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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #2501
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Trump seems to now be going with the herd immunity tactic ...

    New cases in the USA is ramping up big time but deaths are not, until the deaths figures increase people will just dismiss the new cases as a testing increase issue.

    Still some way to go to return to some global normality.

    But that said I’m starting to come round to the mantra that the market is not the economy. Although a disconnect as large as the current gaps seems unsustainable. But where else do you put your capital?
    In a sock.

  2. #2502
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Oxford will release initial data from Stage 3 Covid Vaccine trials tomorrow. The rumours (including supposedly leaked sources) is that the results are very positive and that the vaccine provides not only antibody protection but also T Cell protection (which may indicate a longer protective period). This differs from the Moderna vaccine which just produced an antibody response. Apparently (again rumour until proven or not tomorrow) the vaccine is well on course for Sptember licencing and deployment of the millions of doses that were produced 'at risk'. Apparently it is also safe for immuno-compromised patients too.

    Probably the statement from Oxford will just say something along the lines of 'vaccine is safe and creates immune response at both antibody and T Cell level'. Hyperbole isn't a scientist 'thing' however analysts will be reading between the lines (and will probably know the content aready).

    If this is indeed positive I expect the markets to react accordingly and I'm happy I have AZN. Of course the results could be that the vaccine turns people into zombies but the intel is that this will be good news.
    Last edited by ryanb741; 19th July 2020 at 22:27.

  3. #2503
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Ryan, do you know how this development squares with recent theories that a) antibody immunity only lasts a short period, and b) the COVID-19 virus is already mutating, which could frustrate current efforts to create a vaccine?

  4. #2504
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Ryan, do you know how this development squares with recent theories that a) antibody immunity only lasts a short period, and b) the COVID-19 virus is already mutating, which could frustrate current efforts to create a vaccine?
    Hi. Honest answer is I'm not a virologist so all I'm able to do is respond with what I've read which is that antibodies are often something that disappears anyway and that it is T Cells that provide long term 'memory' in recognising a virus and mobilising the body to fight it (such as working in tandem with B cells to produce more antibodies). So if antibodies wane after a few months (seems they do) then this isn't necessarily something to be alarmed about as it is frequently seen with viruses. There have been some anecdotal reports of reinfections but nothing proven and in any case with millions infected and only a handful of possible reinfections it isn't a worry yet.

    Re mutations, this is typical with all viruses. Coronaviruses mutate slowly and the mutations thus far haven't been anything that would prevent the vaccine from working. That being said with such a large number of infections worldwide (and each infection providing an opportunity for mutation) then you never know we may get a nastier strain but typically viruses mutate to a more benign form. No guarantee of course.

    The actual elephant in the closet is influenza - that is an unstable virus compared to Covid and frequently mutates (hence new vaccines needed each year for whatever strains are prevalent at the time). Flu is a ticking time bomb and it is only a matter of time until we get a bastard strain that makes Covid look like a picnic in comparison.

    If anything positive comes from Covid it might be a better realisation of how vulnerable we are to viruses, how to mitigate these risks and have a more globally consistent response next time.
    Last edited by ryanb741; 20th July 2020 at 00:31.

  5. #2505
    Wirecard's dramatic fall is something we should become familiar with in these crazy markets. I don't think this FT in-depth was shared, but worth a read - https://www.ft.com/content/511ecf86-...6-b8ebda4cc669

  6. #2506
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    Wirecard's dramatic fall is something we should become familiar with in these crazy markets. I don't think this FT in-depth was shared, but worth a read - https://www.ft.com/content/511ecf86-...6-b8ebda4cc669

    ...story continues here: https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...n-intel-links/

  7. #2507
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    I owned some Synairgen shares a few months ago and made a small profit, from there they dropped to 35p last Friday, today so far today they have hit £1.74 +367%!!!

    Apparently positive CV results from their tests..

  8. #2508
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I owned some Synairgen shares a few months ago and made a small profit, from there they dropped to 35p last Friday, today so far today they have hit £1.74 +367%!!!

    Apparently positive CV results from their tests..
    Same here.. Bought at last peak April 14th.. Been underwater ever since... til today.

  9. #2509
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    Same here.. Bought at last peak April 14th.. Been underwater ever since... til today.
    The power of pharma in these times is crazy if you hit the right one..

