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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #251
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    My action was mostly driven by a perceived disconnect between asset prices and reality. If the main driver of asset prices is liquidity, the construct becomes very risky. I witnessed numerous occasions, where the stock market reacted to rather poor economic news with a rallye, simply because the Fed was less likely to raise interest rates. Absolute bonkers.

    Since this is a watch forum: I expect watch prices to tank sharply. I know everybody will disagree, so let's just wait and see.
    You didnít address the bonus question re. Cash and inflation.

  2. #252
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    You didnít address the bonus question re. Cash and inflation.
    Really not worried about inflation any time soon. Cash is beautiful at the moment.

  3. #253
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    No equities? Recent unload?

    Some alarming comparisons.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...-a9412221.html

    Wow! What a buying opportunity!

  4. #254
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    Very good timing.
    For once I got it right. Not claiming to have a crystal ball, been wrong before. Many times, actually.

  5. #255
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    If you are wondering whether you should buy or sell the stock market, look here.

  6. #256
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    If you are wondering whether you should buy or sell the stock market, look here.
    It's also why I don't buy all the strength and faith being put in the Dollar. I've held my nerve and not bought anything and comfortable enough with my current share position, despite the falls. Though let's be honest, pretty much everything is screwed.

    I wrote a little opinion piece on my blog (click here) - I genuinely believe we're on the cusp of some sort of societal upheaval. Forget a recession, we could be heading into a depression.

  7. #257
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    It's also why I don't buy all the strength and faith being put in the Dollar. I've held my nerve and not bought anything and comfortable enough with my current share position, despite the falls. Though let's be honest, pretty much everything is screwed.

    I wrote a little opinion piece on my blog (click here) - I genuinely believe we're on the cusp of some sort of societal upheaval. Forget a recession, we could be heading into a depression.
    Interesting point about the strength of the Dollar. Actually, all projections are pointing to a bigger GDP contraction in Europe than in the US and make no mistake: if European government are hellbound on making sure no company will default because of the virus, the costs will be immense and then we haven't even spoken about the cost of bailing out Italy. Not that I think Europe stands the smallest chance of keeping the avalanche from going down, just that they are extremely committed to bury a lot of tax money under the rubble.

    But whatever will happen, your fully stickered Daytona will be worth twice as much as you paid for it. Sure.

  8. #258
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Interesting point about the strength of the Dollar. Actually, all projections are pointing to a bigger GDP contraction in Europe than in the US and make no mistake: if European government are hellbound on making sure no company will default because of the virus, the costs will be immense and then we haven't even spoken about the cost of bailing out Italy. Not that I think Europe stands the smallest chance of keeping the avalanche from going down, just that they are extremely committed to bury a lot of tax money under the rubble.

    But whatever will happen, your fully stickered Daytona will be worth twice as much as you paid for it. Sure.
    Hehe, I actually do have a Daytona! Alas only an older 116520 bought at a bargain price when people didnít want them. I actually like my watch . Iíve very much been in the bubble will burst camp, besides Iíve also not been in a position to speculate. So no ridiculous exposure in watches for me either. Iíve always maintained a balance portfolio between cash, property, stocks & shares thankfully.

    I fully understand your point however and Iím in total agreement about Italy. The US is also unlikely to contract as much as Europe.

    But when we start seeing anarchy on the streets of America as unemployment touches 15-20%, Houston we most certainly have a problem and why I feel the Dollar is overvalued.

    It also comes back to my point earlier - society (and all industries) Is going to collapse all at once. Itís going to be interesting to see what governments choose to save and the guarantees they ask for in return...


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  9. #259
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    It appears we agree that inflation is not really a worry at the moment?

  10. #260
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    It appears we agree that inflation is not really a worry at the moment?
    Indeed. Cash is very much King.


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  11. #261
    Cash in the bank? Or in hand?

  12. #262
    Cash is king today. But not sure it will be tomorrow

    Negative interest rates have previously been seen in some countries so donít discount the possibility that the banks will start charging you for keeping your cash

    With every asset in the world devaluing eventually the only way out of the economic tsunami will be high inflation.

    People who are far cleverer than me will work out a strategy for making money out of this ..... if you do have a pile of cash perhaps the ballsy will keep 2 years worth of their outgoings in cash and start buying cheap property with the rest. When I say cheap .... reckon in about 6 months when banks start getting tetchy about not having borrowers make any repayments there will be property available at 50/60% of what it currently is worth. Assuming the economy starts moving again your cheap portfolio of houses will start producing a small income and eventually the inflation will give you capital appreciation


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  13. #263
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    You would need to be very brave to decide to sell out of equities now the horse has bolted.

    It’s been proven time and time again that trying to time the market is rarely the best strategy. Yes, the markets may and probably will descend further before they start a slow recovery, but if you miss any of those recovery/bounce days while being out of the market, you risk making far smaller gains over the longer term than you would have done if you’d held your nerve and ridden it out.

    Again, this is in no way advice and is certainly only a consideration for those with a good number of years left before retirement. It’s going to need time to recover.

