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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #1901
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The question is not what they have done, but where did the inflow come from? No sensible explanation in the midst of a pandemic/recession other than people who are cashing in their stimulus checks.

    Don't think any other platform releases the data (remember if the service is free, you are the product).
    I've increased my investments during the pandemic simply due to having less outgoings and more disposable income in the lockdown. I know others that are the same.

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  2. #1902
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    Could it not be investors/gamblers who remember 2008/2009 and wish they'd have ploughed cash into the markets in March 2009 and dont want to miss the merry go round this time?

  3. #1903
    Yet the job losses continue.......

  4. #1904
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    Quote Originally Posted by xdonolix View Post
    I've increased my investments during the pandemic simply due to having less outgoings and more disposable income in the lockdown. I know others that are the same.

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    Quote Originally Posted by waiteu2 View Post
    Could it not be investors/gamblers who remember 2008/2009 and wish they'd have ploughed cash into the markets in March 2009 and dont want to miss the merry go round this time?
    You may very well think that, but it doesn't rhyme with the pessimism by institutional investors.

    Remember I posted a few weeks ago that one of my friends who works in wealth management said that his customers are buying equities because they are afraid of inflation. I have not heard a single professional investor mentioning that they expect any meaningful inflation (save the gold bugs, who have talked about nothing else - and were wrong about it - for 20 years).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You may very well think that, but it doesn't rhyme with the pessimism by institutional investors.

    Remember I posted a few weeks ago that one of my friends who works in wealth management said that his customers are buying equities because they are afraid of inflation. I have not heard a single professional investor mentioning that they expect any meaningful inflation (save the gold bugs, who have talked about nothing else - and were wrong about it - for 20 years).
    amongst other indicators I always watch the Gold price which is down 4% in sterling terms this week

    I sold my 2 gold miners last week but I expect to buy back sometime in the near future

  6. #1906
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    Woo-hoo, my small airline group was up 14% today!

  7. #1907
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Woo-hoo, my small airline group was up 14% today!
    Yes but you needed to get into real airline stocks, just the 200%+ rise today: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/...c/company-page

  8. #1908
    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Yes but you needed to get into real airline stocks, just the 200%+ rise today: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/...c/company-page
    Good old aim p and d

  9. #1909
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    Blue Horseshoe loves Bluestar Airlines?

  10. #1910
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Yes but you needed to get into real airline stocks, just the 200%+ rise today: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/...c/company-page
    Fastjet is prob not a good example having lost 99% of its value in recent times...


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  11. #1911
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    Interesting analysis/observation of the U.S. stock market moments ago on marketwatch.com:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...?mod=home-page

    .................................................. .................

    Published: June 9, 2020 at 12:03 a.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre

    ‘Many money managers have been caught under invested and they are under tremendous pressure,’ says independent analyst

    On Monday, the Dow DJIA, +1.70% finished within 7% of its Feb. 12 closing peak, while the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.20% ended the session 4.5% from its Feb. 19 record closing high. The Nasdaq COMP, +1.12%, however, gained 110.66 points, or 1.1%, ending at 9,924.74, marking its first all-time closing record in four months.

    What’s driving the market?

    Newfound faith in the vibrancy of the American economy and stimulus measures have propelled the equity markets to new heights.
    “So far, the equity market is telling us the economic recovery will be far more vigorous than consensus expects,” wrote analysts at Fundstrat Global Advisors, founded by Thomas Lee, in a Monday research note.

    The Nasdaq’s stunning closing record and the broad-market’s S&P 500 erasure of all of its 2020 losses at the session’s close came even as the National Bureau of Economic Research, considered the official arbiter of domestic recessions, on Monday declared that recession in the U.S. officially took hold in February, ending a 128-month expansion — the longest dating to 1854.
    Monday’s rally is an extension of Friday’s surge that came after Labor Department data showed an increase of 2.5 million jobs in May, when experts had expected steep losses, representing arguably the biggest payrolls surprise in history and enlivening stock-market bulls.
    “Many money managers have been caught under-invested and they are under tremendous pressure. They have to publish quarterly reports at the end of this month,” wrote independent market analyst Stephen Todd in a Monday research note.
    Looking ahead, investors will watch for a report on job openings at 10 a.m. Eastern, along with an update on wholesale trade. A usually lesser-followed report on the confidence of small-businesses, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, also will be watched at 6 a.m.

  12. #1912
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jlynch1984 View Post
    Fastjet is prob not a good example having lost 99% of its value in recent times...


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    It was obviously said in jest, garbage stock if ever there was one.

    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    “Many money managers have been caught under-invested and they are under tremendous pressure. They have to publish quarterly reports at the end of this month,” wrote independent market analyst Stephen Todd in a Monday research note.
    What quarterly report is he referring to here? I presume it's the quarterly SEC 13F report? If so it will be a snapshot of holdings at the end of this month but won't be due to be published until mid Aug and will be 45 days looking back which will be a lifetime in these fast moving markets.
    Last edited by ~dadam02~; 9th June 2020 at 06:26.

