Reply With QuoteNot today. Founder owns sweatshops!Originally Posted by demonloop
Speculation that was proven incorrect a few days back, if I remember correctly.
Not today. Founder owns sweatshops!
To the moon mars.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...naires-ranking
“He’s trying to find out does Coke or Pepsi deserve more capital? I mean that’s kind of a boring job, if you ask me,” Musk said.
THE BELOW IS IMHO
More data coming through that the US Ecomomic recovery is faltering. I'm busy so no links but check Bloomberg for starters. I'm sure most sensible people have already either exited their tracker positions or have created a more robust portfolio balance but if you haven't the growing swell of data that the supposed V shaped recovery is a fallacy will come to the fore over the next week or so. This is combined with death rates creeping up in the Southern US states (and these death rates will go stratospheric over the weeks to come as despite some thoughts that huge numbers of infections weren't going to lead to huge death spikes it turns out they will) will have a huge impact on investor sentiment.
Possibly Gold and Silver will continue to do ok but I really am not qualified to say that. If you are in the market based only on 'going along for the ride' and your position/portfolio isn't based on expertise and experience like some of the guys here then I'd be asking yourself how easily you would sleep if it went t*ts up and if so would it be better to just exit now? No guarantee that's the right decision but it is one that may provide more peace of mind.
I’ve been saying for several weeks, that CV19 is only getting started in the US. The central band and south is going to be hit hard. I concur with most of what you’ve said on that Ryan.
I’ve been playing with small amounts of shares this past 2/3 weeks. Total less than 10k invested, so should it go tits up not the end of the world. SIPP and ISA remain fully in cash and will be staying that way.
Ryan
I’m still c80% cash, but starting to add based in valuations and long term view. The tech world has to be running out of steam, I have an AI fund that wasn’t bought when the markets cratered that is 45% up in around 6 months, that’s unsustainable
FTSE closed at 6095 on Friday, you could easily see a pull back to 5500 once the inevitable redundancies and future quarters GDP start to report
The U.S. could see 20%+ in pull backs in these markets as they have pretty much got back to all time highs...they need winter weather to help stop the spread, but they are too entitled / stupid to see the consequences of their inability to do what they’re advised
My plan is to sell out the Tech AI fund and buy on the dips into solid corporates
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Until the deaths graph starts to follow the new cases graph people will continue to say that it’s just greater levels of testing causing the uptick in the USA.
Fact is that the super-high stock price indeed gives the company many new possibilities. If they are just a little smart, they will sell a truckload of equity and raise billions of cash and pursue some sort of acquisition with the money. They are obviously very incompetent at manfucaturing, they could buy GM, Ford or any other carmaker for pocket-money and get instant access to their manufacturing know-how and facilities. The problem is that this would expose them to the problem that it would become rather apparent that there is no real demand for their cars as shown by their rapidly declining volumes in the US and Europe.
They have now even cut the price for the model Y in the US before it is available in any other country. No other company which blames their stagnant sales numbers on excess demand versus constrained manufacturing capacity would constantly cut prices, correct? Their quality is shite and the semi-autonomous driving ends in acidents, even years after the promised delivery of full autonomy (which customers paid USD 8,000 for per car). The autopilot is flawed by design as it utilises optical cameras rather than LIDAR (as all other car makers are using). An 'autonomous' Tesla still panic-breaks when there is a sharp shadow on the highway because of a bridge. Cutting edge, right? Let's not even talk about their fraudulent business and accounting practices.
Hmm worth a cautious approach imho could rebound but its a punt..
https://www.cityam.com/boohoo-shares...r-dumps-stock/
Big uptick in Silver (SSLN) and Gold (SGLN) today.
I’m up nearly 9% on silver and 7% on gold since selling all my equities and buying them last month.
I only put 1/3rd of my cash in them. Starting to wish I’d put it all in!
The other 2/3rds is still in cash earning zero. Should probably put that into the HL active savings account that currently has an instant access product paying 0.75%. Better than 0.
Silver's looking good isn't it! Amazing that silver is still only $19 - a ton off from its highs, loads of potential and running room. Gold is coming very close to its high but looks good from a long term perspective. I think we could see a fast run up in silver hopefully to the $30/40s level - maybe this time it might take out $50. The gold/silver ratio is a good one to watch, it's been insanely high (120ish) if it drops to 40/30s i'd be selling my silver.
What's the reasoning for expecting a lower gold/silver ratio?
