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Thread: Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

  1. #151
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    Prices will soften as people hunker down and effectively hibernate for the next year

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by ac11111 View Post
    Prices will soften as people hunker down and effectively hibernate for the next year
    Difficult to argue with this but it may go further. I'd venture that more Rolex are owned by the 'average' Joe than the elite. Average Joe (a group I consider myself to be part of) is likely to feel the pinch in the coming weeks and months. If they close the schools, my income will literally fall to zero.

  3. #153
    Quote Originally Posted by Kippax View Post
    Hardly, SC differs from the real word as the market is concerned. If you want more money for your watch, donít sell it on the forum. Chrono24, like I have said before is useful on where the market is, not the price of the watch.


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    Itís already been mentioned though mate c24 is very optimistic on price

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by beechcustom View Post
    Difficult to argue with this but it may go further. I'd venture that more Rolex are owned by the 'average' Joe than the elite. Average Joe (a group I consider myself to be part of) is likely to feel the pinch in the coming weeks and months. If they close the schools, my income will literally fall to zero.

    This. It will be a combination of an increase in watches for sale, and a drop in demand, sum will be greater than the parts.... After looking at my shares drop last few days, it would be hard to summon the urge to buy say, a 116500LN at list price, even though I can technically afford it.... it just doesn't feel like an intelligent thing to blow money on anymore, plus it's not fun.... I'm sure I'm not alone in this sentiment right now.

  5. #155
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    We certainly seem to be heading towards a buyers market at present and if people need to sell watches for financial reasons in the coming weeks and months that situation will only get stronger and prices being asked for and ultimately achieved by the seller will be lower.

    There will always be watches that buck the trend though.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by 744ER View Post
    This. It will be a combination of an increase in watches for sale, and a drop in demand, sum will be greater than the parts.... After looking at my shares drop last few days, it would be hard to summon the urge to buy say, a 116500LN at list price, even though I can technically afford it.... it just doesn't feel like an intelligent thing to blow money on anymore, plus it's not fun.... I'm sure I'm not alone in this sentiment right now.
    Iím not at the stage of rejecting a Daytona at list but perhaps Iím just behind the curve...


  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    We certainly seem to be heading towards a buyers market at present and if people need to sell watches for financial reasons in the coming weeks and months that situation will only get stronger and prices being asked for and ultimately achieved by the seller will be lower.

    There will always be watches that buck the trend though.
    I agree with that

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  8. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kippax View Post
    Hardly, SC differs from the real word as the market is concerned. If you want more money for your watch, donít sell it on the forum. Chrono24, like I have said before is useful on where the market is, not the price of the watch.


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    Chrono24 for the optimistic seller that doesn't mind his watch lying unsold for a year
    Generally SC has realistic prices and the watches shift quickly.
    I'd say the SC prices are more indicative of value and I have no reason to talk prices down as I own a few but in a recession prices will fall.

  9. #159
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    The other thing is watchfinder are bidding shocking on all buying in which reflects on current things too I would say

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  10. #160
    Quote Originally Posted by Hood View Post
    Chrono24 for the optimistic seller that doesn't mind his watch lying unsold for a year
    Generally SC has realistic prices and the watches shift quickly.
    I'd say the SC prices are more indicative of value and I have no reason to talk prices down as I own a few but in a recession prices will fall.
    Chrono24 reacts to grey market dealers. Yeah I would never expect to get what they say as the price for a watch. However Ebay, and other watch selling website, will sell at more of a premium than SC.


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  11. #161
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    Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

    Quote Originally Posted by Kippax View Post
    Chrono24 reacts to grey market dealers. Yeah I would never expect to get what they say as the price for a watch. However Ebay, and other watch selling website, will sell at more of a premium than SC.


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    If Chrono24 is one end of the market, SC is the other. I donít think SC is reflective of how most people purchase watches, Particularly Rolex! The forum doesníít seem to like those much.
    Last edited by Gavbaz; 16th March 2020 at 21:24.

  12. #162
    Craftsman JPE's Avatar
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    Doesn't Watchcharts show you the actual selling prices from _all_ watch marketplaces?

    https://watchcharts.com/

    PS: The owner published one of my blog articles today (with my permission of course). I wasn't aware of that site before that.
    Last edited by JPE; 16th March 2020 at 21:33.

  13. #163

  14. #164
    Journeyman turbomolwi's Avatar
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    Yes closed till 27 march but maybe extending .




