When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

[BillN]

which is the age old problem with the system we have. In a crisis those that have, make money. When there isnt a crisis, those that have, make money...

And ultimately, it is the average or lower paid worker who cops the bill via taxes which they can't reduce by utilising schemes or methods that Are available for those that "have"

Call me a socialist if you like but remember that as we live in societies we should all be socialists...

William Hill shares were up yesterday - not sure about today!

[Devonian]

Halifax has 95,000 people ask for the 3 month payment holiday in the first week. That is an incredible amount for just one lender. Multiple that across the lenders and it’s a serious amount.

Many of those people don’t even need it (obviously many do as well), they think it’s a freebie. How do I know? We’ve had loads of calls and emails about it and a lot of people interpreted it as a free holiday.

I think historically our memories are short when we return to normal and we forget about stock market blips, house price falls and recessions. This time I’m sure it will be different. People will value things differently going forward, hopefully in a positive way.

[BillN]

Halifax has 95,000 people ask for the 3 month payment holiday in the first week. That is an incredible amount for just one lender. Multiple that across the lenders and it’s a serious amount.

Many of those people don’t even need it (obviously many do as well), they think it’s a freebie. How do I know? We’ve had loads of calls and emails about it and a lot of people interpreted it as a free holiday.

I think historically our memories are short when we return to normal and we forget about stock market blips, house price falls and recessions. This time I’m sure it will be different. People will value things differently going forward, hopefully in a positive way.

Halifax have closed their phone lines down to pension enquiries - I tried earlier this week and today and finally got to a "person" who said call back next week

[Passenger]

Halifax has 95,000 people ask for the 3 month payment holiday in the first week. That is an incredible amount for just one lender. Multiple that across the lenders and it’s a serious amount.

Many of those people don’t even need it (obviously many do as well), they think it’s a freebie. How do I know? We’ve had loads of calls and emails about it and a lot of people interpreted it as a free holiday.

I think historically our memories are short when we return to normal and we forget about stock market blips, house price falls and recessions. This time I’m sure it will be different. People will value things differently going forward, hopefully in a positive way.

People really are a bit dim aren't they, there's no free lunches.

[BillN]

Trump announced yesterday a further 30 day social distancing.

An extra month of factories shut down all requiring oil/ fuels, reduction in transportation fuels demand as nobody is driving/flying, no advance of Saudi/Russia oil price spat etc. etc.

All for the largest oil consuming nation in the world. So, I’m not surprised by oil company shares falling after Trump’s statement.

they must have heard you .......Royal Dutch now up 1% today

[Devonian]

People really are a bit dim aren't they, there's no free lunches.

One of my colleagues spoke to a Director of a big company about a commercial matter for the firm (he’s not a client of ours but his boss is) and he casually told him he’d called his building society and taken the 3 month holiday. He asked my colleague if he’d ‘done the right thing’. Turns out he’s on about 100k basic, his mortgage is about 150k, he’s not been furloughed or suffered any loss at all! Oh and he’s got a lot of savings.

So yes people are dim.

[noTAGlove]

they must have heard you .......Royal Dutch now up 1% today

I have worked in the O&G industry for 30 years, so I am used to ups and downs and seen them before.

For integrated oil companies what saves them during low oil prices is refining margins. In 2015 the oil price was similarly in the 20s, but integrated oil companies where making billions on refining margins helping to keep the dividend safe.

What scares me as an employee this time is not the fact that the oil price is low, but that refining margins are on the floor too. Who’s buying Jet A-1 if planes are grounded, and is anyone going to fill up for the all important driving season in the USA which kicks off is a month or so.

No money being made from upstream or downstream. This is an unprecedented situation in an unprecedented situation.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[BillN]

I have worked in the O&G industry for 30 years, so I am used to ups and downs and seen them before.

For integrated oil companies what saves them during low oil prices is refining margins. In 2015 the oil price was similarly in the 20s, but integrated oil companies where making billions on refining margins helping to keep the dividend safe.

What scares me as an employee this time is not the fact that the oil price is low, but that refining margins are on the floor too. Who’s buying Jet A-1 if planes are grounded, and is anyone going to fill up for the all important driving season in the USA which kicks off is a month or so.

