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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #801
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    I’m seeing a lot of very worried clients.
    Worried about their portfolios or their jobs/businesses?

  2. #802
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    is anyone buying?

  3. #803
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    is anyone buying?
    I am selling, reinstating my short position which was stopped out at a lower level after the jobless figures.

  4. #804
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Nope, it has not yet re-opened. Still closed, all those numbers were without trades.
    Anyone understand how the auctions on the SBF work? I have just looked at the times&sales data of Novocyt and am confused at best. Did it trade during the afternoon or not? It was certainly blocked for order entry on my trading station, not sure if those prints actually represent trades or not? The last price shown is now EUR 4.10, but who knows what really happened?

    Also checked on the SBF website and it just doesn't make sense with an order book where all bids are higher than offers?

    https://live.euronext.com/en/product...010397232-ALXP

  5. #805
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Worried about their portfolios or their jobs/businesses?
    Surprisingly not as worried about their portfolios as I’d have thought. A couple of clients are seriously concerned but most have taken the attitude that this is out of their hands. It’s more my business clients and our firms mortgage clients. Some of them have got very successful companies but they are seeing this situation implode overnight. Concerned that they will even have a business in months to come. We have 6 mortgage advisers and almost everything is now on hold. Loads of calls from buyers either pulling out, talking about pulling out or wanting to drop their offers. Lenders pulling most of their deals, especially over 75% LTV’s. They don’t want the risk. I’ve a commercial specialist who worked for NatWest for 30 years and knows it inside out and it’s basically all just stopped. All the deals he was arranging but not finalised are now either on hold, or the lenders are reviewing them. Surveyors have shut up shop so the housing market will be at a complete standstill shortly. Porting products or automated valuations are about the only way forward for now.

    Things will be kick started again, but at a lower level. Will everything be 10% or 20% lower/cheaper in a few months? Who knows. What I do know is that that’s what people are wondering today. If you had bought a house for say 250k a month ago, with say 50k deposit, you may well have no equity in a couple of months. Might not be as bad as that, but that’s what clients are asking. My guess is there will he stamp duty breaks among other incentives to correct this.

  6. #806
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Surprisingly not as worried about their portfolios as I’d have thought. A couple of clients are seriously concerned but most have taken the attitude that this is out of their hands. It’s more my business clients and our firms mortgage clients. Some of them have got very successful companies but they are seeing this situation implode overnight. Concerned that they will even have a business in months to come. We have 6 mortgage advisers and almost everything is now on hold. Loads of calls from buyers either pulling out, talking about pulling out or wanting to drop their offers. Lenders pulling most of their deals, especially over 75% LTV’s. They don’t want the risk. I’ve a commercial specialist who worked for NatWest for 30 years and knows it inside out and it’s basically all just stopped. All the deals he was arranging but not finalised are now either on hold, or the lenders are reviewing them. Surveyors have shut up shop so the housing market will be at a complete standstill shortly. Porting products or automated valuations are about the only way forward for now.

    Things will be kick started again, but at a lower level. Will everything be 10% or 20% lower/cheaper in a few months? Who knows. What I do know is that that’s what people are wondering today. If you had bought a house for say 250k a month ago, with say 50k deposit, you may well have no equity in a couple of months. Might not be as bad as that, but that’s what clients are asking. My guess is there will he stamp duty breaks among other incentives to correct this.
    All quite disturbing to read considering we were a couple of days away from a simultaneous exchange/complete as lockdown was announced and the buyer put the process on hold.

    If you take your direct experience and multiply it up to a national level you get a big issue in my opinion.

    Yet the markets continue to climb.

  7. #807
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    is anyone buying?
    I'm planning on drip-feeding 1667/mo into a S&P 500 index tracker w/ Vanguard. When there's blood running in the streets...

