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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #451
    Master Christian's Avatar
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    What I don't really get...if we come out of this with a 'V' or 'U' shaped dip to the economy as a whole but in order to keep things afloat the governments of the world have just spent trillions, do we see an affect on our daily lives and what is this effect? Are we back to a seriously long period of austerity to shore up the central coffers again? Will all long term plans to invest that were part of the election manifesto have to be changed?

    Also, if you are in the super-rich category, do you end up better off because there will be a lot of other people who can't stay afloat...ie is it relative or does everyone suffer economically equally?

    Sorry...really basic macro-economics questions that I find hard to understand/link global economics with actual change to individuals lives!

  2. #452
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    Normally a government Ďprintingí that much money would increase inflation, maybe very substantially. If youíve got savings they are worth less, if you have a low income you canít afford much. Most of us would feel poorer even if the government donít put up taxes. Conversely debts get smaller (if you can afford the interest).

    Iíve no idea if that is what will happen this time as Quantitative Easing doesnít seem to have had that effect and Iím not clever enough to understand why. Raffe or one of the other experts may know.

  3. #453
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If you are looking for a trigger for further volatility, look no further than today's release of US jobless claims for last week. I have never seen such a wide array of forecasts, from 860k to 4 million people having been laid off in one single week (and before any area of the US went into lockdown).

    Dow Jones now up 4% today (after rising 14% over past 2 days), makes zero sense to me ( & I have a degree in economics). Virus figures compounding and getting worse meaning prolonged economic damage.

  4. #454
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Sure that would make a difference - but doesn't change that it is at least a once-in-a-generation event; and next week's numbers may well be worse.
    They are unemployed not because their companies have gone bust but because they have been asked to close. As soon as they open again then employment will go up. By how much is the question but we cannot take these unemployment rates at face value as it is a manufactured, (hopefully) short term scenario

  5. #455
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    FWIW (nothing I hear you say) weíve had phone calls and webinarís with Rathbones and Brewin Dolphin over the last few days. Their general stance is that they are buying quality stocks as they think this is overdone. This is probably true but bare in mind their job is ... well buying stocks.

    In a telephone meeting with Vanguard today they are kind of reiterating the same stance, although Reading between the lines, weíd take out of it that they think there is a lot more short term volatility to come and then when things do return to normality, there could be quite a surge.

    Iím taking the personal view that Iím going to sit on the sidelines and wait. Get the next couple of weeks over with and reassess. Iím 50% cash now and 50% in various things including gold. Oh and watches :-)

  6. #456
    Quote Originally Posted by alfat33 View Post
    Normally a government ‘printing’ that much money would increase inflation, maybe very substantially. If you’ve got savings they are worth less, if you have a low income you can’t afford much. Most of us would feel poorer even if the government don’t put up taxes. Conversely debts get smaller (if you can afford the interest).

    I’ve no idea if that is what will happen this time as Quantitative Easing doesn’t seem to have had that effect and I’m not clever enough to understand why. Raffe or one of the other experts may know.
    I don't think we'll fall for the "austerity" propaganda again. And I also don't think BoJo will do that.

    QE was used to buy treasury/govt bonds. QE this time will need to be focused on corporate bonds - that is where the problem is. The Government will have to make choices in the coming months - which industries and businesses to save, and which to go bust. I read a commentator saying the Government should come to the table as a 'distressed investor' and place severe limitations on those businesses - we're talking about no dividends, no fat cat director salaries. Make businesses own this mess.

    Edit to add - I could be entirely wrong.
    Last edited by crazyp; 26th March 2020 at 16:04.

  7. #457
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    My trades have now been completed and due to the lags my 14% has been eroded to 5.8%. Better than a kick in the face though. Is there no immediate trading option? I was trading funds via HL mostly focused on tech and US indices. My career as a day trader is unlikely to take off but I'm of the mindset I will sit tight until monday as I've noticed over the last month friday seems to be a day people dump their stocks and then I'll go back in with a Vanguard LS 80 on monday in the expectation that the virus being MUCH more widespread and much more herd immunity than first thought will be more credibly recieved and a light at the end of the tunnel is seen. Of course if that isn't the reality then 'wheeeeeee!' all the way downwards but at 42 years old I have a while yet before retiring.

