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  1. #7001
    Grand Master Passenger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Unless BTC goes back to a new ATH…..then Saylor will be hailed a genius.
    But really how can it, won't the changes China made have permanent, lasting impacts and IF Central Banks go ahead with their own digital currencies then BTC's basically an irrelevance isn't it...

  2. #7002
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    But really how can it, won't the changes China made have permanent, lasting impacts and IF Central Banks go ahead with their own digital currencies then BTC's basically an irrelevance isn't it...
    No and no.

    China banning BTC mining is great news for everyone outside China. China had over 70% of all the global mining hash. (Due to electricity being cheap) As those miners relocate their operations, the global mining distribution is being more evenly distributed across the globe and is becoming far greener as a result, as most new setups are using 100% renewable power. (El Salvador is going to use geothermal volcano power to mine)

    The recent drop in BTC price is likely partly fuelled by the Chinese miners offloading their mined BTC as they fear having it confiscated.

    I have no idea why the Chinese ban on mining has created so much negative FUD. There is nothing negative about it, unless you’re a Chinese miner.

    Governments creating their own digital versions of their fiat currencies makes zero difference to anything. They’ll just be stable coins linked to their own currency and backed by the same government. No effect on Bitcoin between owning Yuan or Digital-Yuan.

  3. #7003
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    No and no.

    China banning BTC mining is great news for everyone outside China. China had over 70% of all the global mining hash. (Due to electricity being cheap) As those miners relocate their operations, the global mining distribution is being more evenly distributed across the globe and is becoming far greener as a result, as most new setups are using 100% renewable power. (El Salvador is going to use geothermal volcano power to mine)

    The recent drop in BTC price is likely partly fuelled by the Chinese miners offloading their mined BTC as they fear having it confiscated.

    I have no idea why the Chinese ban on mining has created so much negative FUD. There is nothing negative about it, unless you’re a Chinese miner.

    Governments creating their own digital versions of their fiat currencies makes zero difference to anything. They’ll just be stable coins linked to their own currency and backed by the same government. No effect on Bitcoin between owning Yuan or Digital-Yuan.
    Haha, what a pile of idiocy.

    El Salvador will never mine a single bitcoin with volcano energy, that must be clear to anyone with as much as half a brain cell. You are just repeating the long refuted propaganda of the bitcoin brothers. They are just looking for sheep they can sell their holdings to.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  4. #7004
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    Well, only 7 days to go until ARB hits the 400p I predicted it would hit by end of June. Just a mere 220% rise needed this week from current price and it's there.....

  5. #7005
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Haha, what a pile of idiocy.

    El Salvador will never mine a single bitcoin with volcano energy, that must be clear to anyone with as much as half a brain cell. You are just repeating the long refuted propaganda of the bitcoin brothers. They are just looking for sheep they can sell their holdings to.


    Yippee, for once I get to call "WRONG" on you.

    El Salvador already generates 25% of its power from their volcanoes and already does some BTC mining using that power.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothe...in_El_Salvador


    (This PDF takes a second to load)

    https://www.esmap.org/sites/esmap.or...20Salvador.pdf

  6. #7006
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Yippee, for once I get to call "WRONG" on you.

    El Salvador already generates 25% of its power from their volcanoes and already does some BTC mining using that power.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geothe...in_El_Salvador


    (This PDF takes a second to load)

    https://www.esmap.org/sites/esmap.or...20Salvador.pdf
    Okay, then let's put money where the mouth is:

    China is mining about 65% of all bitcoin at the moment. If all of that capacity has to go elsewhere, sure the El Dorado of bitcoin will attract plenty of new business?

    If you take the other side of this bet, I will pay 500 quid into the fundraiser if the total clean energy bitcoin mining in El Salvador will reach 1% of global mining in any month between now and December.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  7. #7007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Turned out a nice trade, bought back yesterday at $522 for a profit of almost $100 per share.

    Trouble is, I sold again at $545 and it continued climbing to close at $553 - hasn't traded yet in pre-market but indicated $572/$579. I bought some Tesla shares against this, have a long Tesla/short MSTR position now. I still have a lot of Tesla puts for the July expiry, so this is a tactical bet more rather than a strategic view (well, I just say that MSTR is a bigger pile of cr*p than TSLA). Might close either one of the legs at a heartbeat when trading begins.
    I also sold more MSTR at $572, a move which looked a bit questionable when the stock hit $586 shortly after the open.