  10. #2510
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    Wirecard's dramatic fall is something we should become familiar with in these crazy markets. I don't think this FT in-depth was shared, but worth a read - https://www.ft.com/content/511ecf86-...6-b8ebda4cc669
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Looks like Mr Marsalek may not have trusted the conventional channels to make his personal international monetary transfers. Quelle surprise.

    https://www.theblockcrypto.com/linke...-russia-report

    (I haven't followed the links through so I don't know if they add anything of significance.)

  11. #2511
    Incredible story , the Wirecard thing, looks like a few Russians got rich

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  12. #2512
    Master TKH's Avatar
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    Well i had a tough week last week as Amazon inexplicably dropped each day and my Netflix punt did not work out quite as i had planned but hey keep hold as i think fundamentally its sound...

    Thankfully Amazon rebounded today by 6% as we speak or 100 billion ish ...sadly not all of it mine haha keep rocking Senor Bezos....

  13. #2513
    Silver doing ok last few days

  14. #2514
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    Quote Originally Posted by miguelh34 View Post
    Silver doing ok last few days
    Funnily enough I invested moderately in 3LSI yesterday so definitely a happy day today.

  15. #2515
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    Quote Originally Posted by 33JS View Post
    I'm not sure about travel. Cruises will be tarnished for a long time to come as floating bio-farms . Some airlines will be gone. Companies who are forced to video conference may never change back.

    If you're looking for recovery then long term oil may be decent. Oil is down not only due to Corvid but Saudi fecking around and over supplying to force Russia and the US to cut back. There's a double recovery position with big oil...
    I would rather go for new energy, I think this crisis will be a life changer..

  16. #2516
    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Funnily enough I invested moderately in 3LSI yesterday so definitely a happy day today.
    Don't hold it too long them products are nasty!

  17. #2517
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    And take a look at alfen specific

  18. #2518
    Master ~dadam02~'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by miguelh34 View Post
    Don't hold it too long them products are nasty!
    Totally

  19. #2519
    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Totally
    Rally getting stronger! 25/30 dollar silver September!?

  20. #2520
    Love the Forbes headline today

    "Tesla is America’s most hated (shorted) stock"

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  21. #2521
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    Musk now worth $74 billion and 5th richest man - Tesla worry more than GM, Ford, BMW another one that escapes me combined - crazy times!

    Bezos worth $189 billion and his wealth rose by $13 billion in ONE DAY!!!

    The world has gone mad.

  22. #2522
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    I read somewhere that it is because Tesla is shorted so much that the stock rises as people shorting them are forced to consolidate their positions by buying the stock at the higher rate.

    Some utter cretins on the markets - AZN DOWN 3% despite basically being on the cusp of having a mandatory vaccine that people will need at least 2 doses of and a likely annual booster. Great opportunity for people to get in at a discount - surely in a few months the stock will be 25% minimum up.

    My Boohoo punt starting to pay off last 2 days. IAG not so much.

    BTW my silver position has gone bonkers over the past 2 days. Anyone know the reason for this?

  23. #2523
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    BTW my silver position has gone bonkers over the past 2 days. Anyone know the reason for this?
    Werewolf population explosion?

  24. #2524
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I read somewhere that it is because Tesla is shorted so much that the stock rises as people shorting them are forced to consolidate their positions by buying the stock at the higher rate.

    Some utter cretins on the markets - AZN DOWN 3% despite basically being on the cusp of having a mandatory vaccine that people will need at least 2 doses of and a likely annual booster. Great opportunity for people to get in at a discount - surely in a few months the stock will be 25% minimum up.

    My Boohoo punt starting to pay off last 2 days. IAG not so much.

    BTW my silver position has gone bonkers over the past 2 days. Anyone know the reason for this?
    Gold rises silver plays catch up

  25. #2525
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    [QUOTE=ryanb741;5484670BTW my silver position has gone bonkers over the past 2 days. Anyone know the reason for this?[/QUOTE]

    JP Morgan thrown in the towel on naked shorting of Silver?
    Only time will tell👍

  26. #2526
    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    JP Morgan thrown in the towel on naked shorting of Silver?
    Only time will tell
    I thought JPM have been out of their shorts for a while (as indicated by their massive stack) in contrast to other banks being caught short - Scotiabank is now out of this market.
    It's a fascinating story - why has JPM built up an enormous pile of silver, do they know something?? Anyone else sense a big run up..
    Last edited by vulcangascompany; 22nd July 2020 at 01:05.