    This info if true is important. Uni of Oxford estimated a c 0.2 death rate based on many more people being infected than initially thought. They have conducted more research, this time in Iceland and haev come up with a death rate between 0.05% and 0.14%. Again the premise is far more people have already had the infection than current figures show and that the cases recorded in current data are the tip of the iceberg than end up being very serious.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/
    Last edited by ryanb741; 26th March 2020 at 16:12.

  8. #458
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    I don't think we'll fall for the "austerity" propaganda again. And I also don't think BoJo will do that.

    QE was used to buy treasury/govt bonds. QE this time will need to be focused on corporate bonds - that is where the problem is. The Government will have to make choices in the coming months - which industries and businesses to save, and which to go bust. I read a commentator saying the Government should come to the table as a 'distressed investor' and place severe limitations on those businesses - we're talking about no dividends, no fat cat director salaries. Make businesses own this mess.

    Edit to add - I could be entirely wrong.
    Yes that's what they have stipulated in the States with their baleout of airlines and other big business, but only half heartedly IMO.
    Dividends and share buybacks have only been prohibited for 12 months IIRC, after that it's fill you boots time.
    The CEO's and Directors of some of the big US Businesses must be rubbing their hands. It's yet another tax payer bailout for big business by the Donald and great timing for distressed companies like Boeing

  9. #459
    Quote Originally Posted by klunk View Post
    Yes that's what they have stipulated in the States with their baleout of airlines and other big business, but only half heartedly IMO.
    Dividends and share buybacks have only been prohibited for 12 months IIRC, after that it's fill you boots time.
    The CEO's and Directors of some of the big US Businesses must be rubbing their hands. It's yet another tax payer bailout for big business by the Donald and great timing for distressed companies like Boeing
    The effective bailout is insane. Big businesses will eat most of the $2 trillion. I'm hoping for better here and in Europe.

  10. #460
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    My most basic thought regarding investing atm is that we may not be at the bottom, but are definitely nowhere near the top. So buying now and holding must surely pay off long term. Obviously the correct companies need to be chosen!

  11. #461
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    Quote Originally Posted by jonny View Post
    Dow Jones now up 4% today (after rising 14% over past 2 days), makes zero sense to me ( & I have a degree in economics). Virus figures compounding and getting worse meaning prolonged economic damage.
    Well, that is the nature of stock markets. They are driven by fear and greed, which leads to plenty of overshooting. Also, some of the news of today were not exactly unexpected, so if anyone was concerned about unemployment they likely sold already a few days ago, and the increase in virus infections doesn't exactly come as a surprise either. Wait for some real surprises to come out and you see a reaction, currently we are just correcting some of last week's sell-off.

    I promise you we will have both big up and down days for weeks if not months.


    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    They are unemployed not because their companies have gone bust but because they have been asked to close. As soon as they open again then employment will go up. By how much is the question but we cannot take these unemployment rates at face value as it is a manufactured, (hopefully) short term scenario
    Unfortunately the lack of income has a rather immediate effect on the life of American workers, landlords have little patience and will throw whole families out of apartments, people will lose their health insurance and go bankrupt etc... The lasting effect on private consumption will be serious and should not be underestimated.


    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    My trades have now been completed and due to the lags my 14% has been eroded to 5.8%. Better than a kick in the face though.
    Yes, that sounds more realistic. Better than losing money for sure, congratulations.

  12. #462
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    My trades have now been completed and due to the lags my 14% has been eroded to 5.8%. Better than a kick in the face though. Is there no immediate trading option? I was trading funds via HL mostly focused on tech and US indices. My career as a day trader is unlikely to take off but I'm of the mindset I will sit tight until monday as I've noticed over the last month friday seems to be a day people dump their stocks and then I'll go back in with a Vanguard LS 80 on monday in the expectation that the virus being MUCH more widespread and much more herd immunity than first thought will be more credibly recieved and a light at the end of the tunnel is seen. Of course if that isn't the reality then 'wheeeeeee!' all the way downwards but at 42 years old I have a while yet before retiring.

    This info if true is important. Uni of Oxford estimated a c 0.2 death rate based on many more people being infected than initially thought. They have conducted more research, this time in Iceland and haev come up with a death rate between 0.05% and 0.14%. Again the premise is far more people have already had the infection than current figures show and that the cases recorded in current data are the tip of the iceberg than end up being very serious.

    https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global...atality-rates/
    Might be worth noting Icelanders are among the fittest, healthiest folks on the planet, Yanks and Brits considerably less so. Why do they keep sticking the wrong data into these models, the same thing happened when they used the flu infection/mortality rate for the bogus herd immunity wheeze...do even the 'experts' not learn from their mistakes...it's a puzzler.