    But all is well that ends well: MSTR at $562, Tesla at $656 (bought at $626). Bitcoin lower at $33.3k.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  8. #7008
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If you take the other side of this bet, I will pay 500 quid into the fundraiser if the total clean energy bitcoin mining in El Salvador will reach 1% of global mining in any month between now and December.
    Certainly won't happen before December. They need to build a new geothermal power station first, which has only just started being drilled into the side of a volcano.

    Plus, the world is sold out of mining rigs until early next year. I think ePic (who Argo buy most of their kit from) are sold out on pre-orders for over a year and are not accepting any new client business at all.

    Maybe by December 2022, but even that's a long shot for El Salvador.

  9. #7009
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Certainly won't happen before December. They need to build a new geothermal power station first, which has only just started being drilled into the side of a volcano.

    Plus, the world is sold out of mining rigs until early next year. I think ePic (who Argo buy most of their kit from) are sold out on pre-orders for over a year and are not accepting any new client business at all.

    Maybe by December 2022, but even that's a long shot for El Salvador.
    I don't know where you get your news from but it was all over the internet that manufacturers have stopped selling because used rigs offered out of China have destroyed market prices. Apparently they are sitting on mountains of supplies and there are no buyers for new rigs.

    Okay then, I have another bet: by December 2021, bitcoin will have below 5% of adaptation in El Salvador for non-financial transactions. Actually, I think it won't be legal tender anymore by then but that may take a little longer and I don't think it makes sense to do those bets for more than six months.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  10. #7010
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I agree with that. (I also do not think they will have more than 5-10% adoption by Christmas)

    I’m not a massive BTC fanboy by the way. I used to think it’s was as ridiculous as you do until about 4 months ago. Now I can see the benefits of it and I do think it will become (more of) a mainstream store of value.

    I honestly can’t see it going to zero anymore. I’m sure there will be ups and downs, but I don’t think it’ll ever go to zero.

    Anyway - this chatter should be on the Bitcoin thread.

  11. #7011
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I agree with that. (I also do not think they will have more than 5-10% adoption by Christmas)

    I’m not a massive BTC fanboy by the way. I used to think it’s was as ridiculous as you do until about 4 months ago. Now I can see the benefits of it and I do think it will become (more of) a mainstream store of value.

    I honestly can’t see it going to zero anymore. I’m sure there will be ups and downs, but I don’t think it’ll ever go to zero.

    Anyway - this chatter should be on the Bitcoin thread.
    less than 3% - 500 quid?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  12. #7012
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    I don’t think there would be any solid way to verify it one way or another.

    Sure will be interesting to see where thing go.

  13. #7013
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    My point is that all this news about a Central American dictator adopting bitcoin as a currency when we all know it isn't a means for payment is nothing but a gigantic marketing bullshit campaign. It makes zero sense and has zero implication on the real world.

    There will be zero adoption, zero clean-energy mining with volcanic energy, most likely the whole thing will simply never happen.

    But lots of gullible sheep will buy bitcoin because legal tender. Result.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  14. #7014
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    A long, but eye-opening read (to me anyway)

    https://prospect.org/power/how-the-g...eEdC8IY.reddit

  15. #7015
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    My point is that all this news about a Central American dictator adopting bitcoin as a currency when we all know it isn't a means for payment is nothing but a gigantic marketing bullshit campaign. It makes zero sense and has zero implication on the real world.

    There will be zero adoption, zero clean-energy mining with volcanic energy, most likely the whole thing will simply never happen.

    But lots of gullible sheep will buy bitcoin because legal tender. Result.
    I love how the plot gets weirder...It's like something out of a Bond film...Central American dictator, Volcanic energy etc.

  16. #7016
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    Quote Originally Posted by Passenger View Post
    I love how the plot gets weirder...It's like something out of a Bond film...Central American dictator, Volcanic energy etc.
    The whole shitshow is so crazy that you'd think any rational person would question this nonsense - but here we are, serious newspapers writing about it as if it was real news without even a shred of irony. Reminds me of Tesla.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  17. #7017
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The whole shitshow is so crazy that you'd think any rational person would question this nonsense - but here we are, serious newspapers writing about it as if it was real news without even a shred of irony. Reminds me of Tesla.
    https://twitter.com/twocommapauper/s...193085952?s=20

  18. #7018
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    What’s driving the Tesla March? Currently at $675 in the pre market. Still a lot of believers!

