Don't overdo the politics. Markets don't care. Even Trump's tax cuts had only marginal effect on the stock market, those large corporations pay very little tax anyway. What the market has seen over the last years is a liquidity-driven expansion of the P/E ratio, whether companies pay a few percent more or less tax don't matter much. The only difference which Trump versus Biden makes is which sectors are performing or not. If Biden re-engages the US into the Paris accord, that will cost the oil and exploration industry dearly and there may be other sectors to benefit from greener and more consumer-friendly policies.
On the other hand, what the market hates is uncertainty. I think what we are seeing right now is the market understanding that the Trump shit-show is over and common sense and predictability are returning. A relief rally if you want.
Trump is too abrasive, too opinionated, has made a mockery of being commander in chief but has been great entertainment at times over the last 4 years, markets go up and down with his Tweets for god sake..Originally Posted by jonny
The US needs stability and less conflict making comments, while Biden isn’t perfect he’ll calm things down - if he gets in that is!!
Dow up 1000 points 5% ish in 2 days
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That sounds emotionally charged, a bias of what you want to see (which of course is natural) - let's see. You could well be correct, I am not certain.
First time in two weeks I am net long the equity market.
Well so am I :-) but maybe with a different interpretation in you - hopefully the outcome will be similar for both of us even if our reading of events differs :-)
Just closed most of my long. I don't understand what keeps the market up with this massive uncertainty....
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
They won't like Trump tweeting about the Dems trying to steal the election. Looks like he might be entrenched challenging postal votes
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Yeah he just did that, and announced a speech. He will declare victory, triggering a crisis.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Yes, he's confident enough about Florida and Wisconsin Michigan to declare victory and claim Dems cheating again
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Did anyone really believe this was all going to go by plain sailing?
Yes, I did.
I thought that there would be some sense of responsibility, you know doing what's right even if one ends up paying higher taxes for it.
How stupid of me.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
CNN far better coverage than UK media
' looks good for Trump '
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I am looking at this, plus NYT and WaPo.
https://www.politico.com/2020-electi...lts/president/
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
The comments in there suggest Wisconsin goes to Trump
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Senate 46 46,
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No decisive results , days of waiting on district postal votes , gonna be a tough today I think
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Trump declares their is fraudulent voting and intends to go to the Supreme court to stop counts,
Worst possible outcome
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He's going in the trenches isn't he, any voted counted from now on is a fraud count
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Wall Street gonna give back everything gained from yesterday
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It’s going to come down to the postal votes, some states are 1-2% in favor of Trump but are known to have lots of Democrat postal votes which would swing those states to Biden..
I’m just perplexed how people can still see Trump as a viable president, he’s been an absolute calamity..
Red Mirage playing out now unfortunately.
The monumental mistake was to count on decency to gain the upper hand.
Most Americans don't seem interested in that, if they can get one of their special interests served - whether it's abortions, taxes or immigration. Trump has taken those three issues and that was good enough to garner broad support, and remarkably these supporters don't seem to care if he fleeces the country, fucks up the planet and kills democracy as long as he appoints enough nut-jobs to the Supreme Court.
Things calm though right?
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On top of this I've never been able to understand how people who claim to be religious flock to him. That's the bigger wtf for me.
Abortion
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Early doldrums forgotten, buy buy!
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I know, but then tie yourself to the party and not the candidate. Many of Trump's followers are voting for him before any party. He could have ran independent and still got a huge chunk of votes.
On the one hand you have [any number of terrible, terrible things]
But on the other, abortion.
Funny how they care so much about the life of an unborn child and couldn't give a f about it once it's born.
You have to believe in a god to be elected in the US that much is clear, despite what the founding fathers stood for.
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One of the biggest mysteries in this world.
I dont get it either....... and its not a single issue, its a multitude of things, iCE, sexual allegations, tax evasion/avoidance, 200k+ deaths due to corona, allowing big pharma to rip off the american public, spending tax payers money to go to Maro Lago (sp) etc. I just dont understand how its so close - thought it would be a landslide.
Jesus!
Poor people voting for a guy that wants to remove access to free healthcare...for poor people...facing a pandemic
While he pays $750 in taxes as an apparent billionaire
The US is an absolute toilet of a country that the U.K. is trying it’s best to emulate under this current government
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Main problem is neither of the candidates are classed as presidential stock, thing with Trump is he is all about the show and lots of people like that.
The democrats missed a trick here in running Biden, he's old, looks frail at times and led a very muted campaign, he has the Obama link but always seems to be in his shadow, a solid charismatic character with age on his side hitting the road and campaigning hard would have walked this election against Trump.
On a positive note, markets seem to be holding well..
Biden might still win. But close to 50% of the population won't accept it, and he'll still have to deal with a Rep. senate, which means he can do fuck all. America is toast.
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Forum: George & Dragon. Unwind with a pint or two in our own virtual pub. Friendly banter and clean jokes please and no politics or religion.
The Senate isn't decided yet but looks like it's difficult to win for Democrats.
Last edited by Raffe; 4th November 2020 at 23:11.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
To be fair right at this moment the markets and the election are completely linked. Almost impossible to discuss one without the other until it's over.
Yeah but i used bad language, religion has been discussed etc etc, its a fair challenge.
Hard not to discuss the markets without any reference to the election though
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Do it in the BP then. Lots of people calling Trump a fool and yet they can’t follow one of only about three rules that actually exist in this place. A simple who’s winning maybe but all the usual associated nonsense (plus swearing) shouldn’t be discussed in the G&D.
Are they? Seems to me this will lead to months of uncertainty yet markets are loving it.
In regards to certainty Vs uncertainty I'd say so. Could be an interesting week until the supreme court and postal votes etc decide a clear winner.
You might want to take your self moderation over to the Lockdown 2 thread, there is some naughty lads talking about OUR government and their politics - heaven forbid!
I don't think the supreme court will anything other than uphold the law, even a Trump judge wants evidence
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Not interested in BP overspill threads thanks.
Got anything to say about markets or are you only coming for the sh-stirring?
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
Read only. I was quite enjoying the thread until your sweary little rant.
It was me who swore, and Ive acknowledged it
Biden takes Wisconsin, Dow seems happy
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I believe Raffe was the first to drop the F bomb.
High level finance is stressful
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You little man.
Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.
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