When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

[Justin Case]

I know, and the Vanguard stats are superb

As already said, if you are happy paying more for less, are convinced of U.K. outperformance or whatever else is in your mind convincing you then carry on.

You did ask.

[thenikjones]

No - never invested before, however I have watched my pension go up and down over the years and always recover. I do feel ready to wait it out and fancy something which is going to work harder for me, - which is why i'm tempted by the 80% VLS one, however if there is a good chance of a crash soon, what with so much money being pumped into the economy... - i'm open to suggestions. I was looking at "evestor" also, which is also beginner friendly and low fees.

With so much uncertainty in the world at the moment - I don't know what to do, - is there much of a chance that the stock market could crash and not recover for a VERY long time (10 years)? Or is a crash more likely to be 1 - 2 years?

I am entirely passive investor and mainly use Vanguard funds - some VWRL, some in Life Strategy 80

If you are starting I really recommend monevator.com - good articles for beginners. Good recent article on bonds, maybe they would suit you better?

The market will crash. No-one knows when. I read the line "it climbs up the stairs and goes down the escalator" but if you assume over time it'll go up then ignore the crashes. Easy to say and you'll only know how you will react when it crashes. The only one I have experienced was in 2020 and I ignored it - but I had a pretty secure job and no mortgage so "paper losses" * didn't worry me. Next time around - who knows? If you can follow the mantra "Do not sell. Do. Not. Sell. DO NOT EFFING SELL" then you'll cope with a crash - unless you really need those funds, in which case why are you investing them?

There is a lot of interesting commentary in this thread - take Raffe for a start - but he is absolutely NOT a 100% passive investor and I doubt you can do what he does.

* Raffe hates this term but for a 100% passive investor, it makes sense to me - I gain this week, I lose next week, but until I actually sell, the loss or gain isn't real to me

Whether investing is good for 3-5 years is another question - can you afford to lose 50% and allow it to recover? If not then don't invest, would be my advice.

FWIW I use HL for my SIPP and Vanguard for my S&S ISA which is not ideal - if you fancy the global HSBC fund Ally/Justin mentions, the fees are about 0.1% less than the very similar VWRL and Vanguard ISA is for Vanguard funds only. Who to use - look on monevator... If you are passive, 0.1% fees is about half the cost so worth saving.

[Raffe]

While I am rolling on the floor laughing about the Technoking's BTC tweet, it has also hit my Coinbase position. Tomorrow is earnings, but unfortunately only after hours. I hope we get there without further losses.

Rough day for Coinbase, after $306 yesterday and $285 ealy today, now at $259 and below my purchase price. Bitter, considering it was 18% yesterday. But then my short S&P is paying handsomely and I also bought 2k of AMC shares pre-market, up 20% at almost $13.

[Raffe]

Heavy call buying in Tesla again, strikes all the way to $650 with expiry tomorrow. A lot of money is spent to prop up the stock.

Good luck, don't think it'll work this time.

[PJdB]

I am entirely passive investor and mainly use Vanguard funds - some VWRL, some in Life Strategy 80

If you are starting I really recommend monevator.com - good articles for beginners. Good recent article on bonds, maybe they would suit you better?

The market will crash. No-one knows when. I read the line "it climbs up the stairs and goes down the escalator" but if you assume over time it'll go up then ignore the crashes. Easy to say and you'll only know how you will react when it crashes. The only one I have experienced was in 2020 and I ignored it - but I had a pretty secure job and no mortgage so "paper losses" * didn't worry me. Next time around - who knows? If you can follow the mantra "Do not sell. Do. Not. Sell. DO NOT EFFING SELL" then you'll cope with a crash - unless you really need those funds, in which case why are you investing them?

There is a lot of interesting commentary in this thread - take Raffe for a start - but he is absolutely NOT a 100% passive investor and I doubt you can do what he does.

* Raffe hates this term but for a 100% passive investor, it makes sense to me - I gain this week, I lose next week, but until I actually sell, the loss or gain isn't real to me

Whether investing is good for 3-5 years is another question - can you afford to lose 50% and allow it to recover? If not then don't invest, would be my advice.

FWIW I use HL for my SIPP and Vanguard for my S&S ISA which is not ideal - if you fancy the global HSBC fund Ally/Justin mentions, the fees are about 0.1% less than the very similar VWRL and Vanguard ISA is for Vanguard funds only. Who to use - look on monevator... If you are passive, 0.1% fees is about half the cost so worth saving.

