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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    It’s now dipped below the point it was at in 2010. That’s 10 year of growth wiped off in 2 weeks. Frightening.

    Well done to those who sold up in February.

    Like so many others, I’ve been painfully watching my pension and savings value plummet over the last 2 weeks, unable to do anything about it with any level of confidence.

    Luckily, with around 20 years until I’ll draw on the pension, by then it’ll just be another blip, but what a difference we all could have made if we’d acted to sell up at the 1st signs of trouble.
    in previous "major events" you could safely rely on everything halving; my gut feeling is this is bigger than anything before and coming in an era of greater globalisation we are all in it together & that it could half again ie down to a quarter of Jan 2020 levels….. and then a 5 to 10 year recovery. I am not sure it will be just "another blip" - I was hoping to retire in 10 years and those illusionary assumptions we make when we look at our investments are looking rather shattered.

    my accountant emailed me this morning saying I could top up my SIPP before April 5th - I may well do that to get the tax benefit..... but will I actually know what to buy with it... not a chance ! BA have a cash pile of 9 billion GBP, and once they start burning through that and other airlines go bust it may be many months before we see how a whole new economy starts again.

    I think residential property might be the safe defensive play, but you can't buy that with your pension funds.

  2. #102
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    Like millions of others I'm pretty f***** to be honest in terms of losses and plans. We have a broad spread of decent funds covering most sectors and geographies but I failed to see it coming and waited and waited - now I daren't look at our valuations. Decades of prudent working, saving, solid investments and plans to begin to retire in five years but I think this really is a 1929 moment and far, far worse is still to come on top of this mornings UK/EU drops. Just wait for the Dow to open later today. I really think we are talking not years but maybe even more than a decade to get back.

    This is new territory and with interest rates where they are and most options used up there is nothing governments and institutions can do to help this time. Not just little cafes and shops will go we're talking huge casualties that will bring the banks with them.

    The old cliche 'not timing the market but time in the market' comes to mind but at a certain age and having ridden the bull market you realise there is not that time left to recover the losses and you should have been even more prudent as you count down the years to retirement.

    Only actual advice I'd say is drip it in as always over the next 12 months if you dare - that's what I plan when the 5th April 2020 ISA allowance kicks in. At least to buy back some of the funds/trackers dirt cheap that were not dirt cheap two months ago...

    Don't buy now though - we're 30% + down and I think we could end up at double that.

    Bollocks to it all. Just a great time to be a motorcyclist is all I can add - self isolate on the open road and enjoy the cheap petrol and try and forget it all.
    Last edited by Max...; 16th March 2020 at 12:34.

  3. #103
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    ooof that's a punch to the gut Max, my sympathies. I suspect, as with '08 the financial infrastructure, the banks, will be supported and bailed out.

  4. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    ooof that's a punch to the gut Max, my sympathies. I suspect, as with '08 the financial infrastructure, the banks, will be supported and bailed out.
    I don't know - who bails out the bailer outers?

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Max... View Post
    I don't know - who bails out the bailer outers?
    Tax payers last time so unless all economic activity ceases and the economy just stops completely never to restart I think more creative use of the same.


    Unless maybe this is the big one requiring a global debt jubilee and reboot of the system, but that seems fantastical, the billionaires would never go for it. Lolz.
    Last edited by Passenger; 16th March 2020 at 12:54.

  6. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Max... View Post
    Like millions of others I'm pretty f***** to be honest in terms of losses and plans....
    Sorry to hear that, hopefully it will recover in double quick time for you but I agree on the small businesses being hammered and some big blue chip institutions could go.

    Point of all this is that it is a full global crisis, unlike 1987 - 2008 they were certain countries and economies that hit the skids, a full global crisis leaves limited to no markets to turn too.

    Where do we go from here?


    Also I must say, this thread is for the financial aspect of this virus, I appreciate people saying its callous thinking of money when people are dying but there is plenty of other threads to discuss that side of the crisis, I for one am very worried for family and neighbours but discussing the markets offers a lighter side to what is happening.

  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    RR mainly build military based products but have recently started to move into commercial aircraft engine repair, so yes some of their clients could well go bust..

    I do agree this could get a lot worse, small rises will make money very short term as in daily trading but over the coming months those rises will be ate up by falling markets, be interesting to see what the DOW does when it opens..
    Dow currently heading for a minus 11% opening.

  8. #108
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Dow currently heading for a minus 11% opening.
    If that's true it will drop over 2500 points, so from 23000 to 20500 - is that right?? Hitting 0% yesterday leaves the Dow nowhere to go..

  9. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    If that's true it will drop over 2500 points, so from 23000 to 20500 - is that right?? Hitting 0% yesterday leaves the Dow nowhere to go..
    Yep.

