He may have said 'possible' rather than likely
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Ah OK makes sense. I've decided to increase my pension contributions now as I believe we will see a correction and so it should in theory mean cheaper stocks but obviously I want to safeguard the existing portfolio. May just ride it out as I still have at least 14 years until retirement.Originally Posted by Daveya.
I did get this email this am and thought all my money worries were over but upon logging in it would seem a £2.90 windfall won't quite sort out the early retirement.
Last edited by ryanb741; 17th November 2021 at 08:46.
Dunno your context, but before moving assets around I would ask him for his track record in asset allocation. Academia has established that the value of binary on/off bets to weather expected period of higher or lower returns is actually negative. Pretty solid consensus around that.
You are likely to lose on transaction costs and embedded fees. My advice is to ignore the advice and stay where you are. Maybe consider moving down one echelon in risk (is there a 60 or 50 variant of that fund?) - but then stay there and don't trade around.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Thanks, yes , he's looking at moving maybe a chunk, so that things can be more nimble etc etc
I've financially ok work apart time from home etc etc but not rich and thus risk profile remains low, however when I've done their questionnaire I'm apparently not risk averse at all
Anyway thanks for the advice
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Ask him if he gets a commission from the company that he is moving the funds to.
Honestly, I have a strong believe that anyone who is touting advice to move assets risk-on/risk-off in order to time the market is a charlatan and has other motives.
But what would I know, I have only been allocating assets for a living for over 20 years.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Thanks, all thoughts gratefully received
He did actually say that, its impossible to time the market, this is more about the levels I'm taking on drawdown, it's high, comparatively and if there is a big correction my situation looks a lot less rosy than it does now, anyway thanks for the advice, I'm cautious
If I wasn't in drawdown at 56 or drawing a much lower amount its simple, keep it there, he's exploring options
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Sold Tesla $1,077.15
Thank you, Elon.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
He says its impossible to time the market but will have ago anyway with your pension. Really?
No, that's not what he said. I'm paraphrasing. Many others in here have predicted a significant correction to the market, so its not surprising he does too.
The issue isn't his advice on the future market, he's paid to have opinions and advise accordingly.
What we do about that is my decision.
Raffe has given good advice above, and I'll take heed .
But I dont think we can just criticise for having an opinion in itself , particularly one that many seem to seem to agree with here
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There is never a shortage of people calling a correction / crash / bear market call it what you like ... it is a constant noise ... but as Raffe points out the track record of those calling it is woeful ... and the numbers show for a vanilla investor timing the market statistically always performs worse than holding over a long period.
I have attempted to time the market 3 times in the last 25 years ... first time was in 1999 which I got right and thought I was a genius ... second time was on Trumps election ... no so good ... third time was in the peak of covid crisis also not very good ... I have resolved to not try again ... I'm well diversified and this year is likely to be my second best in 25 years of investing so I'm not going to attempt to time the market again ... I will ride the ups and downs and not worry.
Me to probably , might chuck a few across to his preferred 'man' and see how he does, try before you buy , like Gecko with Charlie , little teaser
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I've taken an absolute hammering on CLOV since I bought in 2 months ago. I took a fairly large position and am 38% down. Last 2 days have been a bloodbath. Reluctantly considering cutting losses tomorrow as 38% loss is better than a 50% loss but before I do is anyone here in the know as to why this isn't a crappy stock?
Raising capital by issuing new shares so dilution going on.
Why do you keep buying the worst garbage and are still surprised when you get taken to the cleaners?
The company is literally under SEC and DOJ investigations for multiple frauds.
https://hindenburgresearch.com/clover/
https://investorplace.com/2021/09/cl...-in-red-flags/
https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/nj-l...rance-unicorn/
https://nypost.com/2021/06/10/clover...oint-patients/
Since this is 2021, it will probably bounce anytime soon. If you don't sell into the next ounce, you deserve to hold it until it hits zero.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Ok figured as much. Next bounce I'm outta there. In fact I'll set a sell at $7. It was supposedly the next meme stonk but alas not to be.
Seem to be lots of folks calling it a good time to buy on Stocktwits, but one has to take 97% of whats written on there with a pinch of salt.
https://stocktwits.com/symbol/CLOV
Algo nice rise
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I'd say an absolute mountain of salt. Today the bloodbath accelerates.
Just shorted Tesla again at $1,141, tight stop though (it's 2021 still after all).
Last edited by Raffe; 22nd November 2021 at 16:54. Reason: 1141, obvs
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Had a tight stop on this and go stopped out at $1,152. Then I shorted again at $1,171 and stopped out again at 1,192.
$1,198 now, looks like it wants to set a new all-time high? Crazy.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Amazing you keep doing it. What did Einstein say?
Only time I sold Tesla... was the car. To buy crypto.
I am up over $100k on Tesla this year. I just hope the outcomes stay similar.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Says you who frown on braggers... tsk tsk
^Add Lucid and Rivian into a third bar and you will lose your belief in rationality.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
https://www.ft.com/content/4f8d65b3-...3-2f8e7bf82d9f
Weary short sellers have unwound most of their bets against Tesla, as retail investors unperturbed by Twitter polls and talk of stock market bubbles continue to pump cash into the worlds most valuable car company.
