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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #151
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    If only for the crystal ball, main thing is your not stressing as your pension deflates, its locked off now..

    Another positive is look for where the best returns will come from once the markets start to stabilise, you may have cashed out but you can now cash in at very low levels..
    Yep, I will re enter the market but I just need to catch my breath. First time in 25 years without an interest in the markets (apart from the pension).

    I have a horrible feeling we will see some messy business over the next months.

  2. #152
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiny73 View Post
    The price of paper gold is dropping. Take a look at the price and availability of physical gold.
    Nope, it's the price of physical which is dropping (actually not today, but over the past week).

    This is the chart of the daily Zurich physical gold price:


    Last edited by Raffe; 17th March 2020 at 17:57.

  3. #153
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    It’s those sorts of indicators that pushed me over the edge.

    I’m certain we will see some extreme monetary policy put in place to fix this which I expect will see more money printed and pressure on the banks to prop up good businesses with cash flow issues.

    Now I’m in cash I’m worried about inflation.

    Governments and Central banks will have a lot to do to fix this and with interest rates as they are I’m wondering what they have left up their sleeves, will be see helicopter money?
    Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?
    I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.

  5. #155
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    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.
    That would seem likely but we have had QE for years and inflation has remarkably been low but official figures lag reality.

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why would you worry about inflation when we are moving into a global recession?
    Because inflation is the enemy of cash
    Last edited by Montello; 17th March 2020 at 18:32.

  6. #156
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    That would seem likely but we have had QE for years and inflation has remarkably been low but official figures lag reality.
    You referring to the Rolex inflation?

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You referring to the Rolex inflation?
    Oh no ... bubble could be coming to an end.

  8. #158
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    Where do you put cash sitting in a SIPP? Nowhere I’m guessing ?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by T1ckT0ck View Post
    Where do you put cash sitting in a SIPP? Nowhere I’m guessing ?


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Couldn’t say, my cash is sitting in an ISA wrapper.

  10. #160
    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    I think inflation after the recession is quite likely given the amount of money printing thats going to happen over the next 12-18 months.
    In isolation maybe, but when numerous economies are also indulging in QE, then it's a slightly different scenario.
    It's just a matter of time...

  11. #161
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    I almost bottled it today as well. It’s been painful watching the value of investments and SIPP plummet in the last two weeks.

    In the end, I figured that to a large extent, the markets tend to price in the future feeling and sentiment well ahead, so while I tend to agree that things might get worse still, I fear that if I sold out now, I would very possibly miss the buy back timing and end up having to pay more to buy back in in the coming months. That would be even more painful.

    I personally felt that it’s safer to just let it be and ride it out. In 15 years, the graph will just show another blip in 2020, much like the one that there was in 2008.

    ETA - obviously this tac very much depends on your age and time to retirement.
    Last edited by mr noble; 17th March 2020 at 20:22.

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I almost bottled it today as well. It’s been painful watching the value of investments and SIPP plummet in the last two weeks.

    In the end, I figured that to a large extent, the markets tend to price in the future feeling and sentiment well ahead, so while I tend to agree that things might get worse still, I fear that if I sold out now, I would very possibly miss the buy back timing and end up having to pay more to buy back in in the coming months. That would be even more painful.

    I personally felt that it’s safer to just let it be and ride it out. In 15 years, the graph will just show another blip in 2020, much like the one that there was in 2008.

    ETA - obviously this tac very much depends on your age and time to retirement.
    Everyone has to make their own call and that all depends on age and circumstances.

    I’m hoping to ease into retirement and bailing kept those plans pretty much on track. Deeper losses would have messed things up. I plan to re enter the market in due course and for sure I will probably miss some gains but I can manage that more than the prospect of deeper losses.

    Will be interesting to see how the market reacts to today’s financial measures.

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Nope, it's the price of physical which is dropping (actually not today, but over the past week).

    This is the chart of the daily Zurich physical gold price:


    Fair enough but have you seen the £80+ per oz premium over spot on the likes of coininvest? That premium was only around £15 when I was buying at £800 or so per oz.

    Availability is also pretty scarce on the smaller bars.

  14. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiny73 View Post
    Fair enough but have you seen the £80+ per oz premium over spot on the likes of coininvest? That premium was only around £15 when I was buying at £800 or so per oz.

    Availability is also pretty scarce on the smaller bars.
    Ae you saying an ounce of coins costs £80 more than an ounce of gold bar?

    That would be expected, as you cannot buy one ounce of gold bar but only a kilo - smaller quantities always carry a premium. Also, the coins don't mint themselves, and the dealer network also needs to be financed. Obviously, there is also an element of demand and supply in that premium, but not sure it reacts much to external events. Is there a chart where you can track the premium? A quick google returns this, no development over time but at least an explanation of the various premiums for different coins.

  15. #165
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I’d imagine if this really turns into the apocalypse, gold would be totally valueless. Toilet rolls and baked beans would be the currency of the world.

  16. #166
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I’d imagine if this really turns into the apocalypse, gold would be totally valueless. Toilet rolls and baked beans would be the currency of the world.
    nah, with guns an ammo you can take all the bog roll and beans you want.