No money being made from upstream or downstream. This is an unprecedented situation in an unprecedented situation.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I don't disagree with you - all I was indicating is that things are just crazy

today it's the Banks turn to get hit - tomorrow they could be up again

[BillN]

Barclays are down 12% today, well 11.95%

anyone want to brave a guess at what will happen to their share price tomorrow?




(I don't have any Barclays shares, just bloody Lloyds!!!)

[noTAGlove]

Barclays are down 12% today, well 11.95%

anyone want to brave a guess at what will happen to their share price tomorrow?




(I don't have any Barclays shares, just bloody Lloyds!!!)

I’m brave enough to guess that there will is a lot of volatility still to come.

Stocks in the US are only back to highly inflated 2017 levels and every state in the US has a stay a home order.

[Raffe]

My guess is that they will fall further tomorrow.

[murkeywaters]

(I don't have any Barclays shares, just bloody Lloyds!!!)

It felt earlier like Lloyds were trying so hard to stay above 30p, once the levy broke at 29.9 they dropped to 28p quite quick, who knows where it will end up!!

RR are trying hard to stay in the 3.00’s too, once it drops into the 2.99 they may well fall a lot further..

I’m staying out for now..

[mangoosian]

Sold a chunk of stocks today to weather this storm, including from my kids CTF/Junior ISAs. So now 35% invested and cash sitting on the sidelines. Luckily US investments were pretty protected in sterling terms by the weak pound. Now I'll wait and drip in as events unfold.

[BillN]

we have our 18 month old grandson staying with us, plus daughter and husband - we are all locked down together - not the greatest of adventures

I'll ask my grandson........ he said "up"

[Passenger]

One of my colleagues spoke to a Director of a big company about a commercial matter for the firm (he’s not a client of ours but his boss is) and he casually told him he’d called his building society and taken the 3 month holiday. He asked my colleague if he’d ‘done the right thing’. Turns out he’s on about 100k basic, his mortgage is about 150k, he’s not been furloughed or suffered any loss at all! Oh and he’s got a lot of savings.

So yes people are dim.

Blimey that chap shared rather a lot about his finances didn’t he.

[Devonian]

Blimey that chap shared rather a lot about his finances didn’t he.

Not really as we run the GPP for the employer so we would have access to all their earnings anyway. He just wanted a bit of advice, well more like he wanted a ‘yes you’ve done the right thing fella’ response I guess. I was more illustrating people’s thinking to the mortgage holiday options.

[pacifichrono]

Other than my small experiment in airline stocks, I'm only in cash. Following last night's White House coronavirus briefing, I think I'll stay that way for a while. As of yesterday, total U.S. deaths were at about 3,500, and the medical experts presented a chart showing a "best case" scenario if citizens follow all the self-isolation and other directives, where U.S. CV deaths will reach 100,000 to 240,000...best case. At 72 with mild emphysema, I'm f**ked!

[Holsterman]

Other than my small experiment in airline stocks, I'm only in cash. Following last night's White House coronavirus briefing, I think I'll stay that way for a while. As of yesterday, total U.S. deaths were at about 3,500, and the medical experts presented a chart showing a "best case" scenario if citizens follow all the self-isolation and other directives, where U.S. CV deaths will reach 100,000 to 240,000...best case. At 72 with mild emphysema, I'm f**ked!

The place to put your cash, post-crash, is in steel sports Rolex & PP.

Stay safe and good luck.

[Devonian]

Keep yourself isolated and safe until these awful things goes. It’s hard but you need to keep healthy is more important. Wishing you all the best.

QUOTE=pacifichrono;5369910]Other than my small experiment in airline stocks, I'm only in cash. Following last night's White House coronavirus briefing, I think I'll stay that way for a while. As of yesterday, total U.S. deaths were at about 3,500, and the medical experts presented a chart showing a "best case" scenario if citizens follow all the self-isolation and other directives, where U.S. CV deaths will reach 100,000 to 240,000...best case. At 72 with mild emphysema, I'm f**ked!

