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Thread: Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Problem is if people just think about themselves and stop spending the knock on effect is that everyone stops spending and we are all poorer. By stopping spending you do a shop out of money which means it lays off staff who now stop spending which means another store lays off staff who stop spending which means.....
    All well and good while you have the option. Clocks ticking on that option now, and for how long it ticks we donít know. I certainly wonít be isolating myself all the time Iím healthy, but I wonít be spending money on anything I donít really need until things are clearer. And I thought Brexit + Corbyn would be a disaster for the economy...

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    Makes no odds to me to be honest ....
    Not intrested in buying a new omega discount or not
    and wouldn’t pay inflated grey dealer prices either and I’d imagine many others won’t now also
    Maybe start looking for a new job ?
    I wish you and your family good fortune during this pandemic and I hope that once it's over you have your health and they have food on the table.

  3. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by verv View Post
    I wish you and your family good fortune during this pandemic and I hope that once it's over you have your health and they have food on the table.
    Thanks verv thatís a very nice gesture
    I wish you and everyone else the best of health also ...
    As they say health is wealth
    On a slightly joking note , Iím well prepared on the food front
    Iíve got 6.5k in the bank as goldsmiths wouldnít sell me a watch
    Apparently I didnít fit the criteria of being a friend/family or grey backhand dealer
    Whatever happened to the customer always being right ?
    Now with the Coronavirus black swan and everything that will come with it .Goldsmiths no longer fit my personal criteria unfortunately
    Watch shopping and luxury spending will be the last thing on my and most peopleís mind for a long time to come I believe

    Letís face it greys and Goldsmiths have had it easy and made hay itís sensible to put money away for such times
    Last edited by speedypro1111; 14th March 2020 at 19:11.

  4. #54
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Der Amf View Post
    I own a watch I'm very enthusiastic about. I bought the watch because I wanted it, not because it was an entertaining way of parking my money. If its market value collapses, it won't affect me at all, because I wanted to own it, not because I wanted to sell it. As far as I'm concerned, the money is gone, just like all that money I used to spend on delicious wine, or the money other people spend on nice holidays and weddings.

    Now, for people who self-identify as Genuine Watch Enthusiasts, but in reality are carried away by prevailing fashions and the possibility of making money..... Well, if you resent being stuck with a watch that's collapsed in value or gone horribly out of fashion, this is a good test of your Genuine Watch Enthusiasm, isn't it?
    Perhaps it is. The person I replied to seemed happy that watch values would fall, as it would affect the 'investor' buyers. My point was it would affect the value of genuine enthusiasts watches as well. Personally I'm not bothered, I write off any money I spend on watches anyway.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  5. #55
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    With a bit of luck it’ll take all grey dealers under and the likes of Goldsmiths might show a bit more respect to buyers instead of looking down they’re noses at them
    Can't say anyone has ever looked down their nose at us when we've been in their shops spending on watches and jewellery. The local shops we use the most know our names and seem very polite and friendly. (yes I know they want to sell something!) Perhaps they don't see you as a regular customer.

    Also a lot of people would lose their jobs, which is hardly something to wish for.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  6. #56
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    If you think that the supply of Rolex is difficult now just wait till the factories are all closed for months!
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  7. #57
    Master RustyBin5's Avatar
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    Goldsmiths have been very helpful to me. Bought three Tudorís from them

  8. #58
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    Working for a Rolex AD there's already clear signs of a slowdown... naturally the "china" brands drop first, the Blancpains, Breguets, Cartiers etc are gathering dust in the cabinets... in the Rolex cabinet on display, immediately available, is DSSD black, Yachtmasters of all variants, including white gold, PM daytonas, Milgauss, Air King etc... I suspect in the coming weeks we'll see Explorer 1 and 2, Sub nodate etc...

    The knockon effects of people and companies losing cashflow, while banks start to restrict credit, will be huge... It stands to reason a lot of "rare" watches will show up for sale.

    I have cash on hand and if the prices fall back far enough, I'm buying.

  9. #59
    Iíve personally found Goldsmiths the worst
    Grey dealers should go back to selling pre owned and gold theyíll still get by just fine
    Iím not wishing anyone to loose theyíre jobs to be honest but Iím hoping it solves the problems above

  10. #60
    When youíre local smug Goldsmiths hasnít got a Rolex to sell you but just over the road the pre owned specialist has a window full of new Rolex at double RRP
    Something isnít right and needs fixing itís pretty obvious that Rolex is /was in its own little bubble
    And also itís pretty obvious also where the pre owned dealers watches are coming from
    Unfortunately it looks like things are about to change drastically for all concerned
    The plus side is me and many others being able to buy whatever watch takes our fancy
    From a Rolex authorised dealer
    And the once smug sales assistant being glad of the business
    Last edited by speedypro1111; 14th March 2020 at 20:35.