  19. #7019
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    The whole shitshow is so crazy that you'd think any rational person would question this nonsense - but here we are, serious newspapers writing about it as if it was real news without even a shred of irony. Reminds me of Tesla.
    I’ve read a lot of mainstream and crypto media about it all lately and so far you are the only source of disbelief and FUD about it that I’ve registered.

    Maybe it’s just you that’s got it wrong on this one.

    BTC’s issues with being used as a day to day currency, are valid, I’m not sure how they’ll deal with that issue. But I can’t see why the President of a country with access to “free” geothermal energy would not want to use some of that power to dig up money out of thin air.

    Makes perfect sense to me!

  20. #7020
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Could be a good moment to buy some airlines like IAG and EasyJet.

    If Grant Shapps announces, today, a relaxation of the Covid rules for flyers then there will be a pump.

  21. #7021
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I’ve read a lot of mainstream and crypto media about it all lately and so far you are the only source of disbelief and FUD about it that I’ve registered.

    Maybe it’s just you that’s got it wrong on this one.

    BTC’s issues with being used as a day to day currency, are valid, I’m not sure how they’ll deal with that issue. But I can’t see why the President of a country with access to “free” geothermal energy would not want to use some of that power to dig up money out of thin air.

    Makes perfect sense to me!
    Well that's exactly my point: it's a complete bonkers story, but everyone reports is as if it was the most normal thing in the world.

    Well, it's a country that has been using a foreign currency as legal tender because they have shown they cannot manage their own, the story has that going for it.

    And if you think geothermal energy is for free and results in cheaper bitcoin mining, I have a bridge that you should have a look at.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  22. #7022
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    What’s driving the Tesla March? Currently at $675 in the pre market. Still a lot of believers!
    It's because I bought yesterday.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  23. #7023
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I’ve read a lot of mainstream and crypto media about it all lately and so far you are the only source of disbelief and FUD about it that I’ve registered.

    Maybe it’s just you that’s got it wrong on this one.

    BTC’s issues with being used as a day to day currency, are valid, I’m not sure how they’ll deal with that issue. But I can’t see why the President of a country with access to “free” geothermal energy would not want to use some of that power to dig up money out of thin air.

    Makes perfect sense to me!
    Free geothermal energy: El Salvador is importing 25% of its energy today, making it the largest importer of electricity in America. It also has the highest energy cost in Central America, making access to electricity already a privilege. Even after all planned geothermal projects are in place (if they will be built, which is dependent on World Bank funding), El Salvador will still be an electricity importer. Given the high energy price, there is no way bitcoin mining can be done profitably in El Salvador and as a result, electricity prices would even surge higher. Read this piece by the World Bank for more info.

    What Bukele is trying to pull off, is to find a way forward for the country without giving in to US and World Bank demands to re-instate an independent judiciary and the powers of the elected parliament. So the bitcoin introduction is aiding him to make even more of a totalitarian state out of El Salvador.

    And just to be clear: Under the bitcoin law, goods would never be priced in bitcoin. They would continue to be priced in Dollars and the payment would be calculated at the moment of payment - which is the exact opposite of what bitcoin was invented for. Also, they have no concept how the merchants should manage their volatility/currency risk on the bitcoins they receive as payment: it has been suggested that they are instantly re-converted into Dollars (which still leaves a few minutes gap), but what's the point of the introduction of bitcoin if it is only to transfer money from one mobile phone to another (that has been solved years ago by Paypal or Klarna or any other of the thousands of mobile payment apps). And how they will make sure that the transactions are processed given the current fees of about 8 Dollars per transaction is also beyond me. Bukele is sure that one can buy a single tomato with bitcoin (sort of a requirement for a legal tender), but how does that work with 8 Dollars fee?

    But since you read a lot of mainstream and crypto media about it all lately, I am sure you can answer these questions?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  24. #7024
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    No, I cannot.

  25. #7025
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Could be a good moment to buy some airlines like IAG and EasyJet.

    If Grant Shapps announces, today, a relaxation of the Covid rules for flyers then there will be a pump.
    I bought some more Menzies, if it does 400p (pre-Covid price) I will be very pleased. Might take a few months to get there but I think it will.

  26. #7026
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    A long, but eye-opening read (to me anyway)

    https://prospect.org/power/how-the-g...eEdC8IY.reddit
    AMC could also be interesting.

  27. #7027
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    What’s driving the Tesla March? Currently at $675 in the pre market. Still a lot of believers!
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It's because I bought yesterday.
    If you really want to know what's driving Tesla share up today?