  13. #463
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    Iím close to retirement and I just did a quick tot up of the damage and a bit of modelling bearing in mind I hope my retirement fund lasts a good 20 years or more so investment returns still count. Iíve got a mix of steady and a few more risky investments/funds probably like others on this thread.

    This is what I learned (roughly):

    Getting back into the market at the right time now will make a 5%-10% difference to my long term income.

    Getting the balance between cash and reasonable growth investments right over the next 20 years will make about a 30% difference to the long term.

    Inflation makes even more difference. If the average inflation rate rises by just 1%, but investment returns donít rise, it makes about 25% difference over the long term. If inflation hits 10% for a few years but shares only grow at 5% then life will be very different.

    All of which tells me I need to worry more about rebalancing the investments once all this is over, and hoping the global economy recovers in a sustainable way, than missing out on the upturn. I definitely donít want to gamble away the cash I have managed to save.

    Just my personal situation, but I was surprised how much difference the effect of compounding made.

    Of course others may be in a different situation, and if I knew when to jump back in with certainty that would be great.

  14. #464
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    You may want to look at real returns for your modelling.

  15. #465
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You may want to look at real returns for your modelling.
    Thanks Raffe, thatís very helpful and worth a closer study.

    I know my assumptions are very rough and ready but theyíve sort of worked out over the years. Recently Iíve been assuming real returns on equities of 3% long term and on cash -0.5%.

    Iím sure experts and professionals have much better insights but itís more the general situation Iíve been trying to get my head round. If that long term real return is 2% or 4% it will make much more difference to me than gambling on the Ďrightí day to start tracking the FTSE or the Dow again.

    Iíll keep an eye on the markets but Iím more certain than ever that I donít need to be spending the next few weeks or maybe months agonising over when to get back in.

  16. #466
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    Quote Originally Posted by alfat33 View Post
    Thanks Raffe, thatís very helpful and worth a closer study.

    I know my assumptions are very rough and ready but theyíve sort of worked out over the years. Recently Iíve been assuming real returns on equities of 3% long term and on cash -0.5%.

    Iím sure experts and professionals have much better insights but itís more the general situation Iíve been trying to get my head round. If that long term real return is 2% or 4% it will make much more difference to me than gambling on the Ďrightí day to start tracking the FTSE or the Dow again.

    Iíll keep an eye on the markets but Iím more certain than ever that I donít need to be spending the next few weeks or maybe months agonising over when to get back in.
    In order to compose an optimal portfolio, you need to enter risk (=volatility), in the end it is the risk-adjusted return which counts. Otherwise you would end up buying only the assets with the highest expected returns (emerging market equities).

  17. #467
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    £ gained today versus Euro - I'm surprised after Rishi's further "give aways" to the self employed which must be fraught with fraud or manipulation possibilities.......... although after his inference regarding "equalising" NI contributions with that paid by the employed ........ I bet some self employed individuals see it as a poison chalice

  18. #468
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    In order to compose an optimal portfolio, you need to enter risk (=volatility), in the end it is the risk-adjusted return which counts. Otherwise you would end up buying only the assets with the highest expected returns (emerging market equities).
    Iíve often heard it said that diversification is the only free lunch in investment.

    That doesnít mean a diversified portfolio of equities it means asset classes, currencies and geographical.

  19. #469
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    You may recall ten days ago I placed a small wager on a group of six U.S. airline stocks after they had been badly hammered (-40-60%). Of course the market continued downward after that, and airline stocks with it! Well, with today's strong Dow performance, my little airline bet is finally past breakeven, at plus 3.8%. Only God knows where the group will be in six months!

    Some of my favorite stocks...ones I was holding before I bailed last month...I'd like to buy back, but many of them have already rebounded nicely. I'm about ten days too late to catch them correctly - - unless there's another deep tailspin. For example, Amazon is now trading at the same price where they were in early February! I'll need to make heavy use of 3-month graphs (for example) to double-check where some of these companies are trading if I want to capitalize on the upside potentials.

  20. #470
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    You may recall ten days ago I placed a small wager on a group of six U.S. airline stocks after they had been badly hammered (-40-60%). Of course the market continued downward after that, and airline stocks with it! Well, with today's strong Dow performance, my little airline bet is finally past breakeven, at plus 3.8%. Only God knows where the group will be in six months!

