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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #2901
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    State your bet then I'll let you know

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    One of us puts a price and the other says if it will end higher or lower.

    You can pick if you quote the price or trade on it.

  2. #2902
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    Quote Originally Posted by vulcangascompany View Post
    Mmmmm...tricky i think theres two possibilities- one we blast through $50 and therefore go to low 60s or we get bogged down the run up to $50 in the mid 40s. It’s a massive historic target and it failed last time and everyone will be nervous and profit taking (as i will be).

    Sold all mine yesterday and around 25% of my gold. Keeping that in cash, my punts that got laughed at here (Boohoo, IAG, Microfocus) all significantly up and I'll leave Boohoo and IAG in play for another 100% uplift before getting rid.

    ANything I sell stays as cash, but each month my monthly contribution goes primarily into Vanguard LS 100, plus Fundsmith and also BG American

  3. #2903
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    One of us puts a price and the other says if it will end higher or lower.

    You can pick if you quote the price or trade on it.
    Go for it, pick a price

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  4. #2904
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Go for it, pick a price

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    30 bucks

  5. #2905
    Higher, bet accepted , 50 quid for the Fundy

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  6. #2906
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    Quote Originally Posted by vulcangascompany View Post
    Mmmmm...tricky i think theres two possibilities- one we blast through $50 and therefore go to low 60s or we get bogged down the run up to $50 in the mid 40s. It’s a massive historic target and it failed last time and everyone will be nervous and profit taking (as i will be).
    But... living in unprecedented times. Anything is possible


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  7. #2907
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Higher, bet accepted , 50 quid for the Fundy

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    OK, we take last London fixing of 2020, OK?

  8. #2908
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    OK, we take last London fixing of 2020, OK?
    Deal, you are in charge

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  9. #2909
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    Good to see the fundraiser getting more from this thread than any SC post!

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  10. #2910
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Good to see the fundraiser getting more from this thread than any SC post!

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    That is at least the fourth 50 quid wager from this thread.

  11. #2911
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That is at least the fourth 50 quid wager from this thread.
    Ours was £100. And I think you will win that as Avacta's test looks to be delayed a bit..

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  12. #2912
    An offer to donate into the Fundy should never be turned down

    Everyone buy silver please my mate burger Bob says it's the best cheers

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  13. #2913
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    An offer to donate into the Fundy should never be turned down

    Everyone buy silver please my mate burger Bob says it's the best cheers

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    Back in March it was $12, looking at it now that is cheap, if it hits that again I'll be taking burger Bob's advice..

  14. #2914
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    All this short term volatility is just noise. What I’m really trying to picture is the long term outlook.

    One thing I think we can all agree on is zero interest rates are here for a long time.

    Next, I think we can expect more major spending from governments and more central banks stimulus.

    I don’t think we can agree on the prospect of inflation.

    We can probably expect more tax on visible wealth, property and equities?

    We have low levels of corporate competition as many markets are broken so we have many default monopolies and labour has little power keeping wages low.

    We have limited “homes” for capital so equities will likely remain expensive on most traditional measures.

    So, what does all this mean? I think it just means the rich get richer and big corporations with do better than smaller companies.

    Anyone got any alternate views?

  15. #2915
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Ours was £100. And I think you will win that as Avacta's test looks to be delayed a bit..

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    Oh yes, totally forgot about that one.

    I was actually convinced that I'd lose that as I originally meant to offer a bet against any vaccine but not a 'rather simplistic' antibody test. But then I didn't want to chicken out and as it was for charity I agreed anyway.

    Three weeks left but just looked at the last company disclosure and I agree it won't happen before end of the month.
    Last edited by Raffe; 11th August 2020 at 16:34.

  16. #2916
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    I think you're spot on Montello, the political/financial orthodox response is is to print more money and chuck it at the bourses where the wealthy are already overrepresented, exacerbating the Wall St/main St divergence, anti monopoly/anti trust legislation hasn't kept up with the mega corporations/ Tech Co's and the consumers are relentlessly told cheap is a virtue over all else. How could it be otherwise. The gini coefficient goes further the wrong way.
    Last edited by Passenger; 11th August 2020 at 16:38.

