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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #7351
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Shortselling Trump SPAC DWAC at $24 and $25 - buying the warrants ($11.50 strike) at $7.00 and $7.20 - what is wrong with this world?

    Free money arbitrage on the biggest stock exchange in the world????
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  2. #7352
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I have seen a lot of crazy stuff this year, but this one tops it all

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  3. #7353
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Shortselling Trump SPAC DWAC at $24 and $25 - buying the warrants ($11.50 strike) at $7.00 and $7.20 - what is wrong with this world?

    Free money arbitrage on the biggest stock exchange in the world????
    Well the free money isn't easy to reap today....

    Hit $52 in the meantime. I am hedged by owning the warrants to buy back my shorts, but it may take up to 30 days until I can exercise (a lot of small-print legalese in the SEC filings). But who said this was easy? Would have been easier to just go long and enjoy the ride, but that was an equally crazy idea. Well well.

    Suppose this has a chance of crash tomorrow, or a chance to completely go to the moon in order to squeeze out everybody who did the same trade as I did but didn't size it responsibly and might blow out before they can exercise their hedge? I have honestly no idea. Crazy times, this is 'worth' $1.8 bln now.

    Another GME/AMC situation? Plenty of people talking about it, but I still doubt it. But what do I know?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  4. #7354
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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  5. #7355
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Tesla has a R&D budget of $1.1 bln for this year, that includes their research into all of their business areas (including solar, battery and self-driving).

    Volkswagen has a budget of $16.5 bln

    Daimler: $10.21 bln

    Toyota: $9.9 bln

    Ford: $7.1 bln

    General Motors: $6.2 bln


    Calculating it per car is just showing an enormous amount for Tesla because they almost build no cars in comparison to the other firms. There is a reason Tesla is not bringing out any new models in 2021 and 2022, their flagship S model is now 9 years old without an update and none is planned.

    Data: Here and here
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #7356
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Well the free money isn't easy to reap today....

    Hit $52 in the meantime. I am hedged by owning the warrants to buy back my shorts, but it may take up to 30 days until I can exercise (a lot of small-print legalese in the SEC filings). But who said this was easy? Would have been easier to just go long and enjoy the ride, but that was an equally crazy idea. Well well.

    Suppose this has a chance of crash tomorrow, or a chance to completely go to the moon in order to squeeze out everybody who did the same trade as I did but didn't size it responsibly and might blow out before they can exercise their hedge? I have honestly no idea. Crazy times, this is 'worth' $1.8 bln now.

    Another GME/AMC situation? Plenty of people talking about it, but I still doubt it. But what do I know?
    Ooopsies. That went a bit violent.

    Fortunately I only did a small position (5% of portfolio), but still this spiralled completely out of control. At one point the regs hit $60 while the warrants were still at $12. I had somehow missed the fact that the 30 days until the warrants can be exercised start counting from the day the merger is completed, not announced. Hmm.

    I closed half of my short at $42/43 and then the rest between $54 and $57 - I am just too afraid this is going to hit $100 tomorrow. There is an unholy alliance of WSB and MAGA buying this, and no matter how dumb the suggestions in the SPAC prospectus are, they will drive this up for another day I believe. Currently just sitting on the warrants, and those have jumped from $12 to $19 during the past two hours. Need them to go to $25 to break even.

    Crazy stuff and everybody knew that one shouldn't short a meme express, just that I thought I was hedged and that didn't really work as planned. Stupid.

    Don't do this. Ever.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  7. #7357
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    $68 regs, $21 warrants
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  8. #7358
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Sold half at $25 - that was hard work.

    Now the fun.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  9. #7359
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Out at $33.88 for the rest. What a crazy trade.

    There is going to be a lot of blood on the street when this is being cleaned up.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  10. #7360
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    OMG


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  11. #7361
    Managed a quick 25% in about 15 mins and amazingly timed it just before the dump (for a change)

  12. #7362
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acg View Post
    Managed a quick 25% in about 15 mins and amazingly timed it just before the dump (for a change)
    Did you like it?

    This is what happens when a fraudulent SPAC merges with a fraudulent company and the company then gets chased around by a combination of MAGA and r/WSB. Amazing.


    Last edited by Raffe; 22nd October 2021 at 18:25.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  13. #7363
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Covered my short TSLA before the Q3 results yesterday at $863, then bought $900/$950 call spreads and $820/$770 put spreads - only the put spread order never went through because I did a mistake.

