Reply With QuoteCrazy place, hopefully you rode out CRUD, after falling 30% it’s now in profitOriginally Posted by ~dadam02~
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Bought a very modest amount of ITM a few weeks ago after reading some brokers commentary. Just checked them and they are 50% up. Why oh why when this happens is it always on a modest purchase. And when I go in more significantly it’s 20% down ?!?!
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Crazy place, hopefully you rode out CRUD, after falling 30% it’s now in profit
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Just read up on the 'vaccine hope' - it was a phase 1 trial with eight participants.
The world has officially gone crazy.
Great news for Rhesus Monkeys and mice though with some other vaccine trials. Seems like they can be immunised. Time to buy equities!
I am willing to bet your amount that when a vaccine is approved and deployed, it will not be this one. I am also willing to bet your amount that no vaccine will be approved and deployed before mid next year.
Any appetite for another bet?
Actually I was being ironic as of course immunising a Rhesus monkey or a mouse isn't the same as immunising a human safely so I was implying it was nuts the market was reacting so well to this.
Re the vaccine situation, I'm not going to take a bet for the following reason. Already the Oxford vaccine works. It will not immunise you from getting COVID but it will stop you getting pneumonia so you get a cold-like illness instead. It works.
What we don't know though is whether it works at scale safely. Contrary to what some believe we already have coronavirus vaccines today - primarily for livestock but also cats. However when it comes to risk assessment having 1 in 100 inoculated cattle come down with a severe liver disease is deemed fine from a risk persective. 1 in 100 humans less so. And I suspect this is what will hold back wider deployment. So I won't take the bet as to sum up I am confident the vaccine already works and that they know this, but I am not confident it will be deemed safe for widespread deployment so quickly.
4
I am willing to bet your amount that when a vaccine is approved and deployed, it will not be this one. I am also willing to bet your amount that no vaccine will be approved and deployed before mid next year.
Any appetite for another bet?
I did, original purchase was on 20/04 @ 2.82 then bought the dip on 28/04 @ 1.97. Went from ~30% down to now almost 30% up. This was always a longer term play so no intention to sell atm.
Oh come off it
Nope, we don't have a vaccine. We will have one when one is approved and manufactured. And that will not happen this year and will also bet with you that it will not be the Oxford vaccine.
To answer the OPs question right now seems that investing in anything, within reason, will turn a profit now.
I can’t begin to understand the optimism.
Talking with another client today who has furloughed a number of staff, and advised me that thay were almost all effectively redundant but will remain furloughed whilst they can be and then made redundant in due course once that scheme is tapered out as the business will take longer to recover and need those staff. That is one small business which must be typical of many ...
Like I said I too don't feel it will.come to the masses this year. Oxford will be one of several vaccines as there are likely to be different vaccines available for different groups. Oxford vaccine doesn't provide immunity but a vastly reduced disease and that may be deemed enough to start with.
Last edited by ryanb741; 18th May 2020 at 19:53.
It will never come to the market.
Phase 1 with just 8 patients and none older than 55. I believe they had a sars 1 vaccine in trials that was not too great for older people.Good rise in Modena since Feb thou
Yep have heard that with a number of small companies
Really interested in your thoughts as to why you think nothing will come of the Oxford vaccine.
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Just statistics. I will bet against any vaccine candidate, less than one in ten makes it to the market. Safest bet you can ever make.
I’m dubious we will ever see a vaccine or whether we have a couple of waves of this thing and eventually have to accept our fate. The only thing that gives me hope is that more resources are being thrown at this worldwide than anything previously.
Fully believe this. There is going to be a "to me, to you" baton relay between furlough and redundancy once businesses have to share the cost with government. Right now it's free money. The house of cards began to crumble but furlough just put it on pause for a few months. It's all still inevitable.
There are a lot of people Shielding (not just isolating) who are still in employment but having to work from home until something changes - I'm one of them. Don't take this as "to hell with old people" but if you have retired, then lockdown is less of an issue than for those of working age.
Agreed, see https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52719230
Although I’m starting to gradually conclude that central banks will do what ever it takes to prop the markets up. So maybe this is as low as it goes...
As far I know that fiat wallet is not generally universal for all cryptocurrencies so it is not uncommon to have one wallet to store Bitcoin, one to store ethereum, etc. Some wallets such as Naga can handle multiple Domain Default page is critical that the user make sure that the wallet they select supports the cryptocurrency that they are using.
Last edited by Derrils; 23rd May 2020 at 12:25.
Rolls 9000 job losses, airlines another 6000 gone
Yet the city rose 4% Monday, when will they start to consider we could have a historically high unemployment figure within 6 months instead of getting excited about a vaccine trial for 8 people?
