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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #7851
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    For what it's worth, I closed most of my Tesla short today. Bought some more S&P, added some tech stocks. We shall see.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  2. #7852
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    8% one day gain on the DAX, that must be some sort of record.

  3. #7853
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    8% one day gain on the DAX, that must be some sort of record.
    Not at all. The Dax is a very volatile index, it's two biggest intraday moves happened in 2008, when on 13 October it rallied by 11.4% and on 28 October another 11.3%. The first one was a snap-back during the GFC after it had lost 24% during the previous five sessions, the second one was the day of the legendary Volkswagen short squeeze.

    But yesterday's one-day movement of over 1,000 points was the highest ever.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  4. #7854
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    What a wild couple of days.

    Glad I decided to sit it all out, so far.


    Surely with such wild swings in unknown directions, impossible to trade, Raffe?

  5. #7855
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    What a wild couple of days.

    Glad I decided to sit it all out, so far.


    Surely with such wild swings in unknown directions, impossible to trade, Raffe?
    I am a strong believer in break-outs, the most profitable trades are when a new direction is established. I am producing notoriously poor result when we are in a range, I keep buying at the top and selling at the bottom.

    Bought my Tesla yesterday just before they collapsed today, stopped out my S&P at 4,220 today. Bad day, so yes.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #7856
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Bought Palantir stock today.

  7. #7857
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    US going to summer time tonight, for the next two weeks market open and close will be one hour earlier.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  8. #7858
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    No idea why we always leave it another two weeks. No issue with kids walking to/from school in the dark just now.



    ETA - I speak as a southerner. Maybe it’s still dark up north in Scotland?

  9. #7859
    Its about the farmers

  10. #7860
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Anyone know what's driving the plunge in the USA?

    Coinbase at $150, amazon at $2800, SQ @ $92 etc......all very red.

    I assume its just further pressure from the perfect storm of inflation, QE easing, war and China on the brink of supporting Russia....?


    Still not sure if these are bargain prices or will head lower still. For days I've thought... "these are bargain prices I should buy in..." but I haven't, and the next day it's gone lower.....where bottom?

  11. #7861
    You've answered your own question

  12. #7862
    Master studly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    where bottom?
    When Ukraine make a deal with Russia (If ever).

  13. #7863
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    China seeing increasing cases and subsequent lockdowns. Not good news for global supply chains

  14. #7864
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    The markets seem to be incredibly fickle and random these days. Up and down with no clear cause. I suppose investors are just waiting for clarity on Ukraine, unless some other major twist occurs.

  15. #7865
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Something is up.

    Some of the hammered stocks in HK and China are flying this morning.

    JD, Baba etc up 30% and more.
    Last edited by mr noble; 16th March 2022 at 08:59.

  16. #7866

  17. #7867
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Something is up.

    BABA recovered back to where it was ... two days ago.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  18. #7868
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Is anyone buying Amazon pre-split?

  19. #7869
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Is anyone buying Amazon pre-split?
    Are you expecting the usual uptick once the price per share becomes affordable to those who can’t currently afford to buy 1 share?

    I think that’s what used to drive the surge after these stock splits, but a lot of the trading apps now offer fractional shares, so many of the smaller traders can already buy 0.1 Amazon shares if they want.

    I do expect there to be a bit of a pump though.

  20. #7870
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Where was the "usual uptick" when Google split last month? Or with any other stock in the history of stock exchanges, except for Tesla and some 1999/2000 dot-com stocks?

    It never existed, a stock spoilt has zero effect on the share price unless you are in a stock where meme-investors are driving the share price evolution. But that usually ends very bad in the end, so maybe you shouldn't be invested in those stocks in the first place?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  21. #7871
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    I’ve stayed away from shares and CFDs/fractional shares since I didn’t read the City Index terms properly years ago and put a small amount of money in a single buy and hold share which vanished when I logged in two years later as they require a certain number of trades to keep the account alive.

    The idea of owning some Amazon shares appeals to me but I never bothered as a single share was quite expensive however the idea of lumping in now and having 20 Amazon shares later on sounds good. I can dilute if needed to later on in 5% chunks if I wanted, quite flexible.

    Greg, do you use HL for buy and long term hold positions or something else? Would be good to keep them in an ISA but I also have an account with IBKR which I opened and never used.

  22. #7872
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    I’ve stayed away from shares and CFDs/fractional shares since I didn’t read the City Index terms properly years ago and put a small amount of money in a single buy and hold share which vanished when I logged in two years later as they require a certain number of trades to keep the account alive.

    The idea of owning some Amazon shares appeals to me but I never bothered as a single share was quite expensive however the idea of lumping in now and having 20 Amazon shares later on sounds good. I can dilute if needed to later on in 5% chunks if I wanted, quite flexible.

