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Thread: Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

  1. #101
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxy100 View Post
    Will anyone even want to buy a new sports Rolex when they're not going to be able to sell them immediately for s large profit?
    Yes. People who like wearing Rolex watches will want to buy them.

    Cuidich 'n Righ

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Yes. People who like wearing Rolex watches will want to buy them.

    +1 Iíll buy one! Been waiting years on end for one...


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  3. #103
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    Quote Originally Posted by aldfort View Post
    Folks, I seem to see a lot of Rolex envy in this thread. Let me offer these gentle reminders:

    Rolex don't have shareholders so they don't care about market turbulence because they don't have to deliver an ever rising quartlerly divided. They are also master marketeers so they have been well versed at manging supply to create demand for decades including during several major wars. This brings me nicely to my next point:

    As somebody who has travelled for a lot of my working life, and into some dodgy areas on occasion, I know that the 3 things you can rely on to get out of a tight spot are the US dollar, the Swiss Franc and a Rolex watch. I'll leave you to figure out how tight spot might be defined.
    Yeah they are pretty special all right, also immune from having to pay wages to their entire work staff whilst all this is going on, rent where applicable, cost of material stockpiles, and the list goes on. Masters of marketing, of course most of the events where they market to have been cancelled (e.g. Formula 1). Rolex are a business like any other, if yup think they are sitting round with relaxed faces I'd imagine you're wrong. Make no mistake, this is a worrying time for all concerned.

  4. #104
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Isn’t it almost entirely automated? - I’ve never believed there is any kind of real shortage. Unless I’ve got it wrong, most models run the same movement and I imagine it’s a flick of a switch and they can churn out more Submariner cases/less datejusts without a human being getting properly involved. I’m also certain they have lots of stock sat in storage which they can release if and when they need to. It’s called market manipulation.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Satori View Post
    You’ve got it wrong.
    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Evidence?


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    Well....

    Datejust 41.... uses calibre 3235 movement.

    GMT Master 2... uses calibre 3285 movement

    Day Date.... uses calibre 3255 movement

    Submariner Date.... uses calibre 3135 movement

    Submariner no Date.... uses calibre 31310 movement

    etc etc

    So no, most models don't use the same movement.

    Also the assembly of said watches is not done by machine, so no, they can't just 'flick a switch' and turn out more watches although they could order more cases.





    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post

    Oh did I say something nasty about the little boys trinkets? Grow up please - there are important things going on on the world. I’m wrong about a lot of things, and happy to admit it. It’s called being an adult. When those things are of zero consequence I couldn’t really give a monkeys tbh, but always surprises me when it upsets somebody with very thin skin. This place becomes less pleasant by the day.


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    What you said about the 'little boys trinkets' was a load of uninformed rubbish basically. So perhaps you will admit that.
    Last edited by oldoakknives; 15th March 2020 at 14:02.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  5. #105
    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Oh did I say something nasty about the little boys trinkets? Grow up please - there are important things going on on the world. Iím wrong about a lot of things, and happy to admit it. Itís called being an adult. When those things are of zero consequence I couldnít really give a monkeys tbh, but always surprises me when it upsets somebody with very thin skin. This place becomes less pleasant by the day.
    Happy to admit when you're wrong, just won't click and read a link with evidence proving you're wrong? Makes sense.

    The bottom falling out of the Rolex market wouldn't touch me at all. I have two. I had six at the end of last year but sold four and won't be buying more for the foreseeable. The two I have left weren't bought on finance or a credit card and if they're worth £5 tomorrow it won't even impact me 1%. Your assumption couldn't be more wrong. If they go up or down I don't care.

    On the other hand I sold my house in October and the funds are sat ready to buy the next one so if the entire economy went down the toilet (which looks possible right now) it would benefit me hugely. The last thing on my mind would be a BLNR worth "only" £5k if I'm buying a house for £100k less.

    Wakey wakey.

  6. #106
    Master aldfort's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Yeah they are pretty special all right, also immune from having to pay wages to their entire work staff whilst all this is going on, rent where applicable, cost of material stockpiles, and the list goes on. Masters of marketing, of course most of the events where they market to have been cancelled (e.g. Formula 1). Rolex are a business like any other, if yup think they are sitting round with relaxed faces I'd imagine you're wrong. Make no mistake, this is a worrying time for all concerned.
    You have conflated what I said about Rolex with a statement about "a worrying time for all concerned". While you may be right about the latter thing you are utterly wrong about the former IMHO. However we shall see, as time will provide the answer always provided that the doom-mongers don't turn their abject panic into a self-fullfilling prophesy!

