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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #2801
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Have fun!
    Probably not as much fun as you had on that oil roller coaster ride :-)


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  2. #2802
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    Perfect example of someone who knows the two key points:

    1. Capacity for loss - you can actually afford to lose money as your final salary pension is your security.

    2. Understanding risk - you’re fully aware there’s an element of gamble and risk.

    Those things being addressed, then it’s down to whether you want to do it and in your case you do. Hopefully you’ll do very well :-)

    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Totally agree if the portfolio is your pension and wealth.

    I have a comfortable final salary pension I have not yet started taking. I’m in the fortunate position of not worrying about a portfolio.

    I want to gamble and take risks with spare money as I like the challenge and the buzz.

  3. #2803
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    In order for a commodity to seve as money, it needs two properties: scarcity and endorsement by governments.

    Gold did pretty well in terms of scarcity as mankind really struggled to dig it out of the ground for most of the time. I once read that we are currently excavating about 3,000 times as much gold as during the medevial ages, which probably compares about right with the amount of people on the planet with access to physical possessions (excluding peasants and serfs). The only period where supply exploded was when the Spanish raided the gold and silver of the Incas and Mayans, immediately resulting in 200 years of hyperinflation across Europe.

    The other things is the endorsement, since 1971 that one is missing and gold is money no more. It may still have some similar properties (relative stability and rather wide acceptance as a thing of value), though you would struggle to barter any goods against gold as it is far removed from people's every-day affairs.

    So, history is just history and no matter how much the gold bugs are preaching: gold is no money and will likely never again become money.
    Governments still endorse gold in a roundabout way as their central banks still hold it.

    Yes, we have to exchange it for fiat, but the retained purchasing power particular in times of stress is better than that of the coins or notes in my pocket over the longer term. Stocks and shares will outperform gold in the long run, but as part of a balanced portfolio it has its place as you mentioned earlier.

    I would not rule out a currency in the future being backed by gold - this may not be a major currency, but it would have far-reaching consequences if it were to happen. Stranger things have happened like Trump in the Whitehouse...

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  4. #2804
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    In order for a commodity to seve as money, it needs two properties: scarcity and endorsement by governments.

    Gold did pretty well in terms of scarcity as mankind really struggled to dig it out of the ground for most of the time. I once read that we are currently excavating about 3,000 times as much gold as during the medevial ages, which probably compares about right with the amount of people on the planet with access to physical possessions (excluding peasants and serfs). The only period where supply exploded was when the Spanish raided the gold and silver of the Incas and Mayans, immediately resulting in 200 years of hyperinflation across Europe.

    The other things is the endorsement, since 1971 that one is missing and gold is money no more. It may still have some similar properties (relative stability and rather wide acceptance as a thing of value), though you would struggle to barter any goods against gold as it is far removed from people's every-day affairs.

    So, history is just history and no matter how much the gold bugs are preaching: gold is no money and will likely never again become money.
    Gold isn’t money or a currency as it’s not getting government back and it can’t easily be used to exchange for goods.

    However it has been used for ever as a store or capital and I don’t see that ending any time soon.

    All the time governments are devaluing their own currencies I expect gold to hold up.

  5. #2805
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Its interesting that when your life depends on being able to buy yourself out of a sticky situation gold is the answer, interesting read about the SAS carrying 20 sovereigns stitched into their clothing..

    Essentially, gold is and always has been universal money that can be used anywhere and is accepted everywhere.

  6. #2806
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Its interesting that when your life depends on being able to buy yourself out of a sticky situation gold is the answer, interesting read about the SAS carrying 20 sovereigns stitched into their clothing..

    Essentially, gold is and always has been universal money that can be used anywhere and is accepted everywhere.
    Haha, they would say that, wouldn't they? After all it's the business they are in.

  7. #2807
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Haha, they would say that, wouldn't they? After all it's the business they are in.
    Gold is basically an illusion that has fooled many over the years

  8. #2808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Haha, they would say that, wouldn't they? After all it's the business they are in.
    I like this quote -

    “Around my waist, however, on a one-inch webbing belt, was today’s star prize, about £1,700 in sterling, in the form of twenty gold sovereigns we had each been given as escape money"

    That's equal to each coin being worth £85, oh how times have changed..