  11. #61
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    If you think that the supply of Rolex is difficult now just wait till the factories are all closed for months!
    Uh oh..

  12. #62
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    Worries.

    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    If you think that the supply of Rolex is difficult now just wait till the factories are all closed for months!

    To be blunt, I think at this moment no one is giving a Monkeyís arse about Rolex Supply or lack of. I do not think we will see the headline of Rolex shortage due to Coronavirus deaths causing prices to rise in secondary market, more likely fire sales as cash flow dries up.

  13. #63
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    I got the call to come and collect a harrods tudor black bay...I wonder....should I ask for a discount!?

  14. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by LondonNeil View Post
    I got the call to come and collect a harrods tudor black bay...I wonder....should I ask for a discount!?
    Yes and no less than 50% ;-)

  15. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    If you think that the supply of Rolex is difficult now just wait till the factories are all closed for months!
    Isnít it almost entirely automated? - Iíve never believed there is any kind of real shortage. Unless Iíve got it wrong, most models run the same movement and I imagine itís a flick of a switch and they can churn out more Submariner cases/less datejusts without a human being getting properly involved. Iím also certain they have lots of stock sat in storage which they can release if and when they need to. Itís called market manipulation.


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  16. #66
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    Coronavirus watch industry thread predictably very quickly becomes another Rolex supply / grey dealer pricing discussion ad nauseaum...

  17. #67
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    Shortage.

    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Isnít it almost entirely automated? - Iíve never believed there is any kind of real shortage. Unless Iíve got it wrong, most models run the same movement and I imagine itís a flick of a switch and they can churn out more Submariner cases/less datejusts without a human being getting properly involved. Iím also certain they have lots of stock sat in storage which they can release if and when they need to. Itís called market manipulation.


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    Probably nearly every manufacturer will have hundreds if not thousands of crates of boxed up models ready to ship out when desired and it probably looks a lot like the last scene in Indiana Jones Raiders of the lost ark when they open up the warehouse to put the ark away into storage, just row upon row of crates.

  18. #68
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    Quote Originally Posted by ac11111 View Post
    Coronavirus watch industry thread predictably very quickly becomes another Rolex supply / grey dealer pricing discussion ad nauseaum...
    I noticed that myself haha wow


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  19. #69
    Grand Master oldoakknives's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    When youíre local smug Goldsmiths hasnít got a Rolex to sell you but just over the road the pre owned specialist has a window full of new Rolex at double RRP
    Something isnít right and needs fixing itís pretty obvious that Rolex is /was in its own little bubble
    And also itís pretty obvious also where the pre owned dealers watches are coming from
    Unfortunately it looks like things are about to change drastically for all concerned
    The plus side is me and many others being able to buy whatever watch takes our fancy
    From a Rolex authorised dealer
    And the once smug sales assistant being glad of the business
    Bet you can't wait to rub their noses in it eh?
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  20. #70
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    There will be job losses, people in sales will sell less, bonuses will dry up and overall people will struggle financially. How bad it turns out is anyoneís guess at the moment but one market that will see some form of decline is luxury goods. Watches included. I was going to buy quiet a special watch and decided against it because of the uncertainty. Multiple that by X amount of people deciding against spending.

  21. #71
    Quote Originally Posted by petay993 View Post
    That reminds me, I wonder if my Tudor Black Bay Green has turned up at Harrods yet, been waiting since October 1st, funnily enough it doesn't seem particularly vital anymore!
    I'm on the list for one from around the same time. If I got the email tomorrow telling me I was in I wouldn't collect it. Not a chance.

  22. #72
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    Uncertain times indeed.

    I think most folk will be holding off for at least another four or so months before they are confident to go out and look at potential purchases without fear of catching anything !!!..

  23. #73
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    Anyone asked watchfinder recently for quote to buy and what they are currently offering for SS Rolex's ATM (Pepsi etc)? Be interested to know whether they have adjusted their buy in prices due to Covid19 and where they currently land?

  24. #74
    Grand Master Foxy100's Avatar
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    Will anyone even want to buy a new sports Rolex when they're not going to be able to sell them immediately for s large profit?
    You can live in your car but you can't drive your house.

