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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #201
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Why is this, are we perceived to be in greater sh#t than everyone else?
    If I were crude I could say that the currency Twats are playing their usual fu.....ing games,

    but the BBC try to explain it

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51921922

    it is never pleasant to see one's currency being speculated against, (sold), like this

  2. #202
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    That is what I was thinking... I don’t understand this ...
    Coronavirus + Brexit - simples.
    "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."

  3. #203
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    If I were crude I could say that the currency Twats are playing their usual fu.....ing games,

    but the BBC try to explain it

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51921922

    it is never pleasant to see one's currency being speculated against, (sold), like this
    Every country will need to borrow to prop up their economy.

  4. #204
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    If I were crude I could say that the currency Twats are playing their usual fu.....ing games,

    but the BBC try to explain it

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51921922

    it is never pleasant to see one's currency being speculated against, (sold), like this
    Sorry but that's nonsense. Capital is simply flowing to the safest haven. Just like investors sell stocks and keep money in cash. Would you also say that people are speculating against these stocks? No, they simply lost trust in the future development of that particular asset and are selling before it falls even further. There are many reasons to see trouble ahead for the UK, lower trade numbers due to Brexit, massive borrowing needs to protect the economy, massively higher borrowing costs for the government, lower tax proceeds going forward. Much safer to buy the Dollar instead, or the JPY. Why the Euro is holding up so well is anybody's guess, I expect some serious crumbling to start there very soon.

    And in the end, no way Sterling is singled out. The Norwegian Krona, from a country with the largest per-head monetary reserve in the world, dropped more than 15% against the Pound since the beginning of the year. Today it suffered a 10% drop during one point. Similar for the Australian Dollar.

    Here is a chart of the development of CAD, GBP, AUD and NOK for the past month (all against US Dollar). Absolutely horrifying.


  5. #205
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    We will get through this, a friend of mine works with a factory making electronics in China, he reports they are all back at work apart from workers at home for child care. They thinks schools will reopen soon but no official word yet.

    My nephew is in lockdown as he teaches English in China. He’s still in lockdown but says there is more movement in his area.

    China are a couple of months ahead of us.

    There will be significant economic problems but I don’t see this as the end of the world.
    Your right in that China are coming out of it, but being a controlling communist country it has been far easier for the government to apply its rules, us in the west are generally given advice to follow, some countries like Belgium are playing ball while others like France just stick 2 fingers up to Macron.

    Cost of life will probably be greater here in the west and the length of infection/recovery is bound to be longer due to freedom of movement.

    475 deaths in Italy over 24 hours is just shocking...

  6. #206
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    Quote Originally Posted by number2 View Post
    Coronavirus + Brexit - simples.
    chaos squared

  7. #207
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Sorry but that's nonsense. Capital is simply flowing to the safest haven. Just like investors sell stocks and keep money in cash. Would you also say that people are speculating against these stocks? No, they simply lost trust in the future development of that particular asset and are selling before it falls even further. There are many reasons to see trouble ahead for the UK, lower trade numbers due to Brexit, massive borrowing needs to protect the economy, massively higher borrowing costs for the government, lower tax proceeds going forward. Much safer to buy the Dollar instead, or the JPY. Why the Euro is holding up so well is anybody's guess, I expect some serious crumbling to start there very soon.

    And in the end, no way Sterling is singled out. The Norwegian Krona, from a country with the largest per-head monetary reserve in the world, dropped more than 15% against the Pound since the beginning of the year. Today it suffered a 10% drop during one point. Similar for the Australian Dollar.

    Here is a chart of the development of CAD, GBP, AUD and NOK for the past month (all against US Dollar). Absolutely horrifying.
    I fully agree with your Sterling analysis - lack of trust in the Pound. The Euro has shown some resilience in crisis in the past 5 years (i.e. - we survived the Greece bailout. And so the Euro just feels like a safer place to store cash compared to Sterling if you want to diversify from the Dollar.

    Personally, I think the Dollar is overvalued. They're a good few weeks behind the UK on the Virus curve. Plenty of time for panic to set in and draconian laws to come into play.