  7. #107
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    Not specific to this thread, but I find 'reverse snobs' who are desperate to explain how they're better off without a Rolex (or other luxury brand) far worse - and far more prevalent - than actual watch snobs.

  8. #108
    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Well....

    Datejust 41.... uses calibre 3235 movement.

    GMT Master 2... uses calibre 3285 movement

    Day Date.... uses calibre 3255 movement

    Submariner Date.... uses calibre 3135 movement

    Submariner no Date.... uses calibre 31310 movement

    etc etc

    So no, most models don't use the same movement.

    Also the assembly of said watches is not done by machine, so no, they can't just 'flick a switch' and turn out more watches although they could order more cases.









    What you said about the 'little boys trinkets' was a load of uninformed rubbish basically. So perhaps you will admit that.
    Really sorry guys. Iím completely wrong, as I was busy with my kids this morning didnít read the whole thing as didnít have the time. Iím glad you do have the time to reply to a flippant comment I made on an online watch forum, and glad wileeeey has loads of money in the bank apparently - good for him. But theyíre still trinkets and I still think Rolex limits the supply of models artificially. So massive apologies chaps and Iím out.


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  9. #109
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Happy to admit when you're wrong, just won't click and read a link with evidence proving you're wrong? Makes sense.

    The bottom falling out of the Rolex market wouldn't touch me at all. I have two. I had six at the end of last year but sold four and won't be buying more for the foreseeable. The two I have left weren't bought on finance or a credit card and if they're worth £5 tomorrow it won't even impact me 1%. Your assumption couldn't be more wrong. If they go up or down I don't care.

    On the other hand I sold my house in October and the funds are sat ready to buy the next one so if the entire economy went down the toilet (which looks possible right now) it would benefit me hugely. The last thing on my mind would be a BLNR worth "only" £5k if I'm buying a house for £100k less.

    Wakey wakey.
    I donít remember questioning your material wealth at all and yet you feel it is somehow necessary. A very peculiar response imho


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  10. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    I donít remember questioning your material wealth at all and yet you feel it is somehow necessary. A very peculiar response imho

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    It's not wealth related at all. Who says I'm not buying a one bed flat for £150k? I'm just saying I couldn't care less if the watches are worth 2p tomorrow. You're saying I'm getting butt hurt over them devaluing. If the arse falls out of any of it, it helps me.
    Last edited by wileeeeeey; 15th March 2020 at 18:06.

  11. #111
    I think thereís been a basic misunderstanding. I didnít post with any thought to values at all. Just the fact that Rolex can change if they want to and they donít, they havenít for decades


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  12. #112
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Really sorry guys. Iím completely wrong, as I was busy with my kids this morning didnít read the whole thing as didnít have the time. Iím glad you do have the time to reply to a flippant comment I made on an online watch forum, and glad wileeeey has loads of money in the bank apparently - good for him. But theyíre still trinkets and I still think Rolex limits the supply of models artificially. So massive apologies chaps and Iím out.


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    Well 'flippant' it may have been but it was based on assertions that were incorrect. On an online watch forum it's likely that people will have a certain amount of knowledge about watches and watch manufacturers. But thanks for admitting you got it wrong, not many would.

    All watches are trinkets at the end of the day. Just some are more popular than others, apparently...

    As for wileeeeey having loads of money, good luck to him!
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  13. #113
    Someoneís liquidating already.

  14. #114
    I can assure you both I don't have loads of money in the bank. If I did I would have bought the next place already and not been outbid. I sold and couldn't tie in an onward purchase at the time so by default my deposit is in the bank but that could be anything from £20k to £1m.

    If it was in my current account and to spend on whatever I wanted then yes, quite a bit, but as a deposit on a property goes, not so much.

  15. #115
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    I can assure you both I don't have loads of money in the bank. If I did I would have bought the next place already and not been outbid. I sold and couldn't tie in an onward purchase at the time so by default my deposit is in the bank but that could be anything from £20k to £1m.

    If it was in my current account and to spend on whatever I wanted then yes, quite a bit, but as a deposit on a property goes, not so much.
    Sorry mate, didn't mean to imply anything about your finances as such, just replying to his post.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  16. #116
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnnyMango View Post
    Not specific to this thread, but I find 'reverse snobs' who are desperate to explain how they're better off without a Rolex (or other luxury brand) far worse - and far more prevalent - than actual watch snobs.
    Seems to be popular at the moment.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  17. #117
    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Sorry mate, didn't mean to imply anything about your finances as such, just replying to his post.
    I know, just didn't want to reply to one without the other!

  18. #118
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Someoneís liquidating already.
    Three in a matter of minutes. Mind you, trying to remove the back of one of them using a bottle opener knocked a fair wedge off the asking price.