    Kicked myself all night and morning when TSLA was trading at $850s, thinking I screwed up my trade badly.

    But then, magically the stock jumped almost $50 within minutes of its opening and I have sold half of my calls for a 100% gain and sitting on the rest. Actually looking for a new attempt at all-time high (top of day so far $0.40 below high from January) and will sell rest of calls and go short again.

    Crazy times.
    Ahh completely forgot about my Tesla calls. Nice one today, though I have no idea why it should be up after the FSD update debacle over the weekend. Everybody just talking about a piece of news from Panasonic about upcoming new cell design - but Tesla has already bounced ten times on this news and was supposed to be manufacturing these cells themselves and selling them to the market. Now the news that Panasonic is introducing them and Tesla is the only auto maker interested to buying them is worth a jump of >3% in Tesla shares.

    Completely nuts, but give me the money, I can use it.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  14. #7364
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Ahh completely forgot about my Tesla calls. Nice one today, though I have no idea why it should be up after the FSD update debacle over the weekend. Everybody just talking about a piece of news from Panasonic about upcoming new cell design - but Tesla has already bounced ten times on this news and was supposed to be manufacturing these cells themselves and selling them to the market. Now the news that Panasonic is introducing them and Tesla is the only auto maker interested to buying them is worth a jump of >3% in Tesla shares.

    Completely nuts, but give me the money, I can use it.
    I think because Hertz just made an order for 100k Model 3s for the rental market

  15. #7365
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I think because Hertz just made an order for 100k Model 3s for the rental market
    Tesla was already up 3% when that was released. Same with Morgan Stanley's price target (now $1,200, Jonas is just adding two VW market caps because of wHaTeVeR).

    In any case, sales to rental companies is zero margin business, usually car companies just dump their excess capacity on these clients. So this is not going to change much about the bottom line - but when was Tesla ever about the bottom line? Might be a very strong day today despite the FSD clown show and the legal troubles brewing. Nothing new under the sun.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  16. #7366
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Out of Tesla.

    Playing BRPM today, let's see if WSB will jump on that one.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  17. #7367
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Fun fact of the day: Tesla now up $130bln in market cap today, which exceeds the total market cap of all listed rental car companies. Just saying.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  18. #7368
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Fun fact of the day: Tesla now up $130bln in market cap today, which exceeds the total market cap of all listed rental car companies. Just saying.
    This is because I just bought one

  19. #7369
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    This is because I just bought one
    You bought a rental car company?

  20. #7370
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Playing BRPM today, let's see if WSB will jump on that one.
    Anyone playing along? Up 27% since yesterday's post.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  21. #7371
    Just a thought - is Trump now genuinely a billionaire off the back of this? How much does he own?


    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Did you like it?

    This is what happens when a fraudulent SPAC merges with a fraudulent company and the company then gets chased around by a combination of MAGA and r/WSB. Amazing.



  22. #7372
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Anyone playing along? Up 27% since yesterday's post.
    Sold half now, currently up 37%. Nice.




    Quote Originally Posted by gingerpaul View Post
    Just a thought - is Trump now genuinely a billionaire off the back of this? How much does he own?
    That's a good question. I tried to find out in the SPAC filings but he doesn't appear in the insider filings. My suspicion is that he owns none.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  23. #7373
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That's a good question. I tried to find out in the SPAC filings but he doesn't appear in the insider filings. My suspicion is that he owns none.
    Been reflecting, he obviously doesn't own shares in DWAC, but he owns a good part of the other half of the company that it is merging with. As the merger ratio has been set already, his share is floating up and down with DWAC at the moment and his potential windfall is enormous (in the billions) - but obviously shares with a lock-up rather than the cash that he needs so badly.

    In the event that the merger is cancelled (fairly decent probability IMO given all the legal problems identified in the SPAC prospectus and Trump's use of copyrights), he would probably just own shares in a bankrupt company.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  24. #7374
    Alternatively, he pulls off the heist of the year if his team can keep the lights on until the lock up period ends. The irony would be that, in part at least, the people driving the share price upwards are his supporters, and it is their money he would be riding off into the sunset with.

  25. #7375
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gingerpaul View Post
    Alternatively, he pulls off the heist of the year if his team can keep the lights on until the lock up period ends. The irony would be that, in part at least, the people driving the share price upwards are his supporters, and it is their money he would be riding off into the sunset with.
    What would be new about that, has been his operating model since the 1970s.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  26. #7376
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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  27. #7377
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    You are being played for fools.