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Foxy100 View Post
    Will anyone even want to buy a new sports Rolex when they're not going to be able to sell them immediately for s large profit?
    Well said, imagine been able to walk into any watch shop, see watches in cases, not been laughed at when you enquire about a watch, not have to hear about building up a customer profile in the shop and finally watching the sales person actually work for their Rolex or other hard to find watch sale...


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  26. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by ac11111 View Post
    Coronavirus watch industry thread predictably very quickly becomes another Rolex supply / grey dealer pricing discussion ad nauseaum...
    Some people just canít help themselves:-)
    Pavlovian reflex.

  27. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Unless Iíve got it wrong, most models run the same movement and I imagine itís a flick of a switch and they can churn out more Submariner cases/less datejusts without a human being getting properly involved.
    Youíve got it wrong.

  28. #78
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    I donít know how bad itíll be, I think itís going to get ugly. However for those who catch it early and recover not a lot will change I suppose.


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  29. #79
    Master Alansmithee's Avatar
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    One side-effect is likely we will see brands that do not sell online start to do so as people stay away from shops.

  30. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Anyone asked watchfinder recently for quote to buy and what they are currently offering for SS Rolex's ATM (Pepsi etc)? Be interested to know whether they have adjusted their buy in prices due to Covid19 and where they currently land?
    Noticed this feedback on PH - third post down quoted.

    https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/...=1841950&i=620

    Surprising correction if true!

  31. #81
    If your dead, none of this will matter anyway.

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  32. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Isnít it almost entirely automated? - Iíve never believed there is any kind of real shortage. Unless Iíve got it wrong, most models run the same movement and I imagine itís a flick of a switch and they can churn out more Submariner cases/less datejusts without a human being getting properly involved. Iím also certain they have lots of stock sat in storage which they can release if and when they need to. Itís called market manipulation.


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    They are not fooling me, cut them and they wonít bleed!

    https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/inside-rolex


  33. #83

    Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

    Quote Originally Posted by petay993 View Post
    Noticed this feedback on PH - third post down quoted.

    https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/...=1841950&i=620

    Surprising correction if true!
    Glad I did not pick up the CHNR at list a couple of months ago. If the offer price of £8750 on the Pepsi is real, then the much less desirable CHNR will tank.

    Not surprised by the Watchfinder offer at all. Pre-emptive strike. Sales prices will now start to fall on their website to make any sales.
    Last edited by noTAGlove; 15th March 2020 at 10:51.

  34. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by ac11111 View Post
    Coronavirus watch industry thread predictably very quickly becomes another Rolex supply / grey dealer pricing discussion ad nauseaum...
    This is very different. The drivers are in place that this could be the biggest correction in watch prices in a generation. It deserves its own thread, discussion and evidence of price falls.

  35. #85
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petay993 View Post
    Noticed this feedback on PH - third post down quoted.

    https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/...=1841950&i=620

    Surprising correction if true!
    We'll that's certainly a significant correction. That said there's still £1k uptick on RRP for the casual speculator so maybe some will remain in the market. You can't help but think that offer price was wepp thought out and strategically placed for that reason.

  36. #86
    Be great to see 5 digit GMTís back around the 4K mark!

  37. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by Satori View Post
    Youíve got it wrong.
    Evidence?


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  38. #88
    Interesting that while they've dropped the buy price by 27-30% they've kept the buy price right up there at £16k pretending all is well with the market.

  39. #89
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    This is very different. The drivers are in place that this could be the biggest correction in watch prices in a generation. It deserves its own thread, discussion and evidence of price falls.
    Well there are some grey dealers pricing at insane levels watchfinder being the main culprit, they are backed by Richemont which means they shouldnít have liquidity issues.

    Smaller dealers, particularly those with shop fronts will be harder hit, so they will reduce prices to protect themselves and this will likely be the first source of price softening.

    Think private collectors largely buy as they like the watch, I would think this is not a great time to sell, then again some might have to sell due to personal circumstances unfortunately and if the demand on SC or grey dealer is not quite there, prices will come down in the private collectors market as well.

    Smaller and independent watch makers will be hardest hit from all of this, lots going under most likely.

    The large listed watch manufacturers like Swatch, Richemont Group and LVMH will probably just ride it out this year and I donít see Rolex and Patek changing due to the coronavirus as they have a well established long term strategy.

  40. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Evidence?
    Quote Originally Posted by ac11111 View Post
    They are not fooling me, cut them and they won't bleed!
    https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/inside-rolex
    Wakey wakey.

  41. #91
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    Quote Originally Posted by henk View Post
    If your dead, none of this will matter anyway.

