Reply With QuoteGreat list, thanks for that. A lot of good stuff in there. I shall follow it religiously.Originally Posted by Raffe
Remember Archegos?
Credit Suisse did today release their 172-page internal report about risk management failures leading to the debacle. At least they get a good read for their $5.5 billion.
https://archive.ph/U14l8
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Great list, thanks for that. A lot of good stuff in there. I shall follow it religiously.
NKLA in trouble: https://www.sec.gov/news/press-relea...ce=govdelivery
Well NKLA has been in trouble since last year, and the stock has already suffered for Trevor's lies (remember Hindenburg, we discussed it at length in this thread at the time). Since Trevor has left the company already last year, this shouldn't have a material impact on the stock - but then I have been struggling to understand what about NKLA justifies that it still trades at a $5bln market cap. Maybe the last of the faithful are leaving the ship now? For me, this company is a donut, and has been for a long time.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
HOOD now past $50. Wonder if its an orchestrated pump?
Will probably get heavily shorted from here.
Bloody hell. Robinhood hit $84!!
Some serious pumping!!
One for Raffe
Sent from my moto g(7) plus using Tapatalk
I moved away from Moto.One for Raffe
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Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
For the record, I sold the SP500 short at 4,440. Looking for a couple of hundred points down.
Maybe I am wrong and the dip must be bought once again, but I have a feeling the next one could be a bigger one.
Also tempted to short bitcoin, but holding off for the moment.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Yesterday I evaluated the 20 or so stocks/funds in my retirement portfolio. I ended up dumping three non-performers and adding two possible stars. Since I cashed in my winnings on those cheap airline stocks, my picks have only performed so-so. Time for a change.
Same here, very poor trading results during the last three months, to the point that I have put almost whole portfolio in cash.
Thinking that we need a new trigger for some action, looking at China and the looming Evergrande default/restructuring as a candidate. Could become wobbly.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Will the new $1.1tn spending in infrastructure and the continued global money printing not keep it all afloat for longer and longer?
I concluded that the crash will only be a possibility once the governments all start tapering their QE.
Hopefully there won't be any destabilising event in the mid-east/Indian subcontinent that raises the risk of a humanitarian crisis and terrorism.....
Oops.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Argo Blockchain's journey to £4 has taken the leap I've been waiting for.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5473-11_f1.htm
Pick all the holes you can, Raffe. (I'm sure there are a few. The dilution is not ideal, but it's pretty standard for a Nasdaq listing.)
ETA - That F1 document is longer than the bible! Do people have to read and digest every word!??
Last edited by mr noble; 19th August 2021 at 21:27.
Not sure I have seen secondary listings with a combined capital increase before, but what do I know. The dilution is manageable and they certainly need the cash, so I would say that is rather positive news (provided they can sell at a decent price, which I don't have much doubts about).
What would concern me if I was long the stock that it has been falling during the past weeks while bitcoin and other cryptos were rallying. Some bigger accounts selling out, me thinks. After all, there is a lot of 'believe' in the share price, it could easily fall a lot and still be richly valued.
Good luck with your journey to 400p, my target remains at zero.
The risk disclosures are something to behold, all 50 (!!!) pages of them. Wow.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
This is actually a disaster no? Going to be a huge diluted fund raise at a discount, just like the directors did before but now on a larger scale.
Is it?
$75 mio (before overallotment) is a good 10% dilution - but $75 mio on the account is crucial.
What the directors did was criminal: sell all their shares at the top while publicly pumping the stock.
Just checked: they replaced the full board of directors in July. What???
Last edited by Raffe; 19th August 2021 at 22:14.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
One for you, Greg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ense-photonics
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Oooo, that could be big news tomorrow.
I bought another 2500 shares this afternoon, on the dip.
(Also bought a load more TIGR @ $13.10)
Longer term, a Nasdaq listing and $75m in the bank with which to build their 200mw Texas data centre, ought to bring a massive uptick.
They didnt replace the board of directors, they created one. Theyve brought some seriously top quality staff on board. Proper top flight people. £4 here we come. 😃
ARB is up a whole 3% on that news. TBH I hope it pumps as I am back in the stock but in a much smaller way than before. I bought back in at 118p so if it goes to 400p that would be very handy indeed
Massive uptick this morning, have to give it to you:
They obviously had a board of directors or would have been in breach of requirements for a public limited company. They paid the old board (here a screenshot from the Wayback machine from one months ago) millions and then they replaced them all but one from one month to the other - with just a small news item on the website (interestingly this wasn't pushed out through all the marketing channels as they usually do). Very odd and probably cost a lot of money in redundancies again, only 20 months after they did the same with the former board. I suppose the old directors needed to be removed because they weren't good enough for the due diligence of US institutional investors. I am curious for director remuneration and share dealings in their upcoming regulatory filings. This stinks big time.