    Currently down 'only' 10%.

  10. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yep.

    Currently down 'only' 10%.
    Lord knows what happens when we 1. hit peak hysteria (especially in the States) and 2. actually start seeing economic fallout if/when Italy needs a bailout.

  11. #111
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    the £ has fallen quite a bit over the past couple of weeks - from 1.20 to 1.10 to the Euros - although the "experts" are saying that it is over done - but what do they know.

    normally when the £ falls against the US $ the market, FTSE, goes the other way!!!!!

  12. #112
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    Lord knows what happens when we 1. hit peak hysteria (especially in the States) and 2. actually start seeing economic fallout if/when Italy needs a bailout.
    I thought this yesterday, if Italy needs a bail out is the Eurozone in a capable position to do that or even sort itself out? Don't want to start another brexit thread but the Euro could be in real danger if Italy hands its keys back..

  13. #113
    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I thought this yesterday, if Italy needs a bail out is the Eurozone in a capable position to do that or even sort itself out? Don't want to start another brexit thread but the Euro could be in real danger if Italy hands its keys back..
    I've briefly addressed this in the Pit - https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...=1#post5349371

  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    I've briefly addressed this in the Pit - https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...=1#post5349371
    but the Euro has gone the other way - strengthened against the £ - now 1.10 from 1.20.......... and firm today?
    Last edited by BillN; 16th March 2020 at 13:41.

  15. #115
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    Maybe the money markets don't have much confidence in the British boffins virus plan. I mean it's difficult to find any epidemiologist, apart from HMG's 2 tame ones, and one of them isn't qualified as such, who seem to think it's a good idea...
    Last edited by Passenger; 16th March 2020 at 13:48.

  16. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    I've briefly addressed this in the Pit - https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...=1#post5349371
    Just read, interesting how life takes twists and turns, maybe one of the reasons Boris wants us to keep going, we keep our economy trickling along and come out the other end as a powerhouse economy with negotiating power over Europe?

  17. #117
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    but the Euro has gone the other way - strengthened against the £ - now 1.10 from 1.20.......... and firm today?
    I take your point. Sterling was over valued at 1.20. Some correction and it may say more about the current confidence in the UK economy than it does about the Euro. I still think it will happen. And it is still technically a Brexit benefit....

  18. #118
    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Just read, interesting how life takes twists and turns, maybe one of the reasons Boris wants us to keep going, we keep our economy trickling along and come out the other end as a powerhouse economy with negotiating power over Europe?
    I do think it will be used as leverage for a trade deal - i.e. we end up helping the EU to pay for the Italian bailout to get the deal we want on our terms.

  19. #119
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yep.

    Currently down 'only' 10%.
    Wow, nearly 12% down - 20,527.10 and circuit breakers kicked in.
    Last edited by murkeywaters; 16th March 2020 at 15:14.

  20. #120
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    I thought investors turned to gold in times such as these. So why is the gold price dropping as well? Where's all the cash going when everybody is selling?

  21. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by trident-7 View Post
    I thought investors turned to gold in times such as these. So why is the gold price dropping as well? Where's all the cash going when everybody is selling?
    The assumption is people are having to liquidate gold to cover other losses in the market which is dragging the price down.

  22. #122
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    Yep when precious metals are getting thumped too you know itís bad. Platinum looks extremely cheap now for anyone feeling brave.

    We would probably expect to gold hit a bottom and then recover quite strongly in these sorts of conditions. However, who knows?

  23. #123
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    Quote Originally Posted by trident-7 View Post
    I thought investors turned to gold in times such as these. So why is the gold price dropping as well? Where's all the cash going when everybody is selling?
    I presume US Treasuries and USD.

  24. #124
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    I think I would invest in a pram/baby seat manufacturer. After all, this self-isolating/event cancelled/pubs-closed/stay-indoors situation can only result in a massive birth bubble late 2020 early 2021.

  25. #125
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    I've just turned 40 so I'm trying to look at it from the point of view that I can continue to buy my pension funds at a cheap price and accumulate more than I would have otherwise been able too.

    In the mean time, I've bought some more Bitcoin which is also screwed!

    I did manage to get some bog roll at the weekend so when the end does come I'll be able to trade it for food hopefully

  26. #126
    Quote Originally Posted by TomGW View Post
    I think I would invest in a pram/baby seat manufacturer. After all, this self-isolating/event cancelled/pubs-closed/stay-indoors situation can only result in a massive birth bubble late 2020 early 2021.
    My wife and I were just wondering about this. Not the buying shares part. We think we will come out of Corona expecting or divorced!