  15. #165
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    Close up shop

    Rolex and probably every manufacturer could close up for the rest of the Year, quite frankly no one cares right now about Rolex or Omega etc. The rich are lossing millionís upon millions on the stock market every day and their dwindling fortunes cannot save them from this virus, every one else is looking at their families, jobs, can they get some bread and milk tomorrow.

  16. #166
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    And yet the grey dealer I know is clamouring for more stock as he's getting enquiries from outside the UK every day he can't keep up with. The UK is still the cheapest place for EU buyers to buy from.

  17. #167
    Quote Originally Posted by LaurasOtherHalf View Post
    And yet the grey dealer I know is clamouring for more stock as he's getting enquiries from outside the UK every day he can't keep up with. The UK is still the cheapest place for EU buyers to buy from.
    Maybe two weeks ago (and before that) he was getting enquiries.

    Youíre in lock down in France, Spain, Italy and you canít buy bread and milk without queuing for a couple of hours on the Continent, but the grey dealer is still getting enquiries he canít keep up with.

    Unlikely.

  18. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbomolwi View Post
    Yes closed till 27 march but maybe extending .
    27,000 less window fillers manufactured is a drop in the ocean compared to yearly production.
    Unless itís Daytona production week 🤣

  19. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flasher View Post
    Rolex and probably every manufacturer could close up for the rest of the Year, quite frankly no one cares right now about Rolex or Omega etc. The rich are lossing millionís upon millions on the stock market every day and their dwindling fortunes cannot save them from this virus, every one else is looking at their families, jobs, can they get some bread and milk tomorrow.
    Perhaps some of us are looking at investments which provide our retirement income, and wondering about our families and whether we can get some bread and milk tomorrow. You don't have to be dirt poor to care.
    Cuidich 'n Righ

  20. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by beechcustom View Post
    Difficult to argue with this but it may go further. I'd venture that more Rolex are owned by the 'average' Joe than the elite. Average Joe (a group I consider myself to be part of) is likely to feel the pinch in the coming weeks and months. If they close the schools, my income will literally fall to zero.
    The great thing is that Rolex is extremely liquid. If push comes to shove, and I hope it doesnít but it might, you can liquidate your Rolex and get a good chunk of change.

    Whatever we think about other brands, theyíre just not as easily sold for the cash we want for them.

    The bigger theme here is that watches are a luxury we may not need in a world where we struggle for basics like bog roll and pasta...


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  21. #171
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    Quote Originally Posted by LaurasOtherHalf View Post
    And yet the grey dealer I know is clamouring for more stock as he's getting enquiries from outside the UK every day he can't keep up with. The UK is still the cheapest place for EU buyers to buy from.
    It will get cheaper too as sterling slides versus the euro


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  22. #172
    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    The great thing is that Rolex is extremely liquid. If push comes to shove, and I hope it doesnít but it might, you can liquidate your Rolex and get a good chunk of change.

    Whatever we think about other brands, theyíre just not as easily sold for the cash we want for them.

    The bigger theme here is that watches are a luxury we may not need in a world where we struggle for basics like bog roll and pasta...


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    That assumes that there is a fair pool of people who are looking to buy luxury watches in a time of vast uncertainty. it also assumes that these people will not do the sensible thing and just hold off buying immediately and let the market fall as more people put their watches up for sale, supply and demand and all that.

    I actually don't think it will be to easy to sell Rolex at the moment, selling into a falling market is always difficult at the best of times and these are not the best of times.



    Mitch

  23. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    The great thing is that Rolex is extremely liquid. If push comes to shove, and I hope it doesn’t but it might, you can liquidate your Rolex and get a good chunk of change.

    Whatever we think about other brands, they’re just not as easily sold for the cash we want for them.

    The bigger theme here is that watches are a luxury we may not need in a world where we struggle for basics like bog roll and pasta...
    Quote Originally Posted by Mitch View Post
    That assumes that there is a fair pool of people who are looking to buy luxury watches in a time of vast uncertainty. it also assumes that these people will not do the sensible thing and just hold off buying immediately and let the market fall as more people put their watches up for sale, supply and demand and all that.

    I actually don't think it will be to easy to sell Rolex at the moment, selling into a falling market is always difficult at the best of times and these are not the best of times.
    Dealers can smell 'distressed' sellers a mile off.

    If you've bought a Rolex that lists at £8k from an AD & you've paid £12k for it at a grey, don't expect to wash your face when you sell it; expect to take a (rather deep) bath.
    ______

    ​Jim.

  24. #174
    There seems to be quite a few Rolex's appearing on SC this week, maybe the impact has started.

