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I'd not be feeling too great if I had lumped £20k+ on a Daytona or £60k+ on a Nautilus that's for sure. Interesting times ahead though for sure.
Strange times, and think there’s going to be a big correction in the watch market for those ‘bubble’ watches, and this will ripple down.
There’s always going to be wealthy people with cash to buy nice watches, but massive falls on the stock market is going to leave spivs, traders and greys in a tricky situation. After all if you’ve just lost a load of dosh on your pension/company share scheme/tracker/private shares etc., you’re going to think twice about lumping over £20k on a ceramic Daytona, especially when there is a risk that the price will fall rather than rise.
My thoughts are the PP and Rolex will take a dive on the stuff that’s trading over well over list.
Given this, all those Tudors previously considered ‘fantastic value’ at £3k+ (they would have a grand 10 years ago if they have been for sale), and nobody’s going to pay list for them, causing second hand values to fall.
£4K+ for a bog standard seamaster and £6k for a PO - haha haha
It will be useful to post any correction to prices you see at greys, SC, other fora, if prices start to fall.
I'd not be feeling too great if I had lumped £20k+ on a Daytona or £60k+ on a Nautilus that's for sure. Interesting times ahead though for sure.
I think we are seeing some signs already on SC. Some watches are just not selling (2 Tudor GMTs), and I've noticed a few Rolex sports being put up I suspect to lock in gains. Given watches have been considered investments these last few years - I'm sure the more savvy amongst us must be mulling selling their watches and waiting to buy stocks instead!
On the other hand we have seen in previous financial scares, investors putting their money into tangible stuff like classic cars and watches.
So may go the other way
It would be nice to see a significant correction and to lose at least some of the speculators.
I won't be selling any watches in the short term. However, I'm confident the market will recover towards the end of year.
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Never seen bubble prices inflate further during a stock market crash.Originally Posted by Neil
I would say prices can rise sometime AFTER the crash and as stuff is cheaper and the economy starts to recover. Trouble is asset prices have not started to deflate yet, as that takes time to liquidate.
Can’t see rational people investing in overpriced wine, classic cars, watches etc. at the moment.
And why buy now when you know it will be cheaper a few months down the line
Now is clearly not the time to sell unless you absolutely have to... better to hold on and see how things develop - it may be all sorted in 3 months, in which case it will just be a blip, and if it takes longer, the economic fallout will be much more pronounced.... nobody knows at the moment and thus should not take rash action.
Personally I might buy a few watches I wouldn’t have bought if I can get them at great prices - I have enough sports Rolex, so thinking Patek, AP and VC or maybe some white gold or platinum... hoping for bargains!
I'm selling a few watches for a couple reasons, one to get the overall collection down which is long overdue, and two to have some cash for other watches that might come up at a decent price..
Although the Tudor GMT I had for sale on SC sold pretty quickly on Watchuseek for £100 more than my asking price here and there was a queue to buy it (overseas buyers). So I think the tz-uk market isn't necessarily representative.
Both my Rolex on the Chrono24 app have shot up in the last couple of days around £600 so who knows. Irrelevant anyhow as I won’t be moving on.
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What about genuine watch enthusiasts who have paid a lot of money for their watches? It will affect them too.
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
My watches are holding a damned sight better than the stocks I dumped a couple of weeks ago!! I am holding tight and hoping to grab some bargains...
Your right, I just looked at my collection in the Chrono24 app and my Rolex has gone up? Normally Omega are a bit behind them so my vintage Speedies might show a increase soon..
Its all relative though and you have to sell at those prices to make it reality.
With a bit of luck it’ll take all grey dealers under and the likes of Goldsmiths might show a bit more respect to buyers instead of looking down they’re noses at them
Fast forward 4 weeks:
FT ceramic daytona, trade value 14k or 200 toilet rolls or 6 gallons of antibacterial hand sanitizer
I only use the app to give me an idea of the market. The prices they give you are more retail in the grey market.
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Ch24 is useful for monitoring trends in pricing but actual values not so much - their pricing is always on the high side
Last edited by RustyBin5; 14th March 2020 at 13:36.
Watches, jewellery, krugerrands, gold. All are real tangible items. Ask yourself why people in real stress (war, not this self-inflicted panic attack caused by media about hoarding etc) trust these objects. And, why sell? Only when you need the money I suppose. In all other cases: hang on to it.
Good post, panic selling induces panic selling.