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
    The only truth on this thread ! Haha wise words


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  42. #92
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Interesting that while they've dropped the buy price by 27-30% they've kept the buy price right up there at £16k pretending all is well with the market.
    It is because theyíve paid top money for their existing stock.

    A hypothetical situation, but let us say they hold 500 Rolex watches which each see a price fall of £3,000.

    That is a £1.5 million reduction in revenue. No wonder they are trying to keep their sales prices as high as possible for as long as possible.

    They are pricing new stock at what they believe they can sell it for at a later date. So they are pricing the future sales price of a Pepsi at <£12k rather than £16k


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  43. #93

    Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Wakey wakey.
    Got a life Iím afraid, not spending it reading fawning Hodinkee articles


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    Last edited by RobDad; 15th March 2020 at 11:55.

  44. #94
    [QUOTE=RobDad;5351436]Got a life I'm afraid, not spending it reading Hodinkee articles
    /QUOTE]
    I'm sure you wouldn't waste a single second on any website if it proved you wrong. Better to spend that life on here pedaling mindless drivel.

  45. #95
    [QUOTE=wileeeeeey;5351442]
    Quote Originally Posted by RobDad View Post
    Got a life I'm afraid, not spending it reading Hodinkee articles
    /QUOTE]
    I'm sure you wouldn't waste a single second on any website if it proved you wrong. Better to spend that life on here pedaling mindless drivel.
    Oh did I say something nasty about the little boys trinkets? Grow up please - there are important things going on on the world. Iím wrong about a lot of things, and happy to admit it. Itís called being an adult. When those things are of zero consequence I couldnít really give a monkeys tbh, but always surprises me when it upsets somebody with very thin skin. This place becomes less pleasant by the day.


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  46. #96
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Perhaps you could forget the watch market and consider this, bumped into a pal of mine who runs security for events and all of Premier League and Twickers, Wimbledon, & Wembley.

    No events, no money, all staff no work, debts mounting, then add the public transport that gets them there and those who feed and water them and you can see whatís on our doorstep!

    The Boomer Remover has landed and The Reset button has been firmly pressed
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  47. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Perhaps you could forget the watch market and consider this, bumped into a pal of mine who runs security for events and all of Premier League and Twickers, Wimbledon, & Wembley.

    No events, no money, all staff no work, debts mounting, then add the public transport that gets them there and those who feed and water them and you can see whatís on our doorstep!

    The Boomer Remover has landed and The Reset button has been firmly pressed
    I can recount 10 stories like this.

    If you think about it too deeply you come to the conclusion that this is not far short of an apocalypse.

  48. #98
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I can recount 10 stories like this.

    If you think about it too deeply you come to the conclusion that this is not far short of an apocalypse.
    The irony is people buying rubbish food to survive! Why not get out for a walk or run and strengthen your lungs and invest in your health and diet to give you a better chance of surviving?

    Typed as I watch people walking past me smoking
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  49. #99
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    Folks, I seem to see a lot of Rolex envy in this thread. Let me offer these gentle reminders:

    Rolex don't have shareholders so they don't care about market turbulence because they don't have to deliver an ever rising quartlerly divided. They are also master marketeers so they have been well versed at manging supply to create demand for decades including during several major wars. This brings me nicely to my next point:

    As somebody who has travelled for a lot of my working life, and into some dodgy areas on occasion, I know that the 3 things you can rely on to get out of a tight spot are the US dollar, the Swiss Franc and a Rolex watch. I'll leave you to figure out how tight spot might be defined.

  50. #100
    Master aldfort's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Perhaps you could forget the watch market and consider this, bumped into a pal of mine who runs security for events and all of Premier League and Twickers, Wimbledon, & Wembley.

    No events, no money, all staff no work, debts mounting, then add the public transport that gets them there and those who feed and water them and you can see whatís on our doorstep!

    The Boomer Remover has landed and The Reset button has been firmly pressed
    Nah- you are entirely wrong. There have been flu pandemics before and they are not up there with world wars in their impact. You are being decived by a media intent on sensationalising everyhing, oddly, in order to monetise it.

    We (as in all of us) can and will make it a whole lot worse if we panic and start reacting to the hyperbole suggested by "Boomer Remover" and similar inane soundbites!

    Since this is a virus we need to acknowedge 2 simple facts:

    You can't wipe it out, it's here to stay and that is all there is to it.
    The population will develop immunity due to its expoure and that is the best control mechanism there is for the vast majority of virus' that we share the planet with.

    ...and that is from somebody in an acknowleded risk catagory (me).

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