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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #7401
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    After a market cap increase of half a trillion dollars, Elon just posted that the Hertz deal isn't signed yet.

    Gotta love 2021.
    Tesla down $30 on that admission. That was worth it, up $300, down $30.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  2. #7402
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    I think Tesla starting the process of opening up Superchargers to all EVs may be providing providing boost also as they have a 10 year infrastructure head start and with increased EV adoption they have a material opportunity to diversify revenues away from cars.

  3. #7403
    Tesla up over 50% in last 4 weeks incredible really, gotta end soon right

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  4. #7404
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Relief.


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  5. #7405
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    ^ This was the morning low, shares have since reversed and traded as high as $1,208 again. The reversal coincided with the news that Tesla is recalling its FSD software because the cars are acting dangerously, but we all knew that. Absolutely normal, and meanwhile Avis has doubled trebled in value because they have reported results a little above expectations and just for the fun of it, Hertz has at one time gone up 50% in sympathy. On the other hand, Hertz keeps talking about a contract over 100,000 Tesla cars which Elon Musk says doesn't exist.

    I have said many times that this market has gone nuts, I am running out of vocabulary and superlatives to describe what's happening. And believe me, I have seen a lot already, from CMGI at $240 in 2000 to UBS perpetual bonds at 15 cents on the Dollar in 2009, I traded it all and I remember some very painful trades that eventually became very profitable (unfortunately not that Mannesmann short in 2000 though). This is going to end in a big BANG, not sure though if it will be a big bang up or a big bang down. Anything is possible and I wonder if Tesla will indeed have to go to $2,000 before it collapses.

    I have no idea. But this is crazy beyond imagination.
    Last edited by Raffe; 2nd November 2021 at 16:22.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #7406
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    Staying away from shares as the price movements are so extreme. Too easy to lose your shirt but good fun for those who have the spare cash for a flutter.

    Cheers
    Rory


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  7. #7407
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    ^ This was the morning low, shares have since reversed and traded as high as $1,208 again. The reversal coincided with the news that Tesla is recalling its FSD software because the cars are acting dangerously, but we all knew that. Absolutely normal, and meanwhile Avis has doubled trebled in value because they have reported results a little above expectations and just for the fun of it, Hertz has at one time gone up 50% in sympathy. On the other hand, Hertz keeps talking about a contract over 100,000 Tesla cars which Elon Musk says doesn't exist.

    I have said many times that this market has gone nuts, I am running out of vocabulary and superlatives to describe what's happening. And believe me, I have seen a lot already, from CMGI at $240 in 2000 to UBS perpetual bonds at 15 cents on the Dollar in 2009, I traded it all and I remember some very painful trades that eventually became very profitable (unfortunately not that Mannesmann short in 2000 though). This is going to end in a big BANG, not sure though if it will be a big bang up or a big bang down. Anything is possible and I wonder if Tesla will indeed have to go to $2,000 before it collapses.

    I have no idea. But this is crazy beyond imagination.
    When I was involved in corporate PR many moons ago for a tech company we had to be really careful what we said in releases, especially earnings release for forecasts and strategy accuracy for fear of getting in big trouble with the SEC.

    Seems that you can say what you like now to pump your stock with impunity. What has happened?

  8. #7408
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    When I was involved in corporate PR many moons ago for a tech company we had to be really careful what we said in releases, especially earnings release for forecasts and strategy accuracy for fear of getting in big trouble with the SEC.

    Seems that you can say what you like now to pump your stock with impunity. What has happened?
    The SEC prefers to prosecute small time insider traders, the bigger the fish the less they are interested.

    Elon has been blatantly disregarding the SEC ruling after his "funding secured" disaster in 2019, zero consequences. The FSD fraud, shitcoin pumps, no filing of material information, outright lies and deception - all of it unpunished.

    It all cumulated in this legendary tweet:

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  9. #7409
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The SEC prefers to prosecute small time insider traders, the bigger the fish the less they are interested.

    Elon has been blatantly disregarding the SEC ruling after his "funding secured" disaster in 2019, zero consequences. The FSD fraud, shitcoin pumps, no filing of material information, outright lies and deception - all of it unpunished.

    It all cumulated in this legendary tweet:

    I’d not seen that tweet. You’d have thought that would have been a red rag to a bull.

    However it seems they don’t have the appetite to take on the super rich.

  10. #7410
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    Do you think that the accessibility of trading to members of the public is making the trading world crazy? It used to be the job of established firms but the multiplier of millions ‘having a dabble’ must be muddying the waters for established trading models. ( I have a vague idea I have asked this before)
    Cheers..
    Jase

  11. #7411
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonM View Post
    Do you think that the accessibility of trading to members of the public is making the trading world crazy? It used to be the job of established firms but the multiplier of millions ‘having a dabble’ must be muddying the waters for established trading models. ( I have a vague idea I have asked this before)
    Members of the public always had access to markets. But the crowd investing of large groups of investors like WSB or organised pump'n'dump schemes via Discord channels have certainly left an impact. Also, those people disregard all basic risk management, and the market has rewarded them plenty for yolo'ing everything into shitcompanies like GME or AMC.

