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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #4151
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Well the Kraken got released again today and ARB is up 56% so far and MSTR up 12%. I wish I'd put more into ARB but it was super risky as it is exposed to all the cryptos (and 98% of them will end up being garbage). I'll take profit monday. MSTR I had a bigger holding (or should that be hodling) in and thus far it has bought me 2 years worth of retirement income so I can retire 2 years earlier if I choose to. I'll leave it as I see a race to $100k BTC currently but at $40k BTC will take my original order value out of it so worst case if it all goes belly up I am net neutral bar the trading fees.

  2. #4152
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Fun fact: Elon Musk today became the richest person on the planet and none of his companies has ever returned a positive annual cash flow.

  3. #4153
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    “Potential”

    :-)

  4. #4154
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I'll leave it as I see a race to $100k BTC currently but at $40k BTC will take my original order value out of it so worst case if it all goes belly up I am net neutral bar the trading fees.
    Did you manage to catch it?


  5. #4155
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Nope as it was very briefly above 40k. Will do so today once US opens although BTC now below 39k
    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Did you manage to catch it?


  6. #4156
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    I'm happy with the small tranche I invested six weeks ago in solar stocks. And the group of airline stocks I bought dirt cheap ten months ago are stellar! Wish now I had done more $.

  7. #4157
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    The answer to the OPs questions seems to be anything, except the FTSE 100.

  8. #4158
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    This podcast is worth a listen.

    https://moneyweek.com/investments/al...rce=newsletter


    At one point they state that the mania for Tesla and Bitcoin is driven by the pandemic, middle aged men sat at home in their pyjamas thinking they can make easy money on the new tech ...

  9. #4159
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    Well, they might well have done these last few months!

  10. #4160
    Where does a beginner start ,if your wanting to buy some shares ,are there any apps similar to Coinbase.


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  11. #4161
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bondurant View Post
    Well, they might well have done these last few months!
    Indeed. While the music plays keep dancing. Just don’t be on the floor when it stops.

  12. #4162
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    At one point they state that the mania for Tesla and Bitcoin is driven by the pandemic, middle aged men sat at home in their pyjamas thinking they can make easy money on the new tech ...
    And dressing gown, don't forget the dressing gown.


  13. #4163
    Master Halitosis's Avatar
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    As others have mentioned before, there's a lot of folk looking to invest what they can't spend elsewhere (on holidays, social lives etc.) - even stimulus cheques. There are precious few places to actually invest in - savings interest rates are pitiful and the bond market is hardly appealing just now. So the mom & pop investors are throwing it all at equities (especially 'popular' stocks like Tesla) and even cryptocurrency.

    And I count myself among them - FOMO!

  14. #4164
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    Quote Originally Posted by Halitosis View Post
    As others have mentioned before, there's a lot of folk looking to invest what they can't spend elsewhere (on holidays, social lives etc.) - even stimulus cheques. There are precious few places to actually invest in - savings interest rates are pitiful and the bond market is hardly appealing just now. So the mom & pop investors are throwing it all at equities (especially 'popular' stocks like Tesla) and even cryptocurrency.

    And I count myself among them - FOMO!
    Good luck ... I'm giving Tesla & Bitcoin a miss ... completely different animals but both seem caught up in some present day mania to me ... no doubt the ride will continue for a while but it too wild for me.

  15. #4165

  16. #4166
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Buckle up this week.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  17. #4167
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Good luck ... I'm giving Tesla & Bitcoin a miss ... completely different animals but both seem caught up in some present day mania to me ... no doubt the ride will continue for a while but it too wild for me.
    Exactly this ^
    If history tells us anything, remember tulip bulbs
    Last edited by wotsthecrack; 11th January 2021 at 08:23.

  18. #4168
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Cool

    I read several research reports over the weekend heralding the global 'invasion' of 5G technology in wireless comminications. I was sold and spent about four hours investigating a couple dozen companies heavily into the 5G space. Whittled it down to ten strong competitors, and proceeded to place $5K buy orders for each. 2021 may suck for the financial markets, but I believe the best 5G companies will far outperform in the longer run.

    So, now I'm essentially managing four equity sector funds:

    • pacifichrono 5G Opportunities Fund
    • pacifichrono Solar Focus Fund
    • pacifichrono eV Technology Fund
    • pacifichrono Airlines Special Value Fund


    Not really funds, of course, but that's how I view these investments. I also tossed $10K into the Berkshire Focus Fund, which has been performing much better than the market.
    Last edited by pacifichrono; 11th January 2021 at 20:01.