  25. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by boring_sandwich View Post
    There seems to be quite a few Rolex's appearing on SC this week, maybe the impact has started.
    It seems so folk rather cash the watches in now

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  26. #176
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    Average joes who dropped amplified coin on' hard' to get Rolex's will be struggling inside a couple of months since most have little if any savings to fall back on and the job losses have already begun. Rolex may need to start a buy back scheme to maintain 'brand ' value at this rate.

  27. #177
    Craftsman ozzyb123's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mitch View Post
    That assumes that there is a fair pool of people who are looking to buy luxury watches in a time of vast uncertainty. it also assumes that these people will not do the sensible thing and just hold off buying immediately and let the market fall as more people put their watches up for sale, supply and demand and all that.

    I actually don't think it will be to easy to sell Rolex at the moment, selling into a falling market is always difficult at the best of times and these are not the best of times.



    Mitch
    Your broader point is of course true, there will be fewer casual buyers in the system which could cool top dollar prices of old

    Perhaps the market returns a little in favour of more modestly wealthy enthusiasts but I canít see people selling up at big discounts just yet

    Anything is possible though!


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  28. #178
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    Quote Originally Posted by jwg663 View Post
    Dealers can smell 'distressed' sellers a mile off.

    If you've bought a Rolex that lists at £8k from an AD & you've paid £12k for it at a grey, don't expect to wash your face when you sell it; expect to take a (rather deep) bath.
    No doubt about that, even before COVID got here officially, WF had cooled offers (for example)


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  29. #179
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Maybe two weeks ago (and before that) he was getting enquiries.

    Youíre in lock down in France, Spain, Italy and you canít buy bread and milk without queuing for a couple of hours on the Continent, but the grey dealer is still getting enquiries he canít keep up with.

    Unlikely.
    Unlikely? What do you think I'm doing on here, posting for kicks?

    I've bought watches from him and his father before him, he lives with my business partner-we have absolutely no reason to think he is lying to us. The UK is cheap for watches and it is easy to sell to the eurozone.

    Good on him as far as I'm concerned-he's bucking the trend in a difficult time.

    I only own 2 modern Rolex so I don't really have an axe to grind but I think this black swan may even exasperate the bubble as long as we're not fighting in the streets for food and water (not completely unthinkable I grant you).

  30. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by ozzyb123 View Post
    The great thing is that Rolex is extremely liquid. If push comes to shove, and I hope it doesnít but it might, you can liquidate your Rolex and get a good chunk of change.

    Whatever we think about other brands, theyíre just not as easily sold for the cash we want for them.

    The bigger theme here is that watches are a luxury we may not need in a world where we struggle for basics like bog roll and pasta...


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    Understood. However, I've always lived well within my means. Without wishing to do a 'Skyman', I have next to no mortgage and money in the bank so I can ride this out for many years before I need to resort to selling my watches. By then I imagine Trump will have nuked China and it'll all be over for the human race anyway. I've also put the wheels in motion to considerably diversify my business so that I can operate in the current climate and I'm hopeful that I'll be able to get back to a decent income sooner rather than later (or dare I even say no dip in income if I get my skates on).

  31. #181
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    I spoke to Longines CH this morning. Many Swiss watch companies have already closed and staff are working from home. How long this might last is as yet unknown, so I presume outstanding repairs are going to take a while to come back to their owners. Curious that most independents work from home and are therfore already in essence, self isolating. But their repairs continue.

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  32. #182
    Iíve counted 8 Rolex SS sports models offered on SC so far this week, and itís still only Thursday.

    In the boom times of mid 2019 you where lucky to see one per month.

  33. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I’ve counted 8 Rolex SS sports models offered on SC so far this week. . .
    Don’t tell everyone - all those <50 can’t see them.

  34. #184
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Iíve counted 8 Rolex SS sports models offered on SC so far this week, and itís still only Thursday.
    And counting!

  35. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by MartynJC (UK) View Post
    Donít tell everyone - all those <50 canít see them.
    Perhaps some of us are actually worried about being able to! I fear for my bank balance if/when access is given.

  36. #186
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wallasey Runner View Post
    We certainly seem to be heading towards a buyers market at present and if people need to sell watches for financial reasons in the coming weeks and months that situation will only get stronger and prices being asked for and ultimately achieved by the seller will be lower.

    There will always be watches that buck the trend though.
    You say itís a buyers market but being a health issue controlling behaviour it effects everyone. Who is wanting to buy watches at the moment?