    Greg, do you use HL for buy and long term hold positions or something else? Would be good to keep them in an ISA but I also have an account with IBKR which I opened and never used.
    That's why stock splits exist and I find the approach sensible. My point is that you shouldn't expect the shares to move because of the split, because they won't.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  23. #7873
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That's why stock splits exist and I find the approach sensible. My point is that you shouldn't expect the shares to move because of the split, because they won't.
    Thank you, understood. I’m an expert in buy high and sell low so with this new attempt at shares I’ll look to just buy and hold for the long term.

    Will see what Greg and the other UK pros recommended re platform. Makes sense to put it in a SS ISA but from memory the HL fees are quite girthy and SS ISA providers aren’t plentiful.

  24. #7874
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    https://monevator.com/compare-uk-che...nline-brokers/

    Platform choice very much depends on what you need to achieve.

    I use HL for my main SIPP and ISA but after recent issues with them contributing to a major loss for me because of the way their system works, I now use IBKR for shares that I need to buy/sell/trade quickly using stop orders or limit buys.

    HL's system its very old and clunky and often will not execute a stop loss, which can obviously cause major issues. I had a stop loss on SMT which was not triggered and the next time I logged in to check, I was massively underwater. They just shrugged it off and pointed to their Ts&Cs, so be careful.

    IBKR is bang on with doing whatever you tell it to do.

    I also use Vanguard for my wife and kid's ISAs as their platform is nice, simple and cheap and they only offer their own funds and ETFs, meaning I can't gamble on any stonks. That cash just sits there passively working as it should, slow and steady. (Wish I'd done the same with my SIPP in 2020! Whoops)



    Use the link above to see how fees differ as some that may seem expensive have caps, and others don't, so it's not a simple comparison.

  25. #7875
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    To elaborate on the HL stop loss issue.....


    If you have £100,000 invested in share that you paid 100p per share for....and you have a stop loss set at 100p, you'd expect that if the price dropped to 100p your stop loss would kick in and £100,000 worth of shares woulds be sold.


    If you're using a proper platform like IBKR, that will happen and if you looked at the trade breakdown, you'd see about 10 to 50 smaller individual trades that all happened within a second or two, adding up to £100,000 worth sold at 100p. Some trades might be at 99.8p, some at 100.02p, but the net effect is what you wanted.


    HL's system is not capable of doing this. It will attempt ONCE to make ONE trade for £100,000 at 100p. When the system does not find a buyer for that exact amount at that exact moment, the stop loss fails and nothing happens. They send a message to your HL messaging centre to say, "We are sorry but the attempted trade did not execute." And that's it. Useless.

    Obviously there are ways to mitigate against this, like setting up a series of smaller stop losses........but it's a PITA.

  26. #7876
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Is anyone buying Amazon pre-split?
    Yeah, I went in for ten shares on Monday.

    As of Friday close, it's up 7.8%.
    Last edited by pacifichrono; 19th March 2022 at 09:09.

  27. #7877
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    Thanks Greg. I can’t get that site to load properly on my phone in any browser, even using the Request Desktop Mode feature, so will try from the laptop tomorrow (I can scroll sideways on the table).

    The stop loss situation seems genuinely mental. Shocking they are still around of that kind of system. They must be really resting on their laurels. It looks like IBKR have a UK SS ISA, any reason you haven’t moved it over? I use Vanguard for my own SIPP too. Tried the ISA there but I’d prefer to have my ISA in specific stocks.

    Great to hear you’re in for 10 shares PC. I’m here debating one share in a couple of meaty companies but with half an eye on Watches and Wonders and you’re piling in with 10!

  28. #7878

  29. #7879
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    TIGR over 100% up in 3 days.

    I'm now only 50% down.




    China finally said they'd work to resolve their regulatory issues and be more friendly toward their overseas listed stonks. Whoop.

  30. #7880
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    TIGR over 100% up in 3 days.

    I'm now only 50% down.




    China finally said they'd work to resolve their regulatory issues and be more friendly toward their overseas listed stonks. Whoop.
    Very liberal use of arithmetics here.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #7881
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    At time of writing it was 104% up from its low on the 15th.

    Good earnings yesterday, revenue forecast $50m, actual was $62m.

    Still a long way back to a $30 share price though.


    Raffe, your price prediction when you originally recommended this share iirc was $40 or even $50.

  32. #7882
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I never predicted a price.

    I shared a piece of research.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #7883
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    TIGR over 100% up in 3 days.

    I'm now only 50% down.




    China finally said they'd work to resolve their regulatory issues and be more friendly toward their overseas listed stonks. Whoop.
    hahah, thanks for bringing this up as I'd given up following mine for a while, personally speaking still got quite a loooong way to go yet, no worries though.

