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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #7051
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    If you’d like a bet…..


    I bet that Argo hits £4 before the end of the year.

    That’s it. If it gets to 400p at any point before 2022,
    I win. If not, I lose.

    £30 bet anyone? To the fundraiser on New Year’s Eve.
    Good for 500 pounds?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  2. #7052
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Good for 500 pounds?
    We’re not all millionaire day traders mate.

  3. #7053
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    What would the impact be on markets if proper and verifiable disclosure proving the existence of extra-terrestrial aircraft visiting earth was announced? I guess there's no benchmark for this!

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  4. #7054
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    What would the impact be on markets if proper and verifiable disclosure proving the existence of extra-terrestrial aircraft visiting earth was announced? I guess there's no benchmark for this!
    Defence stocks up?

  5. #7055
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    What would the impact be on markets if proper and verifiable disclosure proving the existence of extra-terrestrial aircraft visiting earth was announced? I guess there's no benchmark for this!

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    Have you been on the whacky backy again, Ryan?

  6. #7056
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    It's official



    Thanks to Ryan for his sportsmanship and good humour over the 'bet'. (Along with the £50 fund raiser contribution, of course.) Also to Raffe for his enlightened commentary.

  7. #7057
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Have you been on the whacky backy again, Ryan?
    Ha!

    Sounds like it but I've never touched that stuff in my life! Thank goodness as I'm weird enough as it is. Re the alien disclosure stuff, let's see. Reckon this year is as good as any ;)

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  8. #7058
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Are you angling for a bet with Raffe that ET will arrive by Christmas?

  9. #7059
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Are you angling for a bet with Raffe that ET will arrive by Christmas?
    Done.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  10. #7060
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    We’re not all millionaire day traders mate.
    50?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  11. #7061
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Ok. £50.

  12. #7062
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    If you’d like a bet…..


    I bet that Argo hits £4 before the end of the year.

    That’s it. If it gets to 400p at any point before 2022,
    I win. If not, I lose.

    £30 bet anyone? To the fundraiser on New Year’s Eve.
    Ok, 50 quid, 31 December 2021.

    400p.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  13. #7063
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Ok, 50 quid, 31 December 2021.

    400p.
    Just to check, it could be 0p on 31/12/21 but if it has hit 400p at some point before that Mr noble wins?

  14. #7064
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Ok, 50 quid, 31 December 2021.

    400p.

    We need Pete the Greek to do a funky chart!

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ernestrome View Post
    Just to check, it could be 0p on 31/12/21 but if it has hit 400p at some point before that Mr noble wins?
    Correct.

  15. #7065
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ernestrome View Post
    Just to check, it could be 0p on 31/12/21 but if it has hit 400p at some point before that Mr noble wins?
    Haha, yes that's the bet.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  16. #7066
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    If anyone else wants to join, I will do more.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  17. #7067
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quick question - all things being equal is a Fund with a Net Asset Value higher than current fund price typically considered good value? Logic would dictate that it is but then logic doesn't always pervade in financial markets.

  18. #7068
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Quick question - all things being equal is a Fund with a Net Asset Value higher than current fund price typically considered good value? Logic would dictate that it is but then logic doesn't always pervade in financial markets.
    All in.


    On a serious note: if all things would be equal, the fund wouldn't trade at a discount in the first place. Find the reason why it does and then do your own assessment if that reason is justified and how much money you want to risk to find out if your analysis was correct.

    Same as buying any stock or fund.
    Last edited by Raffe; 1st July 2021 at 07:10.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  19. #7069
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Ha!

    Sounds like it but I've never touched that stuff in my life! Thank goodness as I'm weird enough as it is.
    Sometimes it can 'balance you out'

    One for the bucket list :-)

  20. #7070
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    If you’d like a bet…..


    I bet that Argo hits £4 before the end of the year.

    That’s it. If it gets to 400p at any point before 2022,
    I win. If not, I lose.

    £30 bet anyone? To the fundraiser on New Year’s Eve.
    Anyone else who want to take this bet with me? C'mon, it's for charity.

    I match any amount.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  21. #7071
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I doubt anyone else is as hopeful/deluded/optimistic as me.

    I think I may need Elon's help to win the bet.

  22. #7072
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I doubt anyone else is as hopeful/deluded/optimistic as me.

    I think I may need Elon's help to win the bet.
    Its up 9% today! still a long way to go

  23. #7073
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Rumour has it that it was Colin Kaepernick...

    This will make a lot of waves in national press tomorrow: https://twitter.com/meiselasb/status...41707985641472
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  24. #7074
    The s&p 500 rally keeps on going it’s reached a new high of 4,319, it’s on a remarkable run!

    Isn’t the P/E ratio an indicator of the value of the stock market and at 45, it seems overpriced by historical standards.

    https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio
    Last edited by jonny; 2nd July 2021 at 00:45.

  25. #7075
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    A long way to go before it beats the 2009 all time high of 123.

  26. #7076
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    This is trailing earnings, that chart makes no sense - as proven by the 2009 reading. It is comparing last year's earnings with this year's stock prices, which obviously runs into a problem when the economy emerges from a recession (and last year's earnings are very low, while the stock market powers ahead pricing in future earnings potential). Similar pictures this year, last year's earnings are depressed while the market is looking forward.