    Some of my favorite stocks...ones I was holding before I bailed last month...I'd like to buy back, but many of them have already rebounded nicely. I'm about ten days too late to catch them correctly - - unless there's another deep tailspin. For example, Amazon is now trading at the same price where they were in early February! I'll need to make heavy use of 3-month graphs (for example) to double-check where some of these companies are trading if I want to capitalize on the upside potentials.
    I can see all major US airlines at or below closing prices from the 16th - with the execption of Southwest. Obviously, their recovery was aided by a spectacular and unprecedented 60bn USD aid package made up from your tax money.

    The travel sector would still be the last industry to see any of my investment money...

  21. #471
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    Obviously the stimulus package is being well received by the markets but it feels like people have lost sight of where we are.

    The USA has just gone to the top of the virus table as it looks like the virus is spreading rapidly.

    I don’t see the USA getting on top of this any time soon.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

    There will have to be further isolation there as they have been slow to react with Trump thinking it will all be over by Easter.

    When do we think life will return to normal and levels of demand return to pre virus levels. I can see us wrestling with this for a year as we see second and third waves of infection.

    Until we get a vaccine or achieve herd immunity the economy is on hold and so is demand

  22. #472
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I can see all major US airlines at or below closing prices from the 16th - with the execption of Southwest. Obviously, their recovery was aided by a spectacular and unprecedented 60bn USD aid package made up from your tax money.

    The travel sector would still be the last industry to see any of my investment money...
    Besides Southwest, I'm up nicely in SkyWest and Allegiant. The only "downer" (of mine) is Delta. Alaska and JetBlue are basically breakeven.
    Last edited by pacifichrono; 26th March 2020 at 23:25.

  23. #473
    We are all going to be footing this stimulus bill for years to come. The markets will tumble a lot further yet IMHO. If this goes on for more than three months, we are all in the shit. Big shit.

  24. #474
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    Quote Originally Posted by langdalematt View Post
    We are all going to be footing this stimulus bill for years to come. The markets will tumble a lot further yet IMHO. If this goes on for more than three months, we are all in the shit. Big shit.
    All this debt - not sure what going to happen when the "lenders" stop lending, (buying UK Government securities), to the UK Government and then their only option is to turn to the B of E for ?

    "helicopter money" is starting to be mentioned
    Last edited by BillN; 26th March 2020 at 23:57.

  25. #475
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Might be worth noting Icelanders are among the fittest, healthiest folks on the planet, Yanks and Brits considerably less so. Why do they keep sticking the wrong data into these models, the same thing happened when they used the flu infection/mortality rate for the bogus herd immunity wheeze...do even the 'experts' not learn from their mistakes...it's a puzzler.
    Whats that got to do with the study? It clearly shows data then analysis for lots of counties with the most recent update taking a dive into the data coming from Iceland? They are making reasonable potential assumptions on the data they have, they are not giving full blown conclusions. It is a well written unemotional piece clearly written by academics not journalists with an agenda.

  26. #476
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    I've bought back into BlackRock World Technology Fund. Going to keep that for a year at least as I believe in the fundamentals and believe we will witness a transfer of wealth from the heavily indebted old school energy, airline companies etc to FAANG and other tech players. Let's see. Will wait till monday and buy back into Vanguard LS80, Fundsmith and Lindsell Train.

  27. #477
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Besides Southwest, I'm up nicely in SkyWest and Allegiant. The only "downer" (of mine) is Delta. Alaska and JetBlue are basically breakeven.
    Ahh, hadn't looked at the smaller ones. Well done!

  28. #478
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I've bought back into BlackRock World Technology Fund. Going to keep that for a year at least as I believe in the fundamentals and believe we will witness a transfer of wealth from the heavily indebted old school energy, airline companies etc to FAANG and other tech players. Let's see. Will wait till monday and buy back into Vanguard LS80, Fundsmith and Lindsell Train.
    Good luck, I wonder if you'll be keeping these for longer than a day? What do we call a serial flipper in the financial markets?

  29. #479
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Good luck, I wonder if you'll be keeping these for longer than a day? What do we call a serial flipper in the financial markets?
    Day traders
    It's just a matter of time...

  30. #480
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    Day traders
    A day trader has the intention to buy and sell intraday.

    What I am looking for is the financial market equivalent of LTF, buying watches for eternity in order to sell them after a week.

