Reply With QuoteA long but interesting read
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/...orthinking.pdf
Who makes Haz suits?
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A long but interesting read
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/...orthinking.pdf
I am flabbergasted that the head of an investment firm wouldn't know how US GDP growth is expressed versus the rest of the world. Any economics student learns that within the first five minutes of their first course. Other than that, I find it interesting, if somewhat off the rails at times (the thing with an infinite P/E ratio is rather bollocks as he forgets the risk premium).Originally Posted by klunk
But always interesting to read from people who have an open mind.
If you are interested in free thinkers, I can recommend James Montier: here.
Just had my annual statement through the post and I'm -5.2%. I was expecting to be at least -10% if not more.
Dies Irae in the markets so far today
My future invest will be in a Grand Seiko because GS is currently undervalued
Don't miss the Warren Buffet versus Winkelvoss Bros fight, featuring Elon Musk and Davey Day Trader.
The world is coming to its end, probably before next weekend. Better buy gold, silver and Bitcoin.
'Elon Musk is going to destroy gold '
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Everyone talking about the 'big correction '. When second wave hits, winter spike hits, Trump is thumped, blah blah blah
Will still be stuff to buy, like shares in food banks
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Winkelvoss brothers ... 😳
Honestly, I don't believe they are as stupid as they come across in that video (they both went to Harvard). I think they were just telling porkies for Portnoy, who really is more than stupid but even he didn't really buy the story (or maybe he did?).
If people buy Bitcoin because they think gold will debased due to Musk opening a gold mine on an asteroid I think man kind is doomed.
Last edited by Montello; 15th August 2020 at 15:25.
That was the point of my original post above. If the Winkelvoss, Portnoy and Musk are moving an asset, it's time to buy silver.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I follow this thread avidly and it has contributed to my reaching the (potentially wrong) conclusion that the equities market is overheated. So I've decided to reallocate my pension out of S&P 500 and FTSE 250 tracker funds for the time being (hopefully a matter of months rather than years) and am considering putting it all into Gilts funds. Grateful for any advice/suggestions (along the lines of 'safe haven' rather than silver or Tesla!). Thanks
If we actually see rising interest rates, gilts will perform poorly (negatively) just as well. Only cash is safe then.
But I wouldn't be too worried about rising rates, ain't going to happen in a deflationary environment - so I suppose (short) gilts are fine.
Thank you Raffe - your opinion is one I value
For the short term cash is king imho.
Thanks Montello, though my simplistic understanding is that (generally speaking) gilts give a higher return than cash and are unlikely to be impacted by an interest rate hike for at least a few months given the current economic climate. What am I missing?
The yield pickup is neglectable, you need to go to 10 years in order to have any yield (0.25%). But if rates will rise, you will lose on those bonds.
So I would be in cash or in short dated gilts (if you want to diversify your credit risk).
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I've got a portfolio of funds that include fixed income funds. Since February the return after fees is currently 3.9% which I'm happy with, I'll probably never get the big gains of being 100% in equities but I prefer my investments to be boring.
The return is coming from lower yields and lower credit spreads. If and when those trends are reversing, you will see an adverse move in fund pricing.
I have done it.
On Friday I bought shares in Barrick Gold.
I am not usually one to track the Sage of Omaha, but this move actually makes sense. If Gold really sees demand increasing, I want to own a profitable mining company as a leveraged bet on the underlying gold price. It is only a small position (5%9 and I have no intention to change that, but from a portfolio diversification point of view, this should work well.
That doesn't mean I think Gold should go higher, I am just acknowledging it may well move higher.
...
edit: ah, raffe responded far more eloquently on the fixed income question
on gold, i think the risk of inflation can't be ruled out... so some exposure does make sense to me.
Last edited by robinsongreen68; 16th August 2020 at 10:46.
What made you choose ABX over any other miners, Raffe? And why a miner over a gold ETC like SGLN?
Just curious and keen to learn from you.
Warren Buffet has just bought into Barrick gold. He certainly knows a thing or two.
I don't want to own gold, I want to own a company. No way I would ever buy gold, much less an ETC.
By the way, ABX is now GOLD, since the Rangold merger. I admit I haven't done research other that they are cash flow positive - no way I have an edge over Buffet and never forget the power of the announcement that Buffet is in. Just going with the flow.
Indeed. GOLD != [Gg]old.
Might want to look into Centamin, they have good credentials..
Raffe jumps on the gold bandwagon. Bitcoin next?
Last edited by Montello; 16th August 2020 at 20:48.
Not in this life.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Really? But Musk is going to mine gold on an asteroid ...
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Very good
If there ever was a sell indicator....
I have a few million lira notes I collected some years ago on a business trip to Istanbul.
I recall my taxi to the hotel cost 14 million.
I have gifted them to young nieces and nephews over the years.
Gifted them their first million.
Holding capital for residents is a tricky business with decades of history with hyper inflation.
Some years...? The Turkish Lira denomination was cut by six digits almost 16 years ago. Since then, the largest denomination bill is 200 Lira.
Time flies ...
Nice open for Barrick today. Up 10%. Good job Raffe.
Not the best stock in my portfolio today.
Last edited by Raffe; 17th August 2020 at 16:05.
Which one is the Tesla short?
I am long some Tesla Puts, but they are by now so far out of the money that they are most probably a total writeoff. They are not in this list, these are only the equities amd index futures.
I added the tickers now in the post above
GOLD isn’t listed on the HL platform.
They have ABX but not GOLD.
No idea if it’s the same or a different share.
On the basis that if it’s good enough for Warren, it’s good enough for me....I did do a fill or kill order at 37CAD last night, but sadly it got killed rather than filled at 2.30pm today. Oh well.
Last edited by mr noble; 17th August 2020 at 17:27.
I suppose it's the same share, Barrick traded under ABX until a couple of years ago in NY and still does in Toronto.
What is it with these fill or kill orders? In which context would those make any sense at all? I heard Ryan mentioning them a few times, most nonsensical order type I have ever heard of.
You can’t buy the share when the market is closed, so rather than sit at the desk waiting for the 14.30GMT bell to toll, you just do an order which is executed when the market opens. If the price you input is attainable the order completes (and the best price that can be had) and if the price has already gone up then your order can’t be completed so it gets “killed”.
I’m sure you already knew all that.
I hoped the computer would bang in my order at Friday’s close price, but when I looked at about 14.33GMT ABX was already up 10%. I wasn’t as keen to buy in at that level.
Have you tried searching for GOLD US using the SEDOL instead which is 2024677? ABX is the dual listed version (Toronto listing) and priced in CAD rather than USD.
Last edited by ~dadam02~; 17th August 2020 at 18:49.
I know what a FOK order does. What I do not understand is why you would kill it if it doesn't fill at the open? Why not just place a limit order and buy your shares if the market gets to your desired level after the opening auction? What's the difference if it gets filled at the open or afterwards? If you keep using these, you must miss one hell of a lot of executions because you delete your order just because it doesn't fill on the first trade of the day.
Also, given that Barrick already traded at USD 29,14 (= CAD 38.46) after hours in New York, it was extremely unlikely that your level would be reached, especially not at the open.
You are trying way too hard.
I love this thread but some of the language is way over my head, think I need to take a crash course in investing!!
You don’t get that option on HL outside trading hours.
It’s either wait for the market to open and do a regular buy or it’s a fill/kill order.
I thought that was strange too and would have happily just set a buy price.
I suspect it’s because it’s on a foreign exchange. I’m pretty sure you can set a limit order outside of LSE trading hours.
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