Thank you for your post :)
I had a read of a few monevator articles - good site and well written articles

At the risk of asking another stupid question: If the idea is to invest long term - ride out stock market slumps, and bonds are in place to shock absorb crashes purely for psychological reasons, why have them at all? During stock market crashes when bonds go up and equities go down, you won't be selling anyway. And if bonds decrease whilst equities go up, - apart from making you feel a little better when you might take a look at your portfolio, is there any other unemotional point of shock absorbing with bonds? I'm sure I'm missing something as it can't be that simple

I do fancy circa 80% equities, however I'm in my mid forties, so will consider the rule of thumb ~60% equities instead

[ryanb741]

Interesting why Vanguard LS100 would outperform HSBC AW Index as surely they are the same funds? I actually moved my LS100 to the HSBC Fund as the management charges are cheaper

Crack on paying more for less then.

[noTAGlove]

Thank you for your post :)
I had a read of a few monevator articles - good site and well written articles

At the risk of asking another stupid question: If the idea is to invest long term - ride out stock market slumps, and bonds are in place to shock absorb crashes purely for psychological reasons, why have them at all? During stock market crashes when bonds go up and equities go down, you won't be selling anyway. And if bonds decrease whilst equities go up, - apart from making you feel a little better when you might take a look at your portfolio, is there any other unemotional point of shock absorbing with bonds? I'm sure I'm missing something as it can't be that simple

I do fancy circa 80% equities, however I'm in my mid forties, so will consider the rule of thumb ~60% equities instead

I have a sizeable cash ISA that is maturing at the end of the month which will drop savings interest rate from 2% to 0.4%. This is in addition to equities I already own. I’m probably 70% cash, excluding my pension. I don’t want to be long on cash.

Psychologically it is very difficult to invest in stock markets at all time highs, and in some cases at stratospheric valuations. Maybe with the exception of the FTSE which is 10% off highs, but it has done nothing over the last 10 years.

U.K. CPI inflation is 0.7%, if you believe that, and likely to quicken it pace to 2% over the next year.

Although it pains me to do this I have taken a decision to park most of this cash at 0.4% for a year. This will cost me 1 to 1.5% of my purchasing power over the year, but rather that than risk a 30% loss in the stock market.

If that happens that is very psychologically damaging as you have not seen any of the rises, but taken the full part in the falls. If the US goes hiss or pop, no amount of diversification can truly help.

Equities are heavily overvalued, and that doesn’t mean they can’t go higher, but I see the risk more to the downside than upside over the next year.

I am basically betting that the US Federal Reserve will quantitatively tighten/raise interest rates by this time next year, and maybe sooner. Inflation is quickening at a pace in the US, and if there are signs that this is transitory I may well change my mind.

The Fed last QTd back late 2018 and stock market tanked 20% in a couple of months, only quickly recovers when monetary policy was further loosened.

Some of the cash will go into low risk, low reward assets like U.K. utilities equities, but most of it will stay waiting, keeping a very, very watchful eye on US inflation data.

Only time will tell if I have made the correct decision.

[Daveya.]

Guy who sells electric cars complains other stuff uses to much electricity . Cant wait for Musk to fall off his perch, can't make this up

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[Raffe]

I have a sizeable cash ISA that is maturing at the end of the month which will drop savings interest rate from 2% to 0.4%. This is in addition to equities I already own. I’m probably 70% cash, excluding my pension. I don’t want to be long on cash.

Psychologically it is very difficult to invest in stock markets at all time highs, and in some cases at stratospheric valuations. Maybe with the exception of the FTSE which is 10% off highs, but it has done nothing over the last 10 years.

U.K. CPI inflation is 0.7%, if you believe that, and likely to quicken it pace to 2% over the next year.

Although it pains me to do this I have taken a decision to park most of this cash at 0.4% for a year. This will cost me 1 to 1.5% of my purchasing power over the year, but rather that than risk a 30% loss in the stock market.

If that happens that is very psychologically damaging as you have not seen any of the rises, but taken the full part in the falls. If the US goes hiss or pop, no amount of diversification can truly help.

Equities are heavily overvalued, and that doesn’t mean they can’t go higher, but I see the risk more to the downside than upside over the next year.

I am basically betting that the US Federal Reserve will quantitatively tighten/raise interest rates by this time next year, and maybe sooner. Inflation is quickening at a pace in the US, and if there are signs that this is transitory I may well change my mind.

The Fed last QTd back late 2018 and stock market tanked 20% in a couple of months, only quickly recovers when monetary policy was further loosened.

