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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #5801
    Craftsman Chris H's Avatar
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    Whats happened to Hiscox this morning?

  2. #5802
    FTSE loving the Rishi leaks

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  3. #5803
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chris H View Post
    Whats happened to Hiscox this morning?
    "The stock was down more than 9% at 893.10 pence in early training as Panmure Gordon analyst Ming Zhu said the results highlighted a ďslower than anticipated recoveryĒ.

  4. #5804
    Interesting article in the Washington post comparing SPACs to buying a pig in a poke. I suppose it depends on whether you're happy to buy the wriggling or you're interested in what animal will eventually be found inside.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opini...873_story.html


    Opinion by
    Charles Lane
    Editorial writer and columnist
    March 2, 2021 at 10:14 p.m. GMT

    Add to list
    In medieval England, cunning merchants would sell closed sacks containing live animals, assuring customers that the squirming critter was a valuable piglet. By the time credulous buyers got home and discovered a cat instead, unscrupulous vendors would be long gone, having gotten away with selling “a pig in a poke” — “poke” being an archaic synonym for “bag.”

    No one could get away with such a thing today, could they? While not precisely analogous to that old English scam, Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs), do base their business model on the undeniable fact that some investors will take a shot at a big payoff, even if it’s a shot in the dark.

    Rapidly superseding “traditional” initial public offerings as the funding mechanism for would-be electric vehicle makers and other “unicorn” start-ups, SPACs work like this. First, a group of sponsors pools their money in a shell company. Next, they sell shares in that company through an IPO, promising investors to use the proceeds to buy another company, usually within the next two years.

    People who purchase a SPAC’s stock can’t know much about the potential merger partner except that it will be a start-up with a hot idea — and, sometimes, too little time, or demonstrated business viability, to go through even the limited vetting an IPO of its own would have entailed.

    So far in 2021, 160 SPACs have raised $48.3 billion. That’s half of 2020’s record annual total of $82.5 billion — which was four times the 2019 total, according to a CNN report.

    Obviously, attracting investors depends on inspiring their trust. Sponsors of brand-new SPACs, however, lack even the minimal track record of those that sprang up and executed mergers in the past two years. So, they burnish their credentials by recruiting famous formers from politics and major-league sports.

    Former House speaker and 2012 Republican vice-presidential nominee Paul D. Ryan is associated with a SPAC, as are ex-Yankee slugger Alex Rodriguez and NBA hall of famer Shaquille O’Neal.

    Social justice activist and former NFL star Colin Kaepernick is also involved with a SPAC, which has pledged to “invest in and grow a business in a way that delivers a significant impact financially, culturally and socially.” The Kaepernick SPAC seeks to raise $287.5 million, a typical sum for one of these entities.

    article continues

  5. #5805
    Interesting comparison. Could SPACs be the next PPI? Lolz

  6. #5806
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    SPACs. They're like a big boy version of Kickstarter. What's not to like?

  7. #5807
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    SPACs. They're like a big boy version of Kickstarter. What's not to like?
    If there is one thing I have learned in 2020, then it's go with the flow. I have bought funky shares like Tesla or Gamestop, invested in a good number of SPACs and many other things I would have never considered earlier. My returns have been better for it.

    There will be a time when common sense takes over again in the financial markets, but I wouldn't advise on holding your breath. Until then, best to go with the flow.









    * obviously, you may ask me why I refuse to buy bitcoin if going with the flow is my best advice. Well, I will forever feed off the day when I almost bought bitcoin on Thanksgiving Day (to be clear, I have bought and sold bitcoin a few times before, but given the underlying amount of bitcoin futures is 5 BTC, never with the intention to hold for more than intraday trading position). But even if, I would buy bitcoin to go with a short-term flow and never because I'd believe it was going anywhere because for any fundamental reasons.

  8. #5808

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    One thing I will learn for the future is to throw money indiscriminately at a raging bull market.

    All that matters is you hit the dart board.

    You donít need any investment skills whatsoever to make money under these circumstances.

  9. #5809
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    Blimey Caesar crossed the Rubicon.

  10. #5810
    Most of the shares I am tracking on HL are in the red again today. INO is down, keep hoping it goes up but just keeps dropping :-(

  11. #5811
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    Donít let your head rule your heart Raffe ó just buy some bitcoin and hodl with the
    rest of us :-)

  12. #5812
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    Same. Time to remind myself that I'm in it medium-to-long term for the most part and stop looking at the market for a bit.

    For INO specifically, it'll probably level off now and bounce around a little bit with the market, but nothing significant will happen until they announce a breakthrough in their medical trials or get FDA approval. It will tank further if they don't in the latter case. So it's probably a question of deciding whether you are happy to hold on that basis, or whether you would prefer to cut any losses and reinvest in something you believe is a better idea.

