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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #401
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Noted: I had thought some of those contracts would be unbreakable.
    Oh, yes - they will still setlle, just at a later time. No way avoiding obligations under such contracts.

  2. #402
    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    Selling complete - sold all my HSBC, half my barclays and all my BP. Both sectors freak me out at the moment. Especially with oil - from what I hear the actual delivery price of oil is well below the trading price. $10 oil? Very possible.
    BP rallying strongly on the basis that the divi is safe for this year. Divi is about 12% based on current share price.

    You have to take a long term view. Selling BP shares below £3 is madness. Not sure they even broke £3 during the Macondo incident, and that nearly broke the company with liabilities of $60bn.

  3. #403
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    That report isn't validated it is more of a discussion piece. I'm interested in what I believe we are about to learn from this

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rce=reddit.com

  4. #404
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    That report isn't validated it is more of a discussion piece. I'm interested in what I believe we are about to learn from this

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rce=reddit.com
    Well those would certainly be welcome but not seismic in terms of markets IMHO ...

  5. #405
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    That report isn't validated it is more of a discussion piece. I'm interested in what I believe we are about to learn from this

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rce=reddit.com
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Well those would certainly be welcome but not seismic in terms of markets IMHO ...
    Fantastic news. Doesn't change the fact that the economy will suffer hugely.

  6. #406
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Fantastic news. Doesn't change the fact that the economy will suffer hugely.
    Agreed. But it may provide detail on what the future looks like and remove some of the uncertainty. Let's see. I have a 20 year window so I'm not metaphorically sticking everything on red at the casino

  7. #407
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Fantastic news. Doesn't change the fact that the economy will suffer hugely.
    I can’t disagree with this however if the tests are sensitive and specific enough, and prove many people have already had COVID-19 without symptoms as some experts are now beginning to suspect, it could limit the economic suffering quite considerably IMO.

    Lots of ifs and buts, granted, but I’m hopeful.

  8. #408
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    BP rallying strongly on the basis that the divi is safe for this year. Divi is about 12% based on current share price.

    You have to take a long term view. Selling BP shares below £3 is madness. Not sure they even broke £3 during the Macondo incident, and that nearly broke the company with liabilities of $60bn.
    I sold these shares very close to Macondo price. Dividend is fine, but oil will slip further and lots of restructuring is looming. So I do agree, but if I buy back in, it'll be at a later date.

  9. #409
    I honestly can’t see the 13-15% market rally of the last 2 days lasting, all because the USA announced a 2 trillion dollar stimulus whilst the number of cases skyrockets( and the economic damage will continue to worsen). Anyone else think the market will lose its gains in the next few days/week?

  10. #410
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    I honestly can’t see the 13-15% market rally of the last 2 days lasting, all because the USA announced a 2 trillion dollar stimulus whilst the number of cases skyrockets( and the economic damage will continue to worsen). Anyone else think the market will lose its gains in the next few days/week?
    If you are looking for a trigger for further volatility, look no further than today's release of US jobless claims for last week. I have never seen such a wide array of forecasts, from 860k to 4 million people having been laid off in one single week (and before any area of the US went into lockdown).


  11. #411
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    I honestly can’t see the 13-15% market rally of the last 2 days lasting, all because the USA announced a 2 trillion dollar stimulus whilst the number of cases skyrockets( and the economic damage will continue to worsen). Anyone else think the market will lose its gains in the next few days/week?
    Dunno but I got out of the market last night, up 14%. Too scary for me to hang in there so I'll wait it out a bit more :)

  12. #412
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    The negative sentiment on this thread would be a perfect indicator by Mr Buffett that now is the time to get greedy :)

    I'm going back into the market tonight with my pension fund. By my own research I reckon we are within 5 days or so of positive news that changes sentiment and outlook. Sure the market may well decline before then but I don't want to miss the bounce.