  27. #127
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    My wife and I were just wondering about this. Not the buying shares part. We think we will come out of Corona expecting or divorced!
    Lol good observation. Could be lots of new babies in 9-12 months!

  28. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Wow, nearly 12% down - 20,527.10 and circuit breakers kicked in.
    Down 3,000 at market closing.

  29. #129
    I'm shocked Apple is at 242. I was sure it would be below 200 by now and will be surprised if it's still above 150 by the end of the summer. If you think posh watches will get battered in this market wait for £1.3k phones / £90 per month line rentals.

  30. #130
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    With so much home working going on, Iíd invest in PornHub or some such equivalent. Demand will be sky high.

  31. #131
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    I'm shocked Apple is at 242. I was sure it would be below 200 by now and will be surprised if it's still above 150 by the end of the summer. If you think posh watches will get battered in this market wait for £1.3k phones / £90 per month line rentals.
    I think it is probably because Apple are awash with cash, rather than any reaction to future sales.

  32. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    I'm shocked Apple is at 242. I was sure it would be below 200 by now and will be surprised if it's still above 150 by the end of the summer. If you think posh watches will get battered in this market wait for £1.3k phones / £90 per month line rentals.
    I wouldn't bet on that. Apparently an iPhone is more important than healthy food these days.

    Short car manufacturers, banks, travel and entertainment companies rather than luxury goods.

  33. #133
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I think it is probably because Apple are awash with cash, rather than any reaction to future sales.
    Apple has enough cash to keep going at full pelt with all staff for (prob) 50 years before it runs out but it's pricing is wild and when all those contracts are due for renewal the majority will go for a sim only. I think many will be looking at their direct debits over the coming weeks and months. Voluntary terminations on second and third cars will surely also follow.
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I wouldn't bet on that. Apparently an iPhone is more important than healthy food these days.

    Short car manufacturers, banks, travel and entertainment companies rather than luxury goods.
    I'm too scared to go short or long on anything. I've increased my pension contribution at work and signed up for another employee share cycle, but other than that I'm out. Need to keep funds for house purchase.

  34. #134
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    As the song goes, "Call me irresponsible..." In the wake of the largest one-day point loss in the history of the Dow, I just placed a modest investment in the stocks of six large U.S. airline companies. In the past 30 days, these six airlines have lost between 40% and 60% of their market value to the coronavirus. Although I read some discussion earlier in the day about possible airline 'bankruptcies,' I quickly gained some confidence when I heard that Trump was reacting very favorably to the airline industry's proposal for a $50 billion aid package.

    I was extremely lucky to dump all my stock holdings at the start of the crisis, so now I figure I can dabble a bit on the "wild side" with an amount that wouldn't hurt too bad if it all went down the toilet. Fingers crossed.

  35. #135
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    That's the problem with publicly announced bailouts: it transfers the risk of investment from you to the government. Trump's intention is less to save the airlines but the airline investors.

    Good luck with your investment.

  36. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That's the problem with publicly announced bailouts: it transfers the risk of investment from you to the government. Trump's intention is less to save the airlines but the airline investors.

    Good luck with your investment.
    It may take a couple years to realize any decent gain, since we're not at bottom yet.

  37. #137
    Having listened to Gillian Tett on Newsnight I wouldnít bank on these government bailouts especially for airlines.

    However much cheap debt the Government wants to borrow, there is a limit to who is there who can buy the debt.

    If we are in for several months of living at home our expenditure will be paired down to absolute essentials. Your car will sit outside unused, with standing costs, and depreciating. We will be down to spending on utilities, insurance (if the insurers donít fail) and food and medicine - assuming supply chains hold up.

    Come June, I predict the markets will be worth 25% of what they were in January


    Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app

  38. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    As the song goes, "Call me irresponsible..." In the wake of the largest one-day point loss in the history of the Dow, I just placed a modest investment in the stocks of six large U.S. airline companies. In the past 30 days, these six airlines have lost between 40% and 60% of their market value to the coronavirus. Although I read some discussion earlier in the day about possible airline 'bankruptcies,' I quickly gained some confidence when I heard that Trump was reacting very favorably to the airline industry's proposal for a $50 billion aid package.

    I was extremely lucky to dump all my stock holdings at the start of the crisis, so now I figure I can dabble a bit on the "wild side" with an amount that wouldn't hurt too bad if it all went down the toilet. Fingers crossed.
    Blimey PC you got stones, I'll give you that, best of luck.

  39. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by dandanthewatchman View Post
    Come June, I predict the markets will be worth 25% of what they were in January.
    There's going to be turmoil no doubt but hopefully the underlying trend will be shock followed by organised, pragmatic damage limitation rather than full on economic panic. I understand the need to flatten the curve but it'll be interesting to see how much sensible control is maintained.

