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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #751
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    I'm not an economic expert but I do have lots of experience trading very profitably on sports betting exchanges and there isn't that much difference in the 2 segments so far that on betting exchanges as well as financial exchanges price of an asset is largely derived on sentiment plus market demand. It should be based on fundamentals (and long term it is hence Hedge Funds taking long positions based on research) however much of the daily movement is based on emotional 'hunch'. So assuming sentiment is a key factor in financial market asset prices then in a scenario where every Wall St analyst is trying to outdo themselves with negative predictions for the market then surely this HAS to be already priced in to asset prices. And also some of the negative forecasts are ludicrous - you get sensationalist headlines around 10% unemployment and millions of Americans claiming unemployment benefits without factoring in the fact that a massive reduction in GDP is government policy in order to lower the number of people who die from COVID. It is nothing else. So where I see predictions for 3 quarters of negative growth I know intrinsically this is bullsh*t. Today where the economy has been effectively shut down we have this huge drop in GDP. For us to have 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth we would need the economic situation to get even worse than it is now. What are we going to do - shut down supermarkets as well? So whatever happens over the next few months will surely be better than today - even if all it is is opening a few more shops.

    If you asked me to predict I reckon we will see a Nike Swoosh-shaped recovery however the main issue will be countries defaulting on the debts they just took on plus further bail outs of big companies. And I am getting the uneasy feeling we are inching towards a possible military escalation between the US and China. Already the anti-China rhetoric is being whipped up in the US, blaming them for Covid and stating the WHO is in China's pocket. The fact COVID isn't China's fault won't matter - 9/11 wasn't Iraq's fault and yet it was attacked by the USA. So in a weird way I believe COVID may be a catalyst for something more damaging

  2. #752
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I'm not an economic expert but I do have lots of experience trading very profitably on sports betting exchanges and there isn't that much difference in the 2 segments so far that on betting exchanges as well as financial exchanges price of an asset is largely derived on sentiment plus market demand. It should be based on fundamentals (and long term it is hence Hedge Funds taking long positions based on research) however much of the daily movement is based on emotional 'hunch'. So assuming sentiment is a key factor in financial market asset prices then in a scenario where every Wall St analyst is trying to outdo themselves with negative predictions for the market then surely this HAS to be already priced in to asset prices. And also some of the negative forecasts are ludicrous - you get sensationalist headlines around 10% unemployment and millions of Americans claiming unemployment benefits without factoring in the fact that a massive reduction in GDP is government policy in order to lower the number of people who die from COVID. It is nothing else. So where I see predictions for 3 quarters of negative growth I know intrinsically this is bullsh*t. Today where the economy has been effectively shut down we have this huge drop in GDP. For us to have 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth we would need the economic situation to get even worse than it is now. What are we going to do - shut down supermarkets as well? So whatever happens over the next few months will surely be better than today - even if all it is is opening a few more shops.

    If you asked me to predict I reckon we will see a Nike Swoosh-shaped recovery however the main issue will be countries defaulting on the debts they just took on plus further bail outs of big companies. And I am getting the uneasy feeling we are inching towards a possible military escalation between the US and China. Already the anti-China rhetoric is being whipped up in the US, blaming them for Covid and stating the WHO is in China's pocket. The fact COVID isn't China's fault won't matter - 9/11 wasn't Iraq's fault and yet it was attacked by the USA. So in a weird way I believe COVID may be a catalyst for something more damaging
    50 quid into the fundraiser if the Dow is lower in three months than it is today? I take the other side, I pay if it is higher.

  3. #753
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    50 quid into the fundraiser if the Dow is lower in three months than it is today? I take the other side, I pay if it is higher.
    Happy to do that and for a good cause too.

    So let's look at it on 9th July. It is 23,433.57 as of now. May the best gambler win :)

  4. #754
    My money is on Raffe. As you said Ryan once the likes of Italy and Spain need bailouts the whole Eurozone will come crashing down and all the issues with that. Countries printing money and creating more debt, this only has one outcome and that is a long term recession. Letís just hope we can get back to normal in the next two months, if not that recession will last even longer.

  5. #755
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    So for anyone sitting with a cashed-in SIPP, is it better to hold it thus or is there anywhere safe to put it right now??