  9. #2809
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Its interesting that when your life depends on being able to buy yourself out of a sticky situation gold is the answer, interesting read about the SAS carrying 20 sovereigns stitched into their clothing..

    Essentially, gold is and always has been universal money that can be used anywhere and is accepted everywhere.
    I went on a stag do 20 years ago and one of the blokes I met who was about 15 years older than me told me his life history at the bar one night. He’d been in business for years, gone bankrupt a couple of times, lost everything and came back again. Said when he was doing well he’d always buy a Rolex. His logic was that you could be anywhere in the world, in trouble and there was cash on your arm if you needed it. Also joked that when he went bust no one would ever know he had it. It was actually that night that first got me thinking about Rolexes. Maybe the special forces boys also wear Rolexes just in case they’ve run out of gold :-)



    Edit: my mate is a Major in the special forces and wears a special edition Bremont as do many of the regiment.

  10. #2810
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    When the proverbial his the fan, that Bremont will be worth 10 cents on the dollar. At most.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  11. #2811
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    [QUOTE=Devonian;5498196
    Edit: my mate is a Major in the special forces and wears a special edition Bremont as do many of the regiment.[/QUOTE]

    An SAS guy I know wears a Bremont Alt1, can’t see them being held in the same regard as a MilSub..

  12. #2812
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    When the proverbial his the fan, that Bremont will be worth 10 cents on the dollar. At most.
    You exaggerate - 5 cents at most

  13. #2813
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    You exaggerate - 5 cents at most
    If it’s a limited edition with a fingernail clipping in the movement from an applicable dictator it might hold a value.

  14. #2814
    Silver down 4%

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  15. #2815
    Gold down $33 an ounce

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  16. #2816
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    another "red" day for me except BT

  17. #2817
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Silver down 4%

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    4% down today after, what, 40 odd % up in recent weeks?

  18. #2818
    No idea, down today 4%

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  19. #2819
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    Why did silver/gold drop?

    Can’t find a reason for it.

  20. #2820
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Why did silver/gold drop?

    Can’t find a reason for it.
    Why did they rise last week?

    Can’t find a reason for it.

  21. #2821
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Why did silver/gold drop?

    Can’t find a reason for it.
    You're trolling, right?

  22. #2822
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Why did silver/gold drop?

    Can’t find a reason for it.
    Are you serious?
    Buckle up and enjoy the ride.😁

  23. #2823
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    I sense that something is happening in the markets right now. Nasdaq rolling over, some of the nonsensical Robinhood darlings falling apart. Watch out.

  24. #2824
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    Quote Originally Posted by studly View Post
    You're trolling, right?
    Not at all. There have been reasons as to why we’ve seen the rises and each days ups and downs. But today’s drop seemed odd as there was no “good” news in the markets.

    Oh well. I am certainly enjoying the ride. Best decision I’ve made....selling all equities and funds at the end of May and sticking 1/3rd in silver and gold. Wish I’d trusted my gut more and chucked the lot in.

    I’m 50% up on the silver and 15% up on gold.

    It’s strange to think that the only thing my entire SIPP and ISA is invested in is a few kilos of gold and about 50 kilos of silver.

  25. #2825
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Sorry but that allocation is absolute madness. Wish you luck, you'll need it.

    Edit: (just saw it is only invested to a third, so not that mad.)
    Last edited by Raffe; 7th August 2020 at 19:25. Reason: not that bad

  26. #2826
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Sorry but that allocation is absolute madness. Wish you luck, you'll need it.

    Edit: (just saw it is only invested to a third, so not that mad.)
    I only invested a third cause you told someone else it would be mad to put the lot into metals. Lol.


    I intend to sell out soon and then move back into equity funds (LS80) when/if reality kicks in and there’s another crash.

    Tricky bit will be timing the exit. I think there’s another month or more to go yet.

  27. #2827
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I only invested a third cause you told someone else it would be mad to put the lot into metals. Lol.


    I intend to sell out soon and then move back into equity funds (LS80) when/if reality kicks in and there’s another crash.

    Tricky bit will be timing the exit. I think there’s another month or more to go yet.
    LOLZ, sorry for the lack of performance.