Some of the cash will go into low risk, low reward assets like U.K. utilities equities, but most of it will stay waiting, keeping a very, very watchful eye on US inflation data.

Only time will tell if I have made the correct decision.

Have fun staying poor.

[thenikjones]

Thank you for your post :)
I had a read of a few monevator articles - good site and well written articles

At the risk of asking another stupid question: If the idea is to invest long term - ride out stock market slumps, and bonds are in place to shock absorb crashes purely for psychological reasons, why have them at all? During stock market crashes when bonds go up and equities go down, you won't be selling anyway. And if bonds decrease whilst equities go up, - apart from making you feel a little better when you might take a look at your portfolio, is there any other unemotional point of shock absorbing with bonds? I'm sure I'm missing something as it can't be that simple

I do fancy circa 80% equities, however I'm in my mid forties, so will consider the rule of thumb ~60% equities instead

Your bond question is pretty much exactly answered by the recent Monevator bond article, I think - if you need to sell (you are in de-accumulation, as they put it) then being able to sell bonds that have stayed flat or risen is better than having to sell shares that have dropped. If you rebalance annually (say 80% shares 20% bonds) then each year you are selling your gains and buying the losses, which balances out - I don't do this but I think that is the theory.

You could buy 50% LS60 and 50% LS80 and you've sort-of got an LS70, of course...

[Taxboy]

If you want to spread the risk a little more, why not consider making monthly payments into your investments, so you don't have to worry quite so much about timing. If you google pound cost averaging it explains the concept

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[Taxboy]

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-star-investor

Someone else other than Raffe who is moving away from Tesla

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[noTAGlove]

Have fun staying poor.

C’mon then genius. What do you recommend?

[Raffe]

C’mon then genius. What do you recommend?

My suggestion: stop believing the FUD. The five year inflation forecast as expressed by inflation-linked bonds is currently the lowest it has been in a long time. That is what the smart money says. Stop always following the fearmongering prophets. The economy is doing well and that is why there are capacity bottlenecks, which translate into price pressure. Higher prices are an incentive for businesses to create more capacity, and then it all levels out again. Happens every couple of years and is called an economic cycle.

We will see volatility, that's why I wouldn't just pour the money into the markets. Decide your investment amount, divide it into six rates and pour one of them into the market every three months. Easy. Or stay poor. Also easy.

[peterdo]

I took some value from the returns over the past 12 months but remain invested in those firms that will thrive because they will survive in sectors that will bounce hardest.

Luxury goods will boom, there is so much cash built up over the last 18 months m, it’s going to get spent.

Patience with travel firms and airlines will pay off, only the strongest will survive and capacity will be decimated driving up prices

Need to be prepared for the dips and not react negatively...or pay someone to make the investment decisions!!


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[Raffe]

Rough day for Coinbase, after $306 yesterday and $285 ealy today, now at $259 and below my purchase price. Bitter, considering it was 18% yesterday. But then my short S&P is paying handsomely and I also bought 2k of AMC shares pre-market, up 20% at almost $13.

Another crazy day today. Bought some more COIN below $260 yesterday just before their earnings release, which resulted in some wild swings but very nice upwards slope all morning and hit $283 before opening - and then got slammed hard to $260s right after the bell. Tried a couple of breakouts but failed every time. Just sold at $259 because I am getting worried that the US will take steps against crypto exchanges following the Colonial pipeline debacle. Maybe I am FUD here, but the position was very large and didn't want to have that risk over the weekend.

[Raffe]

Another crazy day today. Bought some more COIN below $260 yesterday just before their earnings release, which resulted in some wild swings but very nice upwards slope all morning and hit $283 before opening - and then got slammed hard to $260s right after the bell. Tried a couple of breakouts but failed every time. Just sold at $259 because I am getting worried that the US will take steps against crypto exchanges following the Colonial pipeline debacle. Maybe I am FUD here, but the position was very large and didn't want to have that risk over the weekend.

Lucky escape selling COIN on Friday, today weak from the get go on Elongate and then recovered into the close - only to run into a convertible offering by the company! Nice they let all the insiders sell first before the company itself sells. What a shambolic treatment of retail IPO buyers. I still think it's a nice income play, but will look to buy below $200 now.

Elon today in Germany inspecting the new gigafactory, with a single interview pushing the opening date further back (which would require an ad-hoc for any other company on this planet), Closer to home, another dark cloud forming over Tesla with the LA Times reporting about a DMV investigation of FSD fraud. I am seeing massive class actions coming up, with tens of thousand of customers asking for their $10,000 back for a product which never existed. This can turn very ugly very fast.