  6. #756
    Grand Master 100thmonkey's Avatar
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    Another good day for these guys. Up another 20%.
    Ive been banging on about them from .79p and think £3 this week and with a buy out.... well who knows how mad they will go

    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  7. #757
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    So for anyone sitting with a cashed-in SIPP, is it better to hold it thus or is there anywhere safe to put it right now??
    Put it wherever best allows you to get a good nights sleep, is probably as good advice at a time like this as any other you're likely to receive.
    And be mindful of the fscs coverage limits.
    Last edited by Passenger; 9th April 2020 at 07:23.

  8. #758
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    So for anyone sitting with a cashed-in SIPP, is it better to hold it thus or is there anywhere safe to put it right now??
    Sitting tight here, not getting carried away with the recent stock market movement.

  9. #759
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    Quote Originally Posted by langdalematt View Post
    My money is on Raffe. As you said Ryan once the likes of Italy and Spain need bailouts the whole Eurozone will come crashing down and all the issues with that. Countries printing money and creating more debt, this only has one outcome and that is a long term recession. Let’s just hope we can get back to normal in the next two months, if not that recession will last even longer.
    Not wishing to be condescending but you should forget 2 months and a return to normal, that is just not possible given the current situation and plan/prepare for the rest of this year, certainly to be a strange one.
    Just my opinion, certainly hope for the best but prepare for the worst and you won't be/less likely to be disappointed.

    Oh and fwiw my money would also be on Raffe.
    Last edited by Passenger; 9th April 2020 at 07:16.

  10. #760
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Happy to do that and for a good cause too.

    So let's look at it on 9th July. It is 23,433.57 as of now. May the best gambler win :)
    Fine, put a reminder into the calendar. Close on the 9th July.

  11. #761
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    50 quid into the fundraiser if the Dow is lower in three months than it is today? I take the other side, I pay if it is higher.
    Normally, this would be a stupid question, but....

    ...what if the Dow does not exist in three months?

  12. #762
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Normally, this would be a stupid question, but....

    ...what if the Dow does not exist in three months?
    Or the more realistic what if the Dow ends exactly the same, ie 23,433.57? If it does I'll stick £100 in.

  13. #763
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Normally, this would be a stupid question, but....

    ...what if the Dow does not exist in three months?
    I suppose I won then?


    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    Or the more realistic what if the Dow ends exactly the same, ie 23,433.57? If it does I'll stick £100 in.
    Result!

  14. #764
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Another good day for these guys. Up another 20%.
    Ive been banging on about them from .79p and think £3 this week and with a buy out.... well who knows how mad they will go

    You have been mentioning them a lot, on your recommendation I have them in my trader watchlist but I'm yet to invest as I don't know enough about them?

    Already up 11% as I type

  15. #765
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    ITV up 14% so far this morning


    7% yesterday

    up 12% the day before

    and up 8% the day before that

    54p a few days ago now 74p
    Last edited by BillN; 9th April 2020 at 08:34.

  16. #766
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    50 quid into the fundraiser if the Dow is lower in three months than it is today? I take the other side, I pay if it is higher.
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Happy to do that and for a good cause too.

    So let's look at it on 9th July. It is 23,433.57 as of now. May the best gambler win :)

  17. #767
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Happy to do that and for a good cause too.

    So let's look at it on 9th July. It is 23,433.57 as of now. May the best gambler win :)

    Will follow with interest, I am with Ryan on this gamble!

  18. #768
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    So for anyone sitting with a cashed-in SIPP, is it better to hold it thus or is there anywhere safe to put it right now??
    Who knows ...

    The current gains could be signalling the end of the bottom or be a bear trap.

    My feeling is if it is the end of the bottom there isnít that much further upside and I can live with it if I miss out on that. But that requires a view that we will reasonably quickly return to the previous normal.

    The alternative view is that further trouble is ahead.

    Strikes me that the USA / Europe lock down will continue further causing significant reductions in GDP And historic levels of government borrowing / money printing to keep the economy on life support.

    Iím tempted to dribble some cash back in but Iím not ready yet ...

    Conclusion, the risk of missing the upside is of less concern than buying into further chaos. So Iím holding out. Capital preservation mode. Never been in this condition for the last 30 years.

  19. #769
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    Quote Originally Posted by maccer View Post
    Will follow with interest, I am with Ryan on this gamble!
    I'm with raffe, just for fun and the fundraiser fancy a 50 quid side bet, I pay if it's higher , you if it's lower...

  20. #770
    Boeing shares anyone?