    800,000 call options bought with expiry tomorrow, strikes between $670 and $725.

    That is 80 Mio Tesla shares that the market makers have to buy to hedge the exposure.

    This is what's happening with tesla every time bad news is coming out. A massive market manipulation in order to protect the long positions of a couple of funds and Tesla insiders (the Musks and their buddies).

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  28. #7028
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    So in laymans terms is this 'playing the game' or 'illegal'

    And if illegal why is no-one doing anything about it?

    Is it any wonder people think it's a rigged game..

  29. #7029
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    So in laymans terms is this 'playing the game' or 'illegal'

    And if illegal why is no-one doing anything about it?

    Is it any wonder people think it's a rigged game..
    Well, anybody is allowed to purchase call options, and some players have so much money that their trading moves the market. This much is legal and normal.

    But then what's happening here is that they buy these options with the sole purpose to move the market (it makes no real economic sense otherwise), then it becomes questionable. It is illegal to move markets in order to profit from it, but it's very difficult to build a case and to prove intent. It becomes outright criminal if a couple of accounts collude to bundle their buying power to move markets and it is prison-level criminal if it also includes insider information from the company.

    Given the amount of money at stake and the character of the people involved, I am pretty sure that all of the above applies, including the use of insider information. But since the SEC doesn't seem to care, fraud has become the single best performing asset class on US stock exchanges. There are many examples, but Tesla is the fraud poster child.

    Yes, that part of the game is rigged, criminally rigged.

    Naked shorts? Still a joke of a conspiracy theory.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  30. #7030
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    Startling. It really is.

  31. #7031
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    I’ve read a lot of mainstream and crypto media about it all lately and so far you are the only source of disbelief and FUD about it that I’ve registered.

    Maybe it’s just you that’s got it wrong on this one.

    BTC’s issues with being used as a day to day currency, are valid, I’m not sure how they’ll deal with that issue. But I can’t see why the President of a country with access to “free” geothermal energy would not want to use some of that power to dig up money out of thin air.

    Makes perfect sense to me!
    It seems that there's even going to be an air drop.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...h=39678e7e109c

    Who's going to object to that?

  32. #7032
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    Quote Originally Posted by petethegeek View Post
    It seems that there's even going to be an air drop.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberth...h=39678e7e109c

    Who's going to object to that?
    I still don't understand how a currency can be "legal tender" if nothing is ever going to be priced in it. Prices will still be quoted in US Dollars and the amount of bitcoin due will have to be calculated for every transaction using be that moment's FX rate. How can a country have two "legal tenders" that are floating freely against each other at 100% volatility?

    But adoption, bro.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  33. #7033
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    Where were the signs?

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  34. #7034
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    MSTR is off to the races again.

    12% up so far….

    https://uk.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-MSTR/

  35. #7035
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    MSTR is off to the races again.

    12% up so far….

    https://uk.tradingview.com/symbols/NASDAQ-MSTR/
    Crazy. Just realised I still have a tiny short, only 50 shares but that cost me 3,000 Euro today.

    Was short 300 last week...
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  36. #7036
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    Whoops. How does a pro trader "forget" about a £25,000 short....?? LOL



    Everything seems to be going up just now. Am getting ready to sell my TIGR if we see $29 in the next 20 minutes.

  37. #7037
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Whoops. How does a pro trader "forget" about a £25,000 short....?? LOL



    Everything seems to be going up just now. Am getting ready to sell my TIGR if we see $29 in the next 20 minutes.
    Took in my short in in deals of 50 each and didn't realise that the last order never filled.

    Not such a big thing, made good money on the short on Friday but stupid nevertheless. Would have been plenty of time to close pre market, but honestly didn't realise that was still open.

    Other than that, a good day today.


    Oh, and I am no pro trader.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  38. #7038
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    I certainly wouldn't put myself forward as an expert in these matters, however I am unable to see how this could be interpreted as a positive development.

    "Argo Blockchain Gets Bitcoin-Backed Loan of GBP14 Million"

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ar...n-271624951340

    I'm guessing details on the rate and conditions of the loan make for interesting reading.

  39. #7039
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    Suspect they want the money to quickly buy a shed load of Chinese mining machines.

    I suspect their mined BTC for July will be huge and there will be a big jump in the share price. Moreso if they finally get uplisted to Nasdaq.

    June’s mining figures are expected to be their biggest ever but July could be huge.

    Based on their fundamental against RIOT and MARA their share price should be higher.

