Reply With QuoteI don't know but Heywood has dropped the price on his BLRO's so things must be getting really serious.
The virus is now obviously getting serious and I imagine is going to cause major problems for many individuals and companies financially.
Will owners start selling off to raise money ? could the market become flooded ? will ADs be able to move there stock as easily ? will prices crash ?
I don't know but Heywood has dropped the price on his BLRO's so things must be getting really serious.
People who can afford high end watches will be the last to feel the pinch and start selling their belongings.
This is utter nonsense, as anyone who lived through 2008 can attest. One of the earliest signs I saw in early 2007 (and I was a Credit Derivatives broker at that time) was a flood of cheap Submariners (helped by GBPUSD at 2.00+) from Florida and later California.Originally Posted by xellos99
As assets unwind, jobs get lost and mortgages still need to be paid. Unwinding luxury watches (and arguably second cars) are relatively liquid and free up emergency cash. Selling second-homes, luxury cars/boats etc. and finally primary homes is much a more illiquid affair.
People aren't travelling, holidays aren't being booked, people are being told not to go to pubs and restaurants or generally socialise. Businesses will fail and staff will loose their jobs and it is a genuine worry for a aweful lot of people. The bills still need to be paid and families still need to keep warm and eat and all of that comes ahead of enjoying the luxury trinket on your wrist. People will sell their watches to free up needed cash, but unfortunately if a lot of people do it at the same time prices will fall.
There will always be those with deep pockets who are unaffected by all of this, but perhaps the numbers in that bracket will fall. As sad as it is, I think it is inevitable that the Watch market will struggle in the coming months.
That said, I don't think anyone will be getting a Ceramic Daytona any quicker
Ill have to pop a poster in the Brother in laws pub asking if anyone wants to sell their Rolex Subs.
Oh hang on,no one will be in the pub.......bolx!.
Ill have to stick to the wtb section here,or perhaps another section called "desperate for sale" ,all low ball offers considered.
I could buy a Rolex etc but I can't afford one so if I had bought one I would more than likely be thinking of selling it.
Might be coincidence but seems to be a raft of nice Rolex popping up in SC over the last 10 days or so
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Having £10-15k tied up in a watch may not seem to sensible in the coming months.
It will affect all who live on the edge with a purchased image.
It will not affect prices in the long term but in the short term on the second hand market yes if someone needs cash fast
IMHO
Whilst i agree with the majority of these statements
Even deep pockets will suffer especially business owners and retired folks with portfolios attached to the stock market
Maybe it will make people paying over the odds for a have too watch car etc have second thoughts long term
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
I see Watchmaster are discounting..
Last edited by joe narvey; 17th March 2020 at 18:54.
Just the beginning
Watchfinder are constantly having sales, considering their higher prices I expect trouble ahead for them.
Not for new watch prices. That would be the ultimate suicide note for luxury watch manufacturers, who have built up their prices over the years on the veblen factor.
They would much rather ride out the storm for 2-3 years, rather than start slashing prices to maintain volume sales.
For used watches though, apart from the genuinely very rare, like the Comex Rolex .............................................hmm!
When Chrono 24 have hundreds of the new Daytona (not a rare watch) for sale ..............................................hmm!
Mitch
Last edited by Mitch; 18th March 2020 at 02:25.
I seem to remember Rolex reducing prices in the past at one point
People aren't travelling, holidays aren't being booked, people are being told not to go to pubs and restaurants or generally socialise. Businesses will fail and staff will loose their jobs and it is a genuine worry for a aweful lot of people. The bills still need to be paid and families still need to keep warm and eat and all of that comes ahead of enjoying the luxury trinket on your wrist. People will sell their watches to free up needed cash, but unfortunately if a lot of people do it at the same time prices will fall.
There will always be those with deep pockets who are unaffected by all of this, but perhaps the numbers in that bracket will fall. As sad as it is, I think it is inevitable that the Watch market will struggle in the coming months.
That said, I don't think anyone will be getting a Ceramic Daytona any quicker
I think that's an accurate assessment, although - the number of people trying to sell top-end watches will not be easily matched to the numbers looking to buy (unless there is a significant reduction on the 'current' prices).
Rolex have closed its manufacturing facilities, so the slowly meeting of demand will be all but gone. I’m sure people can still visit their AD if aDaytona etc. Was being offered.
I’m sure some AD’s will be harder hit and may well feel the need to have big sales, so we will see how it plays out over the next 6-12 months.
