closing tag is in template navbar
timefactors watches



TZ-UK Fundraiser
Page 8 of 178 FirstFirst ... 6789101858108 ... LastLast
Results 351 to 400 of 8866

Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #351
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    But in all probability it wont be indefinite will it, 12 to 18 months for a vaccine, early sign s are very positive. But good on you nonetheless.
    Boy they dressed well back then.
    No it wont, and it will be over relatively quickly. Months rather than years, and I am not convinced a vaccine is worthwhile pursuing, unless they think it will cope with all coronaviruses. Most countries will hit herd levels relatively quickly. Then its a case of protecting the endangered and dealing with the really ill.
    It's just a matter of time...

  2. #352
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    Cartagena, Spain
    Posts
    24,820
    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    No it wont, and it will be over relatively quickly. Months rather than years, and I am not convinced a vaccine is worthwhile pursuing, unless they think it will cope with all coronaviruses. Most countries will hit herd levels relatively quickly. Then its a case of protecting the endangered and dealing with the really ill.
    Lets hope, could be a quicker recovery than the last one, lost decade and all that, due to this one being precipitous enough to clear out the genuinely dead wood, businesses not people of course. Although so much depends on political responses, will the US be happy to resume business with China as before once the dust settles...hard to say. Will the EU evolve, lots of potentially large changes.

  3. #353
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    5,719
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Lets hope, could be a quicker recovery than the last one, lost decade and all that, due to this one being precipitous enough to clear out the genuinely dead wood, businesses not people of course. Although so much depends on political responses, will the US be happy to resume business with China as before once the dust settles...hard to say. Will the EU evolve, lots of potentially large changes.
    Forecasting this situation is pure guesswork imho.

    This is a truly global shock, I dont see anything in history to give any clues how this will pan out.

    I am sure China will gain advantage through this as a result of their authoritarian handing of the issue and the controls they can apply to protect their markets.

    I also suspect Trump will want some sort of revenge on China, not sure how that will manifest itself but if America takes a pasting, partly due to their approach to the problem, its not going to be pretty.

    Challenging times for markets and investors.

  4. #354
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    7,939
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    But in all probability it wont be indefinite will it, 12 to 18 months for a vaccine, early sign s are very positive. But good on you nonetheless.
    Boy they dressed well back then.
    Yeah, everyone wore suits and dresses a century ago, but I certainly can't vouch for the quality thereof.

    An 18-month shutdown would be economic suicide.

  5. #355
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    Cartagena, Spain
    Posts
    24,820
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Forecasting this situation is pure guesswork imho.

    This is a truly global shock, I don’t see anything in history to give any clues how this will pan out.

    I am sure China will gain advantage through this as a result of their authoritarian handing of the issue and the controls they can apply to protect their markets.

    I also suspect Trump will want some sort of “revenge” on China, not sure how that will manifest itself but if America takes a pasting, partly due to their approach to the problem, it’s not going to be pretty.

    Challenging times for markets and investors.
    Absolutely it's all guesswork, just like the markets, so much volatility and unknowable variables, I claim no special expertise or insight, helps pass the time in lock down and occasionally theres's something to be learned.

  6. #356
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    Cartagena, Spain
    Posts
    24,820
    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Yeah, everyone wore suits and dresses a century ago, but I certainly can't vouch for the quality thereof.

    An 18-month shutdown would be economic suicide.
    Out of interest PC do you think reopening America for business in just a couple of weeks, IF Trumpy goes with his gut, won't exacerbate an already epic public health crisis...

  7. #357
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    7,939
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Out of interest PC do you think reopening America for business in just a couple of weeks, IF Trumpy goes with his gut, won't exacerbate an already epic public health crisis...
    It WILL exacerbate the problem, but I think he'll be talked out of such nonsense.

  8. #358
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    5,719
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    Absolutely it's all guesswork, just like the markets, so much volatility and unknowable variables, I claim no special expertise or insight, helps pass the time in lock down and occasionally theres's something to be learned.
    Granted, interesting to see the thoughts of others.

