When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

[Raffe]

Given the rate of c-19 spread in the USA I’d not hold out too long.

I still see the USD as the best of a bad bunch. Just wait until we start talking about the Italian and Spanish bail-out. EUR/USD target 0.85 this year!

[Montello]

I still see the USD as the best of a bad bunch. Just wait until we start talking about the Italian and Spanish bail-out. EUR/USD target 0.85 this year!

Probably so as it has history and size on it's side; the Euro is in big trouble.

I still think that the virus is going to get seriously out of control in the USA; every time I see Trump on TV he just looks like a loon in a state of constant denial about the challenge that faces the nation. He has spent his whole privileged life demanding things happen and it is his experience that generally he gets his own way ... however; I don't think the virus gives a damn about Trumps demands and desires and as the country isn't acting as quickly as it should I think they are heading for a major health care melt down that will be very damaging ... every day is new record for new cases; 30k yesterday ... it's spiralling out of control.

The USA as a nation and a culture are the least equipped to deal with this.

[BillN]

I still see the USD as the best of a bad bunch. Just wait until we start talking about the Italian and Spanish bail-out. EUR/USD target 0.85 this year!

It depends, and depends again on what The Donald does, or does-not do

but, lets talk about a bail-out throughout the Euro-zone and the political unrest that that may cause in certain member countries

but, the £ is forecast to fall against the Euro back to 1.07, (it seems to be on the way back down today), even taking into account what may happen in continental Europe and even more so if Brexit happens as (was) planned ..............but 3 weeks ago "they" were taking about near parity for the £/Euro pair

Raffe - is there anywhere that I can open a Rand deposit Account? - I've looked but come up against a dead end outside S Africa

[Raffe]

Raffe - is there anywhere that I can open a Rand deposit Account? - I've looked but come up against a dead end outside S Africa

If you are looking to buy the Rand and then hold it as balance for future payments - Transferwise will do that. If you want to transfer the Rand into your account, not sure but sure one of the challenger banks could do it?

[BillN]

If you are looking to buy the Rand and then hold it as balance for future payments - Transferwise will do that. If you want to transfer the Rand into your account, not sure but sure one of the challenger banks could do it?

Thanks Raffe

I've got Rand in my Transferwise account

The deposit rate in SA on Rand deposit accounts is very good, (obviously for a reason). - I do realise that the Rand could sink even further and is now being regarded as being at almost "junk" stage by some financial institutions.

[Montello]

Looks to be quite a bit of optimism around, very strong day yesterday and today has started well in the markets.

[crazyp]

Looks to be quite a bit of optimism around, very strong day yesterday and today has started well in the markets.

No idea why. It's maybe wanting to have some optimism before Easter.

[Devonian]

All the markets appear very blue. The DAX is kind of in bull territory having risen over 20% of late. Market optimism at the flattening curve possibly?

[~dadam02~]

Looks at the top risers in the FTSE which is all those that have been well and truly hammered recently, e.g. Easyjet, Cineworld, Trainline, Mitchells & Butlers etc. The true impact to all of these won't yet be fully understood, so it's temporary relief in my view and normal order will resume on these soon enough.

[ryanb741]

Looks at the top risers in the FTSE which is all those that have been well and truly hammered recently, e.g. Easyjet, Cineworld, Trainline, Mitchells & Butlers etc. The true impact to all of these won't yet be fully understood, so it's temporary relief in my view and normal order will resume on these soon enough.

Probably people thinking restrictions will ease soon and all that pent up demand will go to those companies. Sadly there will be over 1000 UK deaths announced at 2pm today and the optimism will fade even though basing optimism on deaths is stupid as it should be based on new infections (as deaths happen 2 weeks after an infection so what we read about deaths is based on infections 2 weeks ago). Issue is the UK has the worst testing capabilities of Western Nations (a recent University research article estimated we were only picking up 1.2% of actual infections which is by some distance the worst in the developed world) so even data we get on new infections can't be trusted to mean anything significant.

[Raffe]

There are more and more people calling for a bottom. Hmm, I am not really convinced yet, but ready (and will be very happy to) admit I was wrong if we manage to continue.