  17. #2917
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I think you're spot on Montello, the political/financial orthodox response is is to print more money and chuck it at the bourses where the wealthy are already overrepresented, exacerbating the Wall St/main St divergence, anti monopoly/anti trust legislation hasn't kept up with the mega corporations/ Tech Co's and the consumers are relentlessly told cheap is a virtue over all else. How could it be otherwise. The gini coefficient goes further the wrong way.
    In summary I think it all boils down to a buy recommendation which goes against my every instinct when looking at the awful state of the economy. It may all be broken but politicians will keep pushing forwards and it will be big corporate that is the bulldozer.

  18. #2918
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    My TUI shares have gone from 2.82 to 3.82 in a week, unfortunately I bought previously at 3.74 but still plenty of room in them if travel improves, might be an amateurish mistake but I’m tempted to hang in there with my current shares, bar BP they are all way down on pre COVID prices..

  19. #2919
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    What I will never understand is why people always have to buy the fallen angels, the ones which are down 90% or more from the peak. If you feel you want to be invested, by all means buy stocks. Buy companies which are making money, companies which are paying dividends, companies which are growing. But why do people always end up with owning stocks where the survival of the company is under threat? It becomes a binary play on survival, up one day because of a potential vaccine, down the next because airlines will have to suffer from another lockdown. The business of airlines won't be returning to pre-Covid for 5 years, if ever. If I want to invest my money, I look for something with predictability, not a roulette-type bet on black or red. But by all means, knock yourself out if that is what gives you the thrill.

  20. #2920
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    What I will never understand is why people always have to buy the fallen angels, the ones which are down 90% or more from the peak. If you feel you want to be invested, by all means buy stocks. Buy companies which are making money, companies which are paying dividends, companies which are growing. But why do people always end up with owning stocks where the survival of the company is under threat? It becomes a binary play on survival, up one day because of a potential vaccine, down the next because airlines will have to suffer from another lockdown. The business of airlines won't be returning to pre-Covid for 5 years, if ever. If I want to invest my money, I look for something with predictability, not a roulette-type bet on black or red. But by all means, knock yourself out if that is what gives you the thrill.
    The thing with airlines is the pent up demand is there. We cannot say for sure they won't return to pre covid levels within 5 years. That assumes the status quo remains or that these businesses don't adapt.

  21. #2921
    Business far more likely to adapt to the new ways of working via Zoom meetings etc and dramatically reduced cost, it's not just about holidays, it's how business will use technology to avoid travel

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  22. #2922
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    A lot of folks love to bag a 'bargain', at least the appearance of one. And perhaps the more profound the market disconnect from the fundamentals then the magical thinking just gets even stronger, until it finally crashes into reality. Just an idea.

  23. #2923
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    What I will never understand is why people always have to buy the fallen angels, the ones which are down 90% or more from the peak. If you feel you want to be invested, by all means buy stocks. Buy companies which are making money, companies which are paying dividends, companies which are growing. But why do people always end up with owning stocks where the survival of the company is under threat? It becomes a binary play on survival, up one day because of a potential vaccine, down the next because airlines will have to suffer from another lockdown. The business of airlines won't be returning to pre-Covid for 5 years, if ever. If I want to invest my money, I look for something with predictability, not a roulette-type bet on black or red. But by all means, knock yourself out if that is what gives you the thrill.
    Didn't you yourself buy some wirecard? Some on here are short term traders, but you're right, long term investments should be based on strong and consistent underlying fundamentals.

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  24. #2924
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    What I will never understand is why people always have to buy the fallen angels, the ones which are down 90% or more from the peak. If you feel you want to be invested, by all means buy stocks. Buy companies which are making money, companies which are paying dividends, companies which are growing. But why do people always end up with owning stocks where the survival of the company is under threat? It becomes a binary play on survival, up one day because of a potential vaccine, down the next because airlines will have to suffer from another lockdown. The business of airlines won't be returning to pre-Covid for 5 years, if ever. If I want to invest my money, I look for something with predictability, not a roulette-type bet on black or red. But by all means, knock yourself out if that is what gives you the thrill.
    As I have said, I’m an amateur at trading and yes you could say a fool and his money, but I have so far enjoyed the ups and downs and at the moment sitting okay.
    I don’t expect my shares to return to pre COVID prices anytime soon if ever and that is not my outlook, I have just been taking the short term rises, but yes it is dangerous ground.