  8. #808
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holsterman View Post
    I'm planning on drip-feeding 1667/mo into a S&P 500 index tracker w/ Vanguard. When there's blood running in the streets...
    It’s only a trickle compared to what some believe is coming

  9. #809
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    All quite disturbing to read considering we were a couple of days away from a simultaneous exchange/complete as lockdown was announced and the buyer put the process on hold.

    If you take your direct experience and multiply it up to a national level you get a big issue in my opinion.

    Yet the markets continue to climb.
    Were you buying a more expensive property? If so you may look back in hindsight and realise you’ve saved a lot of money. Again who knows? What I do know is that in 2008 property peaked and come 2009/10 people could buy property cheaper, quite a bit in some areas. Lending had tightened up and property fell. This will be far worse. I hate to say it but it will be. The fact that lenders have tightened up on higher loan to value mortgages (and stopped completely in some cases) is because they are scared of the unknown. Maybe when we come out of isolation we’ll see a clearer picture within a couple of weeks. Problem is, when will that be?

    Yes markets continue to climb higher - my work life would be so much easier if that continues. Either the fall was so overdone things are recovering to a more sensible level of the true value of the economy, or this is a false dawn with far worse to come. Which one is it? I guess in the old days they would call that the million dollar question. Now it’s the trillion dollar question.

  10. #810
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    Quote Originally Posted by Holsterman View Post
    I'm planning on drip-feeding 1667/mo into a S&P 500 index tracker w/ Vanguard. When there's blood running in the streets...
    Smart.

  11. #811
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    is anyone buying?
    I have been buying and selling a few shares, I’m not making big money but I’m doing okay, I made £900 this week and £760 the 2 weeks before, sometimes I’m in and out of a share within a few hours.

    I’m offsetting this with helping out several old people in my area, makes me feel better anyway about making money in this period..

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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Were you buying a more expensive property? If so you may look back in hindsight and realise you’ve saved a lot of money. Again who knows? What I do know is that in 2008 property peaked and come 2009/10 people could buy property cheaper, quite a bit in some areas. Lending had tightened up and property fell. This will be far worse. I hate to say it but it will be. The fact that lenders have tightened up on higher loan to value mortgages (and stopped completely in some cases) is because they are scared of the unknown. Maybe when we come out of isolation we’ll see a clearer picture within a couple of weeks. Problem is, when will that be?

    Yes markets continue to climb higher - my work life would be so much easier if that continues. Either the fall was so overdone things are recovering to a more sensible level of the true value of the economy, or this is a false dawn with far worse to come. Which one is it? I guess in the old days they would call that the million dollar question. Now it’s the trillion dollar question.
    No. We were/are selling my father in laws house to cover his care fees. If we have to accept less it’s a major issue.

  13. #813
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    I’ve a commercial specialist who worked for NatWest for 30 years and knows it inside out and it’s basically all just stopped. All the deals he was arranging but not finalised are now either on hold, or the lenders are reviewing them
    Commercial values are falling, except for food-stores and long (20+) term indexed income against high grade covenants from other sectors which are seen as safe havens. Some High St Retail is bottomless. Tough job for asset allocators investing pension fund money into predominantly equities and real estate....

  14. #814
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I have been buying and selling a few shares, I’m not making big money but I’m doing okay, I made £900 this week and £760 the 2 weeks before, sometimes I’m in and out of a share within a few hours.

    I’m offsetting this with helping out several old people in my area, makes me feel better anyway about making money in this period..
    Are you actually buying shares or are you spread betting through a company like London Capital Group? Just interested because I dabbled with crypto when it was popular a couple of years ago but wouldn’t really know the best way to day trade shares or markets.

  15. #815
    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    It’s only a trickle compared to what some believe is coming
    I know, that's why I'm sort-of "averaging down" by dripping it into an ISA month by month. I'm also taking a longer-term view, 5-10 years minimum.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Smart.
    I hope so, fingers crossed.

