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  1. #7601
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Tesla kept this apparently recurring issue quiet!

  2. #7602
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Tesla kept this apparently recurring issue quiet!
    This is old stuff, keeps happening:

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/136377...7658490111523/

    https://www.motorbiscuit.com/this-is...slas-to-crash/

    The cars are the worst vehicles ever produced. They are built in tents on a huge junkyard.

    https://tslaq.org/fremont-factory-gallery/
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  3. #7603
    More Musk madness

    https://youtu.be/2vuMzGhc1cg

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  4. #7604
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Closed my Tesla short just above breakeven.

    This is just crazy.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  5. #7605
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Closed my Tesla short just above breakeven.

    This is just crazy.
    I shouldn't have done that. Well....


    Blood shedding in the crypto complex, ARB, RIOT, MARA and MSTR being decimated. Also GME and AMC slaughtered. A lot of pain today for meme and momentum stocks.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #7606
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post


    Blood shedding in the crypto complex
    Is that due to Omicron?

  7. #7607
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Estoril-5 View Post
    Is that due to Omicron?
    Who knows, but that would make little sense.

    When equities trade down on virus uncertainties, that makes sense as company earning could be affected. But crypto? No earnings, just the belief that there will be people willing to pay more next week/month/year - so why would Omnicron have an effect? Well, if you believe in a big economic crisis due to Omnicron, which would in turn influence people's means to spend money of crypto, but that's a long shot.

    Honestly, I think short term crypto prices are mostly manipulation by a handful of large trading firms and long term it's dependent on remaining able to sign additional people to the crowd of believers.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  8. #7608
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Elon has boosted up his Doge crowd of believers today. Amazing what one tweet can do.

    $Doge.x up 30%.

    Time magazine’s “Person of the Year” had this to say this morning….

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...677840896?s=21
    Last edited by mr noble; 14th December 2021 at 13:48. Reason: Typo

  9. #7609
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Elon has boosted up his Doge crowd of believers today. Amazing what one tweet can do.

    $Doge.x up 30%.

    Time magazine’s “Person of the Year” had this to say this morning….

    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/...677840896?s=21
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  10. #7610
    We will know of it's Omicron caused when we get the good news officially it's not a dangerous variant. If we get mega bounce then yeah it had an impact. If not the recent dippage has been about all the other genuinely bad economic news

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  11. #7611
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    We will know of it's Omicron caused when we get the good news officially it's not a dangerous variant. If we get mega bounce then yeah it had an impact. If not the recent dippage has been about all the other genuinely bad economic news

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    Simply speaking, the short-term correlation between asset classes is very high. It's either risk on, or it's risk off. When it's risk off, even assets that have no credible connection to the development of the pandemic, are selling because they are deemed risky because of their volatility.

    Such are markets.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  12. #7612
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Simply speaking, the short-term correlation between asset classes is very high. It's either risk on, or it's risk off. When it's risk off, even assets that have no credible connection to the development of the pandemic, are selling because they are deemed risky because of their volatility.

    Such are markets.
    Yeah, can't really claim Crypto isn't volatile when bowl head tweets 20% on Doge in 3 hours

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  13. #7613
    Not a lot of Christmas cheer around is there

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  14. #7614
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Is anyone struggling to log into HL this am? Just won't recognise my credentials, even on the phone app with biometric login

  15. #7615
    It works for me. I try not to log in as the INO shares are still there showing a rather large % loss.

  16. #7616
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NikGixer750 View Post
    It works for me. I try not to log in as the INO shares are still there showing a rather large % loss.
    Cheers, works fine for me now also, maybe just a temporary bug. And yes, like you I wish I'd not bothered logging in!

  17. #7617
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I think the top is in for this year. Just sold S&P, TSLA and bitcoin.

    I am not going to die on this (or any other) hill, so will stop if we trade new highs.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  18. #7618
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I think the top is in for this year. Just sold S&P, TSLA and bitcoin.