    I’m no expert and have hovered the mouse over the “cash it all in” button a few times in the last week, but have decided that with 15+ years until retirement, the risk of making a bad market timing mistake is greater than the risk of doing nothing. So I’m doing nothing.

    I do always/usually have 10% sat in cash, so the only thing I will do is try to buy the bottom in the coming days/weeks. I suspect it’ll be weeks or even months until the bottom is hit.
    I’ll do the same with next years ISA allowance.

    https://www.investopedia.com/article...-investing.asp
    Last edited by mr noble; 20th March 2020 at 07:57.

  14. #264
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Interesting point about the strength of the Dollar. Actually, all projections are pointing to a bigger GDP contraction in Europe than in the US and make no mistake: if European government are hellbound on making sure no company will default because of the virus, the costs will be immense and then we haven't even spoken about the cost of bailing out Italy. Not that I think Europe stands the smallest chance of keeping the avalanche from going down, just that they are extremely committed to bury a lot of tax money under the rubble.

    But whatever will happen, your fully stickered Daytona will be worth twice as much as you paid for it. Sure.
    On available data you make solid points, the EU will perforce have to 'change'. On current projections the German economy is predicted to shrink by almost a third the next quarter alone, what on earth happens to Italy, the third largest economy in Europe, tourism gone for the foreseeable and banking infrastructure like wet spaghetti...and then the others on the list, Spain included.
    Last edited by Passenger; 20th March 2020 at 07:59.

  15. #265
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    Quote Originally Posted by dandanthewatchman View Post
    Cash is king today. But not sure it will be tomorrow

    Negative interest rates have previously been seen in some countries so don’t discount the possibility that the banks will start charging you for keeping your cash

    With every asset in the world devaluing eventually the only way out of the economic tsunami will be high inflation.

    People who are far cleverer than me will work out a strategy for making money out of this ..... if you do have a pile of cash perhaps the ballsy will keep 2 years worth of their outgoings in cash and start buying cheap property with the rest. When I say cheap .... reckon in about 6 months when banks start getting tetchy about not having borrowers make any repayments there will be property available at 50/60% of what it currently is worth. Assuming the economy starts moving again your cheap portfolio of houses will start producing a small income and eventually the inflation will give you capital appreciation


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    Who cares about paying a small negative interest on the cash? In the end it's a relative decision, pick the best out of a bunch of investment alternatives. You can obviously withdraw cash (if you can, not that easy today) and keep it under the matress - but what's the risk with that? I rather have it in the bank and ready to work if and when deployed into markets.



    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    You would need to be very brave to decide to sell out of equities now the horse has bolted.

    It’s been proven time and time again that trying to time the market is rarely the best strategy. Yes, the markets may and probably will descend further before they start a slow recovery, but if you miss any of those recovery/bounce days while being out of the market, you risk making far smaller gains over the longer term than you would have done if you’d held your nerve and ridden it out.

    Again, this is in no way advice and is certainly only a consideration for those with a good number of years left before retirement. It’s going to need time to recover.

    I’m no expert and have hovered the mouse over the “cash it all in” button a few times in the last week, but have decided that with 15+ years until retirement, the risk of making a bad market timing mistake is greater than the risk of doing nothing. So I’m doing nothing.

    I do always/usually have 10% sat in cash, so the only thing I will do is try to buy the bottom in the coming days/weeks. I suspect it’ll be weeks or even months until the bottom is hit.
    I’ll do the same with next years ISA allowance.

    https://www.investopedia.com/article...-investing.asp

    The future will tell. As long as you are comfortable with your decision.

  16. #266
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    Scary talk in this thread last night and this morning, that's put me right off my weetabix.

  17. #267
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    Suspect a lot of people will use this crisis to write off unsecured loans etc as I can't see any way that creditors are going to be able to chase which makes me think banks will need supporting by the government. Next step - runs on banks

  18. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Suspect a lot of people will use this crisis to write off unsecured loans etc as I can't see any way that creditors are going to be able to chase which makes me think banks will need supporting by the government. Next step - runs on banks
    Probably not I think re Bank runs, as liquidity isn't the issue and 'they' are too big to fail, though could be wrong. That said I'm not holding too many euros within the system here at any given time however, after watching Cyprus/Greece, just to be on the safe side.
    Last edited by Passenger; 20th March 2020 at 10:12.

  19. #269
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Really not worried about inflation any time soon. Cash is beautiful at the moment.
    Raffe, You come across very experienced in the economic/investment world so adding your thoughts and experience in threads like this is helpful.

    I have some material assets that will no doubt take a hit like a classic car and vintage watches but I really like them for what they are and not bothered about a price correction, to enjoy a watch/car and for it to make money is double bubble.

    I'm just so so relieved that any business interests I had and property is now sold and cash is in the bank, all this happened within the last few months with no planning for a future crash, just the way it fell! I even offered a large sum on a house last month that needed refurbishment but got out bid, looking back I was a bit gutted but now I would turn that house down at the price I offered..

  20. #270
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Raffe, You come across very experienced in the economic/investment world so adding your thoughts and experience in threads like this is helpful.
    Agreed; I'm not sure where else I would go to have conversations like these; certainly I wouldn't be having these types of candid discussions with friend and relatives.