    Caveat I am not a financial analyst, virologist or anybody you should be paying the slightest bit of attention to other than someone with an obsessive personality with its downsides but also its upsides which allow me to study and analyse things quickly and this is the call I am making based on what I believe is a massive overreaction to the real world per capita danger of this virus (and that this reality will become known by financial institutions relatively soon).
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    So since going back in I'm 14% up however aside from the US stimulus (read desperation) package not much has happened and the news I'm expecting that changes things isn't yet out there so I can only assume this is the bounciest of dead cats. I'll stay in the market nevertheless as US futures are still up so dumping doesn't seem to be on the agenda quite yet. I do have a lot of the portfolio geared towards tech companies
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Dunno but I got out of the market last night, up 14%. Too scary for me to hang in there so I'll wait it out a bit more :)

    You need to explain me how this works. Tuesday evening you go in, Wednesday morning you say you are up 14% and Thursday morning you say you sold Thursday evening at +14%?

    There is a risk that you are mistaken the last published price for the one you are getting for your transactions. You can never trade on historic prices, but your trades will be executed at the next opportunity after you placed the order. If you placed a buy order on Tuesday evening, you will likely have traded at some time during yesterday morning. If you then placed a sell order yesterday evening, that order will be executed today. In all likelihood, that trade will cost you money with European markets forecast to open in the negative.

  13. #413
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You need to explain me how this works. Tuesday evening you go in, Wednesday morning you say you are up 14% and Thursday morning you say you sold Thursday evening at +14%?

    There is a risk that you are mistaken the last published price for the one you are getting for your transactions. You can never trade on historic prices, but your trades will be executed at the next opportunity after you placed the order. If you placed a buy order on Tuesday evening, you will likely have traded at some time during yesterday morning. If you then placed a sell order yesterday evening, that order will be executed today. In all likelihood, that trade will cost you money with European markets forecast to open in the negative.
    Morning Raffe, how's the Grand-Duché this morning?

    presumably Ryan sold while the market was still open........but at the close it was well down on the opening level
    Last edited by BillN; 26th March 2020 at 08:50.

  14. #414
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    Morning Raffe, how's the Grand-Duché this morning?

    presumably Ryan sold while the market was still open........but at the close it was well down on the opening level
    Even if he sold before the close, I am curious how he knew before 10:00 in the morning that he was up 14%? No such move in the markets between closing Tuesday and Wednesday morning (FTSE100 up 4% at the time).

  15. #415
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    On a more fruity note

    Orange juice futures are the best performing asset so far this year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technolog...medium=custom7

  16. #416
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    A glass of OJ a day keeps the corona away happily we have our own little orchard of orange and a grapefruit trees, that was a sustainable, solid investment.

  17. #417
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    On a more fruity note

    Orange juice futures are the best performing asset so far this year.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technolog...medium=custom7


  18. #418
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Dunno but I got out of the market last night, up 14%. Too scary for me to hang in there so I'll wait it out a bit more :)
    Dunno what shares or fund you are buying/selling and how big a pot you are playing with but well done if you have boosted 14% in such a short time, highly risky imho.

    The funds I invest in mostly trade once a day at noon and you have to make your order before 11 and in some cases earlier to get the noon price. In these markets the lag could cost you dearly.

    One advantage of investment trusts is they trade on spot price all day.
    Last edited by Montello; 26th March 2020 at 10:43.

  19. #419
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    I placed a sell order to cash in my entire SIPP holding yesterday morning.


    Spent all day worrying about whether it’s the right thing to do.


    Woke up having decided that I’ve run my SIPP for the last 15 years on the simple rules of a passive investing “do nothing” strategy, so to suddenly decide upon a totally different strategy now would be completely daft.

    I am pretty sure the markets will go lower before they recover, maybe another 10-30% lower, who knows, but with 15 years until I retire, hopefully the blip will just be another like 2008 by then.



    I did sell out of half of my ISA. Sold Lindsell Train and sold my Jupiter Global Emerging markets fund which I only own because my best pal runs it. (Don’t tell him I’ve sold out!)

    I did that so that there’s a good chunk of cash and I can go back into an ETF which is quicker to buy and sell than funds, as you get the spot price like when buying shares.

    Happy to play with the ISA but it’s too dangerous to mess with the pension.

    If you have a long way to go before you retire, I’d say you’re better to be in the market looking out than outside looking in. Missing the bounce could be a lot more costly than avoiding some of the dip.