3 things for me:-
I never conflate my hobby with investing.
I'm not planning on selling any watches at the moment.
I might buy some and I'll be pleased if I can do that on a falling market, but I might just buy anyway.
I agree completely, Rusty. I put a few of my watches into their collection valuer and thought the values were incredibly optimistic...
Simon
Whilst I can understand the sentiment, there are more pressing matters to worry about than watches.
The international travel industry is taking a significant hit after a couple of months, ratchet that up a gear in the next three and I think we will see a significant domino effect. Combine with high street businesses who depend on footfall suffering and I can see a hefty global recession on the horizon.
I was about to pull the trigger on either a DJ or a BB58 but my cash is staying firmly in the bank for a few months until I see the mid-term impacts of current events.
Well I have been hanging onto these for a while now, I'm starting to get jittery I will not get the best price for them if things get worse so whats think I should do, put them back in the safe until the summer when prices will be at the highest, or list them on SC now to take advantage of the rich investors like Skyman?
I'm really not sure
Thankfully, I never buy watches or indeed cars, jewellery or other ‘luxury’ items, for any other reason than having a genuine desire to own them. I look at my watch collection and regularly ask myself which I’d sell if I absolutely had to. It’s a tough decision, as each was bought for a reason but never as an investment.
Personally, I’m relatively clueless as to what will happen to values over the coming months. I’d quite like to see some of the massively inflated prices come down, especially those grey market crazies. Who knows, I might even pick up something that’s been out of my price range previously? Either way, I’ll be hanging onto what I’ve got unless I’m absolutely forced to sell.
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Brilliant!Well I have been hanging onto these for a while now, I'm starting to get jittery I will not get the best price for them if things get worse so whats think I should do, put them back in the safe until the summer when prices will be at the highest, or list them on SC now to take advantage of the rich investors like Skyman?
I'm really not sure
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I own a watch I'm very enthusiastic about. I bought the watch because I wanted it, not because it was an entertaining way of parking my money. If its market value collapses, it won't affect me at all, because I wanted to own it, not because I wanted to sell it. As far as I'm concerned, the money is gone, just like all that money I used to spend on delicious wine, or the money other people spend on nice holidays and weddings.
Now, for people who self-identify as Genuine Watch Enthusiasts, but in reality are carried away by prevailing fashions and the possibility of making money..... Well, if you resent being stuck with a watch that's collapsed in value or gone horribly out of fashion, this is a good test of your Genuine Watch Enthusiasm, isn't it?
Still plenty of wear left in soles?Well I have been hanging onto these for a while now, I'm starting to get jittery I will not get the best price for them if things get worse so whats think I should do, put them back in the safe until the summer when prices will be at the highest, or list them on SC now to take advantage of the rich investors like Skyman?
I'm really not sure
If not could always get a couple of NATOs out of them.
It quotes my Tudor gmt as £3159 up 14% which compares to Ebay sold listings of circa £2600. On bracelet.
I have many watches,all bought because I liked and wanted them.Most have turned out to be a good Investement,but I didn't know that when I bought them otherwise I'd have bought even more of the same.
Investment isn't a dirty word,many people will be in a good infact very very good place in terms of what any returns will give for their purchases from many years ago ( a damn fine Investement).
And all the above isn't to say that some of my watch purchases weren't influenced on how watches have increased in price over the years,even in just a couple of years!.
See it as a bonus to buying the right watch at the right time if you can't stomach the word "Investement".
Where would TZ go for their discounted Omega's then? Goldsmiths?
Sincerely,
One of those who's job you're hoping evaporates.
The World will change for only a short time,once all this has settled,Man & Woman will return to default mode and once again become the self centred selfish arrogant nasty people they once were with no regard for much if anything going on outside of their micro world.
A lot like a person on a diet,they change for a short time,the next time you see them it's as if nothing ever happened!.....
Spot on. If it works out well, then fantastic and for those who have been collecting for longer than I, there’s some amazing returns on investment being seen.
As for ‘investment’ as a dirty word, I’ve absolutely no problem with it at all. In fact there has been plenty of investing carried out on my behalf. I just pay someone to do it for me, as my record isn’t that great. As will no doubt be proven, should I start selling watches!
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Yes you should start selling your Rolex Subs now whilst you can,they will only decrease in value over the next few weeks to the point where they will be worthless,with that in mind I'm prepared to make a very unwise Investement and offer you 2k for each Rolex Sub you are trying to offload at this difficult time.Spot on. If it works out well, then fantastic and for those who have been collecting for longer than I, there’s some amazing returns on investment being seen.