  27. #2527
    Up over night in Asian markets 22.40$

  28. #2528
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Is silver used in industrial applications? If so maybe that's a reason it is spiking - investors betting on increased demand as the economy roars back

  29. #2529
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Is silver used in industrial applications? If so maybe that's a reason it is spiking - investors betting on increased demand as the economy roars back
    Industrial/safe heaven/Jewellery

  30. #2530
    Master tiny73's Avatar
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    Sprott Silver Trust filing for $1.5bn of physical silver for delivery (8.8% of annual production) causing a massive short squeeze on silver. It’s got some catching up to do with gold in addition.

  31. #2531
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    I find it amusing that everybody seems to agree that silver will go up only nobody knows why. Industrial demand, short squeeze?

    In reality we see lots of investors who have missed out on the gold rallye who strongly believe silver will automatically catch up. As long as enough people believe that, it will eventually happen, and judging by recent crowd behaviour it will almost certainly happen.

    If that's good enough a reason for you to pile in, then go ahead and enjoy the ride. To the moon!
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  32. #2532
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I find it amusing that everybody seems to agree that silver will go up only nobody knows why. Industrial demand, short squeeze?

    In reality we see lots of investors who have missed out on the gold rallye who strongly believe silver will automatically catch up. As long as enough people believe that, it will eventually happen, and judging by recent crowd behaviour it will almost certainly happen.

    If that's good enough a reason for you to pile in, then go ahead and enjoy the ride. To the moon!
    That is it really in a nut shell.

  33. #2533
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Is silver used in industrial applications? If so maybe that's a reason it is spiking - investors betting on increased demand as the economy roars back
    It is - about 50% of total annual demand of 1bn ounces goes into industrial applications. There is broadly positive outlook on mid term electronics demand, and photovoltaic demand looks pretty steady near term.

    However that has bugger all to do with the current situation. As Raffe says... to the moon!

  34. #2534
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    If 50% go to industrial applications it begs the question who is buying the rest? Don't think the silver necklace for my daughter put much of a dent into available supplies.

    If the only source of excess demand is speculation through silver ETFs, then it doesn't take much imagination what will happen once that kind of buying turns into selling.

    Not like we haven't seen it before:

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  35. #2535
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    ^Yup, bang on Raffe.

    Industrial demand has been pretty flat in recent years and that is highly unlikely to change short term. Frankly, it’s more likely to diminish on the back of COVID-19 lockdowns

  36. #2536
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Could it be simply that people who have piled their social security cheques into stocks are now thinking the ride is over and are moving them to gold/silver?

    The last few stock market crashes have seen big rises in these “safe havens” so maybe it’s people starting to pile in. And as Raffe says, this global FOMO seems to have an enormous effect on all investments these days.

    I have another novice question....Can anyone explain why physical metal ETCs like SGLN and SSLN don’t seem to track the daily market moves that the commodity they track makes?

    For example, yesterday, the silver price was up 6% or so, but my SSLN holding was down. I thought ETCs and ETFs used live prices and tracked the exact movements in the market in real time?

  37. #2537
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Looking at it again now, it is showing the 6.2% rise.

    It seems to lag behind somewhat.

    https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-s...cal-silver-etc

  38. #2538
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    There are some technical issues with replicating commodity prices in ETF/ETC constructs, but precious metals should not suffer the aberrations which we have seen in the oil ETCs (compare my earlier articles on the subject). Reason is that physical storage of gold and silver is pretty straightforward unlike with oil.

    As to leveraged funds, I can only advice not to invest into them. They are systematic value destroyers and the risk is very unfavourably skewed against you. They will lose you money, that is guaranteed. Plenty of information about that as well in this thread.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  39. #2539
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I find it amusing that everybody seems to agree that silver will go up only nobody knows why. Industrial demand, short squeeze?

    In reality we see lots of investors who have missed out on the gold rallye who strongly believe silver will automatically catch up. As long as enough people believe that, it will eventually happen, and judging by recent crowd behaviour it will almost certainly happen.

    If that's good enough a reason for you to pile in, then go ahead and enjoy the ride. To the moon!

    I've traded in and out of Gold and Silver since around 2008.
    Silver has been increasingly used for industrial applcations in recent years, but given the poor medium term prospects for the economy and consumer demand, I don't see that as a valid argument for the current run up.
    Those who were arguing in around 2007/08 that the QE embarked upon after the last crash was accelerating the debasement of Fiat currency are even more vociferous now given the rolling of the printing presses following COVID hence the run up in Gold.
    I'm not going to get into that debate here, but there are a number who subscribe to that argument with a reasonably significant number of those insisting on taking delivery of physical including the wacko's across the pond preparing for the apocalypse who are stocking up on silver eagles, canned foods and automatic weapons.