Mind you, in those sell-off situations there is usually a second buying opportunity when the market returns to the vincinity of the former low before really taking off.

[KingKitega]

Even with the recent rise, the FTSE is still down 26% from the peaks - the worst of all the major indices around the world: Dow -23%, S&P -21%, Hang Seng -16%, Nikkei -21%, Dax -24%. (edited - sorry I had 6m performance before)

The markets are always forward looking and I won't be surprised to see indices globally melt higher due to declining death/infection rates. At some point the economic damage will be assessed and realised but just as there will be losers, there will also be huge winners when this is all over. There maybe another decline when that happens but it's going to be fairly significant bad news (re-infections and risk of a second peak etc) for us to get back to the recent lows now. Personally, I will be buying more if the FTSE gets anywhere near 5k.

[demonloop]

Sadly there will be over 1000 UK deaths announced at 2pm today.

Up from 400 odd yesterday??

[ryanb741]

Up from 400 odd yesterday??

That's correct. 400 is too low as many hospitals don't report deaths over the weekend plus tuesday is the day the non-hospital deaths are reported for the past week (care homes etc). So it is an artificially inflated number on tuesday but the stock market is often an artificially inflated or deflated beast anyway!

[Seadweller75]

There are more and more people calling for a bottom. Hmm, I am not really convinced yet, but ready (and will be very happy to) admit I was wrong if we manage to continue.

Mind you, in those sell-off situations there is usually a second buying opportunity when the market returns to the vincinity of the former low before really taking off.

I recently read a Goldmans analyst report suggesting there will be further lows, despite the recent gains... I hope they are wrong, but it continues to be volatile and likely to for a few months yet atleast.

[miguelh34]

Gold and silver stocks

[Montello]

There are more and more people calling for a bottom. Hmm, I am not really convinced yet, but ready (and will be very happy to) admit I was wrong if we manage to continue.

Mind you, in those sell-off situations there is usually a second buying opportunity when the market returns to the vincinity of the former low before really taking off.

I don't understand the optimism; the situation in the USA seems far from under control to me.

What I am not understanding it the true impact on business caused by the past and on-going lock down. Overheads will continue(granted some can be managed) and the revenue losses will be huge. Given most business operate off relatively modest margins I can't see how many companies won't be forced to the wall ...

Any business in holiday, travel, entertainment, retail must be seriously running low on cashflow now ...

[Raffe]

[demonloop]

That's correct. 400 is too low as many hospitals don't report deaths over the weekend plus tuesday is the day the non-hospital deaths are reported for the past week (care homes etc). So it is an artificially inflated number on tuesday but the stock market is often an artificially inflated or deflated beast anyway!

786 announced according to my quick scan of BBC website

[jonny]

There are more and more people calling for a bottom. Hmm, I am not really convinced yet, but ready (and will be very happy to) admit I was wrong if we manage to continue.

Mind you, in those sell-off situations there is usually a second buying opportunity when the market returns to the vincinity of the former low before really taking off.

The S&P 500 is now back to the price it was in May 2019 seems way overpriced to me considering the unknowns - the USA hasn't peaked yet, we have no idea when the Western world will be back to normal and surely a serious prolonged recession is on the cards after the restrictions are eventually lifted. I also think there will be a second sell-off at some point as makes no sense the market is back to where it was 9 months ago considering what we all know.

[pacifichrono]

I don't understand the optimism; the situation in the USA seems far from under control to me.

What I am not understanding it the true impact on business caused by the past and on-going lock down. Overheads will continue(granted some can be managed) and the revenue losses will be huge. Given most business operate off relatively modest margins I can't see how many companies won't be forced to the wall ...

Any business in holiday, travel, entertainment, retail must be seriously running low on cashflow now ...

I agree. I suspect the economic ramifications of COVID, even if we are now passing the 'peak' of the virus, will be very substantial.

The markets seem to be rallying at the moment because the end is at least in sight (we think). But the realities of the wreckage and wasteland left behind may yet to be recognized fully by the financial markets.

[Passenger]

786 announced according to my quick scan of BBC website

That is hospital deaths only I think, deaths in care homes/own homes are not included I understand, reckon I saw a total figure around the 850's earlier, happy to be corrected. They all count and matter of course. IF the virus continues to perform as predicted I guess that means 3000 plus over the weekend, strewth.