As for ‘investment’ as a dirty word, I’ve absolutely no problem with it at all. In fact there has been plenty of investing carried out on my behalf. I just pay someone to do it for me, as my record isn’t that great. As will no doubt be proven, should I start selling watches!
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You know it makes sense.......just do it now before it's too late,or I changed my mind.
Haha!
Err, ta for the offer but I’ll just sit it out.
And I’m a bit lacking in the Rolex Sub department! Told you I was crap at investing.
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Makes no odds to me to be honest ....
Not intrested in buying a new omega discount or not
and wouldn’t pay inflated grey dealer prices either and I’d imagine many others won’t now also
Maybe start looking for a new job ?
Sincerely hope you are right, my personal caution is driven by the (very likely) dip in the economy that logic tells me is an absolute certainty.
Unless everyone who buys Lux watches is independently wealthy and sitting on a lot of liquidity (which I don’t imagine is entirely true), then my prediction is that demand is quite likely to tail off considerably.
The international travel industry is going to take a hard kick to the balls. All supporting industries that are interlocked will also take a kick. The oil industry will take a knock.
Industries & businesses that require footfall and customer presence will take a kick once countries start locking down movement. All these businesses have supply chains, many of which rely on just-in-time replenishment.
My point here being that individual wealth is going to take a knock this year. Some immediately, some longer term.
The financial industry and services industries that support all the above will take a knock. Low interest rates, increasing defaults (commercial and consumer), less profit, less tax take at the exchequer... governments need to print money.
Anyone who’s bonuses - monthly, quarterly, yearly - are dependent on some or all of this will probably prioritise paying their mortgage, feeding their families and paying for essentials than blowing £7k on a new DJ now. Unless they are super-confident and start going out and loading up on debt while rates are low I supposed. Not sure I’d be taking out 0% credit cards and gambling on Rolex prices just yet.
That said, I can’t see Rolex dropping their prices in the short term, nor AD’s (since they do what they’re told it seems). So unless you’re buying precious metal - which at least has some intrinsic worth in the markets - you’ve got a relatively low-worth lump of stainless steel and crystal on your wrist, which in times of true hardship, has no more melt-down value than any another brand.
I’d still love a 36mm blue DJ though!
Last edited by S Works; 14th March 2020 at 16:57.
Its already making a massive change in my work as an aircraft Fueller with most flights cancelled now and or the next however long!.My cruise in three weeks is now not happening.For me it's going to be a lot more time at the gym.Sincerely hope you are right, my personal caution is driven by the (very likely) dip in the economy that logic tells me is an absolute certainty.
Unless everyone who buys Lux watches is independently wealthy and sitting on a lot of liquidity (which I don’t imagine is entirely true), then my prediction is that demand is quite likely to tail off considerably.
The international travel industry is going to take a hard kick to the balls. All supporting industries that are interlocked will also take a kick. The oil industry will take a knock.
Industries & businesses that require footfall and customer presence will take a kick once countries start locking down movement. All these businesses have supply chains, many of which rely on just-in-time replenishment.
My point here being that individual wealth is going to take a knock this year. Some immediately, some longer term.
The financial industry and services industries that support all the above will take a knock. Low interest rates, increasing defaults (commercial and consumer), less profit, less tax take at the exchequer... governments need to print money.
Anyone who’s bonuses - monthly, quarterly, yearly - are dependent on some or all of this will probably prioritise paying their mortgage, feeding their families and paying for essentials than blowing £7k on a new DJ now. Unless they are super-confident and start going out and loading up on debt while rates are low I supposed. Not sure I’d be taking out 0% credit cards and gambling on Rolex prices just yet.
That said, I can’t see Rolex dropping their prices in the short term, nor AD’s (since they do what they’re told it seems). So unless you’re buying precious metal - which at least has some intrinsic worth in the markets - you’ve got a relatively low-worth lump of stainless steel and crystal on your wrist, which in times of true hardship, has no more melt-down value than any another brand.
I’d still love a 36mm blue DJ though!
All the best to you, sincerely hope I’m wrong. Stay healthy and enjoy that gym while you can!
I wouldn't be going near any gym at present, mega Petri Dish environment.