    Having watched Trump he seemed way off the mark and represents a huge danger to Americans.

    He seems willing to sacrifice a proportion of the population to limit economic damage.
    Last edited by Montello; 24th March 2020 at 23:39.

  9. #359
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    Cartagena, Spain
    Posts
    24,820
    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    It WILL exacerbate the problem, but I think he'll be talked out of such nonsense.
    We can but hope.

  10. #360
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    London
    Posts
    19,615
    Hypothetically if something came out saying that 40% of the UK population had this already, the fatality rate was actually very low and the reason for the hospital issues and peak is volume not deadliness and that some kind of normality should return in about 8 weeks how do you think the markets would react?

  11. #361
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    7,939
    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    We can but hope.
    Opening back up for business as usual the day after Easter would be as crazy as keeping everything boarded up for 18 months. Both extremes result in extremely dire consequences.

  12. #362
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    San Diego
    Posts
    7,939
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Hypothetically if something came out saying that 40% of the UK population had this already, the fatality rate was actually very low and the reason for the hospital issues and peak is volume not deadliness and that some kind of normality should return in about 8 weeks how do you think the markets would react?
    If these parameters also reflected Europe and the U.S., I would guess the markets would come back with a vengeance, with at least a 75% recovery.

  13. #363
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Forecasting this situation is pure guesswork imho.

    This is a truly global shock, I dont see anything in history to give any clues how this will pan out.

    I am sure China will gain advantage through this as a result of their authoritarian handing of the issue and the controls they can apply to protect their markets.

    I also suspect Trump will want some sort of revenge on China, not sure how that will manifest itself but if America takes a pasting, partly due to their approach to the problem, its not going to be pretty.

    Challenging times for markets and investors.
    Not really. Modelling will give a fair indication, based on expected infection rates. We are not looking at an eradication model, we are looking at a slightly controlled infection rate. So the expectation is that it will spread throughout the masses - the goal is not to overwhelm NHS resource - While they let it spread.

    China is starting to head back to some form of normality already - so its not unreasonable to believe that this will pass quicker than some fear mongering suggests.
    It's just a matter of time...

  14. #364
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2013
    Location
    Near the sea
    Posts
    7,122
    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Opening back up for business as usual the day after Easter would be as crazy as keeping everything boarded up for 18 months. Both extremes result in extremely dire consequences.
    Your right in that both are extreme, one to life and the other to the economy, If the US try to limit the damage to their economy with Trump treating it like a common cold then I'm afraid the US could be the biggest casualty in this epidemic, I really hope not but its a perfect storm for this virus.

    So moving back on topic - what sectors, investments, stocks will yield the best growth in the short term, I'm happy to trade shares in the bigger established companies rather than sit and watch a fund as I'm not interested in having all my money tied up long term, saying that I will open up a Vanguard policy and stick some slow burner money in.

    I appreciate its anyones advice but ultimately its down to us individuals to do our own due diligence before investing..

  15. #365
    Master
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    S.Yorks
    Posts
    1,153
    From a total novice , surely in the long term putting some funds in the blue chip companies of the FTSE 100/250 will pay off ?

    Shell, Glencore, Vodaphone etc

    Interested to hear more knowledgeable members thoughts 
    Last edited by Oranges10; 25th March 2020 at 08:30.

  16. #366
    Master
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    S.Yorks
    Posts
    1,153
    Preferably before 8am 😂

  17. #367
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by Oranges10 View Post
    From a total novice , surely in the long term putting some funds in the blue chip companies of the FTSE 100/250 will pay off ?

    Shell, Glencore, Vodaphone etc

    Interested to hear more knowledgeable members thoughts 
    Quote Originally Posted by Oranges10 View Post
    Preferably before 8am 
    All my pre-8am slots are already taken up. Why not just start with reading what has been written in this thread during the last days? It will answer your question.