  21. #771
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I'm with raffe, just for fun and the fundraiser fancy a 50 quid side bet, I pay if it's higher , you if it's lower...
    FWIW Raffe should be correct as business fundamentals will become more clear by then (and it won't look pretty). But as per my 'question about the Stock Market' thread it appears to me that these markets do not bear that much correlation with reality and instead are tied in to emotions. Means they are easily manipulated. But yes Raffe should be correct but my bet is he won't be due to many investors being a bit thick and short-term in outlook.

    Great that the Fundraiser is benefitting regardless.

  22. #772
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Who knows ...

    The current gains could be signalling the end of the bottom or be a bear trap.

    My feeling is if it is the end of the bottom there isnít that much further upside and I can live with it if I miss out on that. But that requires a view that we will reasonably quickly return to the previous normal.

    The alternative view is that further trouble is ahead.

    Strikes me that the USA / Europe lock down will continue further causing significant reductions in GDP And historic levels of government borrowing / money printing to keep the economy on life support.

    Iím tempted to dribble some cash back in but Iím not ready yet ...

    Conclusion, the risk of missing the upside is of less concern than buying into further chaos. So Iím holding out. Capital preservation mode. Never been in this condition for the last 30 years.
    I'm with you at the moment. I don't think reality has set in yet.

    Had a few quid in Novacyt (thanks to my friend on here, he knows who he is but I won't embarrass him!) but I can't see a company scaling up by a factor of 100 overnight. One issue, say a test is unreliable, and boom, there's no intrinsic value there.

    Personally I'm sticking tried-and-tested, old school, a little at a time and not just yet.

  23. #773
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    Quote Originally Posted by catch21 View Post
    I'm with you at the moment. I don't think reality has set in yet.

    Had a few quid in Novacyt (thanks to my friend on here, he knows who he is but I won't embarrass him!) but I can't see a company scaling up by a factor of 100 overnight. One issue, say a test is unreliable, and boom, there's no intrinsic value there.

    Personally I'm sticking tried-and-tested, old school, a little at a time and not just yet.
    Yeah Iím watching a few little bio / tech start ups which have jumped on the COVID bandwagon and have rocketed as a result. There are going to be quite a few tanking valuations in the coming weeks as it becomes clear that their world-saving tests / devices donít actually work and they have absolutely nothing else to offer.

  24. #774
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
    Yeah Iím watching a few little bio / tech start ups which have jumped on the COVID bandwagon and have rocketed as a result. There are going to be quite a few tanking valuations in the coming weeks as it becomes clear that their world-saving tests / devices donít actually work and they have absolutely nothing else to offer.
    That's the risk with jumping on overhyped stocks, especially when they only have one product. The outcome becomes very binary.

    Let's see what becomes of our forum darling. Anyone for a three month bet?

  25. #775
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That's the risk with jumping on overhyped stocks, especially when they only have one product. The outcome becomes very binary.

    Let's see what becomes of our forum darling. Anyone for a three month bet?
    Owning NCYT is bet enough I think

    Totally agree though, I'm going to hold into early/mid next week then assess whether to exit and run. Edit: just realised i'm locked in until next Thursday so holding til then at the very least.

  26. #776
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    You have been mentioning them a lot, on your recommendation I have them in my trader watchlist but I'm yet to invest as I don't know enough about them?

    Already up 11% as I type
    Well lads if you look back through the forum youíll see the weeks and months ago I was telling everybody that this was good news at that point they were below £1. 3 to £4 was always a given I actually think £7 is easily achievable and if they are taken over and get out of the penny shares game you could even see between £10-£50 per share.

    Why you may ask well this company have played a slow and accurate game and slowly dominate the market and for the next year whilst this virus is prevalent everybody will want a quick answer and even when this virus goes away you tell me anybody that wonít want to have a testing kit in their pocket to check should they get symptoms.
    "When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
    For Their Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today"

  27. #777
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Well lads if you look back through the forum youíll see the weeks and months ago I was telling everybody that this was good news at that point they were below £1. 3 to £4 was always a given I actually think £7 is easily achievable and if they are taken over and get out of the penny shares game you could even see between £10-£50 per share.

    Why you may ask well this company have played a slow and accurate game and slowly dominate the market and for the next year whilst this virus is prevalent everybody will want a quick answer and even when this virus goes away you tell me anybody that wonít want to have a testing kit in their pocket to check should they get symptoms.
    Sorry but I don't understand what you are talking about. There are literally dozens of companies which have developped rapid test kits for the coronavirus. There is however just one company which creates such a professional hype around it.

    Let's see how it plays out.