  13. #1913
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    It was obviously said in jest, garbage stock if ever there was one.


    What quarterly report is he referring to here? I presume it's the quarterly SEC 13F report? If so it will be a snapshot of holdings at the end of this month but won't be due to be published until mid Aug and will be 45 days looking back which will be a lifetime in these fast moving markets.
    Yes, but almost immediately each fund's Q2 percentage returns will become available on all the various analytical sites. If they're still sitting on cash while their competitors are making money on a market upswing, they may lose investors.

  14. #1914
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Yes, but almost immediately each fund's Q2 percentage returns will become available on all the various analytical sites. If they're still sitting on cash while their competitors are making money on a market upswing, they may lose investors.
    Interesting, every days a school day thanks.

  15. #1915
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Interesting analysis/observation of the U.S. stock market moments ago on marketwatch.com:

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do...?mod=home-page

    .................................................. .................

    Published: June 9, 2020 at 12:03 a.m. ET
    By Mark DeCambre

    ‘Many money managers have been caught under invested and they are under tremendous pressure,’ says independent analyst

    On Monday, the Dow DJIA, +1.70% finished within 7% of its Feb. 12 closing peak, while the S&P 500 index SPX, +1.20% ended the session 4.5% from its Feb. 19 record closing high. The Nasdaq COMP, +1.12%, however, gained 110.66 points, or 1.1%, ending at 9,924.74, marking its first all-time closing record in four months.

    What’s driving the market?

    Newfound faith in the vibrancy of the American economy and stimulus measures have propelled the equity markets to new heights.
    “So far, the equity market is telling us the economic recovery will be far more vigorous than consensus expects,” wrote analysts at Fundstrat Global Advisors, founded by Thomas Lee, in a Monday research note.

    The Nasdaq’s stunning closing record and the broad-market’s S&P 500 erasure of all of its 2020 losses at the session’s close came even as the National Bureau of Economic Research, considered the official arbiter of domestic recessions, on Monday declared that recession in the U.S. officially took hold in February, ending a 128-month expansion — the longest dating to 1854.
    Monday’s rally is an extension of Friday’s surge that came after Labor Department data showed an increase of 2.5 million jobs in May, when experts had expected steep losses, representing arguably the biggest payrolls surprise in history and enlivening stock-market bulls.
    “Many money managers have been caught under-invested and they are under tremendous pressure. They have to publish quarterly reports at the end of this month,” wrote independent market analyst Stephen Todd in a Monday research note.
    Looking ahead, investors will watch for a report on job openings at 10 a.m. Eastern, along with an update on wholesale trade. A usually lesser-followed report on the confidence of small-businesses, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, also will be watched at 6 a.m.
    Thanks for posting, this thread needs more bullish content for balance.

    What bothers me about this is that money managers should be acting on their analysis. If they are in cash I assume that means they think the market does not offer value yet they are compelled to join the herd ...

  16. #1916


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  17. #1917
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    I sold pretty much everything else I had this morning other than stuff which is still significantly detached from reality and worth holding through.

    When you read that the Nasdaq is at an all time high, S&P 4% off its high etc you just have to hold your nerve and not get freaked out by irrationality, fundamentals will drive sentiment, the tide will go out and you know what happens next.

    I made 80% on IAG in 2 weeks...for a company that is subject to government restrictions that kill their trade and is losing £ms per day, I expected to hold it for a couple of years and get 25%, instead you bank the profit and wait for the reversal

    Do your own research, but facts are the economy is in the bin, end of


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  18. #1918
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    Quite a refreshing amount of red in the market today.

  19. #1919
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    A fund I was looking at has jumped 15% since I was supposed to buy-in last month...so frustrating when you can't figure out why this is all going on

  20. #1920
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    I hold quite a few biotech and pharma stocks / funds and I can understand why they have held up reasonably well. But the airlines and other travel related businesses... I just don’t get that at all. I usually fly long haul twice a month with my work, but I’m almost certain I won’t be stepping on a plane again until 2021.

    Truly amazing times

  21. #1921
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    I’ve just bought a load of SGLN and SSLN (Silver and gold ETCs)

    I’m now only invested in those two across SIPP/ISA/Fund&Share Account. (About 60% still in cash)

    Going back 15 years when I started running my own SIPP I always took the view that I’d be in passive global trackers during the bull runs and in gold/metals during the bear runs.

    Hold tight - my bet is that the bears are on the way!

  22. #1922
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    Yet all is well in the markets.

