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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    With all due respect, I think "taking a holiday" and just "relaxing" is what NOT to do in this type of crisis. The pros are watching carefully for signs that CV is starting to be controlled, and that the impact on business will be ending. When those signs appear, the market will start moving back up quickly and the prime buying opportunities will vanish in short order.
    With all due respect there is a difference between taking a holiday and switching off.

  2. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    The truth is that absolutely no one really knows the answer to that. This is not not a financial market crash in the true sense, it is a crash due to the uncertainty of globalisation. Can a retailer sell a product in a few months time when a bit of it is made in China, another bit in Mexico and another bit from Korea. No one knows how long it will take for normal business to resume and even if companies can survive in the meantime. The pandemic may last but a few months but the effects in the long term are still guessable.

    To say that the market has clearly bottomed out is a bit blaise. It will undoubtably bounce up and will probably bounce back up with a vengeance once supply chains are re established but the timing is far from certain.
    I don’t think anyone has said “the market has clearly bottomed out”, certainly not me in my post, but I guarantee that some stock prices saw their bottom price or damn close to it already - some not.

    Likewise - Some companies, and markets have intrinsic value that were overly affected by panic selling - but they, the ones that have value in any market, will be fine in the mid to long term.

    While I’m sure others on here have seen more market drops than me over the years, but I’ve seen my fair share and ran share dealing departments in the past - this is nothing new, only the cause.
    It's just a matter of time...

  3. #53
    Unbelievable how in the most challenging of times, when many are thinking about others. Some only look on how to make a fast buck.

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  4. #54
    I will reiterate..do your own research please. Many well-educated people on here but a lack of financial acumen. Do not act on the basis of uninformed opinion.....

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  5. #55
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    I just hope nobody acts on some of the gibberish posted in this thread. The fact that a stock has tanked by 50% cannot be a reason to buy it.

    If you have no experience, talk to someone who does. Don't take advice from uninformed strangers in the internet. This is dangerous.

  6. #56
    I just feel for those whose pensions, or plans for taking tax free sums, or similar withdrawals from any pots, are suffering from the current slump. I have a close friend who has asked to cash in two weeks ago, for an agreed house build, but looks like there have been delays in dealing with the request, which has then seen her pension fall significantly.

    I do feel that mid to long term there is no need to be fearful, or panic.

    I’m not so sure it’s about people trying to make a quick buck while others are suffering. I think it’s more about acting accordingly, if possible, to market conditions.

    Of course the correct thing is to get professional advice - but that does not guarantee that you will go unscathed.

    For the record, I’m not diving head first back into any market any time soon, but I watched others buy in already and make substantial amounts after the first massive drop.
    Last edited by Omegamanic; 15th March 2020 at 09:32.

  7. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I just hope nobody acts on some of the gibberish posted in this thread. The fact that a stock has tanked by 50% cannot be a reason to buy it.

    If you have no experience, talk to someone who does. Don't take advice from uninformed strangers in the internet. This is dangerous.
    Buying equities is, and always as been, a gamble. Even 12 year old kids know that.


    You buy equities at your own risk and you, and you alone, are responsible for any profits or losses made. Even professional advice is in all reality next to worthless. If you cannot trust your own judgement, stick your cash somewhere safe like a bank. Oh and before you come back with some snide retort, even my advice is as worthless as yours.

  8. #58
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    Buying equities is not and was never a gamble. It's a form of investment by participating in the economic risk of the underlying company. It has an inherent higher risk and reward than other forms of investment and may not be for everybody. But it is definitely not gambling.

    As long as people are posting such statements of very limited intellectual value, this thread will serve no other utility than to identify the idiots.

    :banghead:

  9. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Buying equities is not and was never a gamble. It's a form of investment by participating in the economic risk of the underlying company. It has an inherent higher risk and reward than other forms of investment and may not be for everybody. But it is definitely not gambling.

    As long as people are posting such statements of very limited intellectual value, this thread will serve no other utility than to identify the idiots.

    :banghead:
    If you buy a share today, you obviously think it will rise in value. However the market can change and you could slide into a loss. It is no different than backing a horse to win a race. It is a gamble pure and simple.

    If you can identify anyone in this forum whose advice is flawless, please let me know.

  10. #60
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    Some of the most blatant gibberish you ever posted. You don't know what you are talking about, Postman.

  11. #61
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    Ok fair enough, now please allow me to bask in the Spanish sun in the villa that was mainly financed by selling equities.

  12. #62
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    ......
    Last edited by Raffe; 15th March 2020 at 11:40.

  13. #63
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Ok fair enough, now please allow me to bask in the Spanish sun in the villa that was mainly financed by selling equities.
    So you have been an equity salesman? LOLZ.

  14. #64
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    Raffey dear boy, why don't you just slink back to the BP, you fit in well there.