  18. #368
    Master
    Join Date
    Jan 2011
    Location
    S.Yorks
    Posts
    1,153
    Dont worry , I wasnt explicitly asking for one of your slots. I said more knowledgable members ;))

  19. #369
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    London
    Posts
    19,615
    So since going back in I'm 14% up however aside from the US stimulus (read desperation) package not much has happened and the news I'm expecting that changes things isn't yet out there so I can only assume this is the bounciest of dead cats. I'll stay in the market nevertheless as US futures are still up so dumping doesn't seem to be on the agenda quite yet. I do have a lot of the portfolio geared towards tech companies

  20. #370
    Master mr noble's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Cambs
    Posts
    4,663
    Is it possible to buy an S&P and Dow ETF now before the market in the US opens today?

    It’s a guaranteed increase today.


    Is that possible or would you miss the jump while all the pros take the trading slots??

    I’ve got 40k in cash sat in my HL Fund and Share account and doing that seems like a sure bet.

  21. #371
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2014
    Location
    Cartagena, Spain
    Posts
    24,820
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    So since going back in I'm 14% up however aside from the US stimulus (read desperation) package not much has happened and the news I'm expecting that changes things isn't yet out there so I can only assume this is the bounciest of dead cats. I'll stay in the market nevertheless as US futures are still up so dumping doesn't seem to be on the agenda quite yet. I do have a lot of the portfolio geared towards tech companies
    I may've misunderstood your previous comments but I thought you were reentering the market with your pension fund, and the idea was that you were calling market bottom and thus all in, back in for the long term ie decades so as not to miss the coming bounce, sustained return to growth. Sounds more like you're planning on trading in and out, which is entirely at your discretion of course but not for the faint hearted at a time like this, all the best.
    Last edited by Passenger; 25th March 2020 at 11:00.

  22. #372
    Master
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    3,785
    crazy

    what is happening is classic "greed and fear"

  23. #373
    Master
    Join Date
    Apr 2015
    Location
    Devon
    Posts
    5,134
    There is going to be huge volatility for days or weeks, could even be months before things settle. Theres a lot of bad news to continue coming before good news. Estate agents are now shut, lenders have stopped valuations so effectively the housing market is on hold. Personally Im seeing investors either withdraw funds or not put new funds in (had the odd speculative investor). Even bigger everyone is stopping their monthly pension payments to reduce outgoings. One form with 4 Directors pay 10,000 a month in. They are very cash rich but said work has now stopped and they need to think
    Of cashflow. Multiple that by X amount of average savers putting away 60 or 100 a month. Continued buying of shares certainly helps the market and thats going to have some impact.

    On the other hand weve spoken to Rathbones, Brewin Dolphin and others and they are saying there me some very very cheap buys of quality shares out there and they are buying.

    So who knows? Weve all got our own opinions and weve all got a 50% chance of being right.

    Personally the Current fear of loss is is far worse for most people than missing out on a gain. Thats how you need to decide your own position. Taking into account your job security, health, happiness and overall wellbeing, If you cant sleep at nice worrying about losing more money then sit on the sidelines for now.

    As my NaN always used to say theres no worry in the world worth the worry.

  24. #374
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Is it possible to buy an S&P and Dow ETF now before the market in the US opens today?

    It’s a guaranteed increase today.


    Is that possible or would you miss the jump while all the pros take the trading slots??

    I’ve got 40k in cash sat in my HL Fund and Share account and doing that seems like a sure bet.
    DJ ETF is trading at USD 212 pre-market in the US (+ 3%), you can also buy an ETF which is listed on a UK exchange now.

    There is no guarantee that it will result in a profit though, sorry about that.



    Edit: Came back to add the screenshot of the graph and it dropped another dollar in the meantime.
    Last edited by Raffe; 25th March 2020 at 11:21.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  25. #375
    Master mr noble's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Cambs
    Posts
    4,663
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    DJ ETF is trading at USD 212 pre-market in the US (+ 3%), you can also buy an ETF which is listed on a UK exchange now.

    There is no guarantee that it will result in a profit though, sorry about that.



