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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #8201

  2. #8202
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Meet AMDT Digital, Inc., trading symbol HKD

    They went public at $7.80 two weeks ago. Today, the stock hit $2,555.30.

    I have no idea what the company is going, in fact there are multiple versions of that doing their rounds. They are apparently trading at about 25,000 time this year's revenue; and their market cap surpassed Facebook today.



    Happy trading.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  3. #8203

  4. #8204
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Meet AMDT Digital, Inc., trading symbol HKD

    They went public at $7.80 two weeks ago. Today, the stock hit $2,555.30.

    I have no idea what the company is going, in fact there are multiple versions of that doing their rounds. They are apparently trading at about 25,000 time this year's revenue; and their market cap surpassed Facebook today.



    Happy trading.
    I'm curious if you have any thoughts on the technicalities of how this occurred, particularly given what appear to be thin and reducing volumes. Seems obvious some shady stuff is going on, but I'm struggling to understand the mechanism behind the manipulation, though concede I might be naive!

  5. #8205
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Meet AMDT Digital, Inc., trading symbol HKD

    They went public at $7.80 two weeks ago. Today, the stock hit $2,555.30.

    I have no idea what the company is going, in fact there are multiple versions of that doing their rounds. They are apparently trading at about 25,000 time this year's revenue; and their market cap surpassed Facebook today.



    Happy trading.

    How many times rafflepuffs?


  6. #8206
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Meet AMDT Digital, Inc., trading symbol HKD

    They went public at $7.80 two weeks ago. Today, the stock hit $2,555.30.

    I have no idea what the company is going, in fact there are multiple versions of that doing their rounds. They are apparently trading at about 25,000 time this year's revenue; and their market cap surpassed Facebook today.



    Happy trading.
    Down to $200 again, still a screaming short if there was any borrow available...


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  7. #8207
    If a recession is looming, is the FTSE currently trading at this level because of markets pricing inflation in or are we just seeing a rally before it drops, or do I have my understanding of what drives the FTSE completely wrong.

  8. #8208
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce View Post
    If a recession is looming, is the FTSE currently trading at this level because of markets pricing inflation in or are we just seeing a rally before it drops, or do I have my understanding of what drives the FTSE completely wrong.
    Some factors;

    UK GDP expected to contract 1% in Q4 and then average 0.1% growth in 2023 so a mild recession and then weak growth

    Inflation will persist at 6.4% throughout 2023 (average) which makes the UK unique among G20 countries (except Canada) as all other G20 countries will have inflation at 2.5% or below next year

    This is because the projections are the £GBP will devalue some 10% or more against the $USD next year

    Because these FTSE companies often have the bulk of their revenues from overseas, in £GBP terms these end up being higher due to the lower value of the £ and these companies reporting in £

    Just some possible reasons, source is https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/forecast

    But basically at a global level the projections of a deep global recession are overblown according to projections which are of course just projections at this stage.
    Last edited by ryanb741; 19th August 2022 at 16:48.

  9. #8209
    Thanks for helping my understanding of the £ reporting.

    Iím using a tracker from L&G so trying to get my head around its potential decrease over the next few months 

  10. #8210
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I should have sold at the top.


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  11. #8211
    I sold it all at £1.67, hoping it decreases to £1.53/£1.57 again and buy it back in. 👍

  12. #8212
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    Well done Raffe, £50 donated.

    May have lost the battle, but hopefully will win the AMC MOASS!

    Happy New Year to you all!
    Surely any day now?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  13. #8213
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Surely any day now?
    Strange times!

  14. #8214
    I understand that the stock market provides on average a 4% return, albeit with significant risk to your capital.

    Shawbrook bank are paying not far off this (3.26%) on a 1 year completely risk free bond (FSCS protected).

    https://www.shawbrook.co.uk/direct/s...ar-fixed-rate/

    When you can get close to stock market returns with no capital at risk, I think that is it the end of the stock market for at least a couple of years

  15. #8215
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I understand that the stock market provides on average a 4% return, albeit with significant risk to your capital.

    Shawbrook bank are paying not far off this (3.26%) on a 1 year completely risk free bond (FSCS protected).

    https://www.shawbrook.co.uk/direct/s...ar-fixed-rate/

    When you can get close to stock market returns with no capital at risk, I think that is it the end of the stock market for at least a couple of years
    Historical returns for equities are well above 4%.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  16. #8216
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I understand that the stock market provides on average a 4% return, albeit with significant risk to your capital.

    Shawbrook bank are paying not far off this (3.26%) on a 1 year completely risk free bond (FSCS protected).

    https://www.shawbrook.co.uk/direct/s...ar-fixed-rate/

    When you can get close to stock market returns with no capital at risk, I think that is it the end of the stock market for at least a couple of years
    Historical returns on US Equities are more like 10%. Factor in average inflation of 2.5% and 0.5% portfolio management fees and you get an average real return of 7% factoring in inflation.