  13. #5813
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I think it’s finally time I played with the TIGR. Grrrrrr.

  14. #5814
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Bought INO and
    #Technoking

  15. #5815
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Was thinking of doubling down on INo. I only put £5k in so could add another £5k and then only need to see $12.50 to be up.

  16. #5816
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    Treat this like you have all been chatting about INO and I walk in the room and say - so whats the deal with INO?

    So what is the deal with INO??

  17. #5817
    Master Bernard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I think itís finally time I played with the TIGR. Grrrrrr.
    Great moment to buy, approx 21.4 usd atm....

  18. #5818
    what even is today O.o...

  19. #5819
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Was thinking of doubling down on INo. I only put £5k in so could add another £5k and then only need to see $12.50 to be up.
    Just curious, when you trade on HL do you normally order specific number of shares or just select an amount of money?

  20. #5820
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I am lost.

    Looked like a picture-book setup for gap up and runaway markets today - and now everything lower again. Was sitting on a huge profit yesterday with my S&P calls, which have almost evaporated overnight. No huge net effect as Tesla puts are making up for it, but still baffled and lost for ideas how to trade this. Frustrating, keep going two steps forward and two steps back.
    Raffe your Tesla short must've paid off today...

  21. #5821
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Treat this like you have all been chatting about INO and I walk in the room and say - so whats the deal with INO?

    So what is the deal with INO??
    https://forum.tz-uk.com/showthread.p...=1#post5687103


    Quote Originally Posted by tommyzzj View Post
    Raffe your Tesla short must've paid off today...
    Lost on Monday, won back yesterday and today. Other way around with S&P position. Two step forward, two steps back.

    And then don't get me started about the pounding that the momentum stocks took. Ugly.

    In the end, a rather poor week.

  22. #5822
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Bought INO @ $9.40 (on IBKR as itís not on HL)

    Bought TIGR @ $21.50

  23. #5823
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Anyone know why SMT is getting totally Bukkake'd this week? Too much froth in the stocks it holds?

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  24. #5824
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Sold my Argo today and set an order to buy at 260.

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  25. #5825
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Just curious, when you trade on HL do you normally order specific number of shares or just select an amount of money?
    I imagine everyone has their own preferences. For me, it depends whether the buy is a longer term keeper or a short term money maker.

    If itís a keeper, my OCD means I have to own nice round numbers of shares, if itís a punt, I like to spend a certain amount, so you know where you are at a glance.

    The FX issue makes that tricky. HL is quite annoying in that respect as everything they show in your own portfolio is in GBP. But obviously the foreign listed stocks and funds are shown in their native currency.

    For example, I just bought TIGR at around $21.50, but my HL transaction sheet shows it as a buy at £15.10 or something like that. Which is a bit tricky to work with.

    IBKR on the other hand is a tad annoying as it wonít let you buy a dollar stock if youíve not got enough dollars in your account. You might have £10,000gbp in there but you canít use that to buy INO or TSLA. You have to do an FX trade first and then use your USD to buy US stocks.
    HL does all that for you behind the scenes. They probably also take a slice of the transaction fees.


    One thing I have come to realise in the last few months......I prefer passive trackers that you have to look at every 6 months instead of all this trading malarkey that youíre looking at every 6 minutes.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Sold my Argo today and set an order to buy at 260.

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
    Might not see 260 for months! ;-)

  26. #5826
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Anyone know why SMT is getting totally Bukkake'd this week? Too much froth in the stocks it holds?

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk


    SMT is mega tech heavy. It tracks the NASDAQ quite closely. If you overlay the two charts, they’re very similar.
    So when the NASDAQ takes a dip, so does SMT.


    I do think they lightened their load on TSLA last week though, so was expecting less of a pull back.

    No idea why tech stocks fell today though. The Chinese minister for finance said he though it was all overvalued yesterday, so maybe that was the main driver.




    ETA - I'm not overly worried about SMT. I have about 65% of my SIPP and savings in there and am now down about 12% on it all, but the underlying stocks are all very good bluechip global companies. They're not about to go bust or have their share prices halve. And as there are 60-70 companies that make up the fund, even if one or two do really struggle, overall, they should carry on making profits and growing. So it may take a week/month/year to get back up and into profit, but it will happen.

    I guess that's the beauty of a big well managed fund or a passive tracker, over individual stocks (or Bitcoin!)
    Last edited by mr noble; 3rd March 2021 at 21:28.

