Reply With QuotePoll:
Will the market "crash" in the next 60 days?
(The accelerating COVID crisis has me worried.)
Originally Posted by noTAGlove
Up 126% since August. 😳
Poll:
Will the market "crash" in the next 60 days?
(The accelerating COVID crisis has me worried.)
I think it is pretty much guaranteed that you won’t see similar 30, 40 and 50% returns as per the last few months.
Maybe a good time to sit on the sidelines with all the gains.
You may lose just a few % if the market rises further, but there’s a whole lot to lose if the market goes t1ts up.
My vote is no. Vaccine roll out has started and we are now in a political phase where the economy matters more than the COVID deaths.
Dunno. Every fourth Dollar in circulation was born in 2020. That's a pretty strong argument for high asset prices. But I agree, short term the market appears a bit (= a lot) overextended.
I have tried the Bill Ackman approach this time: I stay long in my core holdings and have bought puts on high yield ETFs. The puts are cheap due to low volatility and I deem the upward risk low and the downward risk to be comparable to equities. One would think that the market would price this risk differently after Ackman made $2.5 bln on a comparable bet in March, but hey ho it's still cheap here and now.
Just like dot com and subprime, all the warning signs were there, and not many planned for it happening until it happened.
I don’t recall central banks printing unprecedented amounts of new money in those examples and seems to me COVID issues are now priced in and all that new money is gradually finding its way into equities and property.
Where else is it going to go.
I will say that the NASDAQ looks over valued though. But I don’t expect a crash.
No
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While I agree that the money printing was only invented after the GFC, that doesn't change the fact that if you bend something really hard it will eventually break. I am not necessarily waiting for a huge sell-off, but at some point the market will have to let some steam off. Those corrections have been short-lived during the last couple of months and I have little reason to believe that we will see a big one anytime soon. But when I see companies which have never turned a profit trading at 100 times revenue (SNOW), something tells me the upside is rather limited. Or Tesla, with accumulated losses of $5 bln and paying their CEO about twice as much compensation as the company has made in revenues since formation.
Just crazy, be careful what you are holding in your portfolio.
Agreed, there are some crazy valuations kicking around and they could see correction but I don’t see markets collapsing.
There is a huge raft of new money looking for a home.
Last edited by Montello; 8th December 2020 at 22:49.
Footsie now 20% up last 6 weeks
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Anyone know how an IPO works if you didn’t subscribe at the outset?
Air B&B goes live today and is expected to jump from its $68 opening price.
I can set a fill/kill buy on my HL account but it says that there is an “auction” once the IPO starts at 14.30pm and the price I’ll get will be the post auction price.
I assume this means that it’s impossible for a small time private investor like me to buy in at the opening price, and I’d have to set a full/kill price that’s substantially higher to be able to get in on the supposed initial rise?
With all this new money making things go mad at the moment, I’d guess it’ll be a sure fire way to make a good chunk of cash tomorrow.
Last edited by mr noble; 10th December 2020 at 20:02.
Too late. It debuted at $146 a share.
Nice for those who bought in at $68!!
Why fill/kill? That is the most nonsensical order type there is.
If you want to get an IPO allotment, you need to apply for it through your bank. Chance of success is zero. The $68 was not the opening price but the price shares were allocated to winners of the "allocation lottery". The opening price was $146.
We haven't seen this crazy since 2000. You know what came after that, don't you?
I got nervous and cashed out of most of my equities yesterday...now at 88% cash, 12% selected equity stocks. At 30,000 and a raging global pandemic, how much upside can there be? Gotta remember I'm already retired (73) and can't risk a market collapse. I'll sleep better now...
Where will Airbnb and Doordash be in six months?
I'm retired at 55, I'm the other way, 80% equity
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But you (probably) have decades for the market to rise...I don't.
PC: at your time of life, don't chase growth. Now is a time of safe and probably small returns. Gambling and high risk is an approach for an earlier time.
Fill/kill is the only option on HL while the market is closed.
Thank you for the info re IPOs.
As PC thinks - I agree. Best to not be holding any of these crazy sticks just now. It seems that the signals are there for another dip brewing.
Different strategies required comparing 55 to 73 ...But you (probably) have decades for the market to rise...I don't.
Also depends on the size of your asset pile ... good luck to you both.
Plenty of commentators predicting a post COVID boom ... and plenty of bears ...
I have no idea any more although I’m betting on the bull but holding some back for the bear ...
Depends on what you are investing in
Luxury goods, life will be good, plenty of money with nowhere to spend it, should see a boom especially where big in China as they came out of lockdown first
On the other hand, any businesses exposed to rising unemployment and general discretionary spend are in trouble short term e.g. retail banks
As with all types of investing, all determined by your time horizon
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The price/earnings ratio is under 15 in the U.K. compared with 22 in the US. #Equities #FTSE
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i bought ftse pretty much on that basis, hope no deal doesnt scupper me
If you mean FTSE100, I think significant proportion of earnings are overseas and non-sterling. FTSE250 very different.
Might be useful to read up on something called the W effect in these turbulent times.
Passive investor here so my answer is “who knows, who cares”. If I was confident in my ability to time the market, I wouldn’t be in passive funds.
A lot of people confuse investing with speculating here.
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good point, so a weaker pound might actually be a good thing. but then maybe tariffs etc will make things harder for the big UK companies? seems very hard to map out the full consequences..
Anyone know what triggered AZN taking a bath this AM?
Agreeing to buy Alexion for 39bn
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Oh
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All my gains will go tomorrow. Tomorrow will be a RED day.Oh
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This is a non entity. This strain has been seen in other countries already, just it is the first time seen in the UK. Moreover scientists have identified something like 40 strains thus far of COVID19. That isn't to say we won't get a real nasty strain one day, it is just that statistically this is very unlikely to be itOh
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Good, as long as that's well known,
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Not too helpful in terms of where to invest funds.
This was the government trying to scare folks into following the tier 3 rules in my view. Whitty said they didn’t even know if it was responsible for accelerating cases in London.
Well it worked in our house. Clever politics to be fair
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Really?
Really what? Did you watch the briefing?
If by using the words ' new strain' rather than another naturally occurring mutation of which we already have over 40 and they are all known as this the latest one he wanted to have an impact then it worked
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That’s the point I was trying to make.
Yeah I agree, we were like wtaf new covids holy sh1t and then Whitty just didn't even break into a sweat
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Almost $100 bln in Tesla calls outstanding, 17% of all US options.
This will not have a happy ending.
https://twitter.com/Teutoburg1/statu...68205809815552
I’m not sure what that is showing, what does it mean?
It shows the Dollar value of all outstanding options on US exchanges. 17% of those are for Tesla shares.
Meaning there is a wall of money trying to buy the stock?
There is a ton of robinhooders speculating on it going higher. I doubt any of them have the funds to actually exercise the options.
If they wanted to buy the stock, why waste money on time value in options?
Ah, understood.
Its the same core virus and not a "new" Covid, new strains will be happening all the time just like it does with flu, call it evolving, mutating or just watch The Thing (1982 version) to get a better idea..
Yep, clever politics
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