Short positions in Tesla, as a percentage of the companys total shares available to trade, have fallen to 3.3 per cent from 19.6 per cent at the start of last year, according to S3 Partners, a specialist data provider. The number of shares in the company shorted has decreased almost 80 per cent to 27m over the same period.
Short seller Carson Block, founder of Muddy Waters Capital, said he understood the reasons people choose to short Tesla, arguing that in principle, theyre not wrong.
But the other side is [Tesla chief executive] Elon Musk, who is better at playing the public company game than anybody Ive ever seen.
Musks unorthodox leadership and until this year, Teslas lack of profit made the 18-year-old company a favourite among short sellers, who profit when a stock pick falls in value. Yet many of these investors have now exited their positions, in the wake of Teslas meteoric rise.
Michael Burry, whose bet against the US housing market before the financial crisis was dramatised in Hollywood blockbuster The Big Short, had long wagered against Tesla, arguing in a now-deleted tweet that the company benefits from massive
government and electricity subsidies.
Last month, however, Burrys firm Scion Asset Management exited its short position, having held more than 800,000 put options derivatives which allow investors to sell assets at an agreed price before a certain date on Tesla shares as recently as May.
Data provider Breakout Point estimates that since the second quarter of 2021, in all 33 weeks, Tesla was among the 30 most popular retail stocks, and has landed a spot in the top 10 most popular for 16 of those 33 weeks.
Still, Teslas huge rally means that it remains one of the US stock markets biggest shorts. Despite the reduction in short positions, the fact that the groups share price has risen more than 1,200 per cent since the start of last year means short interest equal to the number of shares shorted multiplied by the price of a share has risen from just shy of $11bn to $28bn over the same period.
And not all short sellers have thrown in the towel. UK hedge fund manager Crispin Odey has maintained his bet against the carmaker, writing in a recent letter to investors that many shares are now ridiculously valued and that Tesla had joined the immortals.
Even if you do all the numbers and are very generous and give them 10 per cent of the total market in eight years and put that all through, you end up on about 35 times 2030 earnings, Odey said. The share price halved would be a pretty good result [for Tesla].
He added, however, that barring a sell-off in fixed income markets, Teslas shares were unlikely to drop anytime soon. Until we get a proper break in bonds, then the equity market is not really going to come off.
Neil Campling, head of tech research at Mirabaud, continues to wager against Tesla through what he describes as a very negative view on Cathie Woods Ark Innovation exchange-traded fund. The ETF has fallen about 8 per cent this year despite its holding in the US electric vehicle maker. If it wasnt for their Tesla bet theyd have been underperforming even more, he said.
Musk has even by his standards had a busy month. Just a week after following through on a promise to sell 10 per cent of his Tesla stock if a majority of his 64.4m Twitter followers so desired, the company was sued for $162m by JPMorgan Chase over an alleged missed payment in 2018.
Teslas shares have, nonetheless, risen about 30 per cent over the past 30 days. There are signs, however, that Musks online escapades are beginning to grate for some investors.
One comment among Reddits r/wallstreetbets bulletin board where have-a-go day traders congregate summarised the mood as follows: TSLA risk factors . . . Competition: 5 per cent, supply chain/production: 5 per cent, Elon Musk dumb tweets: 90 per cent.
Tesla at $1,066, a cool $126 below my stop from yesterday. But as a tiny consolation, I just realised that I am still short 25 shares. Was short 125 and stopped only a 100.
Sometimes trading mistakes can be profitable, but most of the time they aren't.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Seems to be growing consensus that the new Covid variant provides a very mild illness in the vaccinated at least. Assuming that gets confirmed as being the case one would expect stock markets to bounce back as in theory if Delta gets outcompeted by a mild variant then that's a very good thing. Very early days of course
Yeah no one in South Africa even sneezed yet
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Sauce?
I will "relish" seeing them
The Dr who identified the new variant in SA seems to think that the symptoms are relatively mild.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-59450988
Lets hope that is the case for the UK population.
She is a part time GP and did not identify the new variant.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Not sure how the number of hours she works is relevant? You saying she is not a doctor?
The UK press are reporting that she alerted the SA Vaccination Advisory Committee.
She is a part time GP - the recommendation in SA is that people are presenting themselves to hospitals when they show Covid symptoms and not to their GPs. I am simply saying that her sample size of experience with the virus is tiny and does not justify her statements, which are in contradiction what is being said by the head of the largest hospital.
The press articles are giving her chairmanship of the South African Medical Association as credentials, totally ignoring that this is not a qualification because the SAMA is a trade union.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Pre markets seem to think she's a genius
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So...who's buying the dip?
Or catching the falling knife.
Omicron cured!
https://twitter.com/newspads/status/...0YG83LkLw&s=19
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So Friday was an overreaction then?
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I think the markets panicked friday thinking Omicron was likely to be worse than what we saw with Delta. Seems like they now think it won't be. Probably both views were wrong!
Yeah you do, you'd have 8 billion more
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And effin freezing
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Ah but what about compound interest ? .what was the rate back then ?
And would you be happy ?
Exactly I think this should have been 70000 BC have any credibility
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OK boys, if you use compound interest at 6% (which probably was the very long-term average), how many years?
Closer to
- 70
- 700
- 7,000
- 70,000 years?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
70
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Anyone else?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
700
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That's called hedging your bets, I suppose?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
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