  20. #420
    As an interested observer of the Markets, with no expertise at all, I am wondering if under these unprecendented circumstances we are going to be seeing the dead cat bounce a few more times before a real sustainable approach to the virus is identified. Any thoughts from the more experienced on this?

  21. #421
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post

    I am pretty sure the markets will go lower before they recover, maybe another 10-30% lower,
    Im not sure I follow your logic, if you are sure markets will drop doesn’t it make sense to sell?

  22. #422
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    Isn't that what usually happens anyway, a couple of bounces before another precipitous plunge I expect, I claim no expertise.

  23. #423
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    (...)Missing the bounce could be a lot more costly than avoiding some of the dip.
    Mathematical evidence says the opposite. If you lose 50%, you need a doubling of what's left to get back to where you started. The best strategy for long-term success is to avoid unnecessary losses. Now how you achieve that is another topic.

  24. #424
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    Quote Originally Posted by I AM LATE! View Post
    As an interested observer of the Markets, with no expertise at all, I am wondering if under these unprecendented circumstances we are going to be seeing the dead cat bounce a few more times before a real sustainable approach to the virus is identified. Any thoughts from the more experienced on this?
    Here is an example from the past, few days old now but the red line gave plenty of false dawns on the way down.


  25. #425
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    the £/Euro is doing it's usual thing ....£ stronger overnight and in the morning that gradually reverses as we get into the day

    I'm gradually selling Euros, but the predictions of parity do not seem to be proving correct

  26. #426
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    IMHO this is nothing like the Great Depression. There is a ton of liquidity from the central banks plus a virus that will be found out to be more benign than feared. Final caveat I know nothing about investing so ignoring what I say would be a sensible thing to do but I just don't see this being the same as 1929.
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Here is an example from the past, few days old now but the red line gave plenty of false dawns on the way down.

    - - - Updated - - -

    IMHO this is nothing like the Great Depressions. There is a ton of liquidity from the central banks plus a virus that will be found out to be more benign than feared. Final caveat I know nothing about investing so ignoring what I say would be a sensible thing to do but I just don't see this being the same as 1929.
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Here is an example from the past, few days old now but the red line gave plenty of false dawns on the way down.


  27. #427
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You need to explain me how this works. Tuesday evening you go in, Wednesday morning you say you are up 14% and Thursday morning you say you sold Thursday evening at +14%?

    There is a risk that you are mistaken the last published price for the one you are getting for your transactions. You can never trade on historic prices, but your trades will be executed at the next opportunity after you placed the order. If you placed a buy order on Tuesday evening, you will likely have traded at some time during yesterday morning. If you then placed a sell order yesterday evening, that order will be executed today. In all likelihood, that trade will cost you money with European markets forecast to open in the negative.
    True I placed the sell order last night on HL. It will go through sometime today so yes if there are market declines today it will be less than 14%. Currently markets around 2.5% down so I may net out around 11%. C'est la vie. I'm still around 17% down on January as I suspect most people are

  28. #428
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    True I placed the sell order last night on HL. It will go through sometime today so yes if there are market declines today it will be less than 14%. Currently markets around 2.5% down so I may net out around 11%. C'est la vie. I'm still around 17% down on January as I suspect most people are
    If you placed your buy order on Tuesday night only there is no chance of being anywhere close to that, more likely up 2-3% (obviously depending on asset class or fund).

  29. #429
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    IMHO this is nothing like the Great Depression.
    I’m not suggesting it is, as you point out liquidity was much worse then and also the Great Depression also revealed a number of accounting frauds that had blown up the bubble.

    I was just pointing out that in a bear market the are often positive periods.

  30. #430
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    mr noble logic would say that if you genuinely thought the markets will drop 10-30% then you should be on the sidelines for now. Would an idea of going 50% cash and 50% still in the market be worth considering to hedge your bets? Might reduce your worry slightly?
    —————————

    With regards to selling funds and how long it takes, could be individual shares in a SIPP as opposed to funds? I’m out the market at present but normally hold ftse shares and they are bought and sold immediately.