  8. #208
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Your right in that China are coming out of it, but being a controlling communist country it has been far easier for the government to apply its rules, us in the west are generally given advice to follow, some countries like Belgium are playing ball while others like France just stick 2 fingers up to Macron.

    Cost of life will probably be greater here in the west and the length of infection/recovery is bound to be longer due to freedom of movement.

    475 deaths in Italy over 24 hours is just shocking...
    Agreed, the west will suffer more.

    I’ve had conversations with friends who are intelligent professional people who still think social gathering is acceptable. When I point out the madness of this they don’t seem to get the gravity of the situation.

    I guess where I have some very vunerable relatives makes me more thoughtful on this.

  9. #209
    Is there any way to buy other currencies (or equivalent) with cash in SIPP or (share) ISA?

  10. #210
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Is there any way to buy other currencies (or equivalent) with cash in SIPP or (share) ISA?
    You could buy foreign currency money market or bond funds?

  11. #211
    More airlines announce the grounding or suspension of flights. Qantas will ground its international flight until at least the end of May.
    It's just a matter of time...

  12. #212
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    £ up against Euro today - 1.7% so far

    talking to a couple of dealers this morning, as I have quite a few Euros to shift, and one said that it looks as thought the £ is heading for parity.........but what do they know?

  13. #213
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    £ up against Euro today - 1.7% so far

    talking to a couple of dealers this morning, as I have quite a few Euros to shift, and one said that it looks as thought the £ is heading for parity.........but what do they know?
    What does anyone know?
    "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."

  14. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    £ up against Euro today - 1.7% so far

    talking to a couple of dealers this morning, as I have quite a few Euros to shift, and one said that it looks as thought the £ is heading for parity.........but what do they know?
    I have sold Euros and bought Dollars, expecting a sustained break below parity, possibly a return to the .85/.90 levels from 20 years ago.

  15. #215
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    Quote Originally Posted by number2 View Post
    What does anyone know?
    Think I'll buy a couple more straps from Uncle Seiko, at least that seems a safe investment - Chocolate Bar and Razor Wire

  16. #216
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    If someone could genuinely predict currency movements, they would be sitting in a nice office and making an absolute packet. The last thing they would be doing is wasting their time talking to a bunch of watch nerds who are worried about the potential softening of prices of Rolex.

  17. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I have sold Euros and bought Dollars, expecting a sustained break below parity, possibly a return to the .85/.90 levels from 20 years ago.
    I'm liking the sound of that.

  18. #218
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    IF (big IF) this is true and replicated globally then I reckon it might be time to think about an early summer plunge into the market

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...222v1.full.pdf

    Caveat again - big IF but based on the fact viruses want to replicate and that in the instance of host suppression the more benign/undetectable strains prosper then it does make sense

  19. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    If someone could genuinely predict currency movements, they would be sitting in a nice office and making an absolute packet. The last thing they would be doing is wasting their time talking to a bunch of watch nerds who are worried about the potential softening of prices of Rolex.
    25 years ago, I spent six years of my life trading currencies for a living. Then I moved on to trading and investing in other asset classes, was the global head of asset allocation for an international banking group, head of equities, CEO of asset management, chairman of several investment committees and director of a couple of dozens of investment funds.

    Are you in any way qualified to talk about this stuff or are you just spouting random nonsense?

  20. #220
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    25 years ago, I spent six years of my life trading currencies for a living. Then I moved on to trading and investing in other asset classes, was the global head of asset allocation for an international banking group, head of equities, CEO of asset management, chairman of several investment committees and director of a couple of dozens of investment funds.

    Are you in any way qualified to talk about this stuff or are you just spouting random nonsense?
    So you live in a mansion and drive a Porsche or similar ?

    Why do you waste your time talking to us lowly lot ?

    As I said earlier in the thread, I am holed up in a villa in Spain which was paid for out of the profits made from equities but there is no way on earth that I would claim that I was clever or smart, just an every day punter who took gambles and was more often lucky than unlucky.

  21. #221
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    This is a thread about investing. Do you have anything meaningful to contribute?