    Edit: Came back to add the screenshot of the graph and it dropped another dollar in the meantime.


    Thanks Raffe.

    I think I better stick to the mantra I’ve always followed....”if you don’t fully understand what you’re doing, don’t do it.”

    Better stick to regular tracker funds I think. Need to read a few more books before jumping head first into buying leveraged ETPs.

    (Just been reading all about the WisdonTree S&P 500 3 x Daily Leveraged ETN) sounded like a great idea at first!

  26. #376
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Thanks Raffe.

    I think I better stick to the mantra I’ve always followed....”if you don’t fully understand what you’re doing, don’t do it.”

    Better stick to regular tracker funds I think. Need to read a few more books before jumping head first into buying leveraged ETPs.

    (Just been reading all about the WisdonTree S&P 500 3 x Daily Leveraged ETN) sounded like a great idea at first!
    I would advise extreme caution with leveraged ETF funds, they are systematic value destroyers if kept over time.

    The DJ ETF is moving fast today:

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  27. #377
    Master
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    Somewhere
    Posts
    1,901
    If you are at home and want to 'play' the markets.. Sign up for an IG account. They give you 10k in demo mode so you can trade to your heart's content. I'm staying out of this market as yes I may be late to any eventual rebound but reason I would jump in early is to make a bit of extra gains but is it really worth it?

  28. #378
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    5,719
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Is it possible to buy an S&P and Dow ETF now before the market in the US opens today?

    It’s a guaranteed increase today.


    Is that possible or would you miss the jump while all the pros take the trading slots??

    I’ve got 40k in cash sat in my HL Fund and Share account and doing that seems like a sure bet.
    If you want to play that game maybe do some spread betting on the index .... not something I have or ever would do ...
    Last edited by Montello; 25th March 2020 at 11:47.

  29. #379
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    5,719
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Devonian View Post

    Personally the Current fear of loss is is far worse for most people than missing out on a gain.

    That is my position; I have preserved capital and I am happy to wait and drip back in over time ...

    The announced stimulus packages seem to have reversed (for now) the market decline but as far as I can see the health emergency is still gathering pace ... the situation in New York is out of control and I suspect the rest of the USA isn't far behind.

    Trump thinks this will be over by Easter; I hope he is right but I fear we will be in and out of lock down for a while. Second waves will surely follow.

  30. #380
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    90 minutes ago, the Dow was heading for a plus 4% opening, now it's flat versus yesterday's closing. Place your bets....


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #381
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    5,719
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    .... the news I'm expecting that changes things isn't yet out ...
    Is this what you are hoping for?

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/n...eady-9m39rpzhc

  32. #382
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Or this?

    Quote Originally Posted by vagabond View Post
    Prince Charles has just tested positive...
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #383
    I'm using this bounce to liquidate somewhat. No reason for the bounce other than volatility and speculation.

  34. #384
    Master
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    3,785
    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    I'm using this bounce to liquidate somewhat. No reason for the bounce other than volatility and speculation.
    agreed - nothing new - presumably the action taken in the US was expected last week

    keep your screens open, but interesting that HL this morning when I logged in was experiencing heavy demand

  35. #385
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    I'm using this bounce to liquidate somewhat. No reason for the bounce other than volatility and speculation.
    I was tempted this morning to short-sell some instruments, but stayed away as I am very engaged on the currency side already. I see absolutely no reason to get excited, I expect the markets much lower in a few weeks.

  36. #386
    Master
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    3,785
    just bought a small greenhouse and some timber for some raised beds - oh and some hair trimmers as I'm not planning to go to the hairdressers for some time - I had a 2 all over 10 days ago in S Africa which should last me a few weeks, (semi bald, so not expecting much)
    Last edited by BillN; 25th March 2020 at 13:15.

  37. #387
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I was tempted this morning to short-sell some instruments, but stayed away as I am very engaged on the currency side already. I see absolutely no reason to get excited, I expect the markets much lower in a few weeks.
    Selling complete - sold all my HSBC, half my barclays and all my BP. Both sectors freak me out at the moment. Especially with oil - from what I hear the actual delivery price of oil is well below the trading price. $10 oil? Very possible.