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Also agree with this.
The organisation I work for have put a significant number of "back of house" staff on furlough, but have maintained pay (thus far) for the core operational sector which is keeping the rest of the business afloat.
We have lots of layers of management, but from a conversation with our Area Director earlier in the week, I'd be amazed if any more than 20% of those who have been furlough'ed weren't made redundant some time around October / November. All the furlough scheme is doing, in my view, is delaying the inevitable and giving people an excuse to stay in the house while the Govt advice remains woolly and loose.
Equally:
had a batch of these at 35p via a pin-stick punt; took up the rights at 40p last year and topped up a few more, so you would think I'd be delighted today at 240p. No no, I'm cursing selling a quarter of the holding last week at 180...
Shame on me, when did I get so greedy!
Anyone know why Bushveld Minerals Ltd has been the "most viewed" share on HL and other platforms for the last week or so?
I've been dripping back in with mostly tech stocks but also Scottish Mortgage Trust has apparently been an investors darling for years but I only heard of it last night and stuck some money in my SIPP on it today to see how it goes as I like the stock balance aside from the 12% or so in Tesla
HL nominee account is the single largest holder of their stock accounting for 18.18% of the total shares in issue as at 30 Apr, so hardly surprising.
Edit: looks like there is an acquisition ending today, announced 21/11/2019, end date = today.
"CellCube Energy Storage Systems Inc announced the sale of Enerox GmbH to a consortium led by Bushveld Minerals Ltd for EUR 11.00M. The transaction was announced on 11/12/2019 and is expected to be completed by 02/29/2020*."
*duration is 190 days, which takes us to today.
Last edited by ~dadam02~; 20th May 2020 at 15:31.
I would struggle to find a more overhyped stock than Tesla. Hopefully it is a long term hold and not a recent pick up.
You would think all the other auto firms won't take it lying down.
Thanks Dadam. Explains why it’s top in HL most viewed.
Agreed, when you look at their market cap compared with other car makers and the number of vehicles they produce it looks ludicrous. Do any Tesla have and valuable IP and protectable patents that would carve them a competitive advantage in the electric car market?
There’s a lot more to Tesla than making a few cars.
I think the share price is costing in their future plans to start powering homes and installing massive solar battery farms around the world. They could end up being the BP/Shell of the future.
Trouble is they have a CEO who is officially nuts and have never earned a penny by conducting their core business. Any profits they have ever booked come from selling emission certificates. That business is worth 150 billion USD according to the stock exchange, which is more than Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz together.
Nah. Overpriced stuff.
Here is a graphic to ponder.
I'd say most of the Dow is overpriced
If they rebound. Keep your money.
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Bubble boy.
Just saying:
Last edited by Raffe; 20th May 2020 at 19:13.
You shorting Tesla then?Just saying:
I wouldn’t trust Musk as far as I could throw him (I’ve a couple of dodgy rotator cuffs too).
Been short Tesla for most of the year and would be heavily in the red if it wasn't for the March sell-off from $800 to $400. I have learned my lesson: it's a cult and common sense doesn't apply - just stay away.
With Tesla it’s almost as if the stock has become a digital currency, the business is a side show. It’s just a store of capital.
Somebody once told me that the product is not the cars, but the shares. I think that's spot on.
Makes sense, cult seems an appropriate word. I spent too much time on share forums years ago where people would become literally obsessed with a particular share and nothing (and I mean nothing) would sway them otherwise. Even when presented with facts, they could convince themselves and others that they knew better. They were normally AIM shares (GKP or SXX for examples) to be fair but quite frightening how you could see it take over peoples lives in some cases.
I think that was you, last time on forum at least.
LOL, yes I think I posted it before. But I don't claim ownership.
WeWork tried to play that game, alas didn’t quite work for them.
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The biggest component in my SIPP, has been excellent performer.
Bought further (in ISA) towards end March and already up >50%
Talking of which, BTC on 21/05/2019 was 8,007 USD currently trading at 9,530 USD. A quick pass on the calculator shows that as a shade over +19% YTD.
S&P 500 edging a little closer to 3000, I wonder if it can break through the barrier, its been flirting with the 3000 for weeks now and when its been around 2950 its always fallen back so far.
All my US funds/IT (not all tech stuff) have now all recovered to precov19 prices( 2 of them have reached all time highs, priced higher now than before the meltdown)
Personally it all feels like a bubble!
SMT is now about 13% higher than precovid19!
It’s almost 50% YTD, I guess many still don’t include crypto in some of this analysis as it’s not an established asset to many. It’s certainly becoming more mainstream but it’s not for me.
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