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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #7251
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Noted, but I’m curious do you hold any assets long term or are just constantly trading in and out on short timescales?
    I own some ETFs in the long account. Never touch.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  2. #7252
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Now back in the money with both trades. I am looking to sell into the bounce and go short at higher levels for another leg down tomorrow.
    Looks like everybody else and their dog had the same plan. Should have closed on break of 4315, but haven't.

    This is eating up most of the gains from my short Tesla and MicroStrategy positions. Not happy, this should have been the best day in months and was only moderately good.



    *stubborn: buying more at 4,301
    Last edited by Raffe; 20th September 2021 at 19:37.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  3. #7253
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I own some ETFs in the long account. Never touch.
    Care to share which ones?

  4. #7254
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Care to share which ones?
    Nothing scientific.

    20% SP500
    20% Eurostoxx
    20% MSCI EM
    20% Corp Bonds

    My main criteria for selecting the funds is the fee.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  5. #7255
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    *stubborn: buying more at 4,301
    ...and out with a profit at 4,328
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #7256
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    20% Eurostoxx
    Which one, isn’t there loads of them?

  7. #7257
    Craftsman Adge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    IBKR.

    Now back in the money with both trades. I am looking to sell into the bounce and go short at higher levels for another leg down tomorrow.
    Cool, thanks I'll check it out.

    Seems like you have some great timing and knowledge, what sort of indicators do you use for your swing trades if you don't mind sharing??

  8. #7258
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Just remember all the money central banks printed and pumped because of Covid. If they can do that for a pandemic they'll do it for an Evergrande - inspired crash.

  9. #7259
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Just remember all the money central banks printed and pumped because of Covid. If they can do that for a pandemic they'll do it for an Evergrande - inspired crash.
    I bet you 50 quid that they will do the opposite and will announce the beginning of tapering within a week.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  10. #7260
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adge View Post
    Cool, thanks I'll check it out.

    Seems like you have some great timing and knowledge, what sort of indicators do you use for your swing trades if you don't mind sharing??
    I am looking mostly at Bollinger bands. Will listen to well-done tech analysis as well, strong believer of trend breaks but I suck at drawing lines myself.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  11. #7261
    Craftsman Adge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I am looking mostly at Bollinger bands. Will listen to well-done tech analysis as well, strong believer of trend breaks but I suck at drawing lines myself.
    What sort of time frame do you usually look at? And what's your bread and butter.. these S&P contracts you mentioned above?

  12. #7262
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adge View Post
    What sort of time frame do you usually look at? And what's your bread and butter.. these S&P contracts you mentioned above?
    I look at 30m, 1h, 4h and 1d charts. Trading is mostly in ES futures, every now and then also Nasdaq, DJIA and Russel 2000, sometimes bitcoin and precious metals or oil.

    I also trade individual stocks, both long and short, mostly illiquid stuff that's bouncing around. And then I will have shorts in Tesla and Microstrategy most of the time, still believe both will drop 90%.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  13. #7263
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Which one, isn’t there loads of them?
    xtrackers
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  14. #7264
    Is the cat bouncing dead today or with a cheeky grin?

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  15. #7265
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Is the cat bouncing dead today or with a cheeky grin?

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
    Dunno, had an order overnight to go short at 4,378 but missed it by 2.5 points. Just ticking up again, let's see if I can get a fill (and if I still like the position by US market open).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  16. #7266
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I bet you haven't heard the best part of the Evergrande saga: its electric cars subsidiary China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd.

    Will this company make full circle, going from zero to almost $100 billion market cap and back to zero without having sold a single car? Chances are good.



    The whole story is here and it even puts Tesla to shame (note the article was published when the company hit peak market cap, isn't it always like this?).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  17. #7267
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I bet you haven't heard the best part of the Evergrande saga: its electric cars subsidiary China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group Ltd.

    Will this company make full circle, going from zero to almost $100 billion market cap and back to zero without having sold a single car? Chances are good.



    The whole story is here and it even puts Tesla to shame (note the article was published when the company hit peak market cap, isn't it always like this?).
    Wtf!

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  18. #7268
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Wtf!

