I'm not an economic expert but I do have lots of experience trading very profitably on sports betting exchanges and there isn't that much difference in the 2 segments so far that on betting exchanges as well as financial exchanges price of an asset is largely derived on sentiment plus market demand. It should be based on fundamentals (and long term it is hence Hedge Funds taking long positions based on research) however much of the daily movement is based on emotional 'hunch'. So assuming sentiment is a key factor in financial market asset prices then in a scenario where every Wall St analyst is trying to outdo themselves with negative predictions for the market then surely this HAS to be already priced in to asset prices. And also some of the negative forecasts are ludicrous - you get sensationalist headlines around 10% unemployment and millions of Americans claiming unemployment benefits without factoring in the fact that a massive reduction in GDP is government policy in order to lower the number of people who die from COVID. It is nothing else. So where I see predictions for 3 quarters of negative growth I know intrinsically this is bullsh*t. Today where the economy has been effectively shut down we have this huge drop in GDP. For us to have 3 consecutive quarters of negative growth we would need the economic situation to get even worse than it is now. What are we going to do - shut down supermarkets as well? So whatever happens over the next few months will surely be better than today - even if all it is is opening a few more shops.

If you asked me to predict I reckon we will see a Nike Swoosh-shaped recovery however the main issue will be countries defaulting on the debts they just took on plus further bail outs of big companies. And I am getting the uneasy feeling we are inching towards a possible military escalation between the US and China. Already the anti-China rhetoric is being whipped up in the US, blaming them for Covid and stating the WHO is in China's pocket. The fact COVID isn't China's fault won't matter - 9/11 wasn't Iraq's fault and yet it was attacked by the USA. So in a weird way I believe COVID may be a catalyst for something more damaging