  19. #119
    Craftsman martyloveswatches's Avatar
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    I am not worrying in getting a better price, but what about delivery?

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  20. #120
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    Most interesting will be to see how gray peddlers overcome this event. For them, its not the value of deal so much but the numbers of deals that keeps bread on the table.

  21. #121
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    Quote Originally Posted by P9CLY View Post
    I have many watches,all bought because I liked and wanted them.Most have turned out to be a good Investement,but I didn't know that when I bought them otherwise I'd have bought even more of the same.
    Investment isn't a dirty word,many people will be in a good infact very very good place in terms of what any returns will give for their purchases from many years ago ( a damn fine Investement).
    And all the above isn't to say that some of my watch purchases weren't influenced on how watches have increased in price over the years,even in just a couple of years!.
    See it as a bonus to buying the right watch at the right time if you can't stomach the word "Investement".

    I couldn't agree more, I too have many watches and they are worth far in excess what I paid for them, mostly by accident, I did get ahead of the curve with some, specifically the vintage Seiko divers, that was a conscious decision as they were under valued for years, it didn't hurt that I also really like them.
    I can't really afford to play this game any more, the ones I really like are beyond my reach now, I could sell them to buy but I really don't want to, I wear the same couple of watches all the time and am pretty content with those. The rest can sit there for a rainy day.
    They re only watches after all.
    Cheers..
    Jase

  22. #122
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Switzerland has the 2nd highest infection by population, you donít need a Harvard degree to realise that supply is going to stop
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  23. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by aldfort View Post
    Nah- you are entirely wrong. There have been flu pandemics before and they are not up there with world wars in their impact.
    The 1918 pandemic killed more people than WW1.

    https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/

  24. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by seabiscuit View Post
    Three in a matter of minutes. Mind you, trying to remove the back of one of them using a bottle opener knocked a fair wedge off the asking price.
    Was totally gob-smacked by that - why would you even think of doing it?

    The others look beaten up and well over priced, but hey-ho plenty of wriggle room for negotiation.

  25. #125
    If anything like Coronavirus the Rolex listings will double every day ...😂

  26. #126
    Master aldfort's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holsterman View Post
    The 1918 pandemic killed more people than WW1.

    https://virus.stanford.edu/uda/
    Conflating two facts again I'd suggest.

    How many people from combatant countries died in the 1917 / 1918 flu pandemic compared to those killed in the war.

    Granted the world wide total of dead may have exceeded those combatants killed in the war, but that's not really the right comparator.

    World population in 1918 estimated at 1.8 billion
    Total world deaths from Spanish Flu estimated at 50 million (assuming an American billion) that's 2.7% of the population.
    Total combatant deaths WW1 estimated at 17 million of which 700,000 were British
    British population at 1914 census 43 million.
    British deaths from Spanish Flu pandemic in 1918 estimated at 228,000 that 0.5% of the UK population at a time when the UK Gov't deliberately took hardly any control measures at all due to the war effort. It is estimated that this decision increased the death rate by a few 10's of thousands in the UK.

    So lets get this in perspective. A lot of people in the UK are going to die of Covid 19 infections. A lot of people in the UK, about 650,000, die every year anyway. While that's desperately sad it's also fact.

  27. #127
    Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Yes a lot will die and itís inevitable - but sadly the way the markets and governments have reacted is also inevitable and will result in atrocious corporate results and will see many many businesses go to the wall. Luxury goods will definitely fall in demand and therefore value in the short term at least.

    Will corona lead to a global recession - I think so unfortunately.

  28. #128
    Quote Originally Posted by RustyBin5 View Post
    Luxury goods will definitely fall in demand and therefore value in the short term at least.

    Will corona lead to a global recession - I think so unfortunately.
    I would agree.

  29. #129
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    Inevitable I reckon, though it was on the cards.

  30. #130
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    I think its too tricky to forecast. The luxury market has survived recession before, largely because those who can afford to buy a Rolex or an LV bag a month will continue to do so but savers and once-per-lifetime buyers may not. Plus, there has always been an increase in inappropriate spending (art, watches, jewellery) in times of crisis due to the feel good factor.
    But this isn't just a recession, its a pandemic which will affect supply chains from manufacture to end user via retailers and etc.
    Equally, while footfall decreases online sales may rise with more people at home perusing the internet, but again thats dependent on the ability for delivery both nationally and internationally.
    Who knows.
    Weird to see people rubbing their hands with glee over it though, regardless of what happens its highlighting some personalities.

  31. #131
    Louis Vuitton are switching production lines from perfume to hand sanitiser https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51868756.