[/QUOTE]

[crazyp]

Other than my small experiment in airline stocks, I'm only in cash. Following last night's White House coronavirus briefing, I think I'll stay that way for a while. As of yesterday, total U.S. deaths were at about 3,500, and the medical experts presented a chart showing a "best case" scenario if citizens follow all the self-isolation and other directives, where U.S. CV deaths will reach 100,000 to 240,000...best case. At 72 with mild emphysema, I'm f**ked!

Stay isolated and safe is all you do I guess. You have us here to annoy the hell out of you and to keep you entertained

[noTAGlove]

The place to put your cash, post-crash, is in steel sports Rolex & PP.

Stay safe and good luck.

Better wait a bit then, because dealers already on YouTube saying that 'hot' PP models are at down at least 20% in a month or so since CV hit. That in addition to their more gentle decline since summer 2109.

[BillN]

we have been in lock down since 14th March - only been in back garden

I went out today to post a letter - it felt erie

passed two people who kept well away from me, not a word

[Montello]

Other than my small experiment in airline stocks, I'm only in cash. Following last night's White House coronavirus briefing, I think I'll stay that way for a while. As of yesterday, total U.S. deaths were at about 3,500, and the medical experts presented a chart showing a "best case" scenario if citizens follow all the self-isolation and other directives, where U.S. CV deaths will reach 100,000 to 240,000...best case. At 72 with mild emphysema, I'm f**ked!

Dig in,isolate and stay safe. Nothing is for certain so you have to plan for the best.

As I have stated above a few times the USA haven’t been taking this seriously enough, Trump. Sadly it seems Americans will pay the price for Trumps decisions on this.

Hopefully this forum can provide some distraction for you whilst you sit tight.

I’m still bearish about the long term economic outlook. Many companies going down, significant unemployment, more national debt and increased taxes. All bad for economic growth.

[noTAGlove]

Other than my small experiment in airline stocks, I'm only in cash. Following last night's White House coronavirus briefing, I think I'll stay that way for a while. As of yesterday, total U.S. deaths were at about 3,500, and the medical experts presented a chart showing a "best case" scenario if citizens follow all the self-isolation and other directives, where U.S. CV deaths will reach 100,000 to 240,000...best case. At 72 with mild emphysema, I'm f**ked!

Just like the lunar new year holiday in China which spread it far and wide, your college students on spring break copied them.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...=1585768309476

[pacifichrono]

Thanks for the thoughts and well wishes, guys!

[crazyp]

US jobless figures out today. Look for a figure of around 6.5 million this week. Interesting to see if the market cares (I suspect not and it has been priced in).

[Montello]

US jobless figures out today. Look for a figure of around 6.5 million this week. Interesting to see if the market cares (I suspect not and it has been priced in).

The question is how much of the forthcoming bad news is priced in and how much will force the markets lower.

CV continues to gather pace is the USA with 26,500 new cases yesterday; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Trump on TV last night stating that the USA will be through the worst in a couple of weeks ... clueless ...

I can see things still getting worse before they recover. The lockdown in the USA has to last another 8 weeks ... so that will be most of Q2 gone as well ...

[BillN]

what's happening to the £? - it's steaming ahead against both the US$ and Euros

OK, you'll tell me that news is worst in the US and Europe than in the UK, and Brexit may be delayed ....... and quote lots of facts ..........but I still don't "get it"

[Montello]

what's happening to the £? - it's steaming ahead against both the US$ and Euros

Steaming? Hardly ... moving forwards but not much really ...

......but I still don't "get it"

The reality is no-one knows not even the "professionals"because if the "experts" knew we wouldn't be seeing such volatility ... uncharted waters ....

[BillN]

Steaming? Hardly ... moving forwards but not much really ...




The reality is no-one knows not even the "professionals"because if the "experts" knew we wouldn't be seeing such volatility ... uncharted waters ....

steaming - it's gone from 1.065 to 1.13 to the Euro in 10 days

[crazyp]

steaming - it's gone from 1.065 to 1.13 to the Euro in 10 days

Dithering Europe is the main issue with the Euro. As for the US, maybe dawning on folk that this could be quite a drawn out affair and a need to diversify. As ever, all just me assuming stuff, probably entirely wrong!

