Reply With QuoteSooooo.....the true test
If you were to get offered a 116500 at list price ...would you buy ?
Possibly not needing the savings now but simply just seeing the market only going one way for the foreseeable, so cashing out while the going is good.Originally Posted by LondonNeil
One model absent has been the ss sub. Been wondering why.
Sooooo.....the true test
If you were to get offered a 116500 at list price ...would you buy ?
folk selling them trying to cash out while the going is good at same time who actually wants to buy them right now
As they don't seem to be moving in sales
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Yes I would
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And it will
Andrex Hulk, nice!Swap for Rolex ?
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I remember the petrol shortages and the queues and a very slow period for car sales.folk selling them trying to cash out while the going is good at same time who actually wants to buy them right now
As they don't seem to be moving in sales
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So we pumped a ton of money into adverts and promo , slashed the prices and did a bit of 0% geared up for a busy weekend
On Monday we had done 3 i think which just about covered the cost of the adverts, we hoped for a dozen.
And I distinctly recall the morning meeting and the inquest....and a lovely old boy Brian in his 60’s piped up
“Theres no point singing to an audience with their fingers in their ears”....
Sage words...
Sometimes it does not matter how cheap stuff is, its your gut feeling that controls the urge to buy ..or not.
Personally, if I were offered one at half list price I wouldn't buy one. It'd probably be a fake!
Best Regards - Peter
I'd hate to be with you when you're on your own.
From an AD? Totally
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I cannot wait to see how many safe Queens will be found to be fakes...
or how many fakes are sat in Cash-Converters safes to never be reclaimed.
Now is also a pretty risky time to buy imo. F2f isn't a sensible option given the circumstances so we are at the mercy of a postal system that is lilely to be under all kinds of pressure (that will no doubt get worse soon). Plus, you can't just drop in to an AD or other retailer for advice now so how do you authenticate the watch?
Well I probably do agree with a lot of the comments in the thread about prices falling, market crashing, etc. But money doesn't matter at a time like this. Let's hope for good health and recovery to all.
On a positive note, with the fiscal and monetary measures being introduced we could see an extended period of hyper-inflation. Which could mean, that the £ value of your trinkets stays the same or goes up!! (JUST TRYING TO PUT A POSITIVE SPIN ON THIS!)
Well I sold a sub no date to one of the guys selling a couple of Rolex currently, back in October, so it may be coming.
Hyperinflation, value of trinkets may go up but so does the price of basics, bread, milk and mortgage interest rates.
The country basically becomes Zimbabwe, we’re currency makes you a Millionaire but it costs a million to buy some eggs! Probably not a situation anyone would wish.
Yes please
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Got an email today from Laings to tell me they are shutting up shop as of tomorrow until further notice. They’re still operating online but I’m sure this is the first of many such announcements sadly.
No because I don't want one. But if it was a Pepsi at list from an AD, yes no hesitation.
Well, at half list price I expect it would be!!
Started out with nothing. Still have most of it left.
Luxury watches cannot be valued at the moment because the financial crisis has happened so fast, you cannot rely on valuations pre-CV19. The market has not had time to find its new equilibrium.
Therefore, for those luxury watches appearing on SC with strong prices, good luck, as I think in few couple of months prices they will be a chunk lower.
Just wait until all those dealers and flippers start to panic, or at least ha e to sell to maintain cash flow.
I always struggle paying over list for anything especially as I have bad track recording of keeping stuff
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I was keen on a sd43 that I could have had for 9.5k, but I felt the market is due to change
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This is so true. At the moment banks won’t lend to new mortgage buyers in the U.K. because they can’t value houses, and so the government has called for a pause in the market. If you can’t value a house, why do we think we can value over priced steel watches, selling at over what the manufacturer charges.
It’s hard to price anything but be sure it wasn’t the price 2 months ago.