  31. #481
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    down again on opening

    a 3% drop in the past would have been considered "serious" and cause for concern............ now it's considered "not bad" and almost "normal"

    but will the market fall further today?

    the £ was up yesterday and one of the reasons given was the rebound in the UK stock market

    ........ I think the worry now is that the Rishi must have exhausted all he can do and the B of E are now not far off the "nuclear" option .......starting the printing presses ........... and then how much are your £'s going to be worth?

    or am I being too dramatic

  32. #482
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    Entirely reasonable questions imho Bill...the bill for these bailouts will be unprecedented, seems almost nobody had any savings and everybody now expects a hand out, everyone is entitled, heck the great, great to infinity grandchildren will be working forever to pay this one off.

  33. #483
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Entirely reasonable questions imho Bill...the bill for these bailouts will be unprecedented, seems almost nobody had any savings and everybody now expects a hand out, everyone is entitled, heck the great, great to infinity grandchildren will be working forever to pay this one off.
    We rely on dividends for part of our income

    Dividends are being cut

    Can I get a government hand out, why not everyone else seems to be being compensated!!!!!!!

  34. #484
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    We rely on dividends for part of our income

    Dividends are being cut

    Can I get a government hand out, why not everyone else seems to be being compensated!!!!!!!
    absolutely it's going to be the new, new norm.

  35. #485
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    down again on opening

    a 3% drop in the past would have been considered "serious" and cause for concern............ now it's considered "not bad" and almost "normal"

    but will the market fall further today?

    the £ was up yesterday and one of the reasons given was the rebound in the UK stock market

    ........ I think the worry now is that the Rishi must have exhausted all he can do and the B of E are now not far off the "nuclear" option .......starting the printing presses ........... and then how much are your £'s going to be worth?

    or am I being too dramatic
    Governments around the world canít keep announcing new bail outs which is what has helped the markets bounce back a bit. I think until isolation ends (even if only temporarily) we will continue to see extreme volatility, with more of it being downward than upwards. When people get out and back to work a feel good factor will arrive.

  36. #486
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    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post
    Governments around the world can’t keep announcing new bail outs which is what has helped the markets bounce back a bit. I think until isolation ends (even if only temporarily) we will continue to see extreme volatility, with more of it being downward than upwards. When people get out and back to work a feel good factor will arrive.
    there used to be talk of a "wall of money" coming into London

    now it's a "mountain of debt"

    (this is not a criticism of what Rishi has done, maybe there was no alternative and it is easy to "second guess" any action, but I cannot see that there is anywhere left to go and if the situation gets much worse, and it's odds on that it will, what will the be left in the pot to help the situation - I feel that the "hand outs" have been a little too generous, too soon, OK there is inexperience of a situation like this, but people need to realise that they need to cut back their expenses to a minimum if they are going to survive financially)

  37. #487
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    there used to be talk of a "wall of money" coming into London

    now it's a "mountain of debt"

    (this is not a criticism of what Rishi has done, maybe there was no alternative and it is easy to "second guess" any action, but I cannot see that there is anywhere left to go and if the situation gets much worse, and it's odds on that it will, what will the be left in the pot to help the situation - I feel that the "hand outs" have been a little too generous, too soon, OK there is inexperience of a situation like this, but people need to realise that they need to cut back their expenses to a minimum if they are going to survive financially)
    I agree with you Bill but playing devil's advocate if everyone cut back on their expenses the economy would tank so actually you want people to live vicariously and buy £80k cars, £8k Rolexes etc as the faster money moves in the economy the more 'wealth' is generated. My big fear after this is that people re-evaluate their financial situations and start to save instead of spend and the Chancellor will need to implement punitive measures to stop people sitting on cash else the economy will be very anaemic after the virus has been defeated. Maybe charge people for having cash deposits etc.

  38. #488
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    My big fear after this is that people re-evaluate their financial situations and start to save instead of spend and the Chancellor will need to implement punitive measures to stop people sitting on cash else the economy will be very anaemic after the virus has been defeated. Maybe charge people for having cash deposits etc.
    Good luck to the government who tries to do that. I have cut my spending right back and won't be buying watches or anything similar for a long while. If I spend or save it's money I earned and the decision of what to do with it is solely up to me, recession or not.