I suppose past history tends to show it. Silver tends to lag the rising gold prices then all of a sudden boom. Look at late 1970's and 2011 etc
Play with Canadian silver miners like IPT....
one of the mega risers is Eurasia Mining Plc gone from 0.3/0.4p( few years back) to a high of 21.5p today
My current standpoint (and I know this is all new to me) is that any resource mining is of interest. Any of the metals relating to solar/batteries etc will be in demand over the next few years and any company looking/finding any new areas to mine are going to be worth looking at. The tech shares are also of interest as the amount of people wfh and how rapidly things change make them good for a short term change. Retail is interesting as the established players don't seem to react quick enough on the whole and new pop up-cheep as chips type places seem to be subject to moral judgements by the vocal social networkers that affects things quite quickly.
Good luck waiting for that.
Race to $2000 first? Gold $1805 an ounce, Tesla $1754 a share.
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Tesla should be there by Thursday the way it's going! Absolute madness!
Reminds me of the run-up earlier during the year. Every day 10+% and no reason for it other that tons of people are buying. Craziest thing I have ever seen in my 30+ years in financial markets.
Yes Tesla is totally nuts. Getting "experts saying its going much higher" NUTTS
Can only agree I have topped up on Netflix Thursday last week and again at open today....
Nice 3-4% lift so far then i look at Tesla and think hmmmm should I have done that instead but it makes me shudder what could happen ....imagine when everyone collectively decides to profit take on the same day😬
Maybe not quite as broad and thorough as some of Raffe's recent analyses, but I quite liked the way they carried off the 'unavoidable' pun.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...bubble-forever
Tesla - reminds me of a "subliminal" chain letter-ish
even the Hedge Funds are now bailing out, many having caught a cold, or got their fingers burnt?
but the virus still seems to be spreading amongst retail investors
Last edited by BillN; 13th July 2020 at 17:48.
That’ll be the day to bang your cash in as it’s almost certainly rally back up 30% of the drop in the following couple of days.
More crazy than the 2000 dot com bubble? ( I was only a child then)
Tesla must have a crazy P/E, in the hundreds.
The 2000 bubble was a bit similar, stocks like Broadvision or CMGI were comparable with Tesla today. The crazy thing is that until a couple of months ago, I would have bet this could never happen again.
How wrong I was.
Tesla has never made a profit, so it has no P/E at all. Analysts are usually estimating some wild earnings figure a few years out in order to justify their target prices. It's a shit show, nobody wants to know what Tesla is really worth, it's much more about pleasing vested interests - back to 2000 in this respect as well.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Historically the ratio Tends to revert to ~45:1 reflect the relative abundance of each metal in the earths crust. There are long periods where this ratio hasn’t held true, however.
Just the 18 points down today lol. My IAG punt also down 17.5% since I bought in. Still, I'll hang on to them
Re. Tesla
Taking the overvaluation (and general ‘this doesn’t make sense’) chat out of it.
In the sense what this thread is about, what are people’s thoughts on what is likely to happen with the share price drive in the short-term?
Imminent quarter results apparently due to be announced, does it seem like sales figures/creative accounting will either boost share price more or that there will be further boost with the current bullish nature and anticipation of what these numbers could be?
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I am long some 900 Tesla puts (these were at the money only a good week ago!!) and the option pricing on these (now out of the money) is so crazy, even at almost USD 1,800 they were trading higher than a good week ago when Tesla was trading around USD 1,300.
Using the current implied volatility, I will be in the money on those when Tesla stock hits around USD 1,200 - I have bought them between USD 960 and USD 1,005!!
Bonkers doesn't begin to describe it.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Seems like the commodity is the stock and not the cars. What market is Tesla after? It isn't the £10k 2nd hand Renault or Vauxhall that is probably the 'average' car in the UK and when those cars were new they were £25k not the £50k tesla entry level. I'm happy for anyone who has done well out of it but I view Tesla in a similar way to how I viewed Ethereum a few years back - made total sense in theory as 'the future' but then reality bit and the whole house of cards went tumbling and a lot of people got caught. You have to imagine loads of youngsters taking out loans and credit card advances to get tesla stock which is what happened in the crypto markets
Anyone's guess.
Movements are totally disconnected from any fundamentals, only driven by sentiment. Maybe we have the big panic tomorrow, maybe another round of buying. Who knows?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
I went in on airlines, Tui and IAG just after you in anticipation of the ‘air bridge’ announcement. My plan was only very short term to get a lift and then dump, even with few hundred each. I pretty much did that across the board. From memory I think one of my holdings with IAG was left too long and it dipped again so I just pulled on rather than ride it out. The money could work better elsewhere.
Sure it’ll come back longer-term but I didn’t want to leave any in it for that timescale.
