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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #7301
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I’d suggest no one takes investment advice from me.



    I may have been a little overexcited again.

  2. #7302
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I’d suggest no one takes investment advice from me.



    I may have been a little overexcited again.
    Not to worry. I put a not insignificant sum a couple of weeks back on CLOV when it was at $12 as it was clearly going to the moon. Well it's gone somewhere.....

  3. #7303
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Last night I executed 22 "sell" orders, leaving only two stocks/funds in my portfolio. Too many market indicators are negative, and in 16 days both Mrs PC and I will be retired. I got scared!


  4. #7304
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Not to worry. I put a not insignificant sum a couple of weeks back on CLOV when it was at $12 as it was clearly going to the moon. Well it's gone somewhere.....
    That chart looks similar to TIGR and OUST.

  5. #7305
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I’d suggest no one takes investment advice from me.



    I may have been a little overexcited again.
    Approaching 6% return since yesterday morning after the last 30 minutes' BTC bounce.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  6. #7306
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Too many market indicators are negative
    Which market indicators are worrying you?

  7. #7307
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by benwisback View Post
    Which market indicators are worrying you?
    These:
    - Increasing likelihood of rising inflation
    - Latest surge of Covid/Delta will continue hurting global economic recovery
    - Continuing disruption of supply chains
    - Sudden rise in bond yields
    - Indications that the U S. Fed will be tightening its interest policy
    - Prospect of heightening domestic terror activities
    - U.S. debt ceiling problem and its impact on meeting debt obligations
    - Biden's quandary in getting key funding legislation passed

    Other than that, I'm an optimist!

  8. #7308
    Go short then?

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  9. #7309
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    These:
    - Increasing likelihood of rising inflation
    - Latest surge of Covid/Delta will continue hurting global economic recovery
    - Continuing disruption of supply chains
    - Sudden rise in bond yields
    - Indications that the U S. Fed will be tightening its interest policy
    - Prospect of heightening domestic terror activities
    - U.S. debt ceiling problem and its impact on meeting debt obligations
    - Biden's quandary in getting key funding legislation passed

    Other than that, I'm an optimist!

    Now you have got me worried!

    Have you let the relevant authorities know about the terror threats?

  10. #7310
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    Quote Originally Posted by southerner101 View Post
    Have you let the relevant authorities know about the terror threats?
    Always make me confused when Americans worry about terror threats when thousands of Americans are killed each year by other Americans with guns.



  11. #7311
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Always make me confused when Americans worry about terror threats when thousands of Americans are killed each year by other Americans with guns.
    The domestic (U.S.) terror threats, promulgated and applauded by Donald Trump, are existential threats to our democracy and Constitution.

  12. #7312
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    The domestic (U.S.) terror threats, promulgated and applauded by Donald Trump, are existential threats to our democracy and Constitution.
    That’s a minor issue compared to all the “standard” gun deaths.

  13. #7313
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Bloomberg:

    Biden Warning Ratchets Up Jitters: Debt Ceiling Anxiety

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e?srnd=premium



    McConnell Tells Biden GOP Won’t Cooperate on Debt Limit

    By Laura Litvan
    October 4, 2021, 8:03 AM PDT Updated on October 4, 2021, 8:34 AM PDT

    Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell told President Joe Biden he should pressure Democratic leaders in Congress to go ahead and raise the debt limit on their own because the GOP won’t cooperate.
    In a letter to Biden Monday, McConnell demanded that the president “engage directly with congressional Democrats on this matter” and said Republicans will not be changing their position.










    LIVE ON BL


    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    That’s a minor issue compared to all the “standard” gun deaths.
    Says YOU!

  14. #7314
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Bloomberg:

    Biden Warning Ratchets Up Jitters: Debt Ceiling Anxiety

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...e?srnd=premium



    McConnell Tells Biden GOP Won’t Cooperate on Debt Limit

    By Laura Litvan
    October 4, 2021, 8:03 AM PDT Updated on October 4, 2021, 8:34 AM PDT

    Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell told President Joe Biden he should pressure Democratic leaders in Congress to go ahead and raise the debt limit on their own because the GOP won’t cooperate.
    In a letter to Biden Monday, McConnell demanded that the president “engage directly with congressional Democrats on this matter” and said Republicans will not be changing their position.