Not sure why you think the new directors are top flight people? They are certainly a more modern board (replacing the sad old white men with younger women), but none of them have any big credentials as company directors or executives. They may prove to be good, but they certainly aren't top flight people.
And now, onwards to 400p. Only 277p to go.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
To be fair, I did say that I expect an uptick after they’ve listed on Nasdaq and built the new facility in Texas. That’s a good 12-18 months away. Obviously the news in this last RNS was already expected so priced in.
Also, they did release an RNS, tweet and Peter Wall did a video giving a full intro to the new team and saying farewell to the outgoing members. (Who probably retired now they’ve made millions!)
So they did release the news via all their usual methods.
https://youtu.be/TUNTFR5a8vI
I never knew that is how being a director works: Being appointed, getting a truckload of shares, pump the stock and sell to bagholders, then retire for the next generation of directors to do the same.
I must be doing something fundamentally wrong then.
I know that nothing will be able to taint your rose-tinted view of Argo, let's wait for the remuneration/holdings disclosure and determine then how much of the new-found riches will have to be deployed into this board about-face. If they continue to replace the board every one and a half years, that'll be a material drag on future performance. But what do I know about corporate governance?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Finished the day up rather more.
Yep Happy Days. BTC could hit above 150 this weekend so let's see.Finished the day up rather more.
Lawyers, innit.
Whilst MicroStrategy might not be the best yardstick I've just run a comparison of its recent correlation with BTC, alongside that of Argo Blockchain's using a 40 day moving window. If I've got it right then it would appear to provide some degree of support for your observation.
(It was a wet Saturday afternoon here in rural Worcestershire if you hadn't already guessed.)
Maybe the old directors needed to dump their stock...?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Took profits on ARB at 140p. May go up past 150p but with volatility I'm sure I'll get a chance to buy in Sub 100p again soon. Rinse and repeat
And now all up and running by the look of it.
https://www.microstrategy.com/conten...08-24-2021.pdf
Have to give it to them: if they managed to sell at an average of $753.21 then they pretty much top-ticked it and screwed a maximum amount of their bagholders.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
The fall could be massive
Care to explain the graph you have shared?The fall could be massive
What does it say, what do you expect to happen next and what exactly could be falling massively and why?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
This is a decent explanation of what that graph is referring to (re the REPO/Reverse REPO market)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=H_wwzyAGPZw
The fear is that this amount of liquidity needed to prop the whole thing up isn't sustainable and/or could trigger hyperinflation.
Last edited by ryanb741; 30th August 2021 at 14:52.
I know what a repo is.
Is the above graph showing liquidity that is provided or something for which liquidity needs to be provided? Why is this linked to hyperinflation? And again, what could be falling massively?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Well obviously I'm a stable genius but not an economist but that being said assuming that graph is an indicator of money in the market, and the upward pointing line indicating lots of it in the market then more money in the market = less value of that money vs the same number of goods in the market = increase in the price of these goods. Now with reverse repo it could be that this is also an indication of banks buying treasuries to stash away excess cash but in any case so much liquidity has inflationary risks associated with it
You said: "The fall could be massive"
What is it that we should expect to fall?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Well if inflation is too high one would expect central bank action in the form of increasing interest rates and curtailing market liquidity which in an economy propped up on low interest rates and printed money could see a huge drop on equity valuations as a result. Many equities have all time high P/E ratios which has been explained away as specific to the low interest rate/high liquidity market we operate in. What if it no longer is a low interest rate/high liquidity market?
Wow.
All that you see in that chart?
You know what I see? The Fed is busy using reverse repos in order to put a floor under interest rates as excess liquidity is pressuring overnight interest rates.
The rest is the conclusion of some reddit economist hyperventilating about hyperinflation, repeated on a watch forum by somebody who has no clue what he is talking about.
Now put your money where your mouth is: what is your target price for your choice of S&P500 or FTSE100 for 31/12/2021? £50 charity bet?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Well let's see.
I'll take the bet. S&P at or above 4700 on 31/12/2021
You don't seem to be too concerned about a massive fall in equities then?
Alright, I take the lower side of the bet.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Nope because I have a cunning plan to sell just before the drop and buy just before the rise. ;)You don't seem to be too concerned about a massive fall in equities then?
Great idea!
You should work in money management.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Ryan, Raffe - love that little financial battle, you tried Ryan but from this side you got owned
Food for thought: https://twitter.com/crescatkevin/sta...92834456686595
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Indeed thanks Raffe...interesting debt comparison with 2000, today it's at almost 6 times higher...bubblicious, stagflation around the corner?
I don't know, people always going for the extremes: hyperinflation, Japan-style deflation, stock market crash. Maybe it's neither one of them, just a few years of a volatile sideways consolidation? It's called a 'correction in time', just let time catch up with the exuberance.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
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