  15. #65
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    Raffey dear boy, why don't you just slink back to the BP, you fit in well there.
    Because contrary to you, I am qualified to contribute to this thread.

  16. #66
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    Novacyt could be interestingNg this week after Trumps announcement !
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  17. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    If you buy a share today, you obviously think it will rise in value. However the market can change and you could slide into a loss. It is no different than backing a horse to win a race. It is a gamble pure and simple.

    If you can identify anyone in this forum whose advice is flawless, please let me know.

    Are you really comparing investing in the stock market to gambling on horses?
    Perhaps you might be right if someone invests in shares in a Nigerian oilfield , that would be akin to gambling on horses where you could lose all your money.

    However you are completely wrong about investing in the stock market. A well diverse fund or tracker will long term always go up. The S &P 500 (index of 500 top American companies) has returned 9.5% annualised over the past 100 years, that’s taking into account The 1929 Great Crash , World War 2, every recession and crisis since then inc credit crunch etc. If the economy grows so does ones index funds/trackers and over the long term they always will- that’s not gambling!

  18. #68
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    Don't waste your time, Mick is a really stable genius, knows everything better than anybody else.

  19. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    Are you really comparing investing in the stock market to gambling on horses?
    Perhaps you might be right if someone invests in shares in a Nigerian oilfield , that would be akin to gambling on horses where you could lose all your money.

    However you are completely wrong about investing in the stock market. A well diverse fund or tracker will long term always go up. The S &P 500 (index of 500 top American companies) has returned 9.5% annualised over the past 100 years, that’s taking into account The 1929 Great Crash , World War 2, every recession and crisis since then inc credit crunch etc. If the economy grows so does ones index funds/trackers and over the long term they always will- that’s not gambling!
    Jonny

    I have a fair amount in equities and I have done very well out of it. Also I have often advocated trackers because they perform well and attract low management fees. So I cannot see why you are slagging me off. Raffe slags everything and everyone off, so no one takes any notice of him.

    This particular discussion is about when stocks rebound and there are some who think we have bottomed out and some, like me, who think it
    will still go lower. It is all opinion based and hence a gamble.

    My best and most lucrative deal was (if my memory is correct) sinking £2k into the FTSE when it dropped to 160 and doubled it within months, but it was an almighty gamble and the then current inflation which was in the mid twenties could have easily wiped out the value of any profits.

  20. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Buying equities is not and was never a gamble. It's a form of investment by participating in the economic risk of the underlying company. It has an inherent higher risk and reward than other forms of investment and may not be for everybody. But it is definitely not gambling.......



    :banghead:
    Sounds like a pretty good definition of gambling to me, actually.
    It's just democracy.

  21. #71
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    Sounds like a pretty good definition of gambling to me, actually.
    So everybody who is running a business is gambling?

  22. #72
    Some people playing the markets are gambling, there is no doubt about that. Most however are not. If it was the same as the horses our pensions wouldn't be in them.

  23. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Some people playing the markets are gambling, there is no doubt about that. Most however are not. If it was the same as the horses our pensions wouldn't be in them.
    To make money , you need to buy at the right price and then sell at the right time.

    The gamble is should you have sold in this last month or should you have bought ?

    Like a fool I just sat and held on so my gamble failed but I have got a pile to pump into the FTSE and expect to make money, that is gamble number 2.

    In the main, you will always make money if you hold on long enough.

  24. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    So everybody who is running a business is gambling?
    I didn’t say that.
    It's just democracy.

  25. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by oldoakknives View Post
    I didn’t say that.
    Buying equities is owning a small part of a business. So either it's not gambling or every business owner is gambling. No middle interpretation possible.

  26. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Buying equities is owning a small part of a business. So either it's not gambling or every business owner is gambling. No middle interpretation possible.
    That is only true if you assume that the only point of owning a business is the market value of its shares.

    Of course that is not the case.

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  27. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluehase284 View Post
    That is only true if you assume that the only point of owning a business is the market value of its shares.

    Of course that is not the case.

    Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk
    In a perfect setting, the value of the shares is the discounted present value of is future profits, so that should level the ground.

    Those who buy Tesla shares at -1,000 times next year's earnings should see a doctor anyway.

  28. #78
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Buying equities is owning a small part of a business. So either it's not gambling or every business owner is gambling. No middle interpretation possible.
    Ha ha ha ha! Nice twist.
    It's just democracy.

  29. #79
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    Did I start all this?

  30. #80
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    Yes you did PC and frankly at your age received wisdom is that only a smallish fraction of your wealth should still even be in the markets

  31. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Yes you did PC and frankly at your age received wisdom is that only a smallish fraction of your wealth should still even be in the markets
    I was completely out of the equity markets on Feb 25. Now it's wait and see...

  32. #82
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mick P View Post
    To make money , you need to buy at the right price and then sell at the right time.

    The gamble is should you have sold in this last month or should you have bought ?