  34. #7884
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    How are the charity bets doing, almost halftime for bets #3, #4, #5 and #7?


    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Just got home, donation made for the lost S&P500 bet.

    Here's a quick summary of the seven bets I struck today, will counterparts please correct me if they have a different understanding (all bets in favour of forum fundraiser):

    1. Sean89: ETH marketcap > BTC marketcap anytime between today and 31/12/22. Raffe over, Sean under. £50

    2. Sean89: Floki Inu fully diluted market cap > $10bln on 31/12/2022. Sean over, Raffe under. £50

    3. Ryanb741: S&P500 > 5,000 on 30/06/2022, Ryan over, Raffe under. £50

    4. demonloop: BTC price > $150,000 anytime between today and 30/06/22. demonloop over, Raffe under. £50

    5. mr noble: Argo Blockchain price > 300p anytime between today and 30/06/22. mr noble over, Raffe under. £50

    6. Daveya: Raffe wins all of bets 1 to 5. Daveya over, Raffe under. £50

    7. Chinnock: AMC price > $50 on 30/06/2022, Chinnock over, Raffe under. £50

    1. Still more than 9 months left, but FLOKI INU has to go 30x to get there.
    2. I am still far out (currently 2.26 versus target <1), but also 9 months left
    3. S&P needs to run 12% in the next three months, absolutely possible. Small advantage for me, though.
    4. BTC needs to 3.5 x, not impossible but I won't lose my sleep just yet
    5. Yeah, sure
    6. I lose at least #2 or this one
    7. Ahem
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  35. #7885
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    I'm still confident :-)

    Worded my bet slightly better this time too, because it could easily get to 150k and back to 30k in 2.5 months!

  36. #7886
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    I'm still confident :-)

    Worded my bet slightly better this time too, because it could easily get to 150k and back to 30k in 2.5 months!
    Everything's possible. Don't forget to sell when it's at $150k.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  37. #7887
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I still think I’ll win my Argo bet.

    Not selling any of my 115,000 shares until they hit £3+.

  38. #7888
    I'm the only one confident right now

  39. #7889
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I still think I’ll win my Argo bet.

    Not selling any of my 115,000 shares until they hit £3+.
    If it ever hits £3, you will move your target to £5 and watch it fall back to zero afterwards.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  40. #7890
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If it ever hits £3, you will move your target to £5 and watch it fall back to zero afterwards.
    Actually, I’ll probably sell half at £1.75 and another chunk at £2. I expect I’ll have sold 90% of my shares before £2.25.

    I’m done with being underwater. Just want to get back to evens and stick it all back into VWRL, VEVE & VNRT and forget about it for 10 years.

  41. #7891
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    Bound to be a few RR holders, quite a squirt in sp just before Friday close, and some rumours:

    https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/...ver-offer.html

  42. #7892
    What is the best platform to use to buy S&P please. I’ve already maxed out ISA and will again in April so that’s not an option. Will cash it out to top up my ISA over the next few years so don’t want to get caught out with high fees to sell. Thanks

  43. #7893
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr.chef View Post
    What is the best platform to use to buy S&P please. I’ve already maxed out ISA and will again in April so that’s not an option. Will cash it out to top up my ISA over the next few years so don’t want to get caught out with high fees to sell. Thanks
    The best platform is not the same for everyone as they all have different fee structures depending on your balance. Some are cheaper for smaller investors and others are cheaper for larger amounts.

    The table is the most impartial and comprehensive one there is. (I think)

    https://monevator.com/compare-uk-che...nline-brokers/

  44. #7894
    Thanks I'll have a look

  45. #7895
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Ditched my gold holdings today and replaced them with a couple strong value funds. The gold made me some nice money, but it can also take a dive very quickly.

  46. #7896
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Ditched my gold holdings today and replaced them with a couple strong value funds. The gold made me some nice money, but it can also take a dive very quickly.
    I am buying more gold stocks right now.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  47. #7897
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    Opinions on whether potential interest rate increases from the Fed are already priced in?

  48. #7898
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cider View Post
    Opinions on whether potential interest rate increases from the Fed are already priced in?
    Yes.

  49. #7899
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Anyone exiting the market and converting into cash? With inflation high that's a guaranteed portfolio loss but with turmoil as a big potential I'm struggling to see where to de-risk for a year or so

  50. #7900
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Anyone exiting the market and converting into cash? With inflation high that's a guaranteed portfolio loss but with turmoil as a big potential I'm struggling to see where to de-risk for a year or so

    No, tried that before and lost money. I’m in for the long term and will ride it out.

    Market timing is too difficult to get both the exit and re-entry times correct. Usually you get one …

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