It's just a matter of time...
As many of us are saying; Dealer still want to sell pieces, well people are now investing their money in something else. It a luxury thing so not that important. If you are a billionaire you wil probably not care, but also have something else on your mind.
They say that Rolex is closing their doors. I don't understand, I think its gossip, I mean it is possible and likely to be so. But no one has info on the watch manufacturers, right? Rolex is the one and only who is so anti-PR anti-disclosing stuff. I can't believe we know this from Rolex...
That being said, I think it's normal that they close the doors, but would be better if they produce more Daytona's/GMT's etc. haha
Although Bucherer in Germany have just announced they're closing their stores and I imagine it's only a matter of time before ADs follow suit.
What are you on about. Rolex have confirmed they are closing for two weeks.
Two weeks for start.
The demand will dry up even quicker in the next month IMO.
That's assuming they can ride out the storm. No idea what their liquidity is or reserves are, but 2 to 3 years is a long time for any business.
Sent from my SM-A105FN using Tapatalk
Switzerland is in lock down, only essential business are to remain open. Hence why Rolex HQ is closed.
Historically whenever we have had a economic slowdown/recession luxury goods get hammered.This time will be no different. Luxury goods are the first thing people stop buying and people will start to sell luxury watches soon enough (similar to previous recessions)
I think we may see Rolex available on 0% finance again if demand isn’t as crazy as it has been, whether finance will be so readily available I guess is another thing.
Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
I suppose others could do as Omega have and sell their watches direct from their website also?
Higher margins, with the luxury buying experience being the compromise?
Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app
If so, it'll be a very small bright spot in a miserable and, for some, tragic world catastrophe.
Don't wish their employees any harm but I wouldn't shed a tear if Watchfinder went under. (I know it's owned by Richemont but you know what I mean.)
They were sitting on £39m of stock at last 31 March. A 15% stock write-down would wipe out a year's profits.
But £10-15k in the stock market would be far worse , out of the two I’d take a watch everyday of the week.
The unified Rolex in the window thread has had a few interesting finds over the past couple of days. Are dealers starting to unload the stock they told everyone (on lists) they didn't have?
I would like to see Richemont would go down. With their kind of thinking, expecting quarterly results, they got into the wrong business. They have ruined some of my beloved brands.
I think over time they and many others will come down in price just to stay afloat
My guess is either Rolex themselves or ADs will try and control the market and keep the grey price of certain models above retail, making them instantly sellable. I think the Daytona/Pepsi/Hulk/SkyD (blue) won’t make shop windows in the UK and will command a much smaller premium than we have seen in 2018-2020, but still a premium over retail. The rest of the models which have been hit will start appearing Exp2/Sub ND/DJ41 (blue) etc.
Who knows though I might be way off!
What difference would it make to Rolex? Rolex dont make more money if someone sells a Daytona at 10k above retail price so all Rolex need do is release more watches, I am sure they are making a huge profit even though many of their watches are not easily available so if shop windows were suddenly full of Rolex, they would sell and Rolex would still make money.
Other brands may be different but then other brands can be found at discount or easy to haggle.
Not really, get your timing right and into the right stocks and you can easily be sitting on double that in 2 or 3 years time
Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
It's all about "halo products". Rolex don't make the extra 10k on the Daytona, but the image rubs off on all their other watches. DJ, OP, etc have all had waiting lists over the last year when previously they were sold at a discount. That's why it's in Rolex's interest for the Daytone to keep selling over list price.
Companies are now been close down because of the virus i guess so
10-15k gets you an 1 - 1.5 acres of agricultural land. I think I’d prefer that in the current climate than a watch or some shares. A patch big enough to grow enough food a family would be ideal.
Maybe when this is over people will reevaluate what’s important to them.
Many high-end watches are bought on credit and many people on high salaries live to their means...
It is inevitable at this point that prices will crash - what else can happen ?
If we get to that stage, I don’t think your property rights on that patch of land counts for much...
£15k investments spread across the markets 3 weeks ago will be currently worth £11-11.5k
A Daytona for example wouldn’t have dropped by the same percentage I would argue.
We are talking about investments already held , not jumping in now.
Not shedding a tear that any business goes under is, frankly, a sad statement to make. Profitable companies pay tax, employees also pay tax and suppliers feed off them. To not shed a tear because you do not like their selling price is exceedingly self centred. The world does not revolve around you and your hobby.
Posting Permissions