  22. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    £ up against Euro today - 1.7% so far

    talking to a couple of dealers this morning, as I have quite a few Euros to shift, and one said that it looks as thought the £ is heading for parity.........but what do they know?
    Good news, I have 65 euros left over from a holiday in Spain I need to change back at Asda 
    Last edited by Maris; 19th March 2020 at 16:37. Reason: Spain not Turkey!

  23. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by Maris View Post
    Good news, I have 65 euros left over from a holiday in Turkey I need to change back at Asda 
    I think that your 65 Euros are worth less than that were yesterday - £ now 2.75% better against the Euro than it was yesterday ....... but it could all change tomorrow
    Last edited by BillN; 19th March 2020 at 16:18.

  24. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Sorry but that's nonsense. Capital is simply flowing to the safest haven. Just like investors sell stocks and keep money in cash. Would you also say that people are speculating against these stocks? No, they simply lost trust in the future development of that particular asset and are selling before it falls even further. There are many reasons to see trouble ahead for the UK, lower trade numbers due to Brexit, massive borrowing needs to protect the economy, massively higher borrowing costs for the government, lower tax proceeds going forward. Much safer to buy the Dollar instead, or the JPY. Why the Euro is holding up so well is anybody's guess, I expect some serious crumbling to start there very soon.

    And in the end, no way Sterling is singled out. The Norwegian Krona, from a country with the largest per-head monetary reserve in the world, dropped more than 15% against the Pound since the beginning of the year. Today it suffered a 10% drop during one point. Similar for the Australian Dollar.

    Here is a chart of the development of CAD, GBP, AUD and NOK for the past month (all against US Dollar). Absolutely horrifying.

    That's fine, but tell me what to do with my Euros - I had them since October when we sold our house in France and moved back to the UK - parity would be nice - but I followed my gut feelings and kept them, but my gut feeling has now gone and I'm sticking a finger up in the air.
    I feel that the Euro is fundamentally weak, but it's such an important currency that it will be supported, but I'm sure the currency trading Twats will have a go at it as they move from one currency to the next as they play their game.

    Money moving to the Sterling "safe haven" today - £ now 3% up on yesterday Euro
    Last edited by BillN; 19th March 2020 at 16:36.

  25. #225
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    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Will this afternoons rate cut make the situation any better for equities or just lower the cost of government borrowing to pay for it?

  26. #226
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    If I were you, I would exchange at least half of my euros into pounds now. Plenty of risks around the Euro, wouldn't want to hold too large an amount if it weren't my home currency.

  27. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by joe narvey View Post
    Will this afternoons rate cut make the situation any better for equities or just lower the cost of government borrowing to pay for it?
    Seemed a pointless move to me as far as equities are concerned.

  28. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If I were you, I would exchange at least half of my euros into pounds now. Plenty of risks around the Euro, wouldn't want to hold too large an amount if it weren't my home currency.
    Thanks - after checking the rates with Currency Direct, I tried to do that this morning - could not get thru to HSBC, so sent my "Universal Banker" an email asking him to call me back - of course you know what did not happen - still waiting for his call

    Can Transferwise do large amounts at good rates?
    Last edited by BillN; 19th March 2020 at 17:29.

  29. #229
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    So you live in a mansion and drive a Porsche or similar ?
    Who cares, not all successful people follow the same spending patterns.

    I welcome the insights.

  30. #230
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Thanks - after checking the rates with Currency Direct, I tried to do that this morning - could not get thru to HSBC, so sent my "Universal Banker" an email asking him to call me back - of course you know what did not happen - still waiting for his call

    Can Transferwise do large amounts at good rates?
    Depends what you call large, but I use them for 10k transfers pretty regularly and they seem
    quite competitive

  31. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Thanks - after checking the rates with Currency Direct, I tried to do that this morning - could not get thru to HSBC, so sent my "Universal Banker" an email asking him to call me back - of course you know what did not happen - still waiting for his call

    Can Transferwise do large amounts at good rates?
    Yes, they do even large amounts. If it doesn't work, you can PM me and I can give you another alternative.
    Last edited by Raffe; 19th March 2020 at 19:06.

