e-oxford.html?
"Well they would say that ... wouldn't they!"
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