    • Hertz has nowhere near the money to buy 100k Teslas, let alone at list price
    • More than 50% of all rental fleet sales get sold back to the manufacturer
    • I bet you that Hertz gets finance from Tesla (which is easy to pull off with the soon-to-be-announced capital increase) and has a garanteed resale price back to Tesla
    • This will end up as a logistical disaster as these cars will be sitting with defects most of the time and Tesla will bleed compensation to Hertz
    • But the capital increase will not be announced before his Eminency has sold a truckload of his shares
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  28. #7378
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Bought back the BRPM shares which I sold at $13.33 and $14.44 at $11.33 (shame I cancelled my $15.55 sale order seconds before it hit and that was pennies from todays top).

    Also bought back into DWAC at $57.55 - nice slide from $175 to $57, looking for a bounce towards $90 to $100.

    Also started accumulating cheap ($10) SPACS which will likely announce soon. If they want to play this again, I am game. ACKIT, ATA, CHPM, VMAC, ZNTE and GLAQ to begin with.


    * actually ended up selling the BRPM and DWAC shares again for about breakeven as they still felt very heavy. Looking for better entry today, possibly in an early afternoon washout...?
    Last edited by Raffe; 27th October 2021 at 09:56. Reason: * added sell
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  29. #7379
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You are being played for fools.

    • Hertz has nowhere near the money to buy 100k Teslas, let alone at list price
    • More than 50% of all rental fleet sales get sold back to the manufacturer
    • I bet you that Hertz gets finance from Tesla (which is easy to pull off with the soon-to-be-announced capital increase) and has a garanteed resale price back to Tesla
    • This will end up as a logistical disaster as these cars will be sitting with defects most of the time and Tesla will bleed compensation to Hertz
    • But the capital increase will not be announced before his Eminency has sold a truckload of his shares
    And this.

    Perfectly explains why Tesla's market cap increases by $100bln because it has received a zero-margin order for $4bln from a company that lacks the means to pay for the order. Bullish.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  30. #7380
    Grand Master wileeeeeey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    The discount will be in the buy back price. Artificially high.

  31. #7381
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Bought back the BRPM shares which I sold at $13.33 and $14.44 at $11.33 (shame I cancelled my $15.55 sale order seconds before it hit and that was pennies from todays top).

    Also bought back into DWAC at $57.55 - nice slide from $175 to $57, looking for a bounce towards $90 to $100.

    Also started accumulating cheap ($10) SPACS which will likely announce soon. If they want to play this again, I am game. ACKIT, ATA, CHPM, VMAC, ZNTE and GLAQ to begin with.


    * actually ended up selling the BRPM and DWAC shares again for about breakeven as they still felt very heavy. Looking for better entry today, possibly in an early afternoon washout...?
    The dip came as expected, to $52.77 and jumped $15 immediately afterwards. Trouble is my buy order at $51.85 was a bit too optimistic/greedy and I didn't get any.

    Miffed, that would have been another royal trade.

    But then, I just got my fill at $ 10.80 for BRPM.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  32. #7382
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    The discount will be in the buy back price. Artificially high.
    I did it again, but only very small position: short Tesla at $1,054 (crazy level if you think about it...).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #7383
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I did it again, but only very small position: short Tesla at $1,054 (crazy level if you think about it...).





    https://twitter.com/MelStone31/statu...18383639252998
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  34. #7384
    Hope it's the right way round for you

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

  35. #7385
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    From the WSJ on the Hertz purchase of 100k Teslas. Looks like you were correct that there was more to it than at first appears;



    Behind That Hertz Tesla Purchase


    The more you look behind corporate and government press releases these days, the more you learn about their mutual benefit society. We wrote Tuesday about the many subsidies for Tesla’s electric cars, but it turns out there’s also a pot of subsidy gold behind the Hertz decision to buy 100,000 Teslas for its car-rental fleet.


    Tesla CEO Elon Musk says he isn’t giving Hertz a discount on the reported $4.2 billion order. But he doesn’t need to because the House reconciliation spending bill includes a 30% tax credit for “qualified commercial electric vehicles.”