  32. #132
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    Wouldnít like to see the price of that hand gel.

  33. #133
    Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Dow down 11% today. Ffs

  34. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hood View Post
    Wouldnít like to see the price of that hand gel.
    Free to the health authorities.

  35. #135
    Master aldfort's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by verv View Post
    Who knows.
    Weird to see people rubbing their hands with glee over it though, regardless of what happens its highlighting some personalities.
    This - exactly this. Like that bloke from Dad's Army! Quite the weirdest reaction in my book! ... and that's being charitable.

  36. #136
    Quote Originally Posted by aldfort View Post
    This - exactly this. Like that bloke from Dad's Army! Quite the weirdest reaction in my book! ... and that's being charitable.
    Yes I agree -weird

  37. #137
    5 Rolexes listed on SC in the last 24 hours.

  38. #138
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    5 Rolexes listed on SC in the last 24 hours.
    The LVc and WG DD will cancel eachother out. The other three are by the same person which is almost worse than 5 in 24 hours to begin with.

  39. #139
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    The LVc and WG DD will cancel eachother out. The other three are by the same person which is almost worse than 5 in 24 hours to begin with.
    Youíve missed the blue Yachtmaster


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  40. #140
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Youíve missed the blue Yachtmaster


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    Ouch. Didn't see that at all.

  41. #141
    Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

    One thing that hasnít been mentioned as far as I can see is if you can catch the virus via items. ie someone with virus posts say a watch. Someone without the virus receives said watch in the mail. Is there contagion risk it not? Iíd certainly be a little hesitant about ordering something from China just now.

    Pretty sure Iím not infected but sold a bracelet and while itís in mint new condition I still gave it the ultrasonic treatment and didnít handle it with bare hands before posting. Not sure if thatís paranoia gone mad or not, but better to be safe?
    Last edited by RustyBin5; 16th March 2020 at 17:15.

  42. #142
    Quote Originally Posted by RustyBin5 View Post
    One thing that hasnít been mentioned as far as I can see is if you can catch the virus via items. ie someone with virus posts say a watch. Someone without the virus receives said watch in the mail. Is there contagion risk it not? Iíd certainly be a little hesitant about ordering something from China just now.

    Pretty sure Iím not infected but sold a bracelet and while itís in mint new condition I still gave it the ultrasonic treatment and didnít handle it with bare hands before posting. Not sure if thatís paranoia gone mad or not, but better to be safe?
    Virus would not survive that long on metal surfaces or packaging

  43. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by RustyBin5 View Post
    One thing that hasnít been mentioned as far as I can see is if you can catch the virus via items. ie someone with virus posts say a watch. Someone without the virus receives said watch in the mail. Is there contagion risk it not? Iíd certainly be a little hesitant about ordering something from China just now.

    Pretty sure Iím not infected but sold a bracelet and while itís in mint new condition I still gave it the ultrasonic treatment and didnít handle it with bare hands before posting. Not sure if thatís paranoia gone mad or not, but better to be safe?
    I think thatís just paranoia ..


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  44. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by RAJEN View Post
    Virus would not survive that long on metal surfaces or packaging
    The virus wouldnít last with Hermes as the package wouldnít turn up or be kicking round in the street somewhere haha


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  45. #145
    Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RAJEN View Post
    Virus would not survive that long on metal surfaces or packaging
    Hmm it got me thinking - so I did a bit of research. National Institutes of Health in Princeton and California University appears to have studied it and 24 hours on cardboard and up to 72 hours on plastic and stainless steel is possible. Of course thatís in laboratory conditions but still it does appear that droplets suspended in air is only one vector of transmission

  46. #146
    Craftsman JPE's Avatar
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    My 16710 full set was a 6K watch back in 2017.

    Now it's supposedly a 10-11K watch.

    Why? Did we get that much wealthier in three years?

    No we did not. It's a bubble that's going to burst.

    I'm the first one who's happy about it.

    I'm not selling anyway so I don't care. I love watches and I don't care how much they're worth.

  47. #147
    Rolex again shot up today on Chrono24.


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  48. #148
    Quote Originally Posted by Kippax View Post
    Rolex again shot up today on Chrono24.


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    I think the sales forum will have a better feel for the market than C24 to be honest

  49. #149
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    Probably due more to the weak £ vs EUR/USD. Is C24 prices based off current listings?

  50. #150

    Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    I think the sales forum will have a better feel for the market than C24 to be honest
    Hardly, SC differs from the real word as the market is concerned. If you want more money for your watch, donít sell it on the forum. Chrono24, like I have said before is useful on where the market is, not the price of the watch.


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