  17. #8217

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Historical returns on US Equities are more like 10%. Factor in average inflation of 2.5% and 0.5% portfolio management fees and you get an average real return of 7% factoring in inflation.
    10% includes share price appreciation. I think the return (average dividends paid out) is 4%.

    Need to compare apples with apples as share price appreciation, can also be share price depreciation in the short to medium term.

    You also have to look at risk given your investment time horizon. Not everyone (including myself) is investing for 30 years.

  18. #8218
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    10% includes share price appreciation. I think the return (average dividends paid out) is 4%.

    Need to compare apples with apples as share price appreciation, can also be share price depreciation in the short to medium term.

    You also have to look at risk given your investment time horizon. Not everyone (including myself) is investing for 30 years.
    Yep of course, makes sense and everyone has different requirements from a portfolio and of course typically where dividends are higher then appreciation of share price may be lower

  19. #8219

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Yep of course, makes sense and everyone has different requirements from a portfolio and of course typically where dividends are higher then appreciation of share price may be lower
    And I get your point that equities will significantly outperform a money market account over the long term.

    But with economic dark clouds on the horizon and share price appreciation looking more difficult in the short to medium term, just looking at your options today, you can get 4% by putting your capital at significant risk, or 3.26% with no risk whatsoever.

    At the moment it doesnít feel like the dividend premium of 0.74 percentage points if significant enough when compared to the risk of losing significant capital.

    I think when the savings rate reaches 4% which may only be 3 or so months away, that may be the tipping point for equities.

  20. #8220
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    10% includes share price appreciation. I think the return (average dividends paid out) is 4%.

    Need to compare apples with apples as share price appreciation, can also be share price depreciation in the short to medium term.
    Completely wrong take. A return is a return, and for equities that includes both dividends as well as capital gains.

    If you invested $100 into the US stock market, US Treasury Bills, US Treasury Bonds or US Corporate Bonds or residential real estate, you will have compounded until end of 2021 either $761,710.83, $2,083.06, $8,526.95, $54,237.64 or $4,689.35.

    Over the 93 years, equites compounded at 10.1%, bills at 3.3%, bonds at 4.9%, coporate bonds at 7.0% and real estate at 4.2%. Shorter term returns over the last 20 years were somewhat different, with equities at 9.4% and real estate at 7.4%.

    Data: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamoda...histretSP.html
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  21. #8221

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Completely wrong take. A return is a return, and for equities that includes both dividends as well as capital gains.
    Ok, fair enough and I defer to your greater financial knowledge.

    If I was investing for 30 years then it seem like a no brainer to keep all in equity markets, and that is what I would do.

    But, as I have a good DB pension my investments are for another property to divide my retirement life between, which is only 3-4 years away.

    Capital preservation seems key to me at this stage of my life and I am sure like many other who are not a spring chicken.

    If the bank was paying 0%, then I am sure a money market account would be terrible choice. But with 3.26% available at no risk that seems OK to me.

    My concern is that over the short to medium term I can get 4% dividend growth in equities, but even that 4% comes with a significant risk over the short to medium term, given the high valuations of equities.

    Obviously donít want to get 4% return each year only to find 30% of my portfolio has eroded to to share price depreciation at the time I need the cash.

    Equally, I could be missing out on stock market capital increases, but that feels less likely in the short term, given the current overvaluation of US equities and the general inverse correlation of stock prices to interest rates.

    Happy to hear if my logic is completely flawed.

  22. #8222
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Ok, fair enough and I defer to your greater financial knowledge.

    If I was investing for 30 years then it seem like a no brainer to keep all in equity markets, and that is what I would do.

    But, as I have a good DB pension my investments are for another property to divide my retirement life between, which is only 3-4 years away.

    Capital preservation seems key to me at this stage of my life and I am sure like many other who are not a spring chicken.

    If the bank was paying 0%, then I am sure a money market account would be terrible choice. But with 3.26% available at no risk that seems OK to me.

    My concern is that over the short to medium term I can get 4% dividend growth in equities, but even that 4% comes with a significant risk over the short to medium term, given the high valuations of equities.

    Obviously donít want to get 4% return each year only to find 30% of my portfolio has eroded to to share price depreciation at the time I need the cash.

    Equally, I could be missing out on stock market capital increases, but that feels less likely in the short term, given the current overvaluation of US equities and the general inverse correlation of stock prices to interest rates.

    Happy to hear if my logic is completely flawed.
    Obviously, your personal investment portfolio needs to be adopted to your investment horizon and personal risk appetite. Definitely a mix of different asset classes.