  27. #5827
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I imagine everyone has their own preferences. For me, it depends whether the buy is a longer term keeper or a short term money maker.

    If itís a keeper, my OCD means I have to own nice round numbers of shares, if itís a punt, I like to spend a certain amount, so you know where you are at a glance.

    The FX issue makes that tricky. HL is quite annoying in that respect as everything they show in your own portfolio is in GBP. But obviously the foreign listed stocks and funds are shown in their native currency.

    For example, I just bought TIGR at around $21.50, but my HL transaction sheet shows it as a buy at £15.10 or something like that. Which is a bit tricky to work with.

    IBKR on the other hand is a tad annoying as it wonít let you buy a dollar stock if youíve not got enough dollars in your account. You might have £10,000gbp in there but you canít use that to buy INO or TSLA. You have to do an FX trade first and then use your USD to buy US stocks.
    HL does all that for you behind the scenes. They probably also take a slice of the transaction fees.


    One thing I have come to realise in the last few months......I prefer passive trackers that you have to look at every 6 months instead of all this trading malarkey that youíre looking at every 6 minutes.

    - - - Updated - - -



    Might not see 260 for months! ;-)
    With IBKR you can very well buy Dollar stocks without having Dollars on your account - just that it involves an overdraft facility and as such you need to sign the margin trading agreement. They will never do a hidden transaction behind the scenes, they are a professional broker which operates like a prime broker. You get all the tools but you decide for yourself whether you want to trade against overdraft (no currency risk) or whether you want to buy the Dollars and expose yourself to currency fluctuation.

  28. #5828
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I imagine everyone has their own preferences. For me, it depends whether the buy is a longer term keeper or a short term money maker.

    If itís a keeper, my OCD means I have to own nice round numbers of shares, if itís a punt, I like to spend a certain amount, so you know where you are at a glance.
    I know what you mean. I haven't found one platform without its issues. I do wish when buying an amount in cash HL would tell you how many shares the transaction would be before you commit.

    The currency conversion can be a bit OCD, I don't know why you can't switch between seeing shares in £ or $. It would be a lot easier.

  29. #5829
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    With IBKR you can very well buy Dollar stocks without having Dollars on your account - just that it involves an overdraft facility and as such you need to sign the margin trading agreement. They will never do a hidden transaction behind the scenes, they are a professional broker which operates like a prime broker. You get all the tools but you decide for yourself whether you want to trade against overdraft (no currency risk) or whether you want to buy the Dollars and expose yourself to currency fluctuation.
    Ahh, thank you, that explains it. Iím not allowed to trade on margin and donít really want to take the tutorial to allow it as it could be dangerous when Iíve had wine.

    On a similar note, do you know why I cannot buy GBTC? I have spent weeks assuming I could buy anything on IBKR, especially all the stuff thatís banned on HL, like Bitcoin funds, but when I tried to buy GBTC the other day (at $41) it wouldnít allow it. And annoyingly, it didnít give a specific reason....it just says ďyou are not allowed to buy this stock with your permissions.Ē

    Iíve no idea if thatís because I havenít yet got permission to trade the FX/CFD stuff, or if itís that Iím in the UK and our authorities banned UK residents from buying BTC derivatives from 1st Jan 2021.

    I was going to email you to ask if you knew, Raffe.

  30. #5830
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    I know what you mean. I haven't found one platform without its issues. I do wish when buying an amount in cash HL would tell you how many shares the transaction would be before you commit.

    The currency conversion can be a bit OCD, I don't know why you can't switch between seeing shares in £ or $. It would be a lot easier.

    You have to hit the ďbuyĒ button to see that info. I guess it cannot work out both the amount and cost of the shares until it gives you a proper quote.

    You get 15 seconds to commit to the trade when you hit the buy button, so you donít need to panic that itíll go ahead and trade.

    I sometimes get 50 quotes before I get to a price Iím happy with, especially when buying AIM stocks that jump about all over the place.

    I bought some QFI yesterday and upon 1st press of the ďbuyĒ button, I got quoted 3.19p and after about 6 more tries, I eventually bought at 2.84p. An amazing %age difference just for hitting the requote button a few times whilst watching the 1 minute candle chart on another screen. 👍🏼

  31. #5831
    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    I know what you mean. I haven't found one platform without its issues. I do wish when buying an amount in cash HL would tell you how many shares the transaction would be before you commit.

    The currency conversion can be a bit OCD, I don't know why you can't switch between seeing shares in £ or $. It would be a lot easier.
    Why is number of shares important?

  32. #5832
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Ahh, thank you, that explains it. Iím not allowed to trade on margin and donít really want to take the tutorial to allow it as it could be dangerous when Iíve had wine.