    I totally agree with your long term outlook with strong investable companies, but if I wanted to take that route I would personally invest in a share tracker and let the pro’s invest and grow my money over a long period..

  25. #2925
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    Good week so far.👍

  26. #2926
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Didn't you yourself buy some wirecard? Some on here are short term traders, but you're right, long term investments should be based on strong and consistent underlying fundamentals.

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    I was short Wirecard at 105, then covered at 38 (should have sold more as it was clear at the time it was a donut). One week later they were trading at 1.13, only sellers in the market ahead of the weekend - so I took a bet with the aim to sell for 2 to 4 on Monday. When a 1.40 bid appeared an hour later I dumped them again - only to see 8 or 9 on Monday morning. Well well.

  27. #2927
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    Silver -12% ouch! Gold -5% ouch.
    Last edited by Skyman; 11th August 2020 at 19:09.

  28. #2928
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    Silver -12% ouch! Gold -5% ouch.
    It has been stated several times about the volatility of silver

  29. #2929
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    Silver -12% ouch! Gold -5% ouch.
    Surprised it didn't happen sooner.
    I'll wait it out a little and then top up on my silver

  30. #2930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    Silver -12% ouch! Gold -5% ouch.
    Buy the dip

  31. #2931
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Paul Krugman on gold. The comments are also interesting.

    No serious economist talks about a money-like utility of gold. It doesn't exist.
    Maybe uncle Paul really deserved his Nobel prize?

  32. #2932
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    Silver -12% ouch! Gold -5% ouch.
    It's crazy that in these volatile times a 5% do is 'meh'! I'm glad I sold all my silver yesterday.

  33. #2933
    The 2 Biden VP Picks who really could hurt the market are
    Kamala Harris, she wants to tax every trade
    Liz Warren, raises corporate taxes and capital gains

    Markets not yet worries about that

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  34. #2934
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Sold all mine yesterday and around 25% of my gold. Keeping that in cash, my punts that got laughed at here (Boohoo, IAG, Microfocus) all significantly up and I'll leave Boohoo and IAG in play for another 100% uplift before getting rid.

    ANything I sell stays as cash, but each month my monthly contribution goes primarily into Vanguard LS 100, plus Fundsmith and also BG American
    Im curious why u think IAG will rally 100%?

    They are trying to push ahead with a rights issue of 2.7 billion (current market cap is 4.4 billion), That's a pretty big dilution.

    They are still burning through £200 million euros cash a week.

    The summer holiday season is pretty much a write off this year, most exhibitions/conferences cancelled till next year & we haven't considered a potential 2nd wave this winter,all whilst burning through 200 million a week.

    Airlines have to be one one of the most affected business by cov19 (most other business can adjust/change model)

    To me airlines are what bank shares were in the credit crunch, most bank shares are still significantly down for their pre credit crunch prices and thats taking into account gov bailouts/buying stakes in the bank (& 12 years later .... )

  35. #2935
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    Im curious why u think IAG will rally 100%?

    They are trying to push ahead with a rights issue of 2.7 billion (current market cap is 4.4 billion), That's a pretty big dilution.

    They are still burning through £200 million euros cash a week.

    The summer holiday season is pretty much a write off this year, most exhibitions/conferences cancelled till next year & we haven't considered a potential 2nd wave this winter,all whilst burning through 200 million a week.

    Airlines have to be one one of the most affected business by cov19 (most other business can adjust/change model)

    To me airlines are what bank shares were in the credit crunch, most bank shares are still significantly down for their pre credit crunch prices and thats taking into account gov bailouts/buying stakes in the bank (& 12 years later .... )
    ^This.