As the Western economy wasn't broken or out of balance, as in recent recessions/corrections, it's possible the economy will pick-up again quite quickly. All the more so if a COVID-19 vaccine is developed and we're not relying on 'herd immunity' or warmer summer weather. The 'Spanish Flu' killed 50M in 1919/1920 but America began the roaring '20s, driven by new technology. Also consider -
1) There will be money sloshing about from the Central Banks printing $Ts of fiat money
2) The majority of dead appear to be elderly who generally don't contribute to GDP
3) On-shoring of production drives economic growth. as China left a pariah state
4) A tech boom as money flows to Microsoft etc. for cloud computing services
6) British economy is invigorated by leaving EU shackles and trading globally.
Last edited by J J Carter; 29th March 2020 at 00:51.
We are already seeing prices come down for hot SS models . White dial daytona now in the range of 17k from 22k . I think it will go lower as disposable incomes have vanished, loosing jobs and most will be back to basic needs
You make some interesting points and I admire your optimism, but no.6 is entirely dependent on finding nations to trade with, on favourable terms to the UK at that, even before COVID this was a long shot.
Coronavirus effect on watch market, based on c24 data
https://monochrome-watches.com/the-e...ono24-numbers/
I just sold 2 speedmasters without bracelet or service history. I got pretty much what I expected regardless of CV, I then bought a used watch and paid what I expected regardless of CV. I think the biggest distinction will be with regard to those buying with investment, or "asking what it owes me" in mind, vs those who just enjoy watches.
Thanks for sharing. They clearly put some effort into writing this.
As a professional statistician I have to object to two points though mentioned in this article:
1 If there is a trigger event, like CV19, then you simply cannot declare after a mere two weeks that the trend has not changed. There are time lags, so see how that plays out. My expectation is downwards.
2 the fact that dealers have increased prices as well as other dealers decreased them is most likely foreign exchange related: both GBP and EUR, pretty much any currency other than USD took a beating, so some dealers would naturally show a price increase, but that would most likely be due to FX movements, not increased demand.
Cheers
The Mrs’ take on CV is along the lines of…’We’re all gonna die probably sooner rather than later, life’s for the living etc, so Honey, get that grail piece that you’re after because if you don't and you die, then you’ll be gutted.’.
I love her! Can't wait for the shop to re-open.
I’m astonished that some feel the economic effect will be minimum. We are losing 2-3 months of global productivity. The debts building up are eye watering and confidence is shattered....we could have another pandemic in the year and it’s clear the world can do nothing to stop it.
It’s not all doom and gloom, humans have shown all through history this is when we raise our game however business as we know it is long gone.
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Take a look at Watchfinder, Blowers etc, their stock is not flying off the shelf if at all.
Everyday more people are being laid off around the World with projected unemployment possibly hitting 60million in the US alone. If our government had not stepped in with the 80% wage guarantees, we would be off the cliff but people are still be laid off in thousands.
The watch market was already on the decline in late 2019, dropped a further 20-30% in Hong Kong at the start of the year and went Covid hit, the Far East is a ghost for sales. Transfer that now to the West and US, which was already suffering poor watch sales and Covid is now wiping out any potential growth.
Chrono are having a laugh if they think that producing figures for a two week period are reliable of a resilient market. Produce those figures in 3-6 months, which they will not be able to do because buyers know prices are dropping and dealers are trying to hold prices against the tide. Every potential buyer is thinking why buy this week when next month or next it could be 10-30% cheaper.
+2Perhaps some of us are actually worried about being able to! I fear for my bank balance if/when access is given.
See this is what I'm hoping for as well. FWIW I think the impact of this pandemic will be harsh - in a manner we've not had to cope with for several generations - and there will be a number of significant, hard-to-predict secondary consequences, good & ill. I also think that with a fair wind, the UK could be in a surprisingly good position to recover.
Unless you’ve got a load of debt that needs paying ;)
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And can keep your job ;-(
I am bemused by people referring to watches as trinkets.
Trinkets by definition are of little value. Watches have a tangible value.
There can be several reasons why someone may refer to watches as such. Without getting into details none of them are flattering. Watches can be considered ‘ornamental’ and prices may go up or down in sync with other luxury goods and sometimes independently. There are some here whose only posts are about market or watch prices or watch ‘value’ and makes one wonder why they bother posting here in the first place.