    They had no debt until this announcement. They still have no debt really as they’ve just taken out a loan against their Bitcoin holding. Much cleverer option than selling their bitcoins, even if the loan is at 6 or 8%.

  40. #7040
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Suspect they want the money to quickly buy a shed load of Chinese mining machines.

    I suspect their mined BTC for July will be huge and there will be a big jump in the share price. Moreso if they finally get uplisted to Nasdaq.

    June’s mining figures are expected to be their biggest ever but July could be huge.

    Based on their fundamental against RIOT and MARA their share price should be higher.

    They had no debt until this announcement. They still have no debt really as they’ve just taken out a loan against their Bitcoin holding. Much cleverer option than selling their bitcoins, even if the loan is at 6 or 8%.
    If you take out a loan against bitcoin you have no debt? Does it matter which collateral? Loans against houses no debt either? Car loans?

    And if it is a better decision to borrow or sell bitcoin will be determined by the future development of the price of bitcoin. The jury is still out on that one.

    In any case, a loan against bitcoin must be the most expensive loan one can take, pretty clear evidence that they don't have any other collateral available or they would have used that instead.

    Double digits in July and a lot lower from there.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  41. #7041
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Double digits in July and a lot lower from there.
    Oh, how wrong I was. Just checked the pre-market and Argo is trading at 420.69p.

    Congratulations, Ryan.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  42. #7042
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Not sure what to do again now.

    Are we thinking that this recent general market boom is likely to pull back again? Surely it cannot keep going up from here?


    I put the full ISA allowance of mine, my wife and two kids into VNRT (SP500 tracker) in April and it's now near 20% up.

    I had said to myself it it gets to $77.77 I'd sell and sit out waiting for the dip to buy back in. It's looking like hitting that figure in the next few minutes...


    But now the time is here, it's hard to make the decision to sell, and all the worries about trying to time the market come flooding back.



    What's the consensus?

  43. #7043
    Master
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
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    Northern Ireland
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    6,697
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Not sure what to do again now.

    Are we thinking that this recent general market boom is likely to pull back again? Surely it cannot keep going up from here?


    I put the full ISA allowance of mine, my wife and two kids into VNRT (SP500 tracker) in April and it's now near 20% up.

    I had said to myself it it gets to $77.77 I'd sell and sit out waiting for the dip to buy back in. It's looking like hitting that figure in the next few minutes...


    But now the time is here, it's hard to make the decision to sell, and all the worries about trying to time the market come flooding back.



    What's the consensus?
    Sell, buy tin foil, make hat, await the forthcoming

  44. #7044
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Feb 2012
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    Lëtzebuerg
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    38,754
    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Sell, buy tin foil, make hat, await the forthcoming
    What he said.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  45. #7045
    Master
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    1
    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Not sure what to do again now.

    Are we thinking that this recent general market boom is likely to pull back again? Surely it cannot keep going up from here?


    I put the full ISA allowance of mine, my wife and two kids into VNRT (SP500 tracker) in April and it's now near 20% up.

    I had said to myself it it gets to $77.77 I'd sell and sit out waiting for the dip to buy back in. It's looking like hitting that figure in the next few minutes...


    But now the time is here, it's hard to make the decision to sell, and all the worries about trying to time the market come flooding back.



    What's the consensus?
    What’s the point of making plans if you don’t follow them?

    If there is new information that changes things then the plan can be revised, if not then you should follow your original conviction.

  46. #7046
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    London
    Posts
    19,615
    Well barring a miraculous last 40 minutes of trading in the UK I'll be some way off the 'Argo at 400p by end June' proclamation so I've taken my medicine.

    Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk

  47. #7047
    Not another bet with Raffe is it, the Fundy has earned more from these than the main forum

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  48. #7048
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Feb 2012
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Not another bet with Raffe is it, the Fundy has earned more from these than the main forum

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
    No, this was a bet against himself.

    Tried to generate some new bets last week but no takers amongst the staunch bitcoiners.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  49. #7049
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    No, this was a bet against himself.

    Tried to generate some new bets last week but no takers amongst the staunch bitcoiners.
    Even with dictators using volcanoes to fire up some Windows 7 lappies too the moon I'm in!

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

  50. #7050
    Master mr noble's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Location
    Cambs
    Posts
    4,662
    If you’d like a bet…..


    I bet that Argo hits £4 before the end of the year.

    That’s it. If it gets to 400p at any point before 2022,
    I win. If not, I lose.

    £30 bet anyone? To the fundraiser on New Year’s Eve.

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