  16. #816
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    Quote Originally Posted by Christian View Post
    Are you actually buying shares or are you spread betting through a company like London Capital Group? Just interested because I dabbled with crypto when it was popular a couple of years ago but wouldn’t really know the best way to day trade shares or markets.
    Just buy a share when you feel is the right time and sell when your happy with the return, you rarely buy at the bottom and sell at the top but you have to be happy with profit you get.

    Today I bought a share and I watched it go up/down for a few hours but was happy with £265 profit, once I sold I watched it inch up over the next 2 hours which would have gave me £565 profit - oh well! Same on Tuesday, I made £635 but watched it drop after I sold to then go on a run that would have gave me an extra £700!!

    I’m just a casual investor looking to make a bit of money while my current earnings have been shelved, I do enjoy it though so I need to take a deeper look into trading and educate myself a bit..

  17. #817
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    Which trading platform do you all use ?

    Any recommendation on platform for buy and hold commodities or shares (long term)?

    Locked and need to keep myself a bit busy so thought let me ask the trading gurus here 👍 .

  18. #818
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    For all those looking for a recovery in financial markets: read this.

  19. #819
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Just buy a share when you feel is the right time and sell when your happy with the return, you rarely buy at the bottom and sell at the top but you have to be happy with profit you get.

    Today I bought a share and I watched it go up/down for a few hours but was happy with £265 profit, once I sold I watched it inch up over the next 2 hours which would have gave me £565 profit - oh well! Same on Tuesday, I made £635 but watched it drop after I sold to then go on a run that would have gave me an extra £700!!

    I’m just a casual investor looking to make a bit of money while my current earnings have been shelved, I do enjoy it though so I need to take a deeper look into trading and educate myself a bit..
    How much of investment do you have to put in to make these kind of returns?

  20. #820
    Quote Originally Posted by sprite1275 View Post
    How much of investment do you have to put in to make these kind of returns?
    It takes a hell of a lot of time

  21. #821
    Last post was in jest ....
    but forget the monetary aspect as it’s pure gambling I’m pretty sure most will give it back plus more 😂
    Is it 90% or something loose money day trading ?

  22. #822
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    Quote Originally Posted by sprite1275 View Post
    How much of investment do you have to put in to make these kind of returns?
    I have been using £8k, I’m only investing in one share as I’m not watching multiple stocks, it’s currently way below its pre CV value, so it fluctuates up and down a lot, also it’s a FTSE 100 share so if I get caught out I’ll just hang in until they comeback..

    I say this but please do your own homework before investing, it’s worked for me so far but that’s not to say it’s for you..

  23. #823
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I have been using £8k, I’m only investing in one share as I’m not watching multiple stocks, it’s currently way below its pre CV value, so it fluctuates up and down a lot, also it’s a FTSE 100 share so if I get caught out I’ll just hang in until they comeback..

    I say this but please do your own homework before investing, it’s worked for me so far but that’s not to say it’s for you..
    That is a very dangerous strategy, one which sets you up for an almost-guaranteed series of small profits followed by a catastrophic loss. Just saying.

  24. #824
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    Last post was in jest ....
    but forget the monetary aspect as it’s pure gambling I’m pretty sure most will give it back plus more 😂
    Is it 90% or something loose money day trading ?
    I don’t agree with the gambling quote given to share dealing, it is if you just pick any share and drop money on it but most people do some homework, understand the sector of business.

    I’m familiar with the business I have invested in and I’m confident of making profit each time I trade, yes the shares might drop, but they come back and I sell at a level I’m happy with, often way below their max day price but you have to accept you will not get the biggest profit..

  25. #825
    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I don’t agree with the gambling quote given to share dealing, it is if you just pick any share and drop money on it but most people do some homework, understand the sector of business.