    On a similar note, do you know why I cannot buy GBTC? I have spent weeks assuming I could buy anything on IBKR, especially all the stuff thatís banned on HL, like Bitcoin funds, but when I tried to buy GBTC the other day (at $41) it wouldnít allow it. And annoyingly, it didnít give a specific reason....it just says ďyou are not allowed to buy this stock with your permissions.Ē

    Iíve no idea if thatís because I havenít yet got permission to trade the FX/CFD stuff, or if itís that Iím in the UK and our authorities banned UK residents from buying BTC derivatives from 1st Jan 2021.

    I was going to email you to ask if you knew, Raffe.
    The GBTC is listed on the pink sheets rather than a proper exchange (NYSE or Nasdaq), might be the reason you cannot buy? I can enter orders no problem (but only 9:00h - 16:00h EST as the pink sheets have no extended hours trading).

    You will also find that you cannot trade QQQ or any of the other popular US ETFs - reason being that those funds are not registered for sale outside of the US (funds in Europe need to comply with the UCITS standard). But what you can do is trade a CFD on the ETF, which fixes the gap.

  33. #5833
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Itís not a listing issue as I can see it and begin to place an order. But when I ďsubmitĒ I get this......

    Itís annoying that they do not tel me which permission I donít have, as there are a dozen permission that you need in order to trade all the different types of things, like margin, options, CFDs and FX etc. I have no idea what the issue is.


  34. #5834
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Itís not a listing issue as I can see it and begin to place an order. But when I ďsubmitĒ I get this......

    Itís annoying that they do not tel me which permission I donít have, as there are a dozen permission that you need in order to trade all the different types of things, like margin, options, CFDs and FX etc. I have no idea what the issue is.
    As I said, it's the permission to trade on the pink sheets (aka OTC or penny stocks). You need to get it, it's not standard.

    https://www.interactivebrokers.eu/en...ingpermissions


  35. #5835
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    I donít trade much, well not this year but have found IG quite reliable, itís a bit weird but I like rounding up shares, saying that all my investments are random amounts now mainly due to recent rights issues.

  36. #5836

  37. #5837
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    Working my way through IBKR. Sorted out 2fa today and access to penny stocks and pink sheets I hope. Will try a trade tomorrow.

    Raffe, where is the best place to get the OTC tickers for stocks? Or is it using the normal ticker out of hours?

  38. #5838
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mangoosian View Post
    Working my way through IBKR. Sorted out 2fa today and access to penny stocks and pink sheets I hope. Will try a trade tomorrow.

    Raffe, where is the best place to get the OTC tickers for stocks? Or is it using the normal ticker out of hours?
    Ticker never changes.

    Don't mix up OTC with after hours.
    #Technoking

  39. #5839
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post



    Might not see 260 for months! ;-)
    Might even get matched today! ;-)

  40. #5840
    Quote Originally Posted by Kingstepper View Post
    Why is number of shares important?
    Mixture of OCD and rounding. If £500 is 10.9 shares I'd rather put in £510 to get the extra share. HL don't do fractional shares so otherwise the money for 0.9 shares just sits in your account unused.

  41. #5841
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Markets very poor technically, hanging by a thread. Need to reclaim higher levels today or may see quite a bit lower. Still don't see the big one coming, but this doesn't play according to the book and all this talk about long rates by people who two weeks ago didn't know what a bond is makes me nervous. Federal Reserve to the rescue today or we will see some blood.

    Trade carefully.

  42. #5842
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    Outstanding shares. No, not TSLA, INO, TIGR etc. I mean the number of shares in a company that are held by its owners.

    An article titled 'How to Buy Bitcoin at an 80% Premium From Michael Saylor', posted on the Yahoo!finance website yesterday, used a figure of 'nearly 10 million' and linked to the Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results. This document did indeed include a figure of 9,408,000 for the calculation of the Basic earnings (loss) per share in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.

    However the Yahoo!finance stats page for MSTR gives the number as being 7.62m. Is this likely to be simply an outdated figure, or am I missing something more fundamental?

    PS Is Lawrence Lewitinn one of your pseudonyms Raffe?

  43. #5843
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    Sorry to hear that Mr. Noble. Hopefully someone can offer some advice or perspective.

  44. #5844
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    I cashed out all my SMT this am and put it into Argo Blockchain. Go hard or go home I say

  45. #5845
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bondurant View Post
    Sorry to hear that Mr. Noble. Hopefully someone can offer some advice or perspective.
    The only advice is "Hodl". (And don't tell the wife)



    I'm sure we've all been here before.