    The Guardian: UK jobs outlook gloomiest in nearly 30 years amid Covid-19 pandemic.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business...urlough-scheme

  23. #1923
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    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quite a lot of companies may be taking the opportunity to restructure, they may not end up coming out of this as badly as some expect.


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  24. #1924
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lomax99 View Post
    Quite a lot of companies may be taking the opportunity to restructure, they may not end up coming out of this as badly as some expect.


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    And/or renegotiate employment Ts&Cs with their workforce.

  25. #1925
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    Is buying “digital” physical gold at the Royal Mint a reasonable strategy if we want to invest some money in bullion?

    Costs 1% to sell. And 0.5% pa storage fee.

    Aware that CGT will kick in above a certain level so Britannia coins more sensible above a certain amount....as long as you have somewhere to safely stash them. (I’m not confident I do)

  26. #1926
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plake View Post
    Is buying “digital” physical gold at the Royal Mint a reasonable strategy if we want to invest some money in bullion?

    Costs 1% to sell. And 0.5% pa storage fee.

    Aware that CGT will kick in above a certain level so Britannia coins more sensible above a certain amount....as long as you have somewhere to safely stash them. (I’m not confident I do)
    I thought Royal Mint coins were exempt from CGT?

  27. #1927
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    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    I thought Royal Mint coins were exempt from CGT?
    Yep they are, but the “digital” gold is not in coin form. But cheaper per oz and no storage risks.

  28. #1928
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    Britannia coins are the best/simplest thing to buy if you want to own the physical gold.

    Can’t do that within a SIPP or ISA though.

    The spread between buying and selling physical gold is often big and it can be a pain in the ass trying to sell it.

    Exchange traded commodities (ETC) that hold the physical metal on your behalf (for a small fee) is a lot easier. You can buy and sell in a matter of seconds.

    I’d love to have the actual gold I now own here at home. 3 kilos of the stuff in coins would look mighty impressive! I could play pirate games with my daughter.

  29. #1929
    Well there is on obviously a lot of doomy data to come out and we are heading more and more about job losses

    But we've also yet to hear from the retailers who are trading, here and the US, it's entirely possible, and I'd say likely, the trade focused businesses are trading better than expected , there will be good news as well as bad

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  30. #1930
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Britannia coins are the best/simplest thing to buy if you want to own the physical gold.

    Can’t do that within a SIPP or ISA though.

    The spread between buying and selling physical gold is often big and it can be a pain in the ass trying to sell it.

    Exchange traded commodities (ETC) that hold the physical metal on your behalf (for a small fee) is a lot easier. You can buy and sell in a matter of seconds.

    I’d love to have the actual gold I now own here at home. 3 kilos of the stuff in coins would look mighty impressive! I could play pirate games with my daughter.
    Sounds like the Royal Mint are offering a kind of ETC (as well as shipping out physical gold) if I’m understanding it correctly.

    Probably not the cheapest in terms of fees though.

  31. #1931
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Interesting site: https://robintrack.net/

    They are analysing the trading habits of small investors; for many stocks there is an explosive inflow of new retail investors since March/April - which coincides with the distribution of the US stimulus checks. Many of those checks seem to have gone right into the fallen angels of the stock markets. Compare the number of investors (green line) with the price development (pink line):

    American Airlines:


    Until February, a stable 10,000 or so small retail investors - now 600,000

    Delta Airlines:


    Same, from 15k to 550k investors

    Carnival Cruises:



    Amazing.
    Someone from the FT is a TZ-UK user:

    "Retail investors bet on bankrupt US companies rising again"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b592847a-...5-3b22a2153210

  32. #1932
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    Top Director Sells

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 80.00p
    Value: £80,000.00

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 79.23p
    Value: £79,230.00

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 77.55p
    Value: £77,550.00

  33. #1933
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Top Director Sells

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 80.00p
    Value: £80,000.00

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 79.23p
    Value: £79,230.00

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 77.55p
    Value: £77,550.00
    Interesting find mate. Does it give dates on them?


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  34. #1934
    Nasdaq through 10,000

    Apple and Amazon all time highs significant moves today

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  35. #1935
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Top Director Sells

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 80.00p
    Value: £80,000.00

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 79.23p
    Value: £79,230.00

    Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML)
    Director name: AbouelSeoud,Amr Ali Abdallah
    Amount sold: 100,000 @ 77.55p
    Value: £77,550.00
    And?

  36. #1936
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Britannia coins are the best/simplest thing to buy if you want to own the physical gold.

    Can’t do that within a SIPP or ISA though.

    The spread between buying and selling physical gold is often big and it can be a pain in the ass trying to sell it.

    Exchange traded commodities (ETC) that hold the physical metal on your behalf (for a small fee) is a lot easier. You can buy and sell in a matter of seconds.

    I’d love to have the actual gold I now own here at home. 3 kilos of the stuff in coins would look mighty impressive! I could play pirate games with my daughter.
    Mr Noble owning a lot of gold coins, who’d of thought that!!