  19. #4169
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    This podcast is worth a listen.

    https://moneyweek.com/investments/al...rce=newsletter


    At one point they state that the mania for Tesla and Bitcoin is driven by the pandemic, middle aged men sat at home in their pyjamas thinking they can make easy money on the new tech ...
    Apparently after Elon, Baillie Gifford (Scottish Mortgage Trust etc) are the biggest shareholder in Tesla, Going to be lots of tears if it crashes.

  20. #4170
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Seeking some SP500 futures here, will sell more at 3812 and 3830.

    Target below 3500.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  21. #4171
    Some regions in China reporting new surges in covid cases

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  22. #4172
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Mrs. PC and I recently booked 2 weeks in a Maui (Hawai'i) condo for late July. (gulp!)

  23. #4173
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maris View Post
    Apparently after Elon, Baillie Gifford (Scottish Mortgage Trust etc) are the biggest shareholder in Tesla, Going to be lots of tears if it crashes.
    That's common knowledge.
    They reduced their stake last year due to the value ballooning and have been in tesla for nearly a decade now.

    Most investors in smt won't have any tears.


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  24. #4174
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Seeking some SP500 futures here, will sell more at 3812 and 3830.

    Target below 3500.
    I have a huge short position in SP500, and watching how the avalanche starts sliding down the hill. Nice.

  25. #4175
    Not a good day , Brazilian mutants and bad economic news kicking Bidens rescue package in the nads

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  26. #4176
    Is there any neat or efficient way to track one's buying and selling decisions over the past year, that is to compare the prices at which you bought and sold funds or shares and compare to their current prices? Is there much point in doing this analysis?

    I use the AJ Bell platform.
    Last edited by ernestrome; 15th January 2021 at 14:49.

  27. #4177
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Which platforms are you UK guys using for individual shares? I have an old pension and a new ISA in Vanguard but when I try to open the brokerage account needed for individual shares on Vanguard it takes me to an American site and won't recognise my existing credentials (after I've clicked new user then existing login). I think that means they don't allow it in the UK? Help page is also American.

    Happy to open as a SS ISA if it allows individual stocks as this will be for a couple of very low value 5-10 year punts.

  28. #4178
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Which platforms are you UK guys using for individual shares? I have an old pension and a new ISA in Vanguard but when I try to open the brokerage account needed for individual shares on Vanguard it takes me to an American site and won't recognise my existing credentials (after I've clicked new user then existing login). I think that means they don't allow it in the UK? Help page is also American.

    Happy to open as a SS ISA if it allows individual stocks as this will be for a couple of very low value 5-10 year punts.

    HL but that may not be the best

    There is a UK site called Monevator which has a good article comparing platforms for different uses - I'd look at that if I were you

    https://monevator.com/find-the-best-online-broker/

  29. #4179
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maris View Post
    Apparently after Elon, Baillie Gifford (Scottish Mortgage Trust etc) are the biggest shareholder in Tesla, Going to be lots of tears if it crashes.
    Yes but most individual BG funds do not have more than 2% exposure to Tesla, same for Amazon. Diversification is everything to manage volatility.

  30. #4180
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thegreatdogwood View Post
    Yes but most individual BG funds do not have more than 2% exposure to Tesla, same for Amazon. Diversification is everything to manage volatility.
    Top ten holdings of Scottish Mortgage Trust:



    The first word which springs to mind isn't diversification, much rather dynamite.

  31. #4181
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    Looks like SMT has been reducing its Tesla holding; down from 12% a few weeks ago.


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  32. #4182
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Top ten holdings of Scottish Mortgage Trust:



    The first word which springs to mind isn't diversification, much rather dynamite.
    That screams two things.

    1. 100% millennial traders
    2. "lol not my money"

  33. #4183
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete D View Post
    Looks like SMT has been reducing its Tesla holding; down from 12% a few weeks ago.


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    Still listed at 12.3% in Tesla on their full breakdown. Also the same on the HL fundamentals page. Thought that was at end of November so maybe reduced now.

    https://www.bailliegifford.com/en/uk...november-2020/

  34. #4184
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Top ten holdings of Scottish Mortgage Trust:



    The first word which springs to mind isn't diversification, much rather dynamite.
    And as I said, most individual BG funds have less than 2% and are diversified. SMT is one trust, the OP said "Baillie Gifford (Scottish Mortgage Trust etc)" which is a multiple reference

  35. #4185
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thegreatdogwood View Post
    And as I said, most individual BG funds have less than 2% and are diversified. SMT is one trust, the OP said "Baillie Gifford (Scottish Mortgage Trust etc)" which is a multiple reference
    It's only their flagship.