    I’m familiar with the business I have invested in and I’m confident of making profit each time I trade, yes the shares might drop, but they come back and I sell at a level I’m happy with, often way below their max day price but you have to accept you will not get the biggest profit..
    Familiar with the industry/business or not without clear buy /sell signals
    knowing when it’s turning or about to and without a clear exit strategy you will loose eventually
    In my eyes it’s gambling I’m sure raffe would agree

  26. #826
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That is a very dangerous strategy, one which sets you up for an almost-guaranteed series of small profits followed by a catastrophic loss. Just saying.
    Exactly, it’s why I’m careful of what I’m saying so others here don’t think it’s all winning, or worse invest on the back of what I have said.

    So far it’s worked for me, if the shares dived then I could afford to just hang on until they come back..

  27. #827
    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Exactly, it’s why I’m careful of what I’m saying so others here don’t think it’s all winning, or worse invest on the back of what I have said.

    So far it’s worked for me, if the shares dived then I could afford to just hang on until they come back..
    Interested what stock it is if you want to share?

  28. #828
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That is a very dangerous strategy, one which sets you up for an almost-guaranteed series of small profits followed by a catastrophic loss. Just saying.
    Genuinely interested in your reasoning if you are willing to expand a little, as I recognise you're knowledgeable in this area. Buying a share at a price well below its pre Corona virus price seems a reasonable bet, especially if it has a strong balance sheet and customer base.

    Sent from my HD1903 using Tapatalk

  29. #829
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I have been using £8k, I’m only investing in one share as I’m not watching multiple stocks, it’s currently way below its pre CV value, so it fluctuates up and down a lot, also it’s a FTSE 100 share so if I get caught out I’ll just hang in until they comeback..

    I say this but please do your own homework before investing, it’s worked for me so far but that’s not to say it’s for you..
    Quote Originally Posted by speedypro1111 View Post
    Last post was in jest ....
    but forget the monetary aspect as it’s pure gambling I’m pretty sure most will give it back plus more 
    Is it 90% or something loose money day trading ?
    I wouldnt have a scooby of where to start. Speedy your returns sound amazing seems i wouldnt earn that in a working week. Ive been left a little sum which i dont know whether to use and put a little dent in the mortgage or try to earn a little money off it.

  30. #830
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    Quote Originally Posted by sprite1275 View Post
    I wouldnt have a scooby of where to start. Speedy your returns sound amazing seems i wouldnt earn that in a working week. Ive been left a little sum which i dont know whether to use and put a little dent in the mortgage or try to earn a little money off it.
    Seriously, play safe and put it towards your mortgage or just keep it in the bank. I don’t doubt that some of the posters here are making more than they’ve losing. A few more are reporting their losses. I suspect there are many more who have seen significant losses, but aren’t going to declare them here. If you don’t know what you’re doing best learn from using other people’s money, but keep your own powder dry.

  31. #831
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    Quote Originally Posted by seabiscuit View Post
    Seriously, play safe and put it towards your mortgage or just keep it in the bank. I don’t doubt that some of the posters here are making more than they’ve losing. A few more are reporting their losses. I suspect there are many more who have seen significant losses, but aren’t going to declare them here. If you don’t know what you’re doing best learn from using other people’s money, but keep your own powder dry.
    Well, so far my bet on airline stocks is negative...but it's early.

  32. #832
    Quote Originally Posted by sprite1275 View Post
    I wouldnt have a scooby of where to start. Speedy your returns sound amazing seems i wouldnt earn that in a working week. Ive been left a little sum which i dont know whether to use and put a little dent in the mortgage or try to earn a little money off it.
    If I were you, pay down the mortgage.

  33. #833
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    Quote Originally Posted by sprite1275 View Post
    I wouldnt have a scooby of where to start.
    You are guaranteed to lose, without question. Pay the mortgage, be happy.

  34. #834
    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    You are guaranteed to lose, without question. Pay the mortgage, be happy.
    ^ My advice, listen to this, 100%!

  35. #835
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    Quote Originally Posted by deepreddave View Post
    Genuinely interested in your reasoning if you are willing to expand a little, as I recognise you're knowledgeable in this area. Buying a share at a price well below its pre Corona virus price seems a reasonable bet, especially if it has a strong balance sheet and customer base.