    A few months ago people may have been thinking ďhmm, could buy a vintage subĒ. Now even if some saw 1680 for £500 they wouldnít be buying it as their jobs are gone or soon to go. You May think that sounds crazy but rewind a few weeks and you have £10k in savings and your job is cushty etc and you think, heck Iíll buy an £8k rolex and just save back up again, itíll always be worth £8k. You donít buy it and today find your job is gone. You still have your £10k but no job and people saying ďitís a year of doom n gloomĒ youíre thinking, shite my mortgage is £1k and all the bills etc. That £8k Rolex in a relatively comfy position thought is now worth less than a tin of beans to you.

    I donít really see it as a case of a certain Rolex was £10k last week and you could be a Ďlucky buyerí and get it for £9000 this week. If it drops a lot so fast, youíll always be thinking itíll drop more next week etc. Whatís the magic number today?

    Whoís willing to put their money and say what theyíd pay? Maybe retired folk with no mortgage but even then if they have Ďkidsí itíd be a bit much buying a luxury watch when your daughter is crying with depression because her job has gone and sheís about to lose her world.

  37. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by MartynJC (UK) View Post
    Donít tell everyone - all those <50 canít see them.
    Some of us with >50 can't see them!

  38. #188

    Impact of Coronavirus on the Watch Market

    Quote Originally Posted by boring_sandwich View Post
    And counting!
    Oh yes, you turn your back on SC for a couple of minutes and another 2 Rolex appear (although 1 is a TT).

    I make that 10 then. Itís a Rolex fire sale!

  39. #189
    It is worrying times for everyone with a lot of uncertainties.

    I feel for anyone that got caught up in the whole bubble and can see the market returning to how things were pre 2017 on watches with discounts on rrp.

  40. #190
    Grand Master Wallasey Runner's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jameswrx View Post
    You say itís a buyers market but being a health issue controlling behaviour it effects everyone. Who is wanting to buy watches at the moment?
    I completely agree with everything you say. We are effectively saying the same thing from different angles. You have painted the picture of the once potential buyer who has to prioritise life over a shiny trinket and quite right, but as highlighted below 10 Rolex (I haven't counted) listed on SC in recent times shows that maybe people need to sell for the exact same reasons.

    Putting the rights and wrongs and reasons to one side a flood of any market place will depress prices and if the numbers of buyers are heavily reduced, anyone lucky enough to be actually looking to buy to some degree has the field to themselves. That is what I was saying, things will favour anyone with cash looking to buy at this time. That will apply equally to both new and second hand.

  41. #191
    Master Alansmithee's Avatar
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    Plus a lot of watches that came into circulation on the market were bought on credit - you'd be mad to spunk thousands on credit on a watch at the moment (which from the way Goldsmiths et al are sending me emails is already starting to bit).

  42. #192
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Oh yes, you turn your back on SC for a couple of minutes and another 2 Rolex appear (although 1 is a TT).

    I make that 10 then. Itís a Rolex fire sale!
    11

  43. #193
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    Quote Originally Posted by beechcustom View Post
    Understood. However, I've always lived well within my means. Without wishing to do a 'Skyman', I have next to no mortgage and money in the bank so I can ride this out for many years before I need to resort to selling my watches. ....
    So what happens if the entire financial market collapses , leaving money worthless? And that really could happen.

  44. #194
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    Quote Originally Posted by paskinner View Post
    So what happens if the entire financial market collapses , leaving money worthless? And that really could happen.
    Then SS Rolexís can be used to buy food!

  45. #195
    Quote Originally Posted by paskinner View Post
    So what happens if the entire financial market collapses , leaving money worthless? And that really could happen.
    Bitcoin.

  46. #196

  47. #197
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Bitcoin.
    And Gold. Waiting for it to take off...

  48. #198
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    On the first page of SC righ now, 3 SDs, 3 GMTs ( one coke, pepsi and batman), one explorer and 2 rolesor yachtmasters (platinum with blue dial and another which i didn't scroll to the op, think it is a steel and gold one). I know there was a hulk, a kermit, a platinum yachty with platinum dial and I think some TT subs earlier in the week. And that is just the sports. I feel sad that people are in a position where they need cash already, I guess lots of people are facing businesses folding or redundancy and their collection is their safety net. For those that held them as an investment its probably no more painful than taking savings from a building society account but its sad that there are lots of people needing savings already.

    I could be tempted by the hulk, or possibly the platinum yachty or the explorer or...well they are all nice watches, but....well.....no. Now is not the time to buy if risk averse as i am.

  49. #199
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    Swap for Rolex ?

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  50. #200
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    what rolex for the squits?

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