There is no question that there will be significant effects on ‘watch market’ from the current health crisis and these will be largely detrimental. How lasting they will be is anybody’s guess and the real impact and the durability of the impact will not be evident for a while. Certainly not good news for people who regard them as tangible assets even if not an investment. Nothing to celebrate or gloat about.
However this crisis will have quite a few more far reaching consequences than its impact on watch market and just hope that all here and everywhere can get away with as little ‘damage’ as possible.
Indeed - point 6) appears to be wishful thinking at best, or evidence or a victim of successful brainwashing at worst!
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You are right to point out that 'trinkets' literally implies they are of little value, when in reality they are often ludicrously expensive. But I think what people mean here is that they have no real importance, and little ultimate value, no matter how much they cost. Something that's all the more obvious at times like this - you can't take them with you as they say.
Point 6 is best left for another section of this forum, and as we well know will only cause a bad tempered argument and destroy the thread, so best to ignore it I'd suggest.
Last edited by Itsguy; 31st March 2020 at 10:00.
I think none of us are sure what will happen,hell i have seen some things go up in value? i am prepared to test the waters ,any one selling a omega flightmaster for 2K ??
Perhaps they are trinkets in the grand scheme of things, but still unusual to belittle them as such on a watch enthusiast forum.
Blowers' representative on this forum states otherwise in this thread:
https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...-of-the-market
Post #89, 1344hrs, 24.03.20:
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Jim.
It was a good article, but it feels like it needs to be a living document. As you say, we're only 2 weeks in, but also I don't think there's going to be many watches changing hands during the lockdown. Some of the online retailers are closed, and people aren't going to meet face to face for the higher value watches.
I think we'll need to get to the end of the lockdown to get the market moving again, and then some of the government support to end and the economic impact to hit home before we see any significant movement in prices. We're probably 6 months away from knowing where we're going.
pal of mine with no previous buying history was on a list for a black Sub Date at Goldsmiths for the last 6 months
he got the call yesterday ….. he's plenty of money but passed. Indicative of:-
1. the retailers desperate for cash
2. despite him easily able to afford "doesn't feel the right time" ie confidence shot
so discretionary spending on luxury goods is the first thing to be hammered in a recession & this is bigger than any previous recession ….
having said that I have asked him to see if the have a GMT available.... would still take that at list.
Though salaries jobs won’t help! Need a shop
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Although anecdotal your story I think is a perfect example... it's no longer enough to "get the call", that was just one factor making it fun to buy a hard to get watch... Even if you can easily afford it it is 1. Not a fun time to be buying watches. 2. Not a great time to display said watch, if even possible. 3. It's aura of "safe haven" investment/placement is gone.
Compounds into a weak market. The last ones to be desirable and perhaps have a 6-12 month wait (which is still borderline unreasonable) are the GMT Pepsi and the Steel Daytona. All others will be in the windows before long.
Are WoS group still calling people then? I thought all their shops were closed
Yes - he got the call yesterday
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hopefully AD will drop prices by easter time ..i am going to spend my money wisely
My guess is that online watch dealers(Facebook/Instagram) have been making more money than usual with all the ADs (and Bricks and Mortar watch dealers) shut and plenty of people who have to liquidate their watches for all sorts of reasons (whether it’s losing their job, wanting to generate some cash to invest in potential opportunities in stock markets, initially buying to flip and panicking the second hand prices will fall.. etc).
As a result these online watch dealers are lowballing sellers and quickly ‘passing on’ these low prices to buyers, making a grand or two in the process and getting praised for ‘selling at good prices’ or ‘good service’ for delivering (the Coronavirus) given the current climate.
Still plenty of activity in Rolex Facebook group. The buyers/sellers will only know whether they were right to buy/sell in the future, but the watch dealers would’ve made a quick buck regardless.
Just my 2cents.
This is worth a watch (pun intended). Popular Pateks are taking a bath at the moment. Rolex too according to this luxury watch dealer with a large business in the US.
https://youtu.be/Tl9Z-P5P5Jo
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