Tesla is “under review” by the California Department of Motor Vehicles to determine whether the company misleads customers by advertising its “full self-driving capability” option, the agency told The Times. A Tesla equipped with the $10,000 FSD package can change lanes, take highway exit ramps, and stop at traffic lights and stop signs on its own, the company says. However, it is not capable of fully driving itself, according to widely accepted engineering standards. Asked for detail, DMV spokesperson Anita Gore said via email, “The DMV cannot comment on the pending review.” She did list the penalties that might be applied if a company is found to have violated DMV regulations that prohibit misleading advertising concerning automated vehicles.
LA Times

In other news, still short sizeable position in S&P500 futures (from 4,231 on Friday), came close at one point to day but recovery into close. Conviction is rather high, going to stick to this one unless we see violent upside move. And then the AMC position looks like it's ready to take off (already 31% in profit but this has much more upside left in it).

New position today: long RAVN @ $42.25.

[Raffe]

And then the AMC position looks like it's ready to take off (already 31% in profit but this has much more upside left in it).

AMC up almost $2 since I wrote this a good two hours ago.

[Raffe]

New position today: long RAVN @ $42.25.

Seems to be my lucky week:

[noTAGlove]

Michael Burry $500+ million shorting Tesla. Many have lost their shirts in the past on this strategy.

https://news.sky.com/story/big-short...hares-12309899

Edit - he is also shorting long bonds, on the basis US inflation will pick up and hit the price, and then he can buy them back more cheaply.

Let’s see if he is as successful as he was in the GFC.

[petethegeek]

Michael Burry $500+ million shorting Tesla. Many have lost their shirts in the past on this strategy.

https://news.sky.com/story/big-short...hares-12309899

As is picked up by the chart in that link, at one point yesterday their price dipped to within a dozen dollars of the lowest price since November last year.

[Raffe]

Michael Burry $500+ million shorting Tesla. Many have lost their shirts in the past on this strategy.

https://news.sky.com/story/big-short...hares-12309899

Edit - he is also shorting long bonds, on the basis US inflation will pick up and hit the price, and then he can buy them back more cheaply.

Let’s see if he is as successful as he was in the GFC.

He's not shorting $500 mio - that is the notional. Depending on strike price and tenor, his financial commitment is much much lower.

Using the same methodology, my short is worth over $3 Mio (which it isn't).

But every little bit helps.


PS: somebody just published a lengthy article about the '$500 Mio position' here.

[Raffe]

Now the S&P coming down and the position turns green.

Only Tesla left, everytime the sucker approaches low 560's we are seeing a ton of short-term option buying. They must run out of spare money at one point?

Rumours of large margin calls below $540-$550. Bring them on!

[Raffe]

Interesting read: The ECB Financial Stability Review.

Read it, you won't regret it.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financ...727fe4.da.html

[Daveya.]

Interesting read: The ECB Financial Stability Review.

Read it, you won't regret it.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financ...727fe4.da.html

I always go to the bottom and hope for a soundbite summary , sadly this report is too good for that so I'll have to read it

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[Raffe]

TSLA: If we manage to break below $550 today, it's "$420.69, here we come".

[~dadam02~]

Absolutely loving this, patience will be rewarded.

[Raffe]

I still think there is a big chance of a bloodbath, maybe just not today.

....but maybe today?

Good thing I left my shorts on from 4131. Just closed half of the S&P short, looking to sell into rally after opening (which may never happen).

[~dadam02~]

Bingo, into the 540's.

[Daveya.]

Coindbase having a sweaty

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[Adge]

Coindbase having a sweaty

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Coinbase is reportedly down for a massive amount of users as the panic selling continues...

Hopefully they now all realize they shouldn't use some arbitrary currency in an unregulated market that is too easily manipulated as a 'store of value'!

[noTAGlove]

Surely with all the leverage being utilised, margin calls have to at some point cause a bit of a cascade downwards?

[Raffe]

Surely with all the leverage being utilised, margin calls have to at some point cause a bit of a cascade downwards?

If you missed it: that happened about an hour ago, with bitcoin hitting $30k, Ethereum $1850 and Doge $0.21.
Doge lost more than 50% in three hours. Ethereum 40%.

[Raffe]

....but maybe today?

Good thing I left my shorts on from 4131. Just closed half of the S&P short, looking to sell into rally after opening (which may never happen).