    I am not going to die on this (or any other) hill, so will stop if we trade new highs.

    Just closed the short Tesla at a small loss (would have been a nice profit yesterday at $1,080) and went long*. Not looking for a big move, but the lemmings will jump on this today as Elon seems to have finished his selling.

    Short bitcoin going well, but not yet expecting the collapse before we do a final rally to $50k.


    * And that was a very bad idea. Short on the way up, long on the way down. I think I am already done with today before the market opens. Grrrhhhh.

    ** Good thing I cut the first loss - $ 1,075 now, that would have been ugly.
    Last edited by Raffe; 29th December 2021 at 16:06.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  19. #7619
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    An eve of New Year's Eve warm up quiz. What does this chart depict?



    And for bonus points, by how much will the fund raiser benefit?

  20. #7620
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    It’s gonna benefit by £50 from me anyway :-)

    Unless it’s a wild 24hrs!

    Funnily I didn’t think there was a cat in hells chance of losing this one. In fact I’d have taken the bet at 75k. Funny old game this crypto lark..

  21. #7621
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Looks like I am going to lose at least one of the four bets, and that is the bet that I didn't want to have.

    Ryan posted this nonsense comment on 30 August (the S&P500 was trading at 4,500 pre-opening), typing "The fall could be massive".

    I challenged him to explain what the graph actually said and he couldn't explain, but he anyway tried to use it as explanation why the market was bound to fall. I wasn't bearish at all and thought this was complete nonsense, so I asked him to give me his level for the S&P500 for year-end with the intention to buy, upon which he replied with 4,700 - minutes after he had argued how overvalued the market was at 4,500 and that it was destined to fall. Well, I found that so funny that I accepted the lower side of the bet (I almost had taken the upper side anyway, but then I left it to him).

    Only Ryan can pull this off, really.




    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    It’s gonna benefit by £50 from me anyway :-)

    Unless it’s a wild 24hrs!

    Funnily I didn’t think there was a cat in hells chance of losing this one. In fact I’d have taken the bet at 75k. Funny old game this crypto lark..
    It's only 5% under, wouldn't require a wild 24 hours to flip above. We will see.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  22. #7622
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    And for bonus points, by how much will the fund raiser benefit?
    250 quid. What do I win?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  23. #7623
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Hope? One day left, less than 2 % to go.


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  24. #7624
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Looks like I am going to lose at least one of the four bets, and that is the bet that I didn't want to have.

    ... some irritable chuntering...

    Only Ryan can pull this off, really.
    Somehow I just knew that one was going to irk you ;-).

  25. #7625
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Somehow I just knew that one was going to irk you ;-).
    Hehe, it does.

    But mostly because Ryan was first predicting doomsday and then marked his quote up. He has been flip-flopping all year and been contradicting himself nonstop - but this one was even amazing by his standards.

    It's not over until the fat lady sings, 23 hours left.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  26. #7626
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It's not over until the fat lady sings, 23 hours left.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  27. #7627
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    Raffe do you pay any attention to the trades made and disclosed by congress in the US? Seems to be a fair amount of interest in Nancy Pelosi’s trades.

  28. #7628
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Raffe do you pay any attention to the trades made and disclosed by congress in the US? Seems to be a fair amount of interest in Nancy Pelosi’s trades.
    The right love it, but it's complete BS. She doesn't trade, there is an asset manager who is trading on behalf of her husband and every time the trades are disclosed, people think a 81 year old politician trades in options. She doesn't.

    I still don't understand why they don't change the setup, or at least communicate about it, because it hurts trust in politicians and the democratic party will suffer at the next elections.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  29. #7629
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Congratulations Raffe, surprisingly, you’ve won the Argo Blockchain bet.

    I said the SP would be over £3 at some point prior to today, it’s looking like it will miss the £3 point by a tiny margin, so well done to you.

    I have just sent £100 to the Fundraiser.

  30. #7630
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Congratulations Raffe, surprisingly, you’ve won the Argo Blockchain bet.