[ryanb741]

786 announced according to my quick scan of BBC website

These are hospital deaths. The non-hospital death data will get added to this and will be deaths outside of hospitals over the past 7 days

[Montello]

I agree. I suspect the economic ramifications of COVID, even if we are now passing the 'peak' of the virus, will be very substantial.

The markets seem to be rallying at the moment because the end is at least in sight (we think). But the realities of the wreckage and wasteland left behind may yet to be recognized fully by the financial markets.

I can’t get me head around the optimism associated with the flattening of the curve.

It’s not the loss of life that is damaging the economy but the lockdown and how that stifles demand and the interruption of the supply chain. These are the things that will be crippling GDP and the cash reserves of businesses who have had their revenue streams halted. The massive money printing will be working to support the balance sheets of these companies but that will have to be paid for longer term. We have to expect companies with weaker balance sheets that will have to face higher tax regimes for many years to come. Or am I completely misunderstanding the situation?

[demonloop]

These are hospital deaths. The non-hospital death data will get added to this and will be deaths outside of hospitals over the past 7 days

Makes it very difficult to follow (well, for me anyway, though I’m only half watching it in all honesty)

[pacifichrono]

I can’t get me head around the optimism associated with the flattening of the curve.

It’s not the loss of life that is damaging the economy but the lockdown and how that stifles demand and the interruption of the supply chain. These are the things that will be crippling GDP and the cash reserves of businesses who have had their revenue streams halted. The massive money printing will be working to support the balance sheets of these companies but that will have to be paid for longer term. We have to expect companies with weaker balance sheets that will have to face higher tax regimes for many years to come. Or am I completely misunderstanding the situation?

That is the theory. In reality, how many tens of thousands of small businesses in the UK and US have already shuttered permanently, with more to follow, plus the more leveraged medium- and larger-sized companies? How many jobs are gone forever as of today? As of April 30? As of May 31?

The consumer buying power we enjoyed on February 1 won't be seen again for a very long time, which means production cut-backs and lower GDP even AFTER the crisis ends.

[BillN]

One of the stocks that I follow and hold............driven down to 40p this year

up 8% yesterday and 12% today

I don't see any reason for these increases apart from maybe an opinion that it was oversold

[odyseus10]

One of the stocks that I follow and hold............driven down to 40p this year

up 8% yesterday and 12% today

I don't see any reason for these increases apart from maybe an opinion that it was oversold

It's a puzzle, maybe the stock is linked to medicine or other sectors that are getting more business eg steaming services, mobile operators, Amazon?

There are certainly a few stocks that rising, bucking the trend.

The banks seem to be getting a right kicking - no doubt investors are worried about companies going out of business and no paying their loans back?

I have some Plus500Ltd (which is an international investing/trading platform), that was around £8 in January/February and are now > £11 ???

[Bondurant]

I think that's a spread betting platform, right? They are adding loads of customers as more people are betting or, to be more precise, losing. Maybe something to do with being bored and at home!

[peterdo]

Trying to pick a bottom is difficult, main consideration should be your investing time horizon, do the market movements this week make sense? No. Does the market look like a good entry point with a two year timeframe? Probably

Strong balance sheets will win this game, plus those businesses that stimulus directly or indirectly flows to.

The movements are so significant I have ended up day trading, you can make 30% profit off FTSE 100 stocks like Melrose or 250 stocks like Vistry or Virgin Money but they are capable of reversing that at the same speed.

Personally I am gradually dripping money into Equity and Technology funds while buying oversold stocks...but this is crazy times, the US will drive the extent of the slow down and they’ve lost the plot


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[peterdo]

I think that's a spread betting platform, right? They are adding loads of customers as more people are betting or, to be more precise, losing. Maybe something to do with being bored and at home!

That’s high risk as well, Alpha FX ended up with a default on a corporate customer that couldn’t make margin, £30m hole due to currency moves, being paid back in instalments over an extended period.


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[Montello]

That is the theory. In reality, how many tens of thousands of small businesses in the UK and US have already shuttered permanently, with more to follow, plus the more leveraged medium- and larger-sized companies? How many jobs are gone forever as of today? As of April 30? As of May 31?

