Reply With QuoteNASDAQ down 4.2% - ouch, painful..
Gold dipped today as asset managers executed on margin calls. Good opportunity to get in as it'll be 50% up by June.
NASDAQ down 4.2% - ouch, painful..
If you're selling today...Originally Posted by vulcangascompany
What hasn't been painful is its 30 month bull run.
You sure about that?
Of course not.
Sure but even with today's sell off the S&P 500 has a valuation of 25 P/E and the CAPE is 33. Based on the current sh*tshow I can't see earnings moving forward that justify those numbers so at an index level there's plenty more dropping to do unless Trump is correct and this was indeed a masterstroke that makes the American economy great again. I suspect that won't be the case and we'll see that when US companies start announcing earnings in the months to come.
Of course as a set and forget with regular monthly investing people will be fine as you're guaranteed to buy at the bottom that way but I'd not be rushing to get back in with a load of cash vs just sticking it in a UK Gilt and getting 4.5% or whatever on it.
You could always put it in as cash and drip feed it in to the market over the next few months? Pound cost average it.
This will be my strategy moving forward (I'm going to transfer all my rental income in every month) but for this current tax year I left it until the last minute so had to go all in.
Presumably you could have put the 5 figure contribution into a cash fund in the pension, then moved it over to funds for long term investment on a monthly basis. That may well have been what Devonian was implying?
Ah ok. Well it's done now and it's already dropped by £200 or so.
It's a common mistake (but human nature) to try to apply logic to market forces, it leads everyone to be constantly suprised by what's actually happening.
Last edited by uwtc; 4th April 2025 at 09:30.
Worth a watch: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3PxqwZcTpc0
Very true - what's that quote again, something like 'the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent' or something like that!
That's an excellent video, thanks for sharing.
Could be a circuit breaker day today for the S&P500.
Hope Americans are feeling 'liberated'.
Italian stock market is down over 8% today!!!
Yes that’s what I meant. Put it all in the pension for the tax benefits, but have it in cash and drip feed it in to the funds over a period of time to reduce volatility, if that’s a concern, which I guess right now for people it is.
Though the old saying of ‘it’s all about time, not timing’ is probably what most people do.
Can you not switch to a cash fund within the pension and then switch back over to equity funds as and when you think appropriate?
Just checked Vanguard, and there's an advisory message saying that the value of my investments can go up as well as down ...
LOL´d.
Shack is one of the best channels on this topic imo.
I did this during Covid and it remained in cash too long and I lost out when the stocks rebounded. Sold low and didn't reinvest when they were still low. I'm no FA but I wouldn't advise swapping anything over to cash atm (unless you did it before the downturn).
Rightly or wrongly I've just transferred £24k today into my SIPP to try and take advantage of the downturn and the lower prices. Appreciate it likely has further to drop, but trying to second guess the markets is difficult and ultimately it's all a gamble. ATM happy with my investment as any SIPP contributions are saving 45% tax so in my mind that's how far they can drop before I see a (potential) negative return.
What some investors do is look at the VIX index. When it's above 20 sh*t is hitting the fan and below 20 is more calm. It's currently at 47 which indicates that the market expects a lot more turmoil.
You do you but I've left the half of my portfolio that's still in equities to continue to get bummed (as it'll go back up at some time) and the other half (well more than half as the equities half has been ravaged) is in gold and UK Gilts. Once the VIX is below 20 and I can see some stability I'll take that Gilt and gold money and buy mostly global indexes but also any individual firms that are clearly undervalued by traditional P/E measures. I'll no doubt miss the bottom by waiting for calm but I feel it's too early to get back in now as the fundamentals aren't there in the market for calm to return.
Been following James Shack for a while now. Offers some very good, sound advice and this video in particular is very informative. I started watching his videos when I was interested in drawdown efficiency but all of his advice seems logical and thought out.
Sounds like some solid plans albeit following different reasoning, strategies.
I'm reminded of what Iron Mike said ''everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face''.
Best of luck to us all.and how did I forget, hang tough it won't be easy...
Last edited by Passenger; 8th April 2025 at 07:31.
I've just topped up my SIPP putting the funds into VWRP which is US dominated ... lets hope for some bounce when Trump randomly switches tactics ...
My money is on him changing tactics at least 3 times this week.....
My money is on him changing tactics at least 3 times this week.....
Only 3?
He's got a busy golf week ahead.
Would be funny if it wasn't so true!!!!My money is on him changing tactics at least 3 times this week.....
One thing I will say about Trump is that he is so thick skinned (or perhaps just thick) that he doesn't think twice about reversing a decision and pretending it never happened, or it was all part of a master plan. So I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a softening or even a removal of some of the harsher tariffs. Markets will hopefully react accordingly. Fingers crossed.
I'm not sure. My sources are telling me that Xi has neither said thank you once, nor is he wearing a suit.
Things going to go very badly.
BTFD.
It's got another 15%+ to go down yet, unless you mean buy the dip in gold in which case yes.
Never heard you so bearish.
That's me being optimistic!
My Aegon Pension fund was down nearly 10% at one point after this week. I have 14 years before I start withdrawing so I'm sure it will recover and grow again but still a downer when it had continuously gone up year after year.
Just watched another of Trump speeches, I’m not convinced he understands who actually pays the tariffs.
DOW up 2,700 points 40 minutes before market close.
Tariffs paused 10% instant gain. The markets are telling him what his tariffs tactics are …
Well I predicted it would happen but even I'm surprised at how quick the U turn came.
… apart from China, but that’s going to have to get resolved somehow…
It'll plummet again. Tariffs are still at 10%, no foreign entities are buying US treasuries so interest rates likely to remain high. But if you have a long horizon buying yesterday was as good as any other day as you've now got a decent cushion and you can expect Asian and Euro stonks to go up tmw as well.
Trump and his cronies making out like bandits, i'm sure.
Indeed they are. The NYT famously told its readers way back in the 19th century that "among the countless blessings of war is its power of teaching geography". I rather think that here in the 21st century, the power of the tariff war is in teaching politicians basic economics.
Used the pump to disburse half of the equity holdings I had left so my remaining equities are around 20% of my portfolio. Parked that cash into a 2% Gilt that expires in September and we'll see where we are then.
Current stock market is too much like a casino at present for me to go back in and fundamentally the whole world now has 10% tariffs with China at 104%, we still have threats of Canada and Greenland being annexed and that's without any other madness happened so I don't see that we've hit any kind of bottom yet but I hope im wrong.
There must be some insider stuff going on with all these crazy announcements ... but looks like he didn't cut his mate Bill Ackman in on the deal ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2lzjnj79rdo
I've never known anyone to trade their pension so actively as you Ryan; good luck.
US futures down, oil down and gold pumping which isn't usually a bullish sign however a positive CPI report may reverse that in the short term. In the medium term tariffs will push inflation higher.
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status...20891637186965
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