    I said the SP would be over £3 at some point prior to today, it’s looking like it will miss the £3 point by a tiny margin, so well done to you.

    I have just sent £100 to the Fundraiser.
    Almost two hours of trading left and you are throwing the towel already?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #7631
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Almost two hours of trading left and you are throwing the towel already?
    Ummmmm. I guess it’s still possible.


    Just after pigs fly past my window
    Last edited by mr noble; 31st December 2021 at 11:54.

  32. #7632
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Looks like I'll win my S&P bet. Again ;)

    Predictions for S&P value at 31/6/22. Fundraiser bet again

  33. #7633
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    LOLZ.

    The fall could be massive.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  34. #7634
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Not long to go now to the finishing post and it certainly isn't looking like there is enough time left to make any substantive difference to last night's closing numbers.




    Full details of the actual wagers can be found in this post by Raffe. As has been observed by others, I was quite surprised how close a run it was with a couple of them.

  35. #7635
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Close at 4,766, I owe £50 to the fundraiser.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  36. #7636
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Looks like I'll win my S&P bet. Again ;)

    Predictions for S&P value at 31/6/22. Fundraiser bet again
    There is no 31/06, but you are welcome to give a quote for COB 30/06/2022.

    Or do you want me to quote and you trade?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  37. #7637
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    There is no 31/06, but you are welcome to give a quote for COB 30/06/2022.

    Or do you want me to quote and you trade?
    I'll let you take a position first and I'll take the opposite. That's how this current trade happened as I suspect you'd have taken the position I went first with as it was more likely to win. So you take a reasonable position (don't say over 1000 etc meaning I have to bet under 1000 lol), I'll automatically take the opposite position. £50 to FR.

  38. #7638
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I'll let you take a position first and I'll take the opposite. That's how this current trade happened as I suspect you'd have taken the position I went first with as it was more likely to win. So you take a reasonable position (don't say over 1000 etc meaning I have to bet under 1000 lol), I'll automatically take the opposite position. £50 to FR.
    Alright.

    Average return for sp500 is 10%, I go short that.

    4,766 X 1.05 = 5,004

    Let's make it a round 5,000

    Ok?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  39. #7639
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Alright.

    Average return for sp500 is 10%, I go short that.

    4,766 X 1.05 = 5,004

    Let's make it a round 5,000

    Ok?
    Ok so I'm going long. £50 to FR, bet expires 30th June. Best of luck

  40. #7640
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    Loving the bets. Well done Raffe, Ryanb and all.

    All for a good cause.

  41. #7641
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Four bets closed today, three new ones on already.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  42. #7642
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Four bets closed today, three new ones on already.
    Fancy another? ;-)

    £50 says Bitcoin will get over 150k usd at some point by the middle of the year, you say different?

  43. #7643
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Fancy another? ;-)

    £50 says Bitcoin will get over 150k usd at some point by the middle of the year, you say different?
    Confirmed.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  44. #7644
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    That’s a brave one. Could have said $100k and still had Ralf take the bet.




    I’m happy to continue my ambitious Argo bet.

    £3 SP at any point before 30th June 2022. £50 to the FR.

  45. #7645
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    That’s a brave one. Could have said $100k and still had Ralf take the bet.




    I’m happy to continue my ambitious Argo bet.

    £3 SP at any point before 30th June 2022. £50 to the FR.
    Bring them on. Accepted.

    That is five bets for 30 June, with that I am out.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  46. #7646
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Someone a MSTR bet for Pete?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  47. #7647
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Bring them on. Accepted.

    That is five bets for 30 June, with that I am out.
    Cause you’re worried you might lose them all?

  48. #7648
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Cause you’re worried you might lose them all?
    Want to increase the Argo bet to 500 quid?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  49. #7649
    I bet Raffe wins all 5, 50 quid, any takers?

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  50. #7650
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    I bet Raffe wins all 5, 50 quid, any takers?

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    I take that one. Want to make sure I have to contribute something.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

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