  17. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    nah, with guns an ammo you can take all the bog roll and beans you want.
    nah, with a real apocalypse, even guns and ammo won't help you!

  18. #168
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Ae you saying an ounce of coins costs £80 more than an ounce of gold bar?

    That would be expected, as you cannot buy one ounce of gold bar but only a kilo - smaller quantities always carry a premium. Also, the coins don't mint themselves, and the dealer network also needs to be financed. Obviously, there is also an element of demand and supply in that premium, but not sure it reacts much to external events. Is there a chart where you can track the premium? A quick google returns this, no development over time but at least an explanation of the various premiums for different coins.
    Sorry I wasn’t clear. The premium over the spot price (per oz.) when I was buying physical a few years ago was only around £15 or so ( I’m buying ounce bars rather than kilos, I’m not skyman you know ). I had a look on coininvest this week to see about topping up and the premium is around £80 per oz. over spot (spot was around £1250, to buy physical was between £1330-1350 depending on the product and large swathes were not available). This is on bars, there was was a premium on coins but if I’m honest I wasn’t really looking for coins so didn’t notice the figures.

  19. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by tiny73 View Post
    Sorry I wasn’t clear. The premium over the spot price (per oz.) when I was buying physical a few years ago was only around £15 or so ( I’m buying ounce bars rather than kilos, I’m not skyman you know ). I had a look on coininvest this week to see about topping up and the premium is around £80 per oz. over spot (spot was around £1250, to buy physical was between £1330-1350 depending on the product and large swathes were not available). This is on bars, there was was a premium on coins but if I’m honest I wasn’t really looking for coins so didn’t notice the figures.
    Again, the spread is to be expected. I suppose the actual day-to-day fluctuation will be a product of dealer markup (which is whatever they will get away with charging), supply (how many places can you still buy these?) and demand (how many are asking for these?). So no big surprise that the spread is widening when people stumble over each other to buy bogrolls and canned beans. But still, the price is lower today than it was a week ago, which perhaps says something about the fact that institutional investors aren't buying the crisis-hedging qualities of gold but simply are selling because they see lower demand for jewellery going forward.

  20. #170
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    (...) I just placed a modest investment in the stocks of six large U.S. airline companies. In the past 30 days, these six airlines have lost between 40% and 60% of their market value to the coronavirus. (...)
    First day didn't go so well:

    United -14% today, Delta -11%, Jetblue -10%, American -2%. Shining star is - as always - Southwest at +2%.

  21. #171
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    US markets have lost most of yesterday's gains again after Mnuchin warned of 20% unemployment rate, index futures are halted limit down and the DJ ETF is trading 4.5% lower.

  22. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    As the song goes, "Call me irresponsible..." In the wake of the largest one-day point loss in the history of the Dow, I just placed a modest investment in the stocks of six large U.S. airline companies. In the past 30 days, these six airlines have lost between 40% and 60% of their market value to the coronavirus. Although I read some discussion earlier in the day about possible airline 'bankruptcies,' I quickly gained some confidence when I heard that Trump was reacting very favorably to the airline industry's proposal for a $50 billion aid package.

    I was extremely lucky to dump all my stock holdings at the start of the crisis, so now I figure I can dabble a bit on the "wild side" with an amount that wouldn't hurt too bad if it all went down the toilet. Fingers crossed.
    Airlines??? I salute your magnificent testicles!! Global travel/holidays/business visits are fecked.

  23. #173
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    Quote Originally Posted by 33JS View Post
    Airlines??? I salute your magnificent testicles!! Global travel/holidays/business visits are fecked.
    PC has to use a wheel barrow to move them around.

  24. #174
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    There was some discussion earlier about investing in equities akin to gambling but bugger me investing in airlines right now is nothing more than a pure punt. Those massive wheelbarrow balls will be tiny little peanut balls soon.

  25. #175

  26. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    No, I don't see why I would.


    Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is projected to break below 20,000 at the opening today. US Airlines being clobbered.

  27. #177
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    Any love for Royal Dutch Shell at the current price?

  28. #178
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    Deutsche Bank just lowered their GDP forecasts for Q2/2020. You better sit down before you continue reading this.
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    Japan -3.9%. EuroArea -23.6%, Germany -28.4%, US -12.9%. Mind you, this is quarter-on-quarter, so not a full year projection. They say China's GDP has contracted by 31.7% in Q1 and will recover by 34% in Q2 (due to componding, this is -8.5% for H1/2020). Absolutely terrifying.

  29. #179
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    Holy smokes...it's hammer time...
    Last edited by Passenger; 18th March 2020 at 13:54.

  30. #180
    Crazy times indeed. Only a swift conclusion to current measures would have a positive effect, otherwise it looks like we are in for quite a long bumpy ride. Hold onto your hats!
    It's just a matter of time...

  31. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is projected to break below 20,000 at the opening today. US Airlines being clobbered.
    Just watched it drop below 20,000 its probabley going to flirt with 19.000 all day and send more panic though the markets..