  39. #489
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    I agree with you Bill but playing devil's advocate if everyone cut back on their expenses the economy would tank so actually you want people to live vicariously and buy £80k cars, £8k Rolexes etc as the faster money moves in the economy the more 'wealth' is generated. My big fear after this is that people re-evaluate their financial situations and start to save instead of spend and the Chancellor will need to implement punitive measures to stop people sitting on cash else the economy will be very anaemic after the virus has been defeated. Maybe charge people for having cash deposits etc.
    Morning Ryan

    If you are retired and living on a fixed income, if that falls, or if prices increase and they certainly could if the £ "tanks," the only thing that you can do is to cut back - and the UK has more and more people in that category

    OK if you have capital you can start spending that, but again retirees in that age group tend to want to feel that they have a cushion if tough times come......... plus many have most of their capital tied up in their house.

    There are also many, many OAP's in the UK living just off their Old Age pension ........... and will the value of that decrease in real terms

    Personally, I'm from a financial background, qualified FCA, I have always been ultra careful with our finances, but many have not and as we all know have been encouraged in past years to pile into the stock market on an almost "all-in" basis.............there are lots of "paper losses" out there and there will be a substantial loss of dividend income, and this coupled with Nil returns on Building Society accounts has hit retirees hard.

    I do not believe that the Markets will recover to anywhere near their past levels for some years ......... confidence has now been lost and although memories can be short, I don't think so in this case.

    But good luck to everyone
    Last edited by BillN; 27th March 2020 at 11:54.

  40. #490
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    To go even further than the punishing Zero interest rate policies put in place after the last 'crisis' really would be to kill the golden goose imho. Though that's kind of where Europe is already...no interest on deposits and few genuine 'free banking' options.
    Last edited by Passenger; 27th March 2020 at 11:54.

  41. #491
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Good luck to the government who tries to do that. I have cut my spending right back and won't be buying watches or anything similar for a long while. If I spend or save it's money I earned and the decision of what to do with it is solely up to me, recession or not.
    They'll move interest rates into negative and incentivive spending. If that won't help, we are in a deflationary environment.

    Yet I only hear people afraid of inflation in this thread. The danger is not inflation but the lack of it. Look at Japan post 1989 crisis. Just saying.

  42. #492
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    They'll move interest rates into negative and incentivive spending. If that won't help, we are in a deflationary environment.

    Yet I only hear people afraid of inflation in this thread. The danger is not inflation but the lack of it. Look at Japan post 1989 crisis. Just saying.
    Agree with everything Raffe says. The very low interest rates has been the key issue over the last few years - trying to get people to spend and inflation up. It hasn't worked and that's been one reason why some of the issues we are seeing were at some point inevitable. Very little a government can do now to incentivise when you start at interest rates of 0.5%. If we do head towards how Japan is, not good at all.

  43. #493
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    Quote Originally Posted by wileeeeeey View Post
    Good luck to the government who tries to do that. I have cut my spending right back and won't be buying watches or anything similar for a long while. If I spend or save it's money I earned and the decision of what to do with it is solely up to me, recession or not.
    Agreed - that really would be a step too far.

    On a separate note I can imagine the debates that will follow over the small print of the Brexit settlement...Ö...

  44. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    They'll move interest rates into negative and incentivive spending. If that won't help, we are in a deflationary environment.

    Yet I only hear people afraid of inflation in this thread. The danger is not inflation but the lack of it. Look at Japan post 1989 crisis. Just saying.
    Could be about the only move left to them. Speaking for myself they can 'tax' the money earned from my properties and investments but I'll be damned if I'd ever put my 'labour' back into the market only to get rumped twice, by taxes and then punitive negative rates.

  45. #495
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    Iím certain after this episode even the most frivolous of spenders will save some cash deposits for a rainy day.

    Watching the various talking heads on the news it seems like the average person has enough cash to live for only a few weeks without wages.

    That is a very precarious way to live.

  46. #496
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    Mmm - zero or negative interst rates - cashless economy anybody?

  47. #497
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    How much is a bloody big safe!!

  48. #498
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    Might come to helicopter money drops like the States yet, amazingly Mrs P's US accountant emailed yesterday to provide information and it appears even ex pat Yanks might be eligible for up to 1200 dollars, though I can't swear to it, haven't got around to looking at all the fine print yet. Then again there has to be some up side to always having to file over there in addition to liabilities in your Country of residence.

  49. #499
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    Russian Ships in the Channel

    if Boris has it, they will all have it

    rang my pension provider and they are not answering the phone for the time being

    what next

  50. #500
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    How much is a bloody big safe!!
    To put your loo roll in?

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