  37. #1937
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skyman View Post
    And?
    Often gives a good insight into internal perspective on company future? The missing piece is to show his total holding, this might be chump change.


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  38. #1938
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    Quote Originally Posted by gingerpaul View Post
    Someone from the FT is a TZ-UK user:

    "Retail investors bet on bankrupt US companies rising again"

    https://www.ft.com/content/b592847a-...5-3b22a2153210

    LOLZ, FTalphaville also has the story today - I beat them by 24 hours.


    https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/06/...-zombie-rally/

  39. #1939
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chr1stof View Post
    Interesting find mate. Does it give dates on them?


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    yesterday

  40. #1940
    Dow futures +150

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  41. #1941
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    This is Hertz:



    They filed for bankruptcy on 22 May, that's the day the price fell from $2.83 to 80 cents. After some initial volatility, the stock has traded 80-ish cents for the past weeks, while the market digested the news that there wasn't much to expect for shareholders due to the complicated structure of off-balance sheet assets.

    Fast forward to yesterday, when the absolutely worthless stock came to life with no news at all and has now all but quadrupled in 24 hours, now trading higher than on the day before the bankruptcy filing. Lot's of speculation that US retail investors are putting their $1,200 stimulus checks to work. Happy days.
    This is Hertz today. After losing 40% during the regular trading sessions, Hertz shares dropping another 13% after hours. (Some) common sense returning?


  42. #1942
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    Maybe it is......there have been so many pointers to the markets being unhinged from reality. It seems crazy that stocks like Hertz could be so high when they’re effectively bankrupt.


    On another point.......

    Can you explain how after hours works?

    I always thought it unfair that us lowly sofa surfing “investors” are blocked off of trading while the party still goes on for others.

    I appreciate that the stock markets around the world all have different open/close times of the day, but how can a share continue to be bought and sold when the market is closed?

  43. #1943
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Maybe it is......there have been so many pointers to the markets being unhinged from reality. It seems crazy that stocks like Hertz could be so high when theyā€™re effectively bankrupt.


    On another point.......

    Can you explain how after hours works?

    I always thought it unfair that us lowly sofa surfing ā€œinvestorsā€ are blocked off of trading while the party still goes on for others.

    I appreciate that the stock markets around the world all have different open/close times of the day, but how can a share continue to be bought and sold when the market is closed?
    The US market is open from 9:30h to 16:00h Eastern (6.5 hours), which is by far the shortest trading hours in developed markets. For many years the pre market opened at 8:15h local time and closed at 18:30h - but nowadays it goes from 04:00h to 20:00h.

    Most banks and brokers are offering all investors, including retail, access to the extended hours. However important to understand that market making is thinner and as such there is a risk of exaggerated moves or gaps in pricing - but the markets are very liquid at least inside the core hours. I quite like trading outside of the official opening hours as I very often trade during evenings and nights.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  44. #1944
    Oh well, apparently there is a gloomy outlook

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  45. #1945
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Oh well, apparently there is a gloomy outlook

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    Was very crazy just after the release of the Fed outlook yesterday. I had a sell order for DJ futures in at 27,200 and they got executed while the market was trading at 27,070s, then two minutes later it skyrocketed to 27,400 only to collapse afterwards. Apparently the outlook for zero interest rates through 2022 isn't enough to prop up the market anymore and investors are starting to focus on the underlying fundamentals. Looks like the stimulus checks have all been spent by now and the institutions are taking over the steering wheel again...?

    Overnight very weak price action, I think we will shed another few hundred points today.

  46. #1946
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    Only spreadbet on the index, but they also give you a real-time summary of trade positions on the platform....check this:



    LBG was 100% long, 91% and 90% for Barclays and RBS

    The bad debt tsunami is coming, hope these boys are day trading or have plenty of funds to cover the margin


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  47. #1947
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    weakness started yesterday and it's continuing this morning

    could this be the start of the "sell off?f"
    Last edited by BillN; 11th June 2020 at 09:11.

  48. #1948
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    DJ is now down 1,000 points versus the post-Fed bounce from yesterday.

  49. #1949
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That's the risk with jumping on overhyped stocks, especially when they only have one product. The outcome becomes very binary.

    Let's see what becomes of our forum darling. Anyone for a three month bet?
    Nobody took me up on the Novacyt bet. Down 50% from the mid-April peak.

  50. #1950
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    So happy to see the markets tanking as at least some semblance of reality is coming back. However people are irrational so the sell off will be too severe, I'll buy back into index trackers once the DJIA is 40% down from now. It will go c50% down I'm sure (replicating the credit crunch) but I don't want to miss the bounce up as you can at least double your portfolio value if you play the next 6 months right
    Last edited by ryanb741; 11th June 2020 at 09:59.

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