    And don't think for a second that there isn't a huge chunk of institutional money that is playing along and multiplying these trades. Obviously, these are employing risk management, but in the end they are amplifying the moves by the WSB types by a large factor. I think most of the stuff originates in the ape groups, but the money leveraging these trades is smart money and when WSB thinks that they are sticking it to Wallstreet, they are in fact just making Wallstreet even richer.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  12. #7412
    Grand Master JasonM's Avatar
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    Thanks Raffe.
    Cheers..
    Jase

  13. #7413
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Members of the public always had access to markets. But the crowd investing of large groups of investors like WSB or organised pump'n'dump schemes via Discord channels have certainly left an impact. Also, those people disregard all basic risk management, and the market has rewarded them plenty for yolo'ing everything into shitcompanies like GME or AMC.

    And don't think for a second that there isn't a huge chunk of institutional money that is playing along and multiplying these trades. Obviously, these are employing risk management, but in the end they are amplifying the moves by the WSB types by a large factor. I think most of the stuff originates in the ape groups, but the money leveraging these trades is smart money and when WSB thinks that they are sticking it to Wallstreet, they are in fact just making Wallstreet even richer.
    But the valuation of Tesla isn’t caused by that but long term huge optimism for their market dominance of the future EV market which seems massively over done to me and this is so big that many must share that optimism.

  14. #7414
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    But the valuation of Tesla isn’t caused by that but long term huge optimism for their market dominance of the future EV market which seems massively over done to me and this is so big that many must share that optimism.
    I think it's first and foremost caused by the biggest gamma squeeze in the history of stock exchanges.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  15. #7415
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I think it's first and foremost caused by the biggest gamma squeeze in the history of stock exchanges.
    So who is the whale buying the call options and how long does a gamma squeeze typically last?

  16. #7416
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    So who is the whale buying the call options and how long does a gamma squeeze typically last?
    It's not the same type as last year's S&P500 option buying by SoftBank, this time they are buying weekly options and the money is recycled week over week. As I said above, there are many hedge funds who have jumped onboard and are playing along. Think of Bill Hwang type investors, who will do anything to get 200% return per year.

    There are many billions that are chasing this game, that's why it is so difficult to forecast when the bubble will pop.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  17. #7417
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It's not the same type as last year's S&P500 option buying by SoftBank, this time they are buying weekly options and the money is recycled week over week. As I said above, there are many hedge funds who have jumped onboard and are playing along. Think of Bill Hwang type investors, who will do anything to get 200% return per year.

    There are many billions that are chasing this game, that's why it is so difficult to forecast when the bubble will pop.
    The valuation is so huge that when it does pop and return to its fundamentals it is going to be carnage.

  18. #7418
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The valuation is so huge that when it does pop and return to its fundamentals it is going to be carnage.
    If that ever happens...
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  19. #7419
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Can't Stop Won't Stop

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  20. #7420
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The valuation is so huge that when it does pop and return to its fundamentals it is going to be carnage.
    I think Horse is reading your posts.


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  21. #7421
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    I was expecting plummeting stock markets when Jerome finally announced the start of tapering.

    Has that not happened because everyone already knew it was coming?

    Maybe Tesla will get to $2000 after all.

  22. #7422
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    I'm currently split around 60/40 in Crypto and equities. I moved to all cash position in Crypto in early Sept expecting a BTC drop to $35.5k

    It went to $39.5k and no bloody lower so my cash pile stayed and it has cost me a lot on paper at least.

    I am fully expecting a serious retraction in both equities and crypto markets and the exuberance buoying them currently is IMO? Utterly amazing, it's like the world has decided quantitive easing has zero inflationary consequence.

    My plan over the next 3 months for equities is to gain some exposure to India and in particular Indian heavy industry and defence stocks. Will also add some pharma, long term health care, diabetes focused stocks.
    Also add to Russell midcap ETF, add Boeing at @205 and broader US aerospace exposure via ITA etf.

    For capital protection, I've got some physical silver and more in miners and PSLV. The majority of my liquidity though I'll likely keep in crypto with BTC as the main holding along with Link, cardano, rose and LRC as long holds.

    The last week has been great, but making money on a rising market is easy.
    I do think a serious correction is incoming and capital protection to allow me some advantage when it hits is my main aim at this point.

    Sent from my Redmi K30 Pro using Tapatalk

  23. #7423
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    It never stops.