    Don't think your 3% is so sexy, but you could probably build a portfolio with an expected return of 4-6% with an acceptable risk level.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  23. #8223

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Don't think your 3% is so sexy.
    I agree.

    I am not comfortable currently putting it anywhere else as every asset class, whether it be equities, property or trinkets appear massively overvalued at the moment.

    IF stuff sinks 20% further, I will be tempted to reverse course and dollar cost average everything into the SM over a couple of year timeframe.

    I am find balancing risk and reward difficult at the moment, probably like everyone else who is not in for the long term.

  24. #8224
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I agree.

    I am not comfortable currently putting it anywhere else as every asset class, whether it be equities, property or trinkets appear massively overvalued at the moment.

    IF stuff sinks 20% further, I will be tempted to reverse course and dollar cost average everything into the SM over a couple of year timeframe.

    I am find balancing risk and reward difficult at the moment, probably like everyone else who is not in for the long term.
    Welcome to the real world.

    Portfolio theory is quite simple and straightforward, but then we get attacked by our emotions and always do the opposite of what we should. Quite difficult to leave emotions out of it.

    But then, is sometimes funny to see how others have screwed up seven worse that any of us:

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  25. #8225
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    MSTR in free fall after company and Mr. Saylorman are sued for tax evasion.

    Love to see it, going to zero.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  26. #8226
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    Does -4% count as free fall?


    I cannot imagine MS or his company ever will fully evading their tax liabilities. Creative accounting, maybe, but tax evasion, no.

  27. #8227
    My small investment in Cineworld is making anyone who invested in Crypto this year look like a genius.

    A few hundred quid, so only gambling money, but I bet that footfall would return to the cinemas after Covid.

    I lost.

  28. #8228
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    My small investment in Cineworld is making anyone who invested in Crypto this year look like a genius.

    A few hundred quid, so only gambling money, but I bet that footfall would return to the cinemas after Covid.

    I lost.
    Exactly the same here. £200 down!

  29. #8229
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Does -4% count as free fall?
    Patience young grasshopper. The story is only just breaking.

    https://twitter.com/AGKarlRacine/sta...31380471382019

    PS Best wishes to the little one.

  30. #8230
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Does -4% count as free fall?


    I cannot imagine MS or his company ever will fully evading their tax liabilities. Creative accounting, maybe, but tax evasion, no.
    It's down 6%, was over 7% when I posted earlier.

    The news is about personal tax fraud from Taylor, and that the company is abetting him.

    Besides such little idiosyncratic risks, there is general market risk and the risk of a BTC selloff. Screaming short here if you ask me.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #8231
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    "Addentax Group Corp. ("Addentax" or the "Company") (NasdaqCM: ATXG), an integrated service provider focusing on garment manufacturing, logistics service, property management and subleasing, and epidemic prevention supplies, today announced the pricing of an underwritten public offering (the "Offering") of 5,000,000 shares of its common stock at a price to the public of $5.00 per share, for total gross proceeds of approximately $25 million, before deducting underwriting discounts and other related expenses."


    - So after selling 5 Mio shares at $5 each yesterday, the stock opened for trading today, first price was $27, only up by 440%. Then it dropped to $12.95, upon which it started is ascent to the moon.

    The company had $10 Mio revenue and an EBITDA of $70k last year and there are 26 million shares outstanding, meaning the company was worth about $130 million after yesterday's IPO pricing. I find that very rich for a Chinese do-everything trading/manufacturing conglomerate, but hey who I am to challenge? When the stock opened at $27, the company was suddenly worth $700 Mio Dollar, which is a LOT given the $10 Mio revenue and no profit. Meanwhile, the shares are currently halted at $411 and indications are for an opening around $680 within the next minutes, making the company worth almost $18 billion.

    You may ask yourself how many shares must have traded to get to such a 5,000% roller coaster happening within six hours of its IPO? 435k shares, not even 2% of its float.

    Truly the golden age of fraud.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  32. #8232
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    ATXG trading above $1,000 after hours, market cap >$30 billion, same as Barclays and close to the market cap of Vodafone.

    $10 Mio revenue, just saying.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #8233
    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce View Post
    I sold it all at £1.67, hoping it decreases to £1.53/£1.57 again and buy it back in. 
    Tracker now at £1.61 yesterday.

    FTSE was 7550 on 20th August , currently sitting at 7183, is this the decline now setting in after the recovery since July?

  34. #8234

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bruce View Post
    FTSE was 7550 on 20th August , currently sitting at 7183, is this the decline now setting in after the recovery since July?
    I will consult my crystal ball and come back to you.

    That aside, I am personally very bearish.