    Sent from my HD1903 using Tapatalk
    It's very simple: if you are taking small profits but refuse to sell a position at an equally small loss, it is only a question of short time until you are stuck with only losers in your portfolio. While some may really recover to the price where you bought them, they will still block your capital and you cannot use it to trade other ideas in the meantime. And it's only a question of time until you are stuck with a position which will never recover to the price where you bought it, FTSE100 or not.

    The only way to earn money is to limit your losses: if in doubt, sell. Ask yourself if you would still buy the stock today, if the answer is no sell it immediately - no matter whether you are up or down on the trade. Cut out the emotions, it doesn't matter if you have a profit or loss - if you think the stock is lower tomorrow than today you should sell it. Let profits run, cut the losses. If you think your capital would produce a higher return elsewhere, sell your position and buy that other opportunity (again, no matter if in loss or profit).

    If you don't have that discipline, you should never trade as you will just lose all your money.

  36. #836
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    Quote Originally Posted by deepreddave View Post
    Buying a share at a price well below its pre Corona virus price seems a reasonable bet, especially if it has a strong balance sheet and customer base.

    Sent from my HD1903 using Tapatalk
    With the greatest respect, it's not as simple as that.

    With the exception of a handful of businesses - off the top of my head, Supermarkets, Amazon, specialist couriers and medical supplies companies, most businesse's customer bases and traditional business models have been decimated.
    We are all living in a totally new environment now, one we've never experienced before in modern day.
    A businesse's share price pre COVID 19 is now totally irrelevant to what it is today.

    It's impossible to calculate the future income, costs and business environment of a given company, (How can you calculate the P, if you don't know the E?), so therefore making a judgement on a share price on a day-to day basis at the moment is literally gambling.
    There may be day to day sector specific factors that may positively effect a specific share price (OPEC agreement on reduction on oil production may be a positive for firms such as BP/SHELL tomorrow), on the other hand, Trumps had a major role in brokering that deal, so I'd be a little sceptical on that agreement sticking.

    Overall though, markets are so volatile, I would agree with a previous poster, if you have any spare cash, either sit on it until future visibility is clearer or pay off your mortgage if you have on.
    Last edited by klunk; 11th April 2020 at 08:45.

  37. #837
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    For all those looking for a recovery in financial markets: read this.
    Thanks for the link Raffe, yup.

  38. #838
    Well that's my retirement fubarred, 55, in 2 months, pension pot decimated, im no longer calculating losses in £ but instead in months or years extra I've gotta work. Reckon another 4 or 5 years. Not moaning, people far worse off, but still, it hurts.

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  39. #839
    For anyone tempted to start day trading, please watch this first.


  40. #840
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It's very simple:....
    Thanks for responding. I don't disagree with anything you say but I do think there are a solid group of well established businesses that will survive and recover in the short to medium term.

    In reality the majority of my share exposure is in managed funds so I'll stick with those having taken the initial hit a few weeks back. I have contemplated cashing out in the short term but history suggests doing so more often leads to missing out on the recovery when it happens.



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  41. #841
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    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    With the greatest respect, it's not as simple as that.

    With the exception of a handful of businesses - off the top of my head, Supermarkets, Amazon, specialist couriers and medical supplies companies, most businesse's customer bases and traditional business models have been decimated.
    We are all living in a totally new environment now, one we've never experienced before in modern day.
    A businesse's share price pre COVID 19 is now totally irrelevant to what it is today.

    It's impossible to calculate the future income, costs and business environment of a given company, (How can you calculate the P, if you don't know the E?), so therefore making a judgement on a share price on a day-to day basis at the moment is literally gambling.
    There may be day to day sector specific factors that may positively effect a specific share price (OPEC agreement on reduction on oil production may be a positive for firms such as BP/SHELL tomorrow), on the other hand, Trumps had a major role in brokering that deal, so I'd be a little sceptical on that agreement sticking.