    LIVE ON BL


    - - - Updated - - -


    Says YOU!
    I was only drawing a comparison to the USA fear of terror attacks in the context of gun related deaths in the USA.

    Anyway, I see you are bearish. If I were older and had enough retirement funds I’d probably withdraw capital from the USA markets.

  15. #7315
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    If I were older and had enough retirement funds I’d probably withdraw capital from the USA markets.
    I am, and I did! Note: what happens in USA financial markets greatly influences what happens in global markets.

  16. #7316
    A year ago Shell shares were 953p, today they closed at 1707p…….
    Is this called completely missing the boat?
    Or still worth a punt?


    citizens bank locations

  17. #7317
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    These:
    - Increasing likelihood of rising inflation
    - Latest surge of Covid/Delta will continue hurting global economic recovery
    - Continuing disruption of supply chains
    - Sudden rise in bond yields
    - Indications that the U S. Fed will be tightening its interest policy
    - Prospect of heightening domestic terror activities
    - U.S. debt ceiling problem and its impact on meeting debt obligations
    - Biden's quandary in getting key funding legislation passed

    Other than that, I'm an optimist!
    IMO all priced in - too many have exactly the same concerns. This does not mean the market will not pull back, but if the information is widely available it's priced in.

  18. #7318
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I see that bitcoin has gone up a lot over the past weeks, that and the long-awaited US listing must be creating the best of times for Argo investors?

    How's it going?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  19. #7319
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    How's it going?
    We're all busy sorting out the next batch of options boss. Back on it as soon as they're baked.


  20. #7320
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I see that bitcoin has gone up a lot over the past weeks, that and the long-awaited US listing must be creating the best of times for Argo investors?

    How's it going?

    Gettin' ready to go to the moon with Shatner

  21. #7321
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    We're all busy sorting out the next batch of options boss. Back on it as soon as they're baked.

    Do you also do six month charts? Asking for a friend.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  22. #7322
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Do you also do six month charts?
    Nah, I get those off the shelf.



    It has occurred to me on occasion that it might be amusing/instructive to do a comparative correlation chart of all the main quoted miners against the bitcoin price, eg HUT, RIOT, MARA, HIVE etc. (Not forgetting ARB of course.)

    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Asking for a friend.
    Peter Wall, right? Don't tell me, you've got a charity wager going with him as well.

  23. #7323
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    It has occurred to me on occasion that it might be amusing/instructive to do a comparative correlation chart of all the main quoted miners against the bitcoin price, eg HUT, RIOT, MARA, HIVE etc. (Not forgetting ARB of course.)
    Which time frame do you want?

    (I have recalculated Argo into Dollars as all other instruments are quoted in Dollar. Doesn't make much of a difference, but that's just me).

    1 year:



    6 months:



    3 months:



    1 month:

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  24. #7324
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    That is some seriously impressive software. Not to mention the demonstrated ability to deploy it. (Do they do a version for the Raspberry Pi?)

    Thanks for that Raffe. The results definitely appear to merit closer inspection.

  25. #7325
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    The really interesting numbers are when you compare all the miners fundamentals. Their MCaps differ wildly when all things are considered including their hashrates, BTC/crypto holding values, debt, mining efficiency, assets on balance sheet, investments on balance sheet and other things.

    When all those things are included in the valuations, it shows that some miners are hugely over valued and others are hugely under valued.

  26. #7326
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    That is some seriously impressive software. Not to mention the demonstrated ability to deploy it. (Do they do a version for the Raspberry Pi?)

    Thanks for that Raffe. The results definitely appear to merit closer inspection.
    It's TradingView.

    Those strange patterns are because I picked BTC as the starting point. As that one trades 24/7, it puts all the other instruments on 24/7 as well which doesn't make sense as they are closed for trading most of the time.