  32. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yes, they do even large amounts. If it doesn't work, you can PM me and I can give you another alternative.
    Thanks Raffe, that very kind of you

  33. #233
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If I were you, I would exchange at least half of my euros into pounds now. Plenty of risks around the Euro, wouldn't want to hold too large an amount if it weren't my home currency.
    Wise advice when asked about shorter term positions with a single currency pair - 50/50.

  34. #234
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    Markets hanging in there today.

    I’ve seen some pretty grim GDP forecasts.

    If I look at my own spending it’s crashed, I’m not going out, spending money on general stuff, buying fuel, holidays and so on. Multiply these reductions in personal spending by billions and you have a huge impact on the economy.

    What we need to see is some better data from China but it seems they have stopped sharing.

    I’m expecting commercial and residential tenants to default, not sure how to deal with that.

    Edit, just looked Hilton Hotels are down 79%
    Last edited by Montello; 19th March 2020 at 20:41.

  35. #235
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Markets hanging in there today.

    I’ve seen some pretty grim GDP forecasts.

    If I look at my own spending it’s crashed, I’m not going out, spending money on general stuff, buying fuel, holidays and so on. Multiply these reductions in personal spending by billions and you have a huge impact on the economy.

    What we need to see is some better data from China but it seems they have stopped sharing.

    I’m expecting commercial and residential tenants to default, not sure how to deal with that.

    Edit, just looked Hilton Hotels are down 79%
    Your right, I'm getting more emails from past businesses I have dealt with touting for trade and I cant help but feel sorry for them.

    Also had a double glazing company call this evening as I spoke with them about 18 months ago, they gave me the usual "we're in your area and have special deals, once these deals are finished it will be much more expensive"

    I thought, just be honest mate, your struggling and touting for work and still using the same old sales tricks, I would much rather an upfront approach of, we're in bad times and have cut our prices to keep the business and employees going, any windows you might be thinking of changing please let us know as we would really appreciate your consideration.

  36. #236
    What does the BOE bond purchase mean for gilt indexes?

  37. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Your right, I'm getting more emails from past businesses I have dealt with touting for trade and I cant help but feel sorry for them.

    Also had a double glazing company call this evening as I spoke with them about 18 months ago, they gave me the usual "we're in your area and have special deals, once these deals are finished it will be much more expensive"

    I thought, just be honest mate, your struggling and touting for work and still using the same old sales tricks, I would much rather an upfront approach of, we're in bad times and have cut our prices to keep the business and employees going, any windows you might be thinking of changing please let us know as we would really appreciate your consideration.
    A tough recession seems inevitable. There will be failed businesses and significant job losses which take time to rebuild.

    All these government packages just seem the be loading up businesses with more debt with no idea of how long this will last. Looking towards Italy we have not even started here yet.

  38. #238
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    A tough recession seems inevitable. There will be failed businesses and significant job losses which take time to rebuild.

    All these government packages just seem the be loading up businesses with more debt with no idea of how long this will last. Looking towards Italy we have not even started here yet.
    Well, true lockdown would eradicate things within 2 weeks, at least within each country - so a concerted and joined up effort could and would sort this relatively quickly.
    It's just a matter of time...

  39. #239
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    Well, true lockdown would eradicate things within 2 weeks, at least within each country - so a concerted and joined up effort could and would sort this relatively quickly.
    Note sure of your sources, China has been locked down longer than that and still has issues.

    Regarding the OPs assertion it’s not what to buy when it bounces back but when can we be confident the virus period is over ...

  40. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Note sure of your sources, China has been locked down longer than that and still has issues.

    Regarding the OPs assertion it’s not what to buy when it bounces back but when can we be confident the virus period is over ...
    I believe the correct question is: when is the best time to buy what market segment?

    I think different companies and different sectors will bounce back quicker, or lag behind longer. An index tracker will smooth that out for you, but will also "dull" the benefits of the upswing. Picking the right stocks, the right industries, AND the right timing will be a real challenge in this market we're now pioneering. It's not for the faint of heart.