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Don’t get me wrong mate. I’m literally viewing it as a scenario that may yield some more profit. Not as a long term ‘great fundamentals’ investment. The candle that burns brightest burns the quickest n all.
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Hope you do well on them.
I’ve made maybe 3 grand or more out of jumps in them but I get too nervous with them. When it’s easy to make a a nice chunk in a day...it’s also easy to lose it in a day. I’d rather square ‘missing out’ with myself than ‘fuck I’ve just lost a few grand in a day’
My quick learnings on this (and to keep my emotions out of it) are to not look back or think ‘what if’...but I did kick my own balls a bit today when I thought if I hadn’t sold my short term grab on them I would’ve made about £20k as of today. But let’s be honest, Tesla is literally a casino atm.
I’ve put the largest chunk of mine into an investment trust that has been doing well for me during this last few months and I’m doing that on the basis they’re more spread into good stocks and actually know what they’re doing in comparison to me (some that are doing well atm and general good areas to be in). I’d rather have decent, lower, returns and feel that it’s more robust. Or at least if things start to go downhill it’ll have better brakes than Tesla does (pun intended)
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Tesla go from 1800 to 1500 today.
Multiple stocks with blowout top and subsequent crash today. Hoping it's the beginning of the end, but who knows?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
If Tesla are open to putting out data to suit their agenda, and they do so with this next set of quarterly results with the aim of getting included in the S&P, surely then the price will continue upwards?
Lots of bad news around today, expecting a bumpy ride
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Honeymoon period finally over?
Depends on China
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Dow Futures and Tesla both higher than yesterday's close.
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Recommended read. It's free, you only have to register.
Reading the usual on-line articles, if Tesla stock is falling, once it gets to the level where there is no prospect of it being added to the S & P 500, any fall will be (even more) significant, just saying
There have been lot's of significant reasons why not to buy Tesla stock, but still the stock has a love/hate relationship with Investors
down to US$ 1500 yesterday ....... what will today bring ........ more red?
I've never had any confidence in the company, basically because of Tesla cars - if electric cars take off, the major car companies will certainly get in on the game, and will Tesla be better than the competition?, Tesla will be just another car company at best, and if electric cars don't take off well maybe the company will never make a profit and it's share price will fall back to the 2011 level of US$ 25 ......I know that may be an exaggeration......... but crazy things do happen
I've never been "brave" enough to buy Tesla shares ........ but good luck to those who are now trading them
Last edited by BillN; 14th July 2020 at 09:39.
This one is for the ages.
A new USD 2,322 price target, derived from estimating a operative 25% margin at then end of a 20-year forecasting period. Pure madness, they have to make 20 year optimistic assumptions to justify the current levels. No margin for uncertainty, and the best is the reference to an 'astute retail investor', who has calculated that 50% growth per year means 4 M deliveries by 2025, so Tesla 'must have a capacity plan that supports this level'. Anyone thought about checking if the demand really exist? Tesla has been suffereing from falling demand for the past two years in the US and Europe, their only sales growth is in margin-free Asia - despite multiple new models and repeated price cuts. The company makes it up as they go and analysts are going through 20 year modelling to justify the price action on the exchanges.
Absolute madness, bordering on criminal.
To be fair Raffe that price target is an outlier, the rest are far more bearish (from the beginning of the month):
Firm Tgt Px RBC Capital Markets 765 Exane BNP Paribas 1400 Morgan Stanley 740 Roth Capital Partners 750 Evercore ISI 625 Piper Sandler & Co 2322 Wedbush 1250 Cowen 300 Goldman Sachs 1300 Daiwa Securities 1500 Deutsche Bank 1000 J.P. Morgan 295 JMP Securities 1500 Morningstar, Inc 731 Barclays 300 Nord/LB 500 Baird 700 Bernstein 500 Canaccord Genuity 650 DZ Bank AG 480
This one is for the ages.
A new USD 2,322 price target, derived from estimating a operative 25% margin at then end of a 20-year forecasting period. Pure madness, they have to make 20 year optimistic assumptions to justify the current levels. No margin for uncertainty, and the best is the reference to an 'astute retail investor', who has calculated that 50% growth per year means 4 M deliveries by 2025, so Tesla 'must have a capacity plan that supports this level'. Anyone thought about checking if the demand really exist? Tesla has been suffereing from falling demand for the past two years in the US and Europe, their only sales growth is in margin-free Asia - despite multiple new models and repeated price cuts. The company makes it up as they go and analysts are going through 20 year modelling to justify the price action on the exchanges.
Absolute madness, bordering on criminal.
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