  31. #431
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    With regards to selling funds and how long it takes, could be individual shares in a SIPP as opposed to funds? I’m out the market at present but normally hold ftse shares and they are bought and sold immediately.
    Still, not a chance to realise 14% between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.

  32. #432
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post

    With regards to selling funds and how long it takes, could be individual shares in a SIPP as opposed to funds? I’m out the market at present but normally hold ftse shares and they are bought and sold immediately.
    Most funds have a valuation point of noon, but not all. This information is readily available on the fund fact sheets.

    HL require your order to be placed prior to 8am to get the noon price that day. I believe they can take an order over the phone after 8 and still get the noon price but that is discretionary and depends on the fund. Given how busy they are I think you’d struggle.

    With the Fidelity platform and order placed before 11 with settle at noon. So in this respect the platform is better.

    Obviously individual stocks and investment trusts trade on spot prices whilst markets are open.

  33. #433
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    we should start our own Investment Club?

    Raffe can be the Chairman

    what's today's tip

    (from me - the Transferwise Euro to £ rates seems to be as good as the Currency Brokers)

  34. #434
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Still, not a chance to realise 14% between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.
    Tues pm I made the instruction and weds night (last night) I made the exit request. Not weds am. I can confirm the exit request is still saying 'pending' so let's see

  35. #435
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Tues pm I made the instruction and weds night (last night) I made the exit request. Not weds am. I can confirm the exit request is still saying 'pending' so let's see
    You posted Wed a.m. that you were up 14%.

  36. #436
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Still, not a chance to realise 14% between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning.
    A general fund yes but individual shares no. For example Carnival went up over 25% in one day so was just wondering if they were those type of holdings.
    ———————

    That aside I have been contacted by someone (Not a client just wanted an opinion) who has £1.5m in a family trust (gift trust) where they draw 5% per annum. Income is the key as the beneficiary will gets whatever’s left’ so to speak. They have decided to liquidate the various holdings into cash for the time being and were told it could take between 1 and 5 days due to the unprecedented withdrawals. With Old Mutual/ Quilters who I Have dealings with and normally it’s request before 10am and sold by the next day.

  37. #437
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    I was tempted with IAG shares. Currently a third of what they were a month ago. Sat on £7bn cash pile and seemingly posturing to take advantage of other airlines that are unlikely to be able to weather the storm. Airlines...a risky bet or the first to take the hit in times of crisis and potential winners in a recovery?

  38. #438
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    If you've got to ask the question of others, I'd be giving it a miss, but everyones attitude to risk is different. Frankly there's a lot of the get rich quick feeling in the air, partly because the US has deployed, what was it a couple of trillion, which was the objective of course, though it seems likely much more may well be required, gulp, I'm staying put for now.

  39. #439
    I'm feeling great with cash at the moment.

  40. #440
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    a positive thought - if the value of your Stocks/Shares investments, in total, is higher than the original cost you are still ahead of the game

  41. #441
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    ... it could take between 1 and 5 days due to the unprecedented withdrawals.
    5 days ... that is an age in these markets ...

    When they do these things I always get the feeling that the fund managers are creating a window for themselves to make a little margin ...

    I'm happy to be mostly cash, property and gold currently ...

  42. #442
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    A general fund yes but individual shares no. For example Carnival went up over 25% in one day so was just wondering if they were those type of holdings.
    Sorry to be picky but even Carnival returned zero or negative between Tuesday evening and close yesterday:


  43. #443
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Im not sure I follow your logic, if you are sure markets will drop doesn’t it make sense to sell?
    You missed the next point I made about the likelihood of missing the bounce and gains on the way back up and facing the possibility of having to buy back in at a higher price.

    I read a few pieces about market timing and all of them said that at times like this it’s usually safer to just sit tight and do nothing that to try to time the markets.

    In that last big dip in 2008, the piece said something like, if you’d missed 3 of the biggest rebound days because you were out of the market, you’d end up down for years longer than if you’d done nothing.

    Plus, when I say “markets may go down another 10-30%”, I’m referring to the FTSE 100/250 Dow/S&P etc, but most people’s SIPP money is likely all in finds like Vanguard LS80 and other similar equity trackers, which won’t see the same ups/downs as the main indexes as they have an element of hedge.