  28. #778
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    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Well lads if you look back through the forum youíll see the weeks and months ago I was telling everybody that this was good news at that point they were below £1. 3 to £4 was always a given I actually think £7 is easily achievable and if they are taken over and get out of the penny shares game you could even see between £10-£50 per share.

    Why you may ask well this company have played a slow and accurate game and slowly dominate the market and for the next year whilst this virus is prevalent everybody will want a quick answer and even when this virus goes away you tell me anybody that wonít want to have a testing kit in their pocket to check should they get symptoms.
    But should the kits be shown not to work, then what??

    Not that I care - filled my boots this morning :)

  29. #779
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Trading just halted in Novacyt.

  30. #780
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    I have not really looked at Novacyt until now, but from a technical perspective they look pretty strong I must say. Tests already evaluated and selling, with strong partnerships with blue chips and WHO EUA. There are some FAR more speculative outfits out there pumping their shares with considerably less substance.

    Well spotted to those who got in early. Very nice

  31. #781
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Trading just halted in Novacyt.
    Any idea why?

  32. #782
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    Price still seems to be moving, where do you see the trading halt?

  33. #783
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Any idea why?
    Dunno, just resumed and even higher. Last EUR 4.21 in Paris

  34. #784
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    I too have been keeping tabs on this stock but have held back as Raffe mentions - it kinda is a one product company and still too many what-ifs that could derail it. Still great trade for those that have bought it.

    I do want to ask.. How does Novacyt compare with Abbott's test? All I know is that results take 2 hours vs Abbott's which can give a positive result in 5 minutes, and is pretty easy to scale as the testing machine is already widespread? Sounds like Novacyt has to partner up with big pharma as they lack the manufacturing scale and there appears to be a shortage of the chemicals needed for the test?

    I do like that it's got many orders from governments globally and has FDA/WHO approval too.

    Sent from my EVR-L29 using Tapatalk

  35. #785
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Dunno, just resumed and even higher. Last EUR 4.21 in Paris
    Now halted again at EUR 4.53. What a monkey show.


    Edited: maybe just an auction, not sure how the SBF does this?

    Looks like a series of auctions to me, next one stopped at EUR 4.98. No news, no ad-hoc, very strange. Completely rumour-driven it appears?

    Last edited by Raffe; 9th April 2020 at 13:26.

  36. #786
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    400GBp broken through, gosh.

  37. #787
    Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Some stocks today have the same volatility as crypto did last year and that indicates froth.

    Ironically despite my bet the market will.be up in 3 months I'm putting all my SIPP payments in as cash for now.

  38. #788
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Sorry but I don't understand what you are talking about. There are literally dozens of companies which have developped rapid test kits for the coronavirus. There is however just one company which creates such a professional hype around it.

    Let's see how it plays out.
    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    But should the kits be shown not to work, then what??

    Not that I care - filled my boots this morning :)
    Quote Originally Posted by 100thmonkey View Post
    Well lads if you look back through the forum youíll see the weeks and months ago I was telling everybody that this was good news at that point they were below £1. 3 to £4 was always a given I actually think £7 is easily achievable and if they are taken over and get out of the penny shares game you could even see between £10-£50 per share.

    Why you may ask well this company have played a slow and accurate game and slowly dominate the market and for the next year whilst this virus is prevalent everybody will want a quick answer and even when this virus goes away you tell me anybody that wonít want to have a testing kit in their pocket to check should they get symptoms.
    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
    I have not really looked at Novacyt until now, but from a technical perspective they look pretty strong I must say. Tests already evaluated and selling, with strong partnerships with blue chips and WHO EUA. There are some FAR more speculative outfits out there pumping their shares with considerably less substance.

    Well spotted to those who got in early. Very nice
    Flying at 53% up as I type

  39. #789
    Another 6.6 million file for unemployment in the States (weekly number)
    Last edited by crazyp; 9th April 2020 at 14:02.

  40. #790
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I'm with raffe, just for fun and the fundraiser fancy a 50 quid side bet, I pay if it's higher , you if it's lower...
    Happily!!

    Good chance I am wrong ;-)

  41. #791
    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    Another 6.6 million file for unemployment in the States (weekly number)
    And this is the thing. I won't speak for the states but people are living on a bit of bank balance, having time off (or not depending on your profession), mortgage holiday, 80% pay from HMG, the weather is good, bank holiday coming up, bar-b-q out, glass of wine, loads of time to watch the share prices. Everything's on it's way back up, right? Sorry, simply not convinced yet. Neither am I convinced that this is going on for ages or will be devastation. Things will get back to "normal". I just personally don't think we're climbing back up yet.