    As an example, here is the same 3-month chart with RIOT as the 'pacemaker' and BTC as one of the comparison instruments. Much smoother for above reasons. Seems to be a data error in Argo on 29 July, the minor UK listings simply have shite coverage on the US charting tools because nobody ever trades them.



    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    The really interesting numbers are when you compare all the miners fundamentals. Their MCaps differ wildly when all things are considered including their hashrates, BTC/crypto holding values, debt, mining efficiency, assets on balance sheet, investments on balance sheet and other things.

    When all those things are included in the valuations, it shows that some miners are hugely over valued and others are hugely under valued.
    No matter how you twist it, they are all hugely overvalued.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  27. #7327
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I simply can't help myself, dipping my toes into short Tesla again here at $817.

    Been trying to be less emotional about TSLA recently (basically made some money on longs and lost some (more) money on shorts in last months), but this POS is still the bubble of the century.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  28. #7328
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I simply can't help myself, dipping my toes into short Tesla again here at $817.

    Been trying to be less emotional about TSLA recently (basically made some money on longs and lost some (more) money on shorts in last months), but this POS is still the bubble of the century.
    The question is what will pop the TSLA bubble? There is no doubt that electric cars will be the future but the mainstream oil burning brands have to react to that in due course; does TSLA have any defendable IP that will allow them to own a huge chunk of the car future as their market cap demands? I just can't see them getting the vehicle volumes to match the valuation.

  29. #7329
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The question is what will pop the TSLA bubble? There is no doubt that electric cars will be the future but the mainstream oil burning brands have to react to that in due course; does TSLA have any defendable IP that will allow them to own a huge chunk of the car future as their market cap demands? I just can't see them getting the vehicle volumes to match the valuation.
    I think the FSD scam will pop the bubble. I am pretty sure they will have to officially recall FSD within the next two weeks and there will be tens of thousands of client who will sue to get their $10k back. This, combined with further market share losses to GM, Ford and VW will fuel the decline.

    Target: sub-$100.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  30. #7330
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The question is what will pop the TSLA bubble? There is no doubt that electric cars will be the future but the mainstream oil burning brands have to react to that in due course; does TSLA have any defendable IP that will allow them to own a huge chunk of the car future as their market cap demands? I just can't see them getting the vehicle volumes to match the valuation.
    The only car you can buy in the UK with next month delivery and no compromises because of chip shortages is a Tesla Model 3.

  31. #7331
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I think the FSD scam will pop the bubble. I am pretty sure they will have to officially recall FSD within the next two weeks and there will be tens of thousands of client who will sue to get their $10k back. This, combined with further market share losses to GM, Ford and VW will fuel the decline.

    Target: sub-$100.
    Is there anything to actually recall? Isn't the promise of FSD just a promise of some future software upgrade?

  32. #7332
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    The only car you can buy in the UK with next month delivery and no compromises because of chip shortages is a Tesla Model 3.
    Because they reprogrammed their firmware so they can use non-auto chips. This will lead to a huge wave of failures in the coming months, no other auto maker would ever dream of using non-auto graded chips in any of their vehicles.

    * no compromises is also not true: Tesla removed some functionality because the related chips are not available, amongst it lumbar support in their seats.
    Last edited by Raffe; 14th October 2021 at 17:45.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  33. #7333
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Is there anything to actually recall? Isn't the promise of FSD just a promise of some future software upgrade?
    https://www.reuters.com/business/aut...ap-2021-10-13/
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  34. #7334
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    Interesting; lets see what happens on 1/11/21

  35. #7335
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    Since mid July, bitcoin has doubled its value from sub-$30k to $60k.

    Suppose that was the trade of the century for leveraged investors, like those owning MicroTragedy shares? There must be double upside to compensate for the fact that the company will go bust if BTC ever dips below $20K, right?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  36. #7336
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Since mid July, bitcoin has doubled its value from sub-$30k to $60k.