The consumer buying power we enjoyed on February 1 won't be seen again for a very long time, which means production cut-backs and lower GDP even AFTER the crisis ends.

I agree, many are already bust but it’s not yet become apparent.

The current upwards momentum looks like a bear trap to me. 7 of the 10 best days in the FTSE history came as false dawns during bear markets that later cruelly turned out to be nothing more than bear traps for the unwary.

Previous bear traps ringed ... are we looking at another?

[Hooshabak]

I agree, many are already bust but it’s not yet become apparent.

The current upwards momentum looks like a bear trap to me. 7 of the 10 best days in the FTSE history came as false dawns during bear markets that later cruelly turned out to be nothing more than bear traps for the unwary.

Previous bear traps ringed ... are we looking at another?

Can you explain to me how they’re bear traps?

Also wouldn’t a upward momentum be a bull trap?

[Montello]

Can you explain to me how they’re bear traps?

Also wouldn’t a upward momentum be a bull trap?

It’s a turn of phrase to describe a situation of inadvertently buying into a bear market.

It is never a problem buying into a bull market. Until it ends of course.

[pacifichrono]

Here's a chart of the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 (FTSE 100) for the past three months through today, April 7. Pretty close, huh? The Dow is the blue line and the FTSE 100 in black.

The UK and the World moved up smartly on Tuesday, but the U.S. ended its day flat (as you can see below). The Dow was up strongly in the early session on hopes of a flattening virus curve, but economic realities seemed to dampen investors later in the day to evaporate earlier gains.

We are likely to be faced with these conflicting news reports in the coming several weeks - - advances made against the pandemic, but horror stories about businesses, industries, and jobs. My personal feeling is the market will bump along for a while trying to sort out these opposing influences, but will eventually realize it is in the money and profit business, not in the health and good will business: meaning a further downturn.

Opinions?

[murkeywaters]

Rolls Royce shares were £2.50 at close on Friday, today they hit £3.56, for such a big share to move so much in such a short time is just crazy, if you got the money and balls you can make some huge profits..

[Montello]

My personal feeling is the market will bump along for a while trying to sort out these opposing influences, but will eventually realize it is in the money and profit business, not in the health and good will business: meaning a further downturn.

I share your view, it’s the economic issues that define the market not the health emergencies.

We are yet to see the full economic impact. All the talk about the corporations is one thing but there are many SMEs that will be wiped out by this. Plus all the people that have been laid off by corporates. The aggregate impact of all these things strikes me as being huge. There must be some clever economists working all this out somewhere.

My guts feel, and it’s nothing more than that, is that tougher times lay ahead once we have won the health battle which is far from over, just seen Tokyo is starting restrictions. All the major economies are still in the grip of this.

[~dadam02~]

Another big jump for NCYT today.

[maccer]

Another big jump for NCYT today.

Believe that they received WHO approval.

[~dadam02~]

Believe that they received WHO approval.

Yes saw the announcement this morning. Interested to see how the FTSE100 plays today, cautious opening so far so lets see if it maintains those gains from yesterday.

[maccer]

I been and out of it about 4 times so far so will be watching from the sidelines now.

[Montello]

interested to see how the FTSE100 plays today, cautious opening so far so lets see if it maintains those gains from yesterday.

Clinging on to the recent gains ... just.

Still not seeing any good news on the economic outlook.

[pacifichrono]

The Dow is up more than 700 points so far today...

[Raffe]

The Dow is up more than 700 points so far today...

...tempted to let some e-minis fly.

[Devonian]

...tempted to let some e-minis fly.

Selling?

[Raffe]

Selling?

Yes, just sold the June Dow Future at 23240.

[Devonian]

Yes, just sold the June Dow Future at 23240.

I think you’ll do well.

[Raffe]

I think you’ll do well.

Have another order in to sell at 23320, hopefully before close today.

[BillN]

ITV up 7% today

up 12% yesterday

and up 8% the day before

watch Aviva over the coming days

[Raffe]

Have another order in to sell at 23320, hopefully before close today.

Just sold the second one.