  38. #388
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    Selling complete - sold all my HSBC, half my barclays and all my BP. Both sectors freak me out at the moment. Especially with oil - from what I hear the actual delivery price of oil is well below the trading price. $10 oil? Very possible.
    So tempted to short the sh*t out of Tesla, but then I only closed my position three days ago. With pandemic-related plant closures, global slowdown and cheap gasoline there isn't much left they can hide behind.

  39. #389
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    So tempted to short the sh*t out of Tesla, but then I only closed my position three days ago. With pandemic-related plant closures, global slowdown and cheap gasoline there isn't much left they can hide behind.
    I have a friend who's in the wind turbine business - current project is a farm in the States. All put on hold for cash (only get fully paid on delivery) and also pointless because of the price of oil. Whoever orders has to have extreme strong faith in renewable - he's not hopeful.

  40. #390
    Master
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    3,785
    just started to weaken from opening position against Euro

  41. #391
    Master
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Sunny Surrey
    Posts
    1,832
    Can someone tell me why the markets remain open, when most big business is shut down?

    Surely once C-19 was announced a pandemic the markets should have closed?

  42. #392
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by cbh View Post
    Can someone tell me why the markets remain open, when most big business is shut down?

    Surely once C-19 was announced a pandemic the markets should have closed?

    Why would one want to close the markets? It would remove all possibilities for companies to raise capital to keep operations going.

  43. #393
    Master
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Location
    Sunny Surrey
    Posts
    1,832
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why would one want to close the markets? It would remove all possibilities for companies to raise capital to keep operations going.
    I know nothing about high finance so wanting to understand, why would shutting the market remove the possibility of raising capital?

  44. #394
    Master
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    UK
    Posts
    3,785
    Quote Originally Posted by cbh View Post
    Can someone tell me why the markets remain open, when most big business is shut down?

    Surely once C-19 was announced a pandemic the markets should have closed?
    computer games!!

  45. #395
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    5,719
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why would one want to close the markets? It would remove all possibilities for companies to raise capital to keep operations going.
    There are so many positions baked in to the markets it simple cant happen.

    What about all those futures, shorts, derivatives and other financial positions that would be broken ... plus any threat of closing the markets would precipitate an almighty sell off and people rushed to remove their capital.

  46. #396
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    5,719
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Why would one want to close the markets? It would remove all possibilities for companies to raise capital to keep operations going.
    There are so many positions baked in to the markets it simple cant happen.

    What about all those futures, shorts, derivatives and other financial positions that would be broken ... plus any threat of closing the markets would precipitate an almighty sell off as people rushed to remove their capital.

  47. #397
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by cbh View Post
    I know nothing about high finance so wanting to understand, why would shutting the market remove the possibility of raising capital?
    Financial markets is where companies can sell bonds or shares to raise money. If markets are closed there are no such transactions, bringing the economy to standstill.

  48. #398
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    There are so many positions baked in to the markets it simple cant happen.

    What about all those futures, shorts, derivatives and other financial positions that would be broken ... plus any threat of closing the markets would precipitate an almighty sell off and people rushed to remove their capital.
    That is less the problem, all those contracts include 'force majeure' clauses.

    People need to understand that financial markets don't exist to provide them nice returns but to assure efficient exchange of capital between investors and business. If times are tough, volatility will spike. But to close the markets will do no good and instead just hurt all parties.

  49. #399
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
    Location
    Unknown
    Posts
    5,719
    Blog Entries
    1
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    That is less the problem, all those contracts include 'force majeure' clauses.
    Noted: I had thought some of those contracts would be unbreakable.

  50. #400
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2012
    Location
    Ltzebuerg
    Posts
    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Noted: I had thought some of those contracts would be unbreakable.
    Oh, yes - they will still setlle, just at a later time. No way avoiding obligations under such contracts.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

Do Not Sell My Personal Information