    Suppose that was the trade of the century for leveraged investors, like those owning MicroTragedy shares? There must be double upside to compensate for the fact that the company will go bust if BTC ever dips below $20K, right?
    *yawn*

  37. #7337
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingKitega View Post
    *yawn*
    Yawn as much as you like, anyone investing into this pile of garbage needs their head examined. A psycho CEO who leverages every Dollar and dime in the company into a single binary bet on bitcoin is not what becomes a listed company. Investors seem to have recognised that, as the premium has disappeared.

    FYI, during the past 3 months bitcoin has returned 100%, while MSTR has less than 50%. It was supposed to be the other way around, because of the huge leverage.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  38. #7338
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yawn as much as you like, anyone investing into this pile of garbage needs their head examined. A psycho CEO who leverages every Dollar and dime in the company into a single binary bet on bitcoin is not what becomes a listed company. Investors seem to have recognised that, as the premium has disappeared.

    FYI, during the past 3 months bitcoin has returned 100%, while MSTR has less than 50%. It was supposed to be the other way around, because of the huge leverage.
    Admire the persistence but like I said earlier this year, you're doing more harm with your constant FUD in this space - both to you (played by the general media/hype), and others that might have heeded your posts and stayed away (opportunity cost). Good luck with your day trading, but I've certainly taken whatever you post with a huge dollop of caution, and mostly done opposite.



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  39. #7339
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    Hope you managed to make some money on the underlying longs then, because you must have lost big time with fading me.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  40. #7340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Hope you managed to make some money on the underlying longs then, because you must have lost big time with fading me.
    I'd like to think I did ok with my stock picks so far. But no I didn't long your short calls in TSLA/MSTR but both companies I think will do just fine long term. I'm more in crypto last 10 months and that's eclipsed everything so far.

  41. #7341
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Good old Miles to the Argo rescue!

    Should give it a bit of a kick up the ass.

    https://twitter.com/mylesmcnulty/sta...538280448?s=21

  42. #7342
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    Not entirely relevant to the discussion, but in the past 2-3 months the number of Tesla's I've seen on the road has rocketed

    This is rural Northern Ireland btw

  43. #7343
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post

    Been trying to be less emotional about TSLA recently
    lol

  44. #7344
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    What's going on with the TSLA SP?

    Our resident expert is certain they should be on the fast train to $100 but they keep going up and up!!??

    I must say, their current SP seems totally bonkers.

    What's causing the latest pump?

  45. #7345
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    What's going on with the TSLA SP?

    Our resident expert is certain they should be on the fast train to $100 but they keep going up and up!!??

    I must say, their current SP seems totally bonkers.

    What's causing the latest pump?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  46. #7346
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Ok BTC is back near ATH but ARB is still languishing at some 35% of previous ATH. Where can ARB investors get a refund?

    #askingforafriend

  47. #7347
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Where can ARB investors get a refund?
    peter dot wall at argoblockchain dot com. You're welcome.


    Peter Wall
    CEO
    Peter was a member of the management team that founded Argo and has been responsible for day-to-day operations since the company launched.
    He’s passionate about how blockchain and cryptocurrencies can impact people’s everyday lives. Known as a guy who gets things done, Peter’s varied career includes work as a technology entrepreneur, journalist, and filmmaker. He lives in Ottawa, Canada.



  48. #7348
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Ok BTC is back near ATH but ARB is still languishing at some 35% of previous ATH. Where can ARB investors get a refund?

    #askingforafriend
    Just wait until bitcoin drops by 80% from here. Argo will be gone and delisted before half of that has happened.

    But the good news is that peter dot wall at argoblockchain dot com will have his stash put away in good old fiat money on a Swiss bank account.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

  49. #7349
    Evergrande not going away

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  50. #7350
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Covered my short TSLA before the Q3 results yesterday at $863, then bought $900/$950 call spreads and $820/$770 put spreads - only the put spread order never went through because I did a mistake.

    Kicked myself all night and morning when TSLA was trading at $850s, thinking I screwed up my trade badly.

    But then, magically the stock jumped almost $50 within minutes of its opening and I have sold half of my calls for a 100% gain and sitting on the rest. Actually looking for a new attempt at all-time high (top of day so far $0.40 below high from January) and will sell rest of calls and go short again.

    Crazy times.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

    Terry McAuliffe

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