  36. #4186
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    Baillie Gifford American and their Long Term Global Growth both have over 9% of investments in Tesla.


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  37. #4187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It's only their flagship.
    Indeed, and has "full" weighting to various other stocks too. But it is the exception to the rule with BG funds, etc...they do have a lot more funds than the 3 flagged
    Last edited by thegreatdogwood; 18th January 2021 at 21:06.

  38. #4188
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thegreatdogwood View Post
    Indeed, and has "full" weighting to various other stocks too. But it is the exception to the rule with BG funds, etc...they do have a lot more funds than the 3 flagged
    I am sure the Tesla position in the Emerging Markets Bond Fund is much smaller.

  39. #4189
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    The ballooning value of tesla distorts their % value on current holdings.

    All their funds did well from the early investment.


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  40. #4190
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    OK, most of their funds cannot invest at all into Tesla because their investment mandate doesn't allow (Bond funds, UK, Asia, China, Income, EM funds etc.).

    Here are those where Tesla is an eligible investment. In all but two funds Tesla is by far the biggest position.



  41. #4191
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    You’d think they’d rebalance every once in a while. Like passive funds do. Wouldn't get out of kilter like that if they did.

  42. #4192
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    You’d think they’d rebalance every once in a while. Like passive funds do. Wouldn't get out of kilter like that if they did.
    European regulated retail funds (UCITS) are not allowed to invest more than 10% into any single security. If the percentage drifts somewhat as a result of market movements, the fund is expected to re-balance to get the holding below 10% again. Not sure to which extend this still applies to the UK, but if those funds were to be sold anywhere in Europe they needed to comply with these rules.

  43. #4193
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Post

    I've started to turn around half my positions into cash. Have already liquidated most of the BTC derivatives (since hitting 41k last week it is hovering around the 35-37k range and I suspect a pause for a bit so I'll take profits), have put the requests through to sell my tracker funds also and will just keep emerging markets and Asia in play plus stocks like IAG. Will probably liquidate SMT in the morning also. Will keep my FTSE100 tracker in as I feel UK stocks are cheap.

    Why? I don't know, I'm absolutely no expert other than it just feels like a correction is nigh and that some more reality will return to the markets. If the market drops 10% or so I'll go back in.

  44. #4194
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I've started to turn around half my positions into cash. Have already liquidated most of the BTC derivatives (since hitting 41k last week it is hovering around the 35-37k range and I suspect a pause for a bit so I'll take profits), have put the requests through to sell my tracker funds also and will just keep emerging markets and Asia in play plus stocks like IAG. Will probably liquidate SMT in the morning also. Will keep my FTSE100 tracker in as I feel UK stocks are cheap.

    Why? I don't know, I'm absolutely no expert other than it just feels like a correction is nigh and that some more reality will return to the markets. If the market drops 10% or so I'll go back in.
    I saw a chart and analysis today that suggested Btc was about to push on. It was on a football forum admittedly so DYOR lol

    I’m back fully invested in my Sipp. Lost a few months growth waiting for the correction last year so I’m letting it run this time. I’m pretty diversified in the Sipp so I’m leaving the experts to do their magic!!

  45. #4195
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    I saw a chart and analysis today that suggested Btc was about to push on. It was on a football forum admittedly so DYOR lol

    I’m back fully invested in my Sipp. Lost a few months growth waiting for the correction last year so I’m letting it run this time. I’m pretty diversified in the Sipp so I’m leaving the experts to do their magic!!

    No doubt BTC will push on. My exiting the position would for sure be a sign that it will! :)

  46. #4196
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    If the market drops 10% or so I'll go back in.
    What’s your plan if markets climb 10%?

  47. #4197
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    What’s your plan if markets climb 10%?
    Wish I hadn't cashed out and kick myself for doing anything other than investing in low cost tracker funds :)

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  48. #4198
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by thenikjones View Post
    HL but that may not be the best

    There is a UK site called Monevator which has a good article comparing platforms for different uses - I'd look at that if I were you

    https://monevator.com/find-the-best-online-broker/
    Thanks, interesting link. Had a brief look now but will read properly tomorrow.

  49. #4199
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    If the Biden clan are about to announce yet another round of stimulus, as it looks like they are, then surely that will go to push things higher and higher?

    Probably a good time to go all in on Tesla.

  50. #4200
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    I just added two stocks and one EFT to my "Solar Portfolio." I'm a believer!

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