[BillN]

Dithering Europe is the main issue with the Euro. As for the US, maybe dawning on folk that this could be quite a drawn out affair and a need to diversify. As ever, all just me assuming stuff, probably entirely wrong!

yep - at least my 18 months grandchild was correct about the Barclays share price today - he said "up" and it's up this morning

I'll ask him

[Passenger]

The question is how much of the forthcoming bad news is priced in and how much will force the markets lower.

CV continues to gather pace is the USA with 26,500 new cases yesterday; https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Trump on TV last night stating that the USA will be through the worst in a couple of weeks ... clueless ...

I can see things still getting worse before they recover. The lockdown in the USA has to last another 8 weeks ... so that will be most of Q2 gone as well ...

Any 'recovery', in the mildest sense imho, perhaps 2021, perhaps.

[Montello]

yep - at least my 18 months grandchild was correct about the Barclays share price today - he said "up" and it's up this morning

I'll ask him

For short term movements of banking stocks I'd say he's as good as any ...

[ryanb741]

For short term movements of banking stocks I'd say he's as good as any ...

I asked my dog this am about when the economic recovery would start. One bark for Q3 and 2 barks for Q4. She made no sound but just took a crap on the floor. I'm taking this as a very bad sign......

[noTAGlove]

Wrong - deleted

[Templogin]

Dogs and infants can do this!? That’s blown the mystique!!

[Montello]

US markets opening soon, how will this news go down?

[crazyp]

US jobless figures out today. Look for a figure of around 6.5 million this week. Interesting to see if the market cares (I suspect not and it has been priced in).

6.6 million filed for unemployment stateside. The question still is how high will it go. There is still some thought that almost half of the UK workforce may be supported by the Government in 3 months or so as businesses continue to run out of cash. If that is extrapolated to the US.....shudder.

[noTAGlove]

US markets opening soon, how will this news go down?

The Dow is up at the time of writing

[Montello]

The Dow is up at the time of writing

I guess they were expecting more or that Wall Street just considers these people the great unwashed of the USA and expects big business to shrug it off ...

All these people will need support and in the coming weeks and months there will be more ...

[JuanKing]

Probably due to Trumps tweet on oil production.

[Raffe]

The Dow is up at the time of writing

I guess they were expecting more or that Wall Street just considers these people the great unwashed of the USA and expects big business to shrug it off ...

All these people will need support and in the coming weeks and months there will be more ...

It is as simple that the number was exactly as expected and as such has been discounted in the stock market already. Why would the market move because of the release of a number well within expectations?

[Montello]

It is as simple that the number was exactly as expected and as such has been discounted in the stock market already. Why would the market move because of the release of a number well within expectations?

I read that their expectations were sub 6m. The above graph is sobering when you compare this to previous recession periods.

[pacifichrono]

Tomorrow the U.S. will report last week's Unemployment Rate. At the depths of the Great Depression, the rate topped out at 25%.

[ernestrome]

Worse numbers than the market expected this morning it seems.

I am thinking that the QE type stimulus measures announced are not a good thing for gilts at present? However the gilt tracker I previously owned (L&G All Stocks Gilt Index trust) took a hit from the 16th to 19th then rebounded.

[Raffe]

....and suddenly my EUR/USD put options are in the money again. Absolutely crazy volatility.

[Montello]

Given the rate of c-19 spread in the USA I’d not hold out too long.

[jonny]

what's happening to the £? - it's steaming ahead against both the US$ and Euros

OK, you'll tell me that news is worst in the US and Europe than in the UK, and Brexit may be delayed ....... and quote lots of facts ..........but I still don't "get it"

During a recession the GBP normally falls as it’s gets sold for dollars and other safe currencies(look at GBP in 2007-8/against $ went from 2-1.4). However this time the GBP was already very weak against most currencies so it was oversold and ‘was effectively cheap against a basket of other currencies’ hence it recovered some ground.

[BillN]

During a recession the GBP normally falls as it’s gets sold for dollars and other safe currencies(look at GBP in 2007-8/against $ went from 2-1.4). However this time the GBP was already very weak against most currencies so it was oversold and ‘was effectively cheap against a basket of other currencies’ hence it recovered some ground.

Oh, I see, it's that simple is it!!