    Good idea about maybe cashing 50% out to hedge it all.
    I did sell about 70% of the funds in my ISA, but not brave enough to play with my pension, even though I’m expecting it to drop further before it recovers.

    It’s just been very painful watching circa £100k wiped off the total in the the last few weeks!

    A selfish outlook to have at this horrible time, it must be said, but no harm in discussing it all.

  44. #444
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Sorry to be picky but even Carnival returned zero or negative between Tuesday evening and close yesterday:

    No problem about being picky. I’m just using the example of a share that went up a lot in one day of trading. I wasn’t using that specific timeline. It’s been as low as £6 this week and now around £10.

  45. #445
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    No problem about being picky. I’m just using the example of a share that went up a lot in one day of trading. I wasn’t using that specific timeline. It’s been as low as £6 this week and now around £10.
    I know, been in the market for 25 years.

    I am just making the point that I don't think Ryan has made more than a tiny profit on this particular transaction, if any at all. He is yet to tell us what he invested in, unless he picked the winner of the day it will be almost impossible to record this type of gain. The way he communicates about it tells me he does not know how the trading works, which makes it very unlikely that he hit a bullseye.

  46. #446
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If you are looking for a trigger for further volatility, look no further than today's release of US jobless claims for last week. I have never seen such a wide array of forecasts, from 860k to 4 million people having been laid off in one single week (and before any area of the US went into lockdown).
    Came in closer to the high end of expectations: 3,283,000 first-time claims. That’s the highest level in history, and nearly five times the highest level of claims seen during the Great Recession.



  47. #447
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    You missed the next point I made about the likelihood of missing the bounce and gains on the way back up and facing the possibility of having to buy back in at a higher price.

    I read a few pieces about market timing and all of them said that at times like this it’s usually safer to just sit tight and do nothing that to try to time the markets.

    In that last big dip in 2008, the piece said something like, if you’d missed 3 of the biggest rebound days because you were out of the market, you’d end up down for years longer than if you’d done nothing.

    Plus, when I say “markets may go down another 10-30%”, I’m referring to the FTSE 100/250 Dow/S&P etc, but most people’s SIPP money is likely all in finds like Vanguard LS80 and other similar equity trackers, which won’t see the same ups/downs as the main indexes as they have an element of hedge.

    Good idea about maybe cashing 50% out to hedge it all.
    I did sell about 70% of the funds in my ISA, but not brave enough to play with my pension, even though I’m expecting it to drop further before it recovers.

    It’s just been very painful watching circa £100k wiped off the total in the the last few weeks!

    A selfish outlook to have at this horrible time, it must be said, but no harm in discussing it all.
    Noted, wasn’t clear if you had jumped or not.

    As Raffe stated, you need a 100% gain to recover a 50% drop so limiting losses is more important than missing a few gains.

    Plenty of examples to support all options. I’m in preserving capital mode as I’m too near retirement to wait for slow recovery.

  48. #448
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Came in closer to the high end of expectations: 3,283,000 first-time claims. That’s the highest level in history, and nearly five times the highest level of claims seen during the Great Recession.


    And just the start......

  49. #449
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Came in closer to the high end of expectations: 3,283,000 first-time claims. That’s the highest level in history, and nearly five times the highest level of claims seen during the Great Recession.


    Would there be any difference if the figures were adjusted for population increases over the years or any other factors, when comparing to the Great Recession, or would it be a drop in the ocean?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I know, been in the market for 25 years.

    I am just making the point that I don't think Ryan has made more than a tiny profit on this particular transaction, if any at all. He is yet to tell us what he invested in, unless he picked the winner of the day it will be almost impossible to record this type of gain. The way he communicates about it tells me he does not know how the trading works, which makes it very unlikely that he hit a bullseye.
    I'd like to know this too - trying to do my own research!

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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Would there be any difference if the figures were adjusted for population increases over the years or any other factors, when comparing to the Great Recession, or would it be a drop in the ocean?
    Sure that would make a difference - but doesn't change that it is at least a once-in-a-generation event; and next week's numbers may well be worse.

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