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    Have you read this already? Will blow your mind.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  19. #7269
    Bloody hell

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  20. #7270
    So, state funded pyramid scheme that only worked if prices kept going up

    And as for the cars, makes Tesla look like saints

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  21. #7271
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    So, state funded pyramid scheme that only worked if prices kept going up

    And as for the cars, makes Tesla look like saints

    Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk
    Yes.

    You like it? Plenty more of that where this came from. China is corporate Wonderland.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  22. #7272
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Have you read this already? Will blow your mind.
    Very very sad. Behind all the skullduggery will be thousands of ordinary lives ruined.

  23. #7273
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    This is a diagram of Evergrande's simplified corporate structure from their 2017 annual report.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  24. #7274
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Just out: Evergrande missed payments in regards to bank loans yesterday. Immediate 10 point drop in S&P futures.

    Still a bit wobbly. I remain half a position short (had sold another lot higher at 4,388 but took back in at 4,375).
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  25. #7275
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Still short my half position ES futures (me coward, talked about it yesterday already, but then too scared to hold on to full position today). And Tesla and MSTR absolutely refuse to collapse. Maybe tomorrow?

    Good thing I am still short bitcoin, that was the best $$$-maker today.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  26. #7276
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    If this is to be believed, China are going to take control of Evergrande.

    https://asiamarkets.com/imminent-chi...-take-control/

  27. #7277
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    If this is to be believed, China are going to take control of Evergrande.

    https://asiamarkets.com/imminent-chi...-take-control/

    The Chinese were always going to fix/bodge this somehow ... their relentless progress to become the #1 world financial power won't allow some outfit like this to mess up the march ...

  28. #7278
    Master MrLion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The Chinese were always going to fix/bodge this somehow ... their relentless progress to become the #1 world financial power won't allow some outfit like this to mess up the march ...
    Gonna cost them $300B though - bet they wished they'd stuck to communism rather than this nasty capitalist stuff LOL`

    It's interesting though as it seems to have brought Chinese protesters onto the streets, wonder what CCP can look forward to further down the line


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  29. #7279
    Housing is huge for the commies, not just socially but economically

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  30. #7280
    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Housing is huge for the commies, not just socially but economically

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    Can I just say that's perhaps the most pointless post I've ever made and I retract it, not sure why I said it tbh

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  31. #7281
    Well the markets don't seem to mind the re-birth of communism

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  32. #7282
    Grand Master Seamaster73's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Well the markets don't seem to mind the re-birth of communism
    They got used to it when we nationalised all the banks.

  33. #7283
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Argo Blockchain's journey to £4 has taken the leap I've been waiting for.

    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...5473-11_f1.htm


    Pick all the holes you can, Raffe. (I'm sure there are a few. The dilution is not ideal, but it's pretty standard for a Nasdaq listing.)



    ETA - That F1 document is longer than the bible! Do people have to read and digest every word!??
    How's it going with the race to 400p?

    I don't think I have ever seen a secondary listing that has managed to nuke the main listing by 30% in two sessions. That new board of directors seems worth their money. Can only hope that they managed to sell their shares as quickly as the old board.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  34. #7284
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    I think crunch time is coming, a good time to lean heavily into MicroStrategy shorts. This one is a donut.


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  35. #7285
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    It is left as an exercise for the keen Argonaut, or other form of Saylor to draw their own lines/conclusions.





    Note: Still to be sanity checked and no closing price for today yet.

  36. #7286
    So everyone made a killing on Rolls Royce then

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  37. #7287
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    5k up on IAG - Yay

    5k down on ARB - Booo

    TIGR - Don't even want to look.

  38. #7288
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    5k up on IAG - Yay

    5k down on ARB - Booo

    TIGR - Don't even want to look.
    I hope you're properly diversified fella.

  39. #7289
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Tesla @800$ - Wouldn't have thought that'd happen anytime soon!

    I wonder if Cathy Wood is kicking herself having sold masses of it.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by benwisback View Post
    I hope you're properly diversified fella.
    Of course! I hold MSTR too.