    The odd thing is, that for the last 22 years of running my SIPP/ISA on HL, I've been 90% in boring passive tracker funds like Vanguard Life Strategy and VWRL, and with those, I'd look at the prices maybe once a week or even once a month, didn't matter, as I'm not retiring for another 2 decades.

    But since I (stupidly) started tinkering back in March 2020, it's become an obsession.

    I always used to play with some stocks and shares in a fund and share account and a little with the 10% of SIPP/ISA, but not a lot.


    SMT seemed like a good bet back in October and rode well for a while. Then I sold out to cash, fearing a market crash and missed a big hop up. Ouch. Then bought back in at 1350 on the expectation of another round of stumbles. - Ouch!

    Time will be the healer. But it'll always be a paper loss that could have been avoided.

  46. #5846
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Outstanding shares. No, not TSLA, INO, TIGR etc. I mean the number of shares in a company that are held by its owners.

    An article titled 'How to Buy Bitcoin at an 80% Premium From Michael Saylor', posted on the Yahoo!finance website yesterday, used a figure of 'nearly 10 million' and linked to the Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results. This document did indeed include a figure of 9,408,000 for the calculation of the Basic earnings (loss) per share in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.

    However the Yahoo!finance stats page for MSTR gives the number as being 7.62m. Is this likely to be simply an outdated figure, or am I missing something more fundamental?

    PS Is Lawrence Lewitinn one of your pseudonyms Raffe?


    That report makes little mention of the entire point of MicroStrategy, being that the price of Bitcoin needs to get to about $65-70k and then it's off to the moon with MSTR stock as it will be worth more than the companies market cap. The "gap" the report speaks of, will close.


    It is obviously a massive bet on BTC, but if BTC hits $100k and beyond, MSTR will outperform the underlying BTC price by a big margin. It might be in 1/2/3 years that Michael Saylor's plan starts to work. He might have lost the lot before then, mind.

  47. #5847
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I cashed out all my SMT this am and put it into Argo Blockchain. Go hard or go home I say
    That's great news, Ryan. SMT will turn the corner now and be 40% up by next weekend.

  48. #5848
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I cashed out all my SMT this am and put it into Argo Blockchain. Go hard or go home I say
    That's the spirit!

  49. #5849
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    Outstanding shares. No, not TSLA, INO, TIGR etc. I mean the number of shares in a company that are held by its owners.

    An article titled 'How to Buy Bitcoin at an 80% Premium From Michael Saylor', posted on the Yahoo!finance website yesterday, used a figure of 'nearly 10 million' and linked to the Fourth Quarter 2020 Financial Results. This document did indeed include a figure of 9,408,000 for the calculation of the Basic earnings (loss) per share in the Consolidated Statements of Operations.

    However the Yahoo!finance stats page for MSTR gives the number as being 7.62m. Is this likely to be simply an outdated figure, or am I missing something more fundamental?

    PS Is Lawrence Lewitinn one of your pseudonyms Raffe?
    Wouldn't trust the Yahoo numbers. Outstanding shares are non-trivial, as there are potential dilutions which need to be figured and there is a set of rules in GAAP how to do that. Microstrategy has at least the convertible notes issued in December ($650M) to consider, potentially other options or warrants. Normally you can rely on the accounts.

  50. #5850
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    SMT has been a disaster to be in for the last 8 days.


    60% of my entire holding and currently more than 23% down.

    Totally stuffed my plan, which was to wait out the probable jump up when the new Biden stimulus arrives, and then sell out to cash and await the storm.

    The storm came early and now it's too dangerous to sell in case you miss the hops back up, which with SMT can be 10% in a day, and the same the day after.


    Bullocks.


    Need to keep thinking about it in percentage terms as the amount in cold hard £££ is eyewatering. Not far off 10 years of pension contributions wiped out in 8 days.


    The SMT chat boards are awash with people saying things like, "I had our entire mortgage deposit for a house in SMT and now its 25% gone..."


    Just goes to show how quickly things can turn.
    I am sorry for your losses.

    I slightly regretted selling all my SMT last year (max hold was about 10% of my total Lifetime ISA) at around 900. I am still wrong by 17% about SMT! I sold it essentially based on Raffe highlighting the lack of diversification in their portfolio and their reliance on Tesla for much of the gains. As it gained another 30% I thought about the gains I could have had but OTOH I don't daytrade and so I cannot be at the computer to sell quickly if it got hit hard.

    Is it a reminder of the need to stay well diversified across your portfolio? A reminder to be cautious about stocks and funds that have had a very good run in case you get caught holding the bag.

    I must say I do not buy into the macho trader bullshit like 'go hard or go home' either.

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