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  24. #7424
    'bullish outlook for the stock'

    Are you out?

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  25. #7425
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    'bullish outlook for the stock'

    Are you out?

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    Bought 30 shares yesterday during the morning dip and the rest at 1236 today. Was only short 100 shares but manged to book a $12k loss on it.

    That's not how this is supposed to work. Blew up a week's work in one trade.

    This will blow up spectacularly at one point, but may go to $1,500 or even $2,000 first. No way of telling, it's been ridiculous for more than a year already and may well stay that way for some time. I compare this to spring 2000, any sensible investor had no words for what happened and the apes were cheering "this time it's different, new era and old ways don't work anymore". Well it wasn't different, first the early shorters were rekt and then the apes. Exactly what's going to happen this time, and I want to make sure I have a maximum amount of dry powder when this thing implodes.

    Having said that, it's probably topping today because I have closed my short.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  26. #7426
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It never stops.


    When I watch something like that I can’t help but think all this options trading isn’t healthy for a market. Looks like a whole heap of manipulation going on.

  27. #7427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    When I watch something like that I can’t help but think all this options trading isn’t healthy for a market. Looks like a whole heap of manipulation going on.
    I think it's the intention that counts. Options are a relevant tool to trade and tactical bets have always been part of the game.

    But I agree, when those huge trades are put on with the only purpose to manipulate the price of the underlying, we are crossing a border. It's the tail wagging the dog.

    Exactly the type of game that Bill Hwang was playing , only with a much bigger underlying (and not a single player but a whole group of them).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  28. #7428
    Canada soccer mummy is short

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  29. #7429
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Told you he would sell, was just one week too early.

    This is going to hammer the stock.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  30. #7430
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Told you he would sell, was just one week too early.

    This is going to hammer the stock.
    Yes is a clear winner, will start a stampede

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  31. #7431
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    At least he told his brother Kimbal beforehand, so he could sell $100 Mio of Tesla stock yesterday.

    Blood is thicker than water.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  32. #7432
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    How can anyone invest into a company that is managed by this crackhead?

    Seriously.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #7433
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    How can anyone invest into a company that is managed by this crackhead?

    Seriously.

    It's a circus isn't it

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  34. #7434
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Having said that, it's probably topping today because I have closed my short.
    It will never get back to $1,236 in our lifetime.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  35. #7435
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    Quote Originally Posted by studly View Post

    Last edited by Raffe; 6th November 2021 at 22:46.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  36. #7436
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Go on Michael, Do it Do it Do it...

    Buying 25 Billion of BTC is making me think that it might be worth going long???

  37. #7437
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Tesla down 8% in German Sunday afternoon trading.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  38. #7438
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Tesla down 8% in German Sunday afternoon trading.
    Going to be an interesting week

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  39. #7439
    Master studly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Raffe, i was not laughing at your predictions.

    I was laughing at your obsession with Elon Musk and Tesla.

    See here

    I'm also short and have been for the past week.

  40. #7440
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Sure.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  41. #7441
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Sure.


    I'll make it clearer next time, so you don't get the wrong message.

  42. #7442
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    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  43. #7443
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    That time when the richest man on the planet responded to a tweet by a sitting US senator about taxation of the rich.

    #layoffthedrugs

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  44. #7444
    Lol he's insane

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  45. #7445
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Just stoned.

    In a functional company, the Board would have removed him from the job long time ago. But Tesla needs him, needs him posting this kind of crap to keep the machine going and painting over the accounting fraud, the securities law breaches, the safety issues and lack of economic performance.

    What a time to be alive. Lorde Edge.

    Strong buy signal for the stock, if there ever was one.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  46. #7446
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    My MSTR holding in both ISA and SIPP are both finally back in profit after a long period underwater.

    Not selling yet though.....



    They had good results from their main business at last earnings, so I'm expecting Peter's next comedy chart to show some uplift in the underlying stock value as well as their BTC holding.

  47. #7447
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Strong buy signal for the stock, if there ever was one.
    Sell Tezla, buy Doge bro.

  48. #7448
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    My MSTR holding in both ISA and SIPP are both finally back in profit after a long period underwater.

    Not selling yet though.....



    They had good results from their main business at last earnings, so I'm expecting Peter's next comedy chart to show some uplift in the underlying stock value as well as their BTC holding.
    You have your MSTR get out of jail free card and you are not playing it ?

  49. #7449
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    You have your MSTR get out of jail free card and you are not playing it ?
    Will play out like TIGR.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  50. #7450
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    You have your MSTR get out of jail free card and you are not playing it ?
    Having had the patience of a monk for the last many months....I'd like to exit with a some of the profit I expected when I bought in.

    Balls of steel. (Or just stupid?).



    I made my exit plan months ago and intend to stick to it. Just like I did with TIGR - doh.

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