Sold S&P futures again, I think this will roll over.

[jon8oy]

Elon has logged back in.

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[Raffe]

Sold S&P futures again, I think this will roll over.

That was too early...

[Raffe]

Pay attention: https://www.tiktok.com/@bigstocktips...from_webapp=v1

[Raffe]

That was too early...

Sold more above 4100 and am short a double position now. Let's see where this goes.

[Chinnock]

Guy who sells electric cars complains other stuff uses to much electricity . Cant wait for Musk to fall off his perch, can't make this up

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Ironic that electric cars are all about not burning fossil fuels, when you need to burn the coal or fresh forests to produce electricity!

People are being sold a lie sadly.

[mr noble]

Pay attention: https://www.tiktok.com/@bigstocktips...from_webapp=v1

I like her big tips.

[petethegeek]

I dunno. She just doesn't seem to have quite the credentials Helen has.

PS Some of you may have missed it, but the Fintwit Trailer Park will soon have its very own cryptocoin.

[Raffe]

I dunno. She just doesn't seem to have quite the credentials Helen has.

PS Some of you may have missed it, but the Fintwit Trailer Park will soon have its very own cryptocoin.

Haha, you following Rico.

The guy has issues....

[petethegeek]

Haha, you following Rico.

Oddly enough I had briefly considered posting this on the 'Pics of watches worn well thread'. However you can never quite tell how things are going to end up on there.

[Caruso]

My suggestion: stop believing the FUD. The five year inflation forecast as expressed by inflation-linked bonds is currently the lowest it has been in a long time. That is what the smart money says. Stop always following the fearmongering prophets. The economy is doing well and that is why there are capacity bottlenecks, which translate into price pressure. Higher prices are an incentive for businesses to create more capacity, and then it all levels out again. Happens every couple of years and is called an economic cycle.

We will see volatility, that's why I wouldn't just pour the money into the markets. Decide your investment amount, divide it into six rates and pour one of them into the market every three months. Easy. Or stay poor. Also easy.

I'd agree with this approach, If you have a lump sum to invest and are worried about which direction the markets are going to go, then splitting it and investing the same amount regularly over time will ensure that you buy more unit/shares when they are cheap than you will when they are expensive - unless they are constantly going up of course. Even in that case you won't lose money, just not make as much as you would had you invested it all up front.

[Raffe]

AMC up almost $2 since I wrote this a good two hours ago.

AMC back above $15, this time I sold half my position at $15.60.

[Raffe]

The meme stocks are back. GME, AMC, KOSS, BB, EBON, CAN.

Full your boots. Not going to be for a week and 300%, but some gains to be made.

[Raffe]

AMC back above $15, this time I sold half my position at $15.60.

OMG, sold the rest at $16.45 yesterday and it hit $19 earlier today.

Well, I made $5 - but could have been $8 half a day later.

[mr noble]

TIGR and OUST are both having a good week. As are many stocks.

My TIGR is about 80% up and OUST is back in profit after being down since I bought it pre SPAC transition. (When it was CLA)

Don't plan to sell either just yet. Targeting $30 for TIGR and $20 for OUST before I sell. And even then, if the fundamentals still look good, I'll hold on.

TIGR (UP Fintech) posted figures that were broadly double the expectations in terms of profits and new subscribers.


For balance, I'm still stuffed on my MSTR and ARB buys.

[ryanb741]

I got out of ARB earlier at 145 having bought in a week or so back at 135 before it plummeted along with BTC. This was after selling much higher a week or so earlier before it dropped initially to 135 where I bought in again. Finally timed something ok.

I'll buy back in if it goes below 120 and I think it will as the fact BTC hasn't beaten off the drop and headed north of 50k again makes me think it is likely to go sub 30k before pumping at some stage.

I'm currently less 'Lambo' and more 'lamb doner kebab' but it all counts

[Passenger]

TIGR and OUST are both having a good week. As are many stocks.

My TIGR is about 80% up and OUST is back in profit after being down since I bought it pre SPAC transition. (When it was CLA)

Don't plan to sell either just yet. Targeting $30 for TIGR and $20 for OUST before I sell. And even then, if the fundamentals still look good, I'll hold on.

TIGR (UP Fintech) posted figures that were broadly double the expectations in terms of profits and new subscribers.


For balance, I'm still stuffed on my MSTR and ARB buys.

c'mon Tigr, Hadn't checked it for a bit...I need it to do a bit better yet before I'm up.