  41. #241
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I believe the correct question is: when is the best time to buy what market segment?

    I think different companies and different sectors will bounce back quicker, or lag behind longer. An index tracker will smooth that out for you, but will also "dull" the benefits of the upswing. Picking the right stocks, the right industries, AND the right timing will be a real challenge in this market we're now pioneering. It's not for the faint of heart.
    Indeed, can believe the hit Hilton have taken, you’d need some nuts to dive into that.

  42. #242
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I believe the correct question is: when is the best time to buy what market segment?

    I think different companies and different sectors will bounce back quicker, or lag behind longer. An index tracker will smooth that out for you, but will also "dull" the benefits of the upswing. Picking the right stocks, the right industries, AND the right timing will be a real challenge in this market we're now pioneering. It's not for the faint of heart.
    Very true, apart from doing shop runs/maintenance jobs for people I'm using time at home to get a better education on stocks/ETF's and find it very interesting, I have had a little play with some cheap shares and done okay.

    As time goes by I will narrow down certain sectors and watch shares within those sectors, getting this right could determine a big part of your and your families future, its not lost on me that many investor websites are saying this could be the best possible time in history to buy into stocks, yes there is a tragic element to all this but as I said before that is on other threads and this thread is about the economic side to the epidemic.

  43. #243
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I believe the correct question is: when is the best time to buy what market segment?

    I think different companies and different sectors will bounce back quicker, or lag behind longer. An index tracker will smooth that out for you, but will also "dull" the benefits of the upswing. Picking the right stocks, the right industries, AND the right timing will be a real challenge in this market we're now pioneering. It's not for the faint of heart.
    I am not even thinking of buying, if I still had equities I would be looking to sell.

    In my eyes, this down market has a long way to go.

  44. #244
    Can’t agree more, theres no ‘blood on the streets’ yet

  45. #245
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I am not even thinking of buying, if I still had equities I would be looking to sell.

    In my eyes, this down market has a long way to go.
    No equities? Recent unload?

    Some alarming comparisons.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a9412221.html


  46. #246
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    No equities? Recent unload?
    I sold all of my liquid risky assets between October and February, that includes stocks, currencies, funds and most of my valuable watches. I had some short positions, which I closed this week, except for a very strategic short Euro / long US Dollar position (which I am looking to increase).

  47. #247
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Note sure of your sources, China has been locked down longer than that and still has issues.

    Regarding the OPs assertion it’s not what to buy when it bounces back but when can we be confident the virus period is over ...
    ? Then it hasn’t been under a “true lockdown” has it?! Without the ability for transmission, it would be eradicated in each locked down setting within 14 days. These facts are known, and easily researchable.

    Also, China is stating no newly transmitted cases within the country.

    It can only last a max of 3 days on surfaces for example.

    Locking down a community, will just allow transmission within each community. Locking down each home is likely to be a next/later step.
    It's just a matter of time...

  48. #248
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I sold all of my liquid risky assets between October and February, that includes stocks, currencies, funds and most of my valuable watches. I had some short positions, which I closed this week, except for a very strategic short Euro / long US Dollar position (which I am looking to increase).
    Very good timing.
    It's just a matter of time...

  49. #249
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I sold all of my liquid risky assets between October and February, that includes stocks, currencies, funds and most of my valuable watches. I had some short positions, which I closed this week, except for a very strategic short Euro / long US Dollar position (which I am looking to increase).
    Nice work, so you clearly were getting out prior to the virus effect, what prompted you?

    Now how do you protect your cash pile from QE fuelled inflation?

  50. #250
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Nice work, so you clearly were getting out prior to the virus effect, what prompted you?

    Now how do you protect your cash pile from QE fuelled inflation?
    My action was mostly driven by a perceived disconnect between asset prices and reality. If the main driver of asset prices is liquidity, the construct becomes very risky. I witnessed numerous occasions, where the stock market reacted to rather poor economic news with a rallye, simply because the Fed was less likely to raise interest rates. Absolute bonkers.

    Since this is a watch forum: I expect watch prices to tank sharply. I know everybody will disagree, so let's just wait and see.

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