    Anyone interested in what a YUUUGE capital increase to safe a company has on future stock price have a look at Citibank:


  36. #2936
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    — Lots of sense —
    Difficult to disagree with any of this. Business travel has changed forever in my view.

  37. #2937
    Biden picks Harris

    Silver now down 14%

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  38. #2938
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Biden picks Harris

    Silver now down 14%

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    What does the price of silver have to do with Harris?

  39. #2939
    That would be telling



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  40. #2940
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    That would be telling



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    Would you elaborate?

  41. #2941
    Afaik, they aren't connected, I didn't mean them to be

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  42. #2942
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Biden picks Harris

    Silver now down 14%

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    Will be buying a load tmw then. Easy 14% profit

  43. #2943
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    If the appointment of Harris increases Biden's chance to become President, this can probably be seen as a short term negative for markets. Trump has been guided by his wish to open the economy to prop up the financial markets because he thinks the likelyhood of his reelection goes up and down with the stock market. My expectation would be that Biden is much less interest in the performance of markets and as such wouldn't mind to take decisions which are not supporting the market short term. On the other hand, Trump's bungled coronavirus response will have lasting consequences for companies and the economy. His 2018 tax cut instigated a stock market rallye at the price of a breathtaking expansion of US government debt, never happened during an economic upturn. The corona crisis then broke records in terms of the required government response, which led to even higher government spending, of which much went to waste by ending in billionaires' pockets rather than with people in need. I expect that a lot more money will be needed to keep the bottom 30% of American families over water and under a roof.

    It will take generations to pay back this debt and Trump's legacy will be felt for a very long time. But in the end, the end to billionaire grifting and disenfranchement of the poor will be a positive for society at large and eventually also the economy and financial markets. Might just take a couple of years for it all to recover.

  44. #2944
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Tesla after hours:


  45. #2945
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Will be buying a load tmw then. Easy 14% profit
    Easy profit, 100% certain.


  46. #2946
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    Silver up 0.1%, the fightback begins...

  47. #2947
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Tesla after hours:
    They announced a 5:1 stock split - stock pops 6.5%. Totally normal, haven't seen anything like this since February 2000.

    If you needed any prove how bonkers this market is, here you have it.




    Big brains Jack and Kevin from the Yahoo! message board - there are hundreds more:

    Last edited by Raffe; 11th August 2020 at 22:34. Reason: added Jack and Kevin

  48. #2948
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    My TUI shares have gone from 2.82 to 3.82 in a week, unfortunately I bought previously at 3.74 but still plenty of room in them if travel improves, might be an amateurish mistake but I’m tempted to hang in there with my current shares, bar BP they are all way down on pre COVID prices..
    Actually I was thinking about buying airline shares now. Worse than this it can’t get right? But when there is blood in the streets


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  49. #2949
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    What I will never understand is why people always have to buy the fallen angels, the ones which are down 90% or more from the peak. If you feel you want to be invested, by all means buy stocks. Buy companies which are making money, companies which are paying dividends, companies which are growing. But why do people always end up with owning stocks where the survival of the company is under threat? It becomes a binary play on survival, up one day because of a potential vaccine, down the next because airlines will have to suffer from another lockdown. The business of airlines won't be returning to pre-Covid for 5 years, if ever. If I want to invest my money, I look for something with predictability, not a roulette-type bet on black or red. But by all means, knock yourself out if that is what gives you the thrill.
    If we learned one thing from the past, is that we will always get back to where we were before and beyond.
    To say now that aviation will never be like before is imo unrealistic. It will get back, and not only in 5 yrs, but quicker


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  50. #2950
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Lies, damn lies and statistics.

    Preceding the 18/1/80 gold price fall, the price had tripled in value in the previous 12 months.

    After the 31/1/03 fall, gold was back to the same price in June 2003. I know inflation was higher back then, but not disastrous considering economic conditions were benign.

    Preceding the 12/5/06 fall, gold had risen by 60% in the previous year.

    Now, onto this drop, 11 Aug 2020. In Sterling terms gold is only up 18% in the last year (28% USD).

    If you want to use historical data as the way forward, gold still has a long way to go yet.

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