Anything with froth in the market will come down hard and all these supposedly sought after Rolex will be hit especially hard imo
A good sign when near the top of the market is when goldsmiths sales reps “shop assistants “ have the arrogance of estate agents
Good luck to them they may need it
Infact It may be a good idea to start using the above as a bellwether for market tops in future as Rolex had a big push in the late stages of this massive bubble of inflated asset prices
I can even see a day when goldsmiths sales reps are ringing /pleading /begging for me to buy a Rolex of my choice at discount in the not too distant future 😂
Last edited by speedypro1111; 14th March 2020 at 17:37.
You may find your gym will be closed for business, “for the safety of its customers”.
On Topic: I think CV19 will drastically affect the market as POS are closed globally and smaller retailers may even struggle to recover after forced closure. Global travel will be affected until the whole world is equally infected at which time it will be pointless closing borders, there is tremendous knock on implications for spending after job and income loss. Let’s face it - capitalist society could be broken by this. Buying mechanical watches will not be peoples priority.
I know what you mean,but tbh it won't stop me going unless it closed!.Im 60 now and worked out since age 18,if I ever have caught a bug at the gym it never did enough to stop me going.Your quite correct saying and nothing I'm not aware of in terms of the potential for who knows what living on the equipment or lurking wherever!,I'm off the mind just get on with it.Can you believe as a kid I climbed trees,played outside,sometimes even on the road,swam in the canal and river,hitch hiked and voluntarily got into a car with a total stranger!!,camped out got up at the same time as the milkman for either a drink of milk or maybe an orange juice,sometimes even a yoghurt.....all for free too,oh what germ free days they were!!.
Kids are least affected by CV19. And I’m with you on getting dirty! Maybe go jogging instead?
I had an hour to kill in town yesterday morning. If you’re looking for a place to self-isolate you could do worse than Selfridges. There were a few people there, but they all had name tags.
The luxury watch room was quite a sight. I’d imagine if you approached a luxury brand and offered them list for hard to find piece today, they’d be quite pleased to see you. Or they will be if this continues long, anyway.
28 days later:
Would agree here, most ADs have used or best put, abused the current bubble that has enveloped Rolex steel alongside Patek and Audemars pieces to pretty much screw every possible Dollar, pound etc out of it to fill the coffers. This manipulation of the market has left a sour taste in many buyers, being to put it bluntly, forced to buy watches they have no interest in to secure the watch they were after and with this action many ADs, Aurum being just one have lost the respect of buyers. I wish more buyers had walked away from this treatment and not allowed this to have become such a widespread occurence. No matter how you gloss it up with pretty surrondings and some cheap champagne, sales is sales and the end result is getting your cash.
ADs have made the most of the market position in these best of times but as we now sit on the precipice of the worst of times with financial markets plunging, jobs undoubtedly being shed in the months ahead and a contagion which is nearing out of control with dire effects on population health and wealth, these same ADs who showed contempt for buyers will have the roles reversed.
That reminds me, I wonder if my Tudor Black Bay Green has turned up at Harrods yet, been waiting since October 1st, funnily enough it doesn't seem particularly vital anymore!
Here here ....I agree wholeheartedly
The only ones I feel sorry for are the ones who foolishly allowed this game to be played upon them to gain the watch they wanted
Only to soon find out it may not be worth what they thought
Good riddance to grey dealers and goldsmiths policies I say
I had an hour to kill in town yesterday morning. If you’re looking for a place to self-isolate you could do worse than Selfridges. There were a few people there, but they all had name tags.
The luxury watch room was quite a sight. I’d imagine if you approached a luxury brand and offered them list for hard to find piece today, they’d be quite pleased to see you. Or they will be if this continues long, anyway.
28 days later:
We are only just at the beginning of this and with countries now closing borders for up to a month, flights cancelled, travel restrictions in place throughout Europe and the World, Selfridge and every other store might just as well close up shop for a month because ain’t nobody buying a luxury right now when you cannot even get a loo roll in most shops!
If the death rate keeps rising and schools are closed, then the whole of the UK becomes a ghost, add that to every other country who are implementing emergency shutdown, then luxury goods are way down in priority for everyone no matter your wealth and the manufacturers, sellers etc are all going to recognise this over the coming weeks.
Problem is if people just think about themselves and stop spending the knock on effect is that everyone stops spending and we are all poorer. By stopping spending you do a shop out of money which means it lays off staff who now stop spending which means another store lays off staff who stop spending which means.....
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