  40. #140
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    I sold a house a few years ago and never got round to investing the cash - partly as I was living abroad and my plans were a bit unclear. In a selfish way I'm trying to see this as a chance to buy in at unexpectedly low levels, but I've really got no clue how bad things will get. Very strange times.

  41. #141
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    Well, Iíve bottled it and sold out.

    Itís taken me 25 years to build up a diversified isa portfolio spread around the globe and I have now sold the lot. Iíve made nice profit but Iíve also left some significant gains behind. Of course I wish Iíd jumped sooner but hey ho.

    The portfolio was significant in my plans and I couldnít tolerate any further reductions as I can only see this getting worse.

    I have held through previous market shocks but the nature of this situation is too much for my nerve.

    I still hold my pension fund but that is a more conservative mix so Iíll let that run.

    Time will tell if this proves a wise decision but if feel better for it. Time to sit on the cash and watch, I will re-enter the market in time.

  42. #142
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    FWIW I don't think that was an imprudent move Montello, anyway you feel better for it so that's a positive.

  43. #143
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    FWIW I don't think that was an imprudent move Montello, anyway you feel better for it so that's a positive.
    Aye, I will sleep better tonight.

    Iíve been a long term investor and have done well out of it, part of me feels foolish for jumping and part of me feels foolish for not jumping sooner. However, over the years my decisions have fared well on average so what ever the market brings I wonít have any regrets.

    I just wish this whole mess would go away as itís also affecting some property deals and my business.

    Itís hurting but Iím thankful I can take a bit of pain, I really feel for the many poor people whoís jobs and business will be serverly effected.

  44. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Aye, I will sleep better tonight.

    I’ve been a long term investor and have done well out of it, part of me feels foolish for jumping and part of me feels foolish for not jumping sooner. However, over the years my decisions have fared well on average so what ever the market brings I won’t have any regrets.

    I just wish this whole mess would go away as it’s also affecting some property deals and my business.

    It’s hurting but I’m thankful I can take a bit of pain, I really feel for the many poor people who’s jobs and business will be serverly effected.
    Almost impossible to see how it won't get worse before it gets better...Capital economics just predicted the UK could see gdp drop between 10 to 20 percent next quarter, so lets go with mid range 15 percent for the moment cf to 2008 'only' 6 percent...that's real lasting pain, no quick return to normality.
    Last edited by Passenger; 17th March 2020 at 13:11.

  45. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Almost impossible to see how it won't get worse before it gets better...Capital economics just predicted the UK could see gdp drop between 10 to 20 percent next quarter, so lets go with mid range 15 percent for the moment cf to 2008 'only' 6 percent...that's real pain.
    Itís those sorts of indicators that pushed me over the edge.

    Iím certain we will see some extreme monetary policy put in place to fix this which I expect will see more money printed and pressure on the banks to prop up good businesses with cash flow issues.

    Now Iím in cash Iím worried about inflation.

    Governments and Central banks will have a lot to do to fix this and with interest rates as they are Iím wondering what they have left up their sleeves, will be see helicopter money?

  46. #146
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Itís those sorts of indicators that pushed me over the edge.

    Iím certain we will see some extreme monetary policy put in place to fix this which I expect will see more money printed and pressure on the banks to prop up good businesses with cash flow issues.

    Now Iím in cash Iím worried about inflation.

    Governments and Central banks will have a lot to do to fix this and with interest rates as they are Iím wondering what they have left up their sleeves, will be see helicopter money?
    Indeed zirp already nowhere to go and then there's that other systemic shock for the UK/EU lurking at years end.

  47. #147
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Now Iím in cash Iím worried about inflation.
    Gold will then be your friend.

  48. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Gold will then be your friend.
    Will it? Price currently dropping.

  49. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Will it? Price currently dropping.
    The price of paper gold is dropping. Take a look at the price and availability of physical gold.

  50. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Aye, I will sleep better tonight.

    Iíve been a long term investor and have done well out of it, part of me feels foolish for jumping and part of me feels foolish for not jumping sooner. However, over the years my decisions have fared well on average so what ever the market brings I wonít have any regrets.

    I just wish this whole mess would go away as itís also affecting some property deals and my business.

    Itís hurting but Iím thankful I can take a bit of pain, I really feel for the many poor people whoís jobs and business will be serverly effected.
    If only for the crystal ball, main thing is your not stressing as your pension deflates, its locked off now..

    Another positive is look for where the best returns will come from once the markets start to stabilise, you may have cashed out but you can now cash in at very low levels..

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