    The text doesn’t clearly define what is a “qualified commercial electric” vehicle, but our sources say Hertz’s Teslas would likely make the cut. The credit could save Hertz $1.26 billion and make a Tesla almost as cheap for Hertz to buy as a Toyota Camry.


    Hertz plans to install thousands of electric-vehicle chargers, which could also be eligible for taxpayers subsidies. The House spending bill extends a 30% tax credit for the installation of EV charging stations through 2031, which is on top of the $7.5 billion appropriation for stations in the separate Senate infrastructure bill.


    Hertz’s interim CEO Mark Fields is casting the company’s Tesla order as a strategic business decision and evidence that EVs are going mainstream. Maybe, and there’s no doubt that the Tesla order is winning progressive accolades for the rental-car company. Electric vehicles are also less expensive to maintain than gas-powered cars, so they could reduce Hertz’s operating costs.


    But if EVs make business sense, why must the government subsidize them? Democrats complain that corporations aren’t paying their fair share in taxes, but then they give them generous tax breaks for promoting progressive policies that reduce their tax payments.


    Enjoy that Hertz Tesla ride. You’ll have paid more for it than the rental contract says.

  36. #7386
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Hope it's the right way round for you

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    Elon is selling. Wait for the filing, I'd say Friday after market close.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  37. #7387
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Elon is selling. Wait for the filing, I'd say Friday after market close.

  38. #7388
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Yesterday, not for the first time this year, there was more option premium spent on Tesla shares than on all other US stocks combined. Most of it on out-of-the-money call options expiring tomorrow.

    The SEC is watching and ... [wait for it] ... does nothing. They are busy hunting secretaries for insider trades yielding a few thousand Dollars.

    Let that sink in.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  39. #7389
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    (...) Also started accumulating cheap ($10) SPACS which will likely announce soon. If they want to play this again, I am game. ACKIT, ATA, CHPM, VMAC, ZNTE and GLAQ to begin with.
    Been buying 2,000 shares each for all of them, well some of the orders aren't filled yet.

    TINV I got a fill of 28 shares on Tuesday and Wednesday combined, and so far another 115 today - the interesting thing being that I got them across 70 executions. People are selling $10 shares that are trading at $10.12 and have a free put option at $10.00 in lots of 1, 2 and 3.

    Never seen anything like this... Suppose people are freeing up their last cents to throw at Shiba Inu??






    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  40. #7390
    Almost certainly , the smart money is Shiba money

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  41. #7391
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  42. #7392
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    A tale of two autopilots.


    1. Tesla




    2. Waymo (= Google)

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  43. #7393
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Elon is selling. Wait for the filing, I'd say Friday after market close.
    Quote Originally Posted by studly View Post
    Today we got two board members already, Ira Ehrenpreis and Antonio Gracias* sold a combined 800,000 shares yesterday, that explains already two thirds of the dark pool print.

    Wait for more filings from Larry and Bros. Musk. It's coming.


    * Those are supposed to be InDePeNdEnT dIrEcToRs - paid in billions of company stock!!!
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  44. #7394
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Just doubled my Tesla short at $1,120.00.

    Sitting and waiting now.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  45. #7395
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  46. #7396
    Lol at 'left turns don't work'

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  47. #7397
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Lol at 'left turns don't work'

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
    Did you see any of the videos where FSD is driving straight into incoming traffic?

    How no authority forces them to pull this dangerous piece of s***e from public roads is beyond me. It endangers anyone coming close to one of those cars.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  48. #7398
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Did you see any of the videos where FSD is driving straight into incoming traffic?

    How no authority forces them to pull this dangerous piece of s***e from public roads is beyond me. It endangers anyone coming close to one of those cars.
    Yeah, I mean people have already died, palms at high levels must be being heavily greased

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  49. #7399
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Getting taken to the cleaners with my Tesla short today. Tried to cut the position in half during the initial dip today and missed my order by a measly 11 cents - then it went vertical. Only short a hundred shares but down $8,800 on it.

    Not buying here. Feel tempted to sell more but I am too old for those harakiri trades.



    Other than that, Musk again on Crazy Days and Night. He has been a weekly feature for months now, nice insights into his life.

    https://www.crazydaysandnights.net/2...d-item-10.html
    Last edited by Raffe; 1st November 2021 at 19:54.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  50. #7400
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    After a market cap increase of half a trillion dollars, Elon just posted that the Hertz deal isn't signed yet.

    Gotta love 2021.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

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