  40. #7290
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Tesla @800$ - Wouldn't have thought that'd happen anytime soon!
    Cut my shorts at $760 on Friday, almost sold into early weakness today.... Unbelievable rally, especially considering all the poor news of recently. Big stuff happening in the background, another Bill Hwang working hard.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  41. #7291
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    Of course! I hold MSTR too.
    Alrighty then

  42. #7292
    Question: if you want Bitcoin, why would you buy Microstrategy rather than Bitcoin? Buying Microstrategy exposes you to their management risk, and includes a struggling BI company. What's the point?

  43. #7293
    Grand Master ryanb741's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barneygumble View Post
    Question: if you want Bitcoin, why would you buy Microstrategy rather than Bitcoin? Buying Microstrategy exposes you to their management risk, and includes a struggling BI company. What's the point?
    Because you can buy MSTR in a SIPP and get up to 45% boost in tax

  44. #7294
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Because you can buy MSTR in a SIPP and get up to 45% boost in tax
    Ah. Good point. But isn't Bitcoin cOmplETEly aNOnYMous?

  45. #7295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    So everyone made a killing on Rolls Royce then
    Yep, was great yesterday after all the ups and downs we've been through with RR, some great news on the B52's and selling ITP Aero to help the balance sheet that was stripped bare during Covid.

    I'm well up but hanging in for the long term as lots more projects in the pipe line like the mini nukes that will hopefully get UK backing.

  46. #7296
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by barneygumble View Post
    Question: if you want Bitcoin, why would you buy Microstrategy rather than Bitcoin? Buying Microstrategy exposes you to their management risk, and includes a struggling BI company. What's the point?
    You get the added excitement of watching the company going bust when bitcoin hits $20k - that must be worth something.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  47. #7297
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Hold on to your hats ARGOnauts.

    https://www.londonstockexchange.com/...acity/15154748

    Let's see what the power of Nasdaq can do compared to OTC with this first snippet of good news since their IPO on Nas.



    Argo Blockchain PLC

    ("Argo" or "the Company")


    Expansion of mining capacity


    Argo Blockchain, a global leader in cryptocurrency mining (LSE: ARB; NASDAQ: ARBK), is pleased to announce that it has executed a purchase agreement for 20,000 Bitmain Antminer S19J Pro machines, to be paid in periodic installments before final shipment. The initial deposit is currently being funded by the Company's cash reserves. The machines are expected to increase Argo's hashrate by over 2 Exahash and are expected to be delivered and installed at the Company's future Texas facility in monthly batches from Q2 2022 through Q3 2022. Based on existing capacity and previous orders, Argo's mining capacity is expected to be 1.7 Exahash by mid-Q4 2021. This expansion will bring the Company's total mining capacity to 3.7 Exahash by the end of Q3 2022. The Company is pleased to continue and strengthen its longstanding relationship with Bitmain.

  48. #7298
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    ^ What is unexpected about that announcement, wasn't that the exact reason for raising cash in the first place?

    If anything, I'd be surprised about the fact that it takes another year before this has any effect on production.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  49. #7299
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    One point of good news was that there is supposed to be a 40 day period of silence after the IPO and we weren't sure if they'd release any news at all until after that date (as one of the other miners did not).
    So in that respect it's good that they're communicating.


    Also, the previous order for miners was smaller and got cancelled so we've not known if or when any new machines are due. So that's new news.

    Plus, it's the first indication of a timeframe for the new Texas facility.


    And.....it suggests that our current order for new machines is going according to the plan, so there will be more hash power already and more coming in the next quarter.

    I guess the hope for later today when Nasdaq going live, is that we all know they like to price in these future plans. So it ought to get ARBK out of the starting block and then have a bit of a domino effect as more investors see/hear about them. They were not on the radar for many US investors while on the OTC market. (Can't buy ARBKF in their equivalent of SIPPs and ISAs)




    If you're only here to trade, Raffe, I'd say you'll easily make your 6% on ARBK today.

  50. #7300
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    If you're only here to trade, Raffe, I'd say you'll easily make your 6% on ARBK today.
    The first trade possible this morning in the US after the release of the news was for a whole 16 shares at $15.92, after that everything traded above $16.

    The market has just opened and the first trades were between $15.58 and $15.72. So far I'd be in the loss if I traded your advice.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

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