    Overall though, markets are so volatile, I would agree with a previous poster, if you have any spare cash, either sit on it until future visibility is clearer or pay off your mortgage if you have on.
    Yep.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  42. #842
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    Quote Originally Posted by deepreddave View Post
    Thanks for responding. I don't disagree with anything you say but I do think there are a solid group of well established businesses that will survive and recover in the short to medium term.

    In reality the majority of my share exposure is in managed funds so I'll stick with those having taken the initial hit a few weeks back. I have contemplated cashing out in the short term but history suggests doing so more often leads to missing out on the recovery when it happens.



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    I don't understand why people are focused on the share price recovery. In my humble opinion that will not happen anytime soon, if ever. Everything changed and if there are 15% unemployed you cannot expect any private consumption to help companies. Who should buy all those iPhones if people are bankrupt?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  43. #843
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I don't understand why people are focused on the share price recovery. In my humble opinion that will not happen anytime soon, if ever. Everything changed and if there are 15% unemployed you cannot expect any private consumption to help companies. Who should buy all those iPhones if people are bankrupt?

    The Fed ....?
    Lol

  44. #844
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I don't understand why people are focused on the share price recovery. In my humble opinion that will not happen anytime soon, if ever. Everything changed and if there are 15% unemployed you cannot expect any private consumption to help companies. Who should buy all those iPhones if people are bankrupt?
    I guess because for those of us who are not professional traders the historic value seems a strong indicator of likely future value, especially for long established businesses with strong brand support who will inevitably be in demand. There's going to be pain during the recovery period but I'm quietly confident the recovery will be reasonably quick for the majority here in the UK when the economy is slowly turned back on.

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  45. #845
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    For all those looking for a recovery in financial markets: read this.
    Can’t disagree with the sentiment in that item, which still leaves me confused about the recent optimism in the markets.

    It’s as if so many people desire a V shaped recovery they are forcing it buy buying without seeing the future landscape painted in that gloomy article.
    Last edited by Montello; 11th April 2020 at 09:29.

  46. #846
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Can’t disagree with the sentiment in that item, which still leaves me confused about the recent optimism in the markets.

    It’s as so many people desire a V shaped recovery they are forcing it buy buying without seeing the future landscape painted in that gloomy article.
    Plays into the old question 'Are markets efficient or irrational?', for my money they can be both at times.

  47. #847
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    These are not normal markets, but there are bargains to be had if you have the right timeframe. That said, folk getting excited over 25% increases often need to have picked a bottom for that stock, everyone else is seeing a small % decrease in their losses from when they held it prior to a 70% fall.

    I don’t spreadbet anymore, need to be able to watch the moves and I don’t have time, day trading is pretty much the same. 85% of retail investors lose, it’s pretty much like playing a fruit machine in a pub!


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  48. #848
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Can’t disagree with the sentiment in that item, which still leaves me confused about the recent optimism in the markets.

    It’s as if so many people desire a V shaped recovery they are forcing it buy buying without seeing the future landscape painted in that gloomy article.
    Bear market bounce - I don't have time to check the charts, but if my memory serves me correctly, we had similar oscillations during the last financial crash 07/08.
    The initial large falls were followed by a number of bullish rises in the markets, but the real low point in the markets (the real pain) wasn't until 12 months or so later.
    Again don't anybody take me to task on my recollection of the exact timing of this, but I think the general gist of what I'm writing is correct.
    The current problem is that optimists are assuming (hopefully they are correct) that we have the peak in COVID-19 cases in sight now and we may get back to relative normality in a couple of months or by the end of the summer at the latest.
    What if the virus re-appears in the general population and we have to lockdown again?

  49. #849
    I used to regret paying fees to both the fund and my pension adviser, now I will throw money at them to sort it all out, how times change

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  50. #850
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I sold some index futures on Thursday, I think we will see a lot lower in the next weeks. A lot.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

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