    I'm quite happy holding ETF/ETC's, mining equities and some physical within Bullionvault and really can't be arsed with the hassle and security risk of taking delivery of Sovereigns & Siver Eagles, but there are those who only want the real thing. This is where I think to some extent Silver has an attraction.
    If you want to own some physical - it's in theory a lot easier to take delivery of and spend a few ounces of Silver at ca $21 per oz than Gold at $1,850.

    If you're tempted to dabble in Silver, a word of warning - it's notoriously volatile, much more so than Gold, so be prepared for a bumpy ride.
    I'd advise looking at Miners, they've had a good run up in recent weeks, so may be due a correction in the near term, but GDX and GDXJ in my opinion are a good method of playing the PM game.

  40. #2540
    Aren't people still buying silver tableware?

  41. #2541
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Aren't people still buying silver tableware?
    How could I forget?

    Off to order a silver ETC.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  42. #2542
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    Back in the days that I used to frequent share forums where everyone was trying to make the big money out of AIM stocks, I learned one very valuable thing . . . . . . That by the time I (by 'I' I mean the majority of people) found out about a share with huge potential, I'd missed the boat. Loads of people talking it up, you then buy in just when its turning and bang, you're down a lot of money. GKP and SXX were two that people became obsessed with.

    Bitcoin, Tesla etc. For every person that gets lucky/times it right, I reckon there's multiples of that who don't.

  43. #2543
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Aren't people still buying silver tableware?
    I've just ordered some along with some bone china and lead crystal

  44. #2544
    Well now that covid is old news ( already got a vaccine haven't we it's all fine ! ), how much is Brexit affecting sentiment? Ah the glory old days of only worrying about a Brexit deal

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  45. #2545
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Well now that covid is old news ( already got a vaccine haven't we it's all fine ! ), how much is Brexit affecting sentiment? Ah the glory old days of only worrying about a Brexit deal

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    All going swimmingly in terms of Brexit, I assume the sunlit uplands are now very near.

    Buy, buy, buy.

  46. #2546
    I'll be buying shares in a company that paints lines in carparks in Kent

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  47. #2547
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    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post

    I'm quite happy holding ETF/ETC's, mining equities and some physical within Bullionvault and really can't be arsed with the hassle and security risk of taking delivery of Sovereigns & Siver Eagles, but there are those who only want the real thing. This is where I think to some extent Silver has an attraction.
    If you want to own some physical - it's in theory a lot easier to take delivery of and spend a few ounces of Silver at ca $21 per oz than Gold at $1,850.
    One problem with that is VAT is charged on silver coins, not on gold - so if you are hoping to make a profit on reselling, the price needs to rise by at least 20% in order to break even (ignoring the premium of coins over spot price).

    I bought a solitary 1oz gold coin in Feb this year and it has appreciated significantly, but I'm almost never going to sell it so it's a moot point really.

  48. #2548
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Wow. Electrek always had their head stuck in Elon's back, but this article must win them the sucking-up awards of the decade.

    Warming up the crowds for the release of Tesla Q2 numbers after close today.


    https://electrek.co/2020/07/21/tesla...nization-plan/

  49. #2549
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Some utter cretins on the markets - AZN DOWN 3% despite basically being on the cusp of having a mandatory vaccine that people will need at least 2 doses of and a likely annual booster. Great opportunity for people to get in at a discount - surely in a few months the stock will be 25% minimum up.
    Less cretinous than people selling today.

  50. #2550
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I read somewhere that it is because Tesla is shorted so much that the stock rises as people shorting them are forced to consolidate their positions by buying the stock at the higher rate.

    Some utter cretins on the markets - AZN DOWN 3% despite basically being on the cusp of having a mandatory vaccine that people will need at least 2 doses of and a likely annual booster. Great opportunity for people to get in at a discount - surely in a few months the stock will be 25% minimum up.
    Sorry Ryan, I don't follow you.
    Unless I'm mistaken, AZN stated that they would be supplying COVID vaccine at cost (no profit) - full disclosure, I'm an AZN holder so hope you are right, but as I understand it, any future rise in their share price will be at least partly due to the IP gained in the development of the vaccine being transferable to development of new treatments for other conditions.

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