    I am not saying the market isn't expensive and it may very well correct substantially very soon, but this chart is garbage.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  27. #7077
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    Raffe, are you in this video somewhere? Lolz

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CQ08O8TjVdG/

  28. #7078
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Raffe, are you in this video somewhere? Lolz

    https://www.instagram.com/p/CQ08O8TjVdG/
    Somewhere.

    Difficult week, been severely beaten up and lost two months of winnings in three days.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  29. #7079
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    This is trailing earnings, that chart makes no sense - as proven by the 2009 reading. It is comparing last year's earnings with this year's stock prices, which obviously runs into a problem when the economy emerges from a recession (and last year's earnings are very low, while the stock market powers ahead pricing in future earnings potential). Similar pictures this year, last year's earnings are depressed while the market is looking forward.

    I am not saying the market isn't expensive and it may very well correct substantially very soon, but this chart is garbage.

    I know the chart isn’t accurate as it is based on previous years earnings (even so it’s 3 times mean average)The point being s&p 500 is now 30% higher then it was pre-Covid, do you not think the market is overpriced/expensive?

  30. #7080
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    I know the chart isn’t accurate as it is based on previous years earnings (even so it’s 3 times mean average)The point being s&p 500 is now 30% higher then it was pre-Covid, do you not think the market is overpriced/expensive?
    As I said, i am not saying the market is fairly valued. I am just saying that chart is garbage.

    The market has seen unprecedented liquidity thrown at it, and it also has seen an unprecedented inflow of new traders. There was only one direction this could go.

    But at one point reality will kick back in. There are many reasons for caution and I believe we are close to a cycle high around here. We have seen a few corrections already during the past months, but every time there were tons of money buying the dip. Let's see how the next dip develops. Maybe the buyers just don't show up. Maybe they do. Who knows?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #7081
    'Nonce Finance'

    What?

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  32. #7082
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    'Nonce Finance'

    What?

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    Creating solutions for problems which never existed.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #7083
    Master petethegeek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    'Nonce Finance'

    What?


    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/...22415132143616

  34. #7084
    Lol

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  35. #7085
    FTSE plummets as inflation fears return

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  36. #7086
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    FTSE plummets as inflation fears return

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    Inflation fears? On which planet? Bond yields are in free fall.

    US 10 year at 1.26%, lowest since February.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  37. #7087
    Dunno was just quoting The Telegraph

    And anyway 'plummets' is back 3 weeks

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  38. #7088
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Are our inflation sceptics still confident inflation won't be a major factor in the markets moving forward?

  39. #7089
    Not really not when a my mortgage is 1.4%

    Tbh my spare cash is now in a little bitcoin mining operation and the rest in tracker funds so I'm gliding towards the bitcoin thread, so will leave this one, I've met some wonderful people so a bit sad to the moon!

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  40. #7090
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Are our inflation sceptics still confident inflation won't be a major factor in the markets moving forward?
    Regardless of the markets inflation is real. I’m seeing it both personally and professionally. Everything is getting more expensive. Especially construction materials.

  41. #7091
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Regardless of the markets inflation is real. I’m seeing it both personally and professionally. Everything is getting more expensive. Especially construction materials.
    You are looking backwards.

    This is what happens when we are coming out of a crisis, especially when demand is accelerating while manufacturing has not seen any investments last year (because everybody was saving). There is real capacity shortage and that is driving prices.

    But that is happening every time after a recession and should be expected to be very pronounced after the biggest recession in mankind's history - even if it was short-lived due to massive government intervention.

    What counts is if we have inflation next year - and I see no reason to believe that.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  42. #7092
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    With inflation rising and the FTSE falling, where is the best place to put your money ?

  43. #7093
    Quote Originally Posted by Spy View Post
    With inflation rising and the FTSE falling, where is the best place to put your money ?
    FTSE what?

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  44. #7094
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spy View Post
    With inflation rising and the FTSE falling, where is the best place to put your money ?


    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  45. #7095
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Spy View Post
    With inflation rising and the FTSE falling, where is the best place to put your money ?
    The textbooks would say you should buy commodities and tangible assets like Rolex and fine art, along with gold and precious metals.

    However, as with many things this last 18 months, the textbooks have been proven wrong.

    Ryan’s suggestion may just prove to be the winner!

  46. #7096
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    Doge coin ? Really, put ourselves at the mercy of Elon ?

  47. #7097
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You are looking backwards.

    This is what happens when we are coming out of a crisis, especially when demand is accelerating while manufacturing has not seen any investments last year (because everybody was saving). There is real capacity shortage and that is driving prices.

    But that is happening every time after a recession and should be expected to be very pronounced after the biggest recession in mankind's history - even if it was short-lived due to massive government intervention.

    What counts is if we have inflation next year - and I see no reason to believe that.
    Well I hope you are correct.

  48. #7098
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    The textbooks would say you should buy commodities and tangible assets like Rolex and fine art, along with gold and precious metals.

    However, as with many things this last 18 months, the textbooks have been proven wrong.

    Ryan’s suggestion may just prove to be the winner!
    How exactly has that been proven wrong in the last 18 months?

    I am not going to comment on the dogturd suggestion.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  49. #7099
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    I wonder how much of the inflation is based on much lower prices during the pandemic? I.e what would a 2 year average look like?

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  50. #7100
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I wonder how much of the inflation is based on much lower prices during the pandemic? I.e what would a 2 year average look like?

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    Exactly , also what's going to happen soon when 2m don't have furlough money to spend and many are unemployed?

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