  35. #8235
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    MSTR in free fall after company and Mr. Saylorman are sued for tax evasion.
    Grassed on by the neighbours, perhaps?

    "The lawsuit is the first being brought under the districtís amended False Claims Act, which encourages whistleblowers to report residents who evade taxes by misrepresenting where they live, Racine said. Under the updated law, whistleblowers can collect up to 30 per cent of any recovery."

    https://www.ft.com/content/b356290d-...2-7f2d0c080f1c

    Maybe he kept blocking their moorings.

    "He also docks at least two of his luxury yachts in the district, the office said."

  36. #8236
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    I will consult my crystal ball and come back to you.

    That aside, I am personally very bearish.
    👍 further small drop today but heading that way

  37. #8237
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Grassed on by the neighbours, perhaps?

    "The lawsuit is the first being brought under the districtís amended False Claims Act, which encourages whistleblowers to report residents who evade taxes by misrepresenting where they live, Racine said. Under the updated law, whistleblowers can collect up to 30 per cent of any recovery."

    https://www.ft.com/content/b356290d-...2-7f2d0c080f1c

    Maybe he kept blocking their moorings.

    "He also docks at least two of his luxury yachts in the district, the office said."
    Down another 7% to $215.

    Still plenty of time to short, another 100% to go.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  38. #8238
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    ATXG trading above $1,000 after hours, market cap >$30 billion, same as Barclays and close to the market cap of Vodafone.

    $10 Mio revenue, just saying.
    ATXG opening at $571 today, after almost four hours of trading with a total turnover of 120,000 shares (!!!), it's trading down 92% to $45.

    Where is the SEC?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  39. #8239
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Where is the SEC?


    Right by the Amtrak Station, or just give them a call. Let us know how you get on.

  40. #8240
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post


    Right by the Amtrak Station, or just give them a call. Let us know how you get on.


    They are busy.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  41. #8241
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    ATXG opening at $571 today, after almost four hours of trading with a total turnover of 120,000 shares (!!!), it's trading down 92% to $45.

    Where is the SEC?
    Just bought a tiny position at $22 - just betting that they aren't finished yet. Not expecting it to return to >$500, but anything could happen. I like asymmetric stuff.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  42. #8242
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Just bought a tiny position at $22 - just betting that they aren't finished yet. Not expecting it to return to >$500, but anything could happen. I like asymmetric stuff.
    Update: bought 200 shares at average of $25, early trading spiked at $32 but has since collapsed to $13.

    Hmm. Giving it some more time, still think we may see some entertainment at some point later today or next week.

    May obviously also go to zero and if so, will cost me 5 grand.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  43. #8243
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Update: bought 200 shares at average of $25, early trading spiked at $32 but has since collapsed to $13.

    Hmm. Giving it some more time, still think we may see some entertainment at some point later today or next week.

    May obviously also go to zero and if so, will cost me 5 grand.
    Love the fact you seem so relaxed about it.

  44. #8244
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mj2k View Post
    Love the fact you seem so relaxed about it.
    Well, busted I'd say...?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  45. #8245
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Well, busted I'd say...?
    Hope of recovery very low, but 75%+ of loss realised, so just waiting what happens.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  46. #8246
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Hope of recovery very low, but 75%+ of loss realised, so just waiting what happens.
    Unlike you to punt money, but I get the gamble was a kind of red or black situation which could have easily made you a quick buck..

  47. #8247
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Unlike you to punt money, but I get the gamble was a kind of red or black situation which could have easily made you a quick buck..
    Asymmetric is the key word.

    5k downside, 50k upside. Doesn't happen very often.

    The last one was NAKD.
    Last edited by Raffe; 6th September 2022 at 16:31.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  48. #8248
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    Buying more Twitter stock, Musk is getting roasted at the Chancery court today.

    $54.20, not a penny less.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  49. #8249
    I wish I understood what the entire page was about. A friend tried to explain stocks and shares to me and I never could understand it - my take is you do well if you can find a bigger fool than you.
    The Chinese thing - they will bet on anything and they are quite prepared to bet big. We had Chinese (Hong Kong Chinese) crew on the ships (this pre hand back) and they would bet a months wages on the Mah Jong table of an evening, or who could catch the mpst squid.... it got quite fraught at times and required a clever management technique, luckily our chief mate had it and tended to get them back in order. I wouldn't be surprised if that spike was just more people jumping on a bandwagon because they saw it going up, then realised they had been suckered... the herd mentality of not wanting to miss out.

    I just put my pension money with a financial house and let them do the messing about for me.

  50. #8250

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    May obviously also go to zero and if so, will cost me 5 grand.
    Getting there. Stops loss?

    Some excellent trade in the past, but that one seems to be as successful as Luxembourgís womens football team.

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