    Like a fool I just sat and held on so my gamble failed but I have got a pile to pump into the FTSE and expect to make money, that is gamble number 2.

    In the main, you will always make money if you hold on long enough.
    What do you reckon? Wait until the FTSE is in the 3000s?

  33. #83
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I was completely out of the equity markets on Feb 25. Now it's wait and see...
    Indeed PC wise move I recall congratulating you.

  34. #84
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    The US have just cut interest rates to 0% to ease the economy, sorry but this tells me they are up s**t creek without a paddle hitting 0%, be interesting to see how the markets open up tomorrow and where they go throughout the day, especially as the weekends news hasn't been encouraging..

  35. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    The US have just cut interest rates to 0% to ease the economy, sorry but this tells me they are up s**t creek without a paddle hitting 0%, be interesting to see how the markets open up tomorrow and where they go throughout the day, especially as the weekends news hasn't been encouraging..
    I just read that the Dow futures (for Monday) are -1,000 after the interest rate cut to 0% because the 'market' doesn't believe it's enough.

  36. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I just read that the Dow futures (for Monday) are -1,000 after the interest rate cut to 0% because the 'market' doesn't believe it's enough.
    They hit 'limit down' yesterday.

  37. #87
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    Novacyt looks healthy once again
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    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  38. #88
    FTSE down nearly 7% today and below 5,000 and that’s after all the central banks have now unloaded all their big guns.

    35% off the peak. Catch a falling knife.

  39. #89
    Catch a falling axe! FTSE below 5k is going to have nearly everyone running scared now. I think the bounce back talk will get very quiet.

  40. #90
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    It’s now dipped below the point it was at in 2010. That’s 10 year of growth wiped off in 2 weeks. Frightening.

    Well done to those who sold up in February.

    Like so many others, I’ve been painfully watching my pension and savings value plummet over the last 2 weeks, unable to do anything about it with any level of confidence.

    Luckily, with around 20 years until I’ll draw on the pension, by then it’ll just be another blip, but what a difference we all could have made if we’d acted to sell up at the 1st signs of trouble.

  41. #91
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    it looks like it's going to be a "tough" day for many

    the money I put in last week now looks "sick" ............. but unless you have got out of the market completely you will have just watched your share portfolio fall by 30% in the last couple of weeks.

    will the FTSE indices half in value?

  42. #92
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    I just read that the Dow futures (for Monday) are -1,000 after the interest rate cut to 0% because the 'market' doesn't believe it's enough.
    Futures are still limit down, but the ETF trades down 9%.

  43. #93
    I have 15 years of a share match scheme built up in my company, and have not sold any given 7% dividends versus 1.5% in a savings account.

    Having compounded over 15 years, the shares where worth well over 6 figures two weeks ago. Now, less than half of that.

    Ho hum. It’s only money.

    On the positive side I’m grateful to be mortgage free and have a significant final salary pension.

  44. #94
    Don’t forget, this is just the START. Mass layoffs to follow. Debts will be defaulted on. House prices will tank.

    If you think it is scary now. Wait a couple of months.

    The deeper you think about it, the more it feels like some sort of apocalypse. And the vaccine is still 18 months away.

  45. #95
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    I just watched Rolls Royce shares go from -27% to -17% in a few minutes, money to be made if your willing...

  46. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I just watched Rolls Royce shares go from -27% to -17% in a few minutes, money to be made if your willing...
    Did you buy when they were -27%?

    More likely last week, when they were still 50% higher than now (after the move from -27% to -15%).

  47. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Did you buy when they were -27%?

    More likely last week, when they were still 50% higher than now (after the move from -27% to -15%).
    No I haven't, I want too but being so unstable you dont know what the next hour is going to bring let alone the mid-long term, although I suspect if buying for the long term most big companies like RR will recover fine, what I was saying is that if your willing (and more knowledgeable than me) then there is money to be made in this market which is what the thread is all about..

  48. #98
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    No I haven't, I want too but being so unstable you dont know what the next hour is going to bring let alone the mid-long term, although I suspect if buying for the long term most big companies like RR will recover fine, what I was saying is that if your willing (and more knowledgeable than me) then there is money to be made in this market which is what the thread is all about..
    I am not sure if and how RR will recover, but I suppose many of their clients will go bankrupt.

    I am not looking at buying any equities any time soon. I am afraid we will see a lot worse before the market recovers. And I mean a lot.

  49. #99
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I am not sure if and how RR will recover, but I suppose many of their clients will go bankrupt.

    I am not looking at buying any equities any time soon. I am afraid we will see a lot worse before the market recovers. And I mean a lot.
    RR mainly build military based products but have recently started to move into commercial aircraft engine repair, so yes some of their clients could well go bust..

    I do agree this could get a lot worse, small rises will make money very short term as in daily trading but over the coming months those rises will be ate up by falling markets, be interesting to see what the DOW does when it opens..

  50. #100

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Wrong thread

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