  28. #2828
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I only invested a third cause you told someone else it would be mad to put the lot into metals. Lol.


    I intend to sell out soon and then move back into equity funds (LS80) when/if reality kicks in and there’s another crash.

    Tricky bit will be timing the exit. I think there’s another month or more to go yet.
    The crash will come when people say there won't be a crash. When they say there will be a crash psychologically people pile in when they think something is cheap and it holds the market up at a higher point than if people aren't expecting the crash and bail out in panic. My bet is as soon as a viable vaccine is announced the markets will tank.

  29. #2829
    That's simplistic imo, Brexit, China US trade deals, US politics , all sorts of stuff

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  30. #2830
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    My bet is as soon as a viable vaccine is announced the markets will tank.
    On the contrary, when a proven vaccine is announced, some stocks will be off to the races.

  31. #2831
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    The crash will come when people say there won't be a crash. When they say there will be a crash psychologically people pile in when they think something is cheap and it holds the market up at a higher point than if people aren't expecting the crash and bail out in panic. My bet is as soon as a viable vaccine is announced the markets will tank.
    the "crash" has happened

    there will of course be corrections and in that period it will all be about stock picking

    the world has accepted that they have to live with CV-19 and just get on with things - outbreaks will happen and kill people but now it's accepted that this will happen the world knows that economic activity will have to return to what it was.

    a vaccine is a "given" - it will come and some people will be treated but many will not

  32. #2832
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    Exciting times.

  33. #2833
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    My fund manager has done very well. Pre-Covid at 7 figures, post Covid the same. No need to tamper.

  34. #2834
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Not at all. There have been reasons as to why we’ve seen the rises and each days ups and downs. But today’s drop seemed odd as there was no “good” news in the markets.

    Oh well. I am certainly enjoying the ride. Best decision I’ve made....selling all equities and funds at the end of May and sticking 1/3rd in silver and gold. Wish I’d trusted my gut more and chucked the lot in.

    I’m 50% up on the silver and 15% up on gold.

    It’s strange to think that the only thing my entire SIPP and ISA is invested in is a few kilos of gold and about 50 kilos of silver.
    Worrying I would say.

  35. #2835
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    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    On the contrary, when a proven vaccine is announced, some stocks will be off to the races.
    Exactly.

  36. #2836
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    +1
    Agree. I would hate to see people lose a lot of money they cannot afford (I.e pension) in the pursuit of making a couple of % in times of massive volatility when we KNOW the fundamentals are dreadful. It is when and not if ... that there will be a correction.


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  37. #2837
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    My fund manager has done very well. Pre-Covid at 7 figures, post Covid the same. No need to tamper.
    No change in advice?

  38. #2838
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bondurant View Post
    No change in advice?
    Not really. A few trades but fundamentally no.

  39. #2839

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    My fund manager has done very well. Pre-Covid at 7 figures, post Covid the same. No need to tamper.
    Somehow I don’t think your post was related to the skill of your fund manager.

    But you and everyone on the forum know that.

  40. #2840
    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    My fund manager has done very well. Pre-Covid at 7 figures, post Covid the same. No need to tamper.
    Same what? Still at 7 figures or same 7 figures?

  41. #2841
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Same what? Still at 7 figures or same 7 figures?
    How far to the left is the decimal point in this?

  42. #2842
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  43. #2843
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    My fund manager has done very well. Pre-Covid at 7 figures, post Covid the same. No need to tamper.
    His salary perhaps

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  44. #2844
    Just had my first post lockdown haircut today. Pre-Covid £11. Post Covid £13. Same barbers.

    Stagflation here we come. I’m buying more gold.

  45. #2845
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Makes sense, you have convinced me. Where do I sign?

    Maybe some Tesla shares to round it off?
    Last edited by Raffe; 8th August 2020 at 20:07.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  46. #2846
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Very gifted.

  47. #2847
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by tiny73 View Post
    How far to the left is the decimal point in this?
    I imagine not a lot.

  48. #2848
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    I imagine not a lot.
    if you’re only imagining you might want a word or two with your fund manager

  49. #2849
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    Paul Krugman on gold. The comments are also interesting.

    No serious economist talks about a money-like utility of gold. It doesn't exist.

  50. #2850
    But SAS though?

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