  42. #792
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    Quote Originally Posted by catch21 View Post
    And this is the thing. I won't speak for the states but people are living on a bit of bank balance, having time off (or not depending on your profession), mortgage holiday, 80% pay from HMG, the weather is good, bank holiday coming up, bar-b-q out, glass of wine, loads of time to watch the share prices. Everything's on it's way back up, right? Sorry, simply not convinced yet. Neither am I convinced that this is going on for ages or will be devastation. Things will get back to "normal". I just personally don't think we're climbing back up yet.
    Completely agree with this.

  43. #793
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    Quote Originally Posted by maccer View Post
    Happily!!

    Good chance I am wrong ;-)
    Excellent then we have a bet, either way it's for a good cause.

  44. #794
    Quote Originally Posted by catch21 View Post
    And this is the thing. I won't speak for the states but people are living on a bit of bank balance, having time off (or not depending on your profession), mortgage holiday, 80% pay from HMG, the weather is good, bank holiday coming up, bar-b-q out, glass of wine, loads of time to watch the share prices. Everything's on it's way back up, right? Sorry, simply not convinced yet. Neither am I convinced that this is going on for ages or will be devastation. Things will get back to "normal". I just personally don't think we're climbing back up yet.
    The implied unemployment rate is 14%. It was 10% peak during the Great Recession. Things are going to crash hard.

    On the markets - I agree with the view that investors are testing the upper limits of what they are comfortable with. Once we roughly know where that is, we'll see a climb down.

  45. #795
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    The implied unemployment rate is 14%. It was 10% peak during the Great Recession. Things are going to crash hard.

    On the markets - I agree with the view that investors are testing the upper limits of what they are comfortable with. Once we roughly know where that is, we'll see a climb down.
    Fake unemployment rate due to enforced lockdown though? Not an apples with apples comparison surely?

  46. #796
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    Another 6.6m applied for unemployment benefit in the U.S. Higher than economists had predicted. Now looking at hitting 40m eventually. Posting negatives like this is a bit soul destroying but truth is weíre still at the beginning. Reality will not hit home for a long time. But it will hit home. Iím seeing a lot of very worried clients.

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    Quote Originally Posted by catch21 View Post
    And this is the thing. I won't speak for the states but people are living on a bit of bank balance, having time off (or not depending on your profession), mortgage holiday, 80% pay from HMG, the weather is good, bank holiday coming up, bar-b-q out, glass of wine, loads of time to watch the share prices. Everything's on it's way back up, right? Sorry, simply not convinced yet. Neither am I convinced that this is going on for ages or will be devastation. Things will get back to "normal". I just personally don't think we're climbing back up yet.
    Seems a few bears on this thread.

    My very basic view has established the following.

    - there will be many companies go down.
    - there is/will be significant unemployment
    - governments are taking on huge debts / printing money
    - lockdown will likely continue well into Q2
    - vaccines are some way off
    - some high profile debt defaults seem probable

    With all the above an optimist may say the FTSE100 can still recover medium term to perhaps 6500. Thatís a 12% upside to today. In the USA even at the current levels the DJIA looks fully valued and was arguably heading for a correction before C-19 so Iím not seeing much upside there. Similar in other overseas markets.

    If you take a bearish view I think you could easily create an argument for a 4000 FTSE or a 15000 DJIA which is a >30% downside.

    Given so many unknowns Iím willing to for go the upside potential to protect my capital from the risks of the downside.

    This really is a once in a generation situation that is unfolding on a daily basis. Iím sleeping fine with my cash holdings.

  48. #798
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Fake unemployment rate due to enforced lockdown though? Not an apples with apples comparison surely?
    In America most will be laid off. A proportion may well be furloughed due to the lockdown, but if they return? Very hard to know. It however does give an indication of the depths of how bad things are getting.

  49. #799
    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Another 6.6m applied for unemployment benefit in the U.S. Higher than economists had predicted. Now looking at hitting 40m eventually. Posting negatives like this is a bit soul destroying but truth is weíre still at the beginning. Reality will not hit home for a long time. But it will hit home. Iím seeing a lot of very worried clients.
    Might this be the time to start dripping money into an S&P 500 ETF?

  50. #800
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Flying at 53% up as I type
    Nope, it has not yet re-opened. Still closed, all those numbers were without trades.

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