  32. #182
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Deutsche Bank just lowered their GDP forecasts for Q2/2020. You better sit down before you continue reading this.
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    Japan -3.9%. EuroArea -23.6%, Germany -28.4%, US -12.9%. Mind you, this is quarter-on-quarter, so not a full year projection. They say China's GDP has contracted by 31.7% in Q1 and will recover by 34% in Q2 (due to componding, this is -8.5% for H1/2020). Absolutely terrifying.

    😳 a long way to go for the markets.

  33. #183
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    Peter Loy's scarce/collectable s/h Leica lenses seem to be selling as soon as they're listed … collectable (especially usable collectable) Leica items hold their value … demand usually steady/good

    http://www.peterloy.com/stock-list.php
    "I know not how to abstain from reading" … Samuel Pepys

  34. #184
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    PC has to use a wheel barrow to move them around.
    No, no! I mentioned that my bet was a very modest one. If it all goes south, que sera sera.

  35. #185
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Deutsche Bank just lowered their GDP forecasts for Q2/2020. You better sit down before you continue reading this.
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    Japan -3.9%. EuroArea -23.6%, Germany -28.4%, US -12.9%. Mind you, this is quarter-on-quarter, so not a full year projection. They say China's GDP has contracted by 31.7% in Q1 and will recover by 34% in Q2 (due to componding, this is -8.5% for H1/2020). Absolutely terrifying.
    Although Goldman Sachs have a 2020 view (whole year) posted yesterday that is more optimistic on the FY prospects

  36. #186
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Any love for Royal Dutch Shell at the current price?
    https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commen...yield-ii510928

    I will add to my Shell at some point but I'm nervous about the Company's business health.

  37. #187
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    No, no! I mentioned that my bet was a very modest one. If it all goes south, que sera sera.
    Lucky you. Airlines down 30% on average today. Must be down by almost 50% since you bought two and a half days ago?

  38. #188
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Lucky you. Airlines down 30% on average today. Must be down by almost 50% since you bought two and a half days ago?
    Double down PC?

  39. #189
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Double down PC?
    When in trouble, double.

  40. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commen...yield-ii510928

    I will add to my Shell at some point but I'm nervous about the Company's business health.
    If Shell go we may as well pack up and go home

    They have stopped, (maybe just for now), their share buy back scheme

    What is happening is an attack on our basic democracies by this invisible enemy, economies are being destroyed, the world has gone to war for far far less, if you see what I mean!!

  41. #191
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    If Shell go we may as well pack up and go home

    They have stopped, (maybe just for now), their share buy back scheme

    What is happening is an attack on our basic democracies by this invisible enemy, economies are being destroyed, the world has gone to war for far far less, if you see what I mean!!
    We will get through this, a friend of mine works with a factory making electronics in China, he reports they are all back at work apart from workers at home for child care. They thinks schools will reopen soon but no official word yet.

    My nephew is in lockdown as he teaches English in China. He’s still in lockdown but says there is more movement in his area.

    China are a couple of months ahead of us.

    There will be significant economic problems but I don’t see this as the end of the world.

  42. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    We will get through this, a friend of mine works with a factory making electronics in China, he reports they are all back at work apart from workers at home for child care. They thinks schools will reopen soon but no official word yet.

    My nephew is in lockdown as he teaches English in China. He’s still in lockdown but says there is more movement in his area.

    China are a couple of months ahead of us.

    There will be significant economic problems but I don’t see this as the end of the world.
    Of course it's not the end of the world and we have a lot to be grateful for

    But I am 73 and although I accept that I will be in "lockdown" for the next 6 months for my own good, it will be much longer than that before a vaccine has been developed and is available to the general population.............without this the "at risk" groups of people all around the world could be basically house bound for more than a year as this virus could be like the flu virus, but more deadly to the "at risk" groups: so the risk of infection could be with us for a matter of years not months.

    We are already on one bottle of wine a night, but we have just ordered "a quantity" in case they run out - not French, but S African

  43. #193
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    I've thought for a long time that my trigger point to dive back into the market (if the bottom fell out) was the Dow at 19900, but now I don't think so.

  44. #194
    It could still be early days.
    It's just a matter of time...

  45. #195
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    Video conferencing, holographic / VR conferencing,.
    "Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time it's enemy action."

  46. #196
    Dow 18k is happening imo. 16k not impossible. This guy wearing a Dow 15k hat to work today is hilarious. Only weeks after the other two traders wearing Dow 28k and Dow 29k hats.

  47. #197
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    The £ is now getting slaughtered

    look at the live exchange rates

    lowest against the $ for 30 years

    and 1.06 against the f.......ing Euro

  48. #198
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I've thought for a long time that my trigger point to dive back into the market (if the bottom fell out) was the Dow at 19900, but now I don't think so.
    Time to recalibrate. It went below 19000😳

  49. #199
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    The £ is now getting slaughtered

    look at the live exchange rates

    lowest against the $ for 30 years

    and 1.06 against the f.......ing Euro
    Why is this, are we perceived to be in greater sh#t than everyone else?

  50. #200
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Why is this, are we perceived to be in greater sh#t than everyone else?
    That is what I was thinking... I don’t understand this ...

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