    Some upwards pressure today in the markets off the back of the stimulus offered but I think this will prove to be short lived.

    I am a subscriber to Money Week magazine and one of the things the writers have often bemoaned in their pages is the continuance of zombie companies with poor business models being kept alive with "cheap money" ... will the companies just be able to pile on more cheap debt to stay alive or can we expect to see lots of casualties?

  21. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Raffe, You come across very experienced in the economic/investment world so adding your thoughts and experience in threads like this is helpful.

    I have some material assets that will no doubt take a hit like a classic car and vintage watches but I really like them for what they are and not bothered about a price correction, to enjoy a watch/car and for it to make money is double bubble.

    I'm just so so relieved that any business interests I had and property is now sold and cash is in the bank, all this happened within the last few months with no planning for a future crash, just the way it fell! I even offered a large sum on a house last month that needed refurbishment but got out bid, looking back I was a bit gutted but now I would turn that house down at the price I offered..
    Yes, doesn't make sense to look at everything only through the materialistic eye, I have kept a dozen or so watches which are dear to my heart (and a modern classic car as well). Enjoy your freedom!

  22. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Raffe, You come across very experienced in the economic/investment world so adding your thoughts and experience in threads like this is helpful.

    I have some material assets that will no doubt take a hit like a classic car and vintage watches but I really like them for what they are and not bothered about a price correction, to enjoy a watch/car and for it to make money is double bubble.

    I'm just so so relieved that any business interests I had and property is now sold and cash is in the bank, all this happened within the last few months with no planning for a future crash, just the way it fell! I even offered a large sum on a house last month that needed refurbishment but got out bid, looking back I was a bit gutted but now I would turn that house down at the price I offered..
    IMHO
    Basically in this world the best (financially) you can achieve is to spread your risk.

    Things like classic cars are bought to enjoy and the dividend is in their enjoyment ....... I feel that the same should be said of your home, (I keep telling this to my son in law who think that they are assets to make money from)

  23. #273
    For those questioning a lot of what Raffe has been saying about cash, note that your money needs to remain somewhere - so either in cash, stocks and shares, property or other assets (e.g. arts, watches, whatever floats your boat).

    Cash is simply the best in relatively crappy situation. Like Raffe, I'm in the boat that inflation is irrelevant (heck it's been relatively stagnant for a while). Even if you're 'losing' 1-3% due to 'inflation' (which I do not believe), you're still better off having cash than losing 30% in the stock market. Especially now if you have no confidence in the global economy and believe things could get worse.

    It also means you are likely to have a lot less stress!

  24. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Raffe, You come across very experienced in the economic/investment world so adding your thoughts and experience in threads like this is helpful.
    Indeed, and given your history Raffe, Iíd be interested to hear your view on what counts as a safe haven, and whatís going on with assets like gold, platinum, palladium, rhodium etc. For instance platinum is tanking and well below gold, and for good reasons (not much demand in the short term). But whatís the long view? Clearly people are more comfortable with cash than falling shares and assets, but I donít feel that confident with cash either given how much of the stuff is being printed. Though Ray Dalio sees the risk as deflation rather than inflation. I also wonder how safe the banks are, given that propping them up has been declared not to be the first priority this time (rightly, but then what happens when everyone defaults on loans?) Any thoughts on all of this youíd be happy to share?

    By the way I for one donít pretend to understand any of this stuff, itís a long way from my field. These may not even be the right questions. Iíd barely got my head around ISAs before all this kicked off, but you donít need a crystal ball to see mayhem ahead.

  25. #275
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yes, doesn't make sense to look at everything only through the materialistic eye, I have kept a dozen or so watches which are dear to my heart (and a modern classic car as well). Enjoy your freedom!
    Modern classic like mine, interesting! so what is it?? I have a 1987 E30 M3

  26. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    For those questioning a lot of what Raffe has been saying about cash, note that your money needs to remain somewhere - so either in cash, stocks and shares, property or other assets (e.g. arts, watches, whatever floats your boat).

    Cash is simply the best in relatively crappy situation. Like Raffe, I'm in the boat that inflation is irrelevant (heck it's been relatively stagnant for a while). Even if you're 'losing' 1-3% due to 'inflation' (which I do not believe), you're still better off having cash than losing 30% in the stock market. Especially now if you have no confidence in the global economy and believe things could get worse.

    It also means you are likely to have a lot less stress!
    don't follow the herd

    I'm now 73, I worked hard and was lucky that I could chose to retire when I was 50, with two kids still to put through school and Uni...........I have had to manage my assets, money, stocks and property etc, over those years and I have never trusted what the "experts" have advised - listen to them, maybe, but less and less as I have got older, make your own decisions and take responsibility for those.

    £ up again against the Euro this morning 1.75%
    Last edited by BillN; 20th March 2020 at 11:29.

  27. #277
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    don't follow the herd

    I'm now 73, I worked hard and was lucky that I could chose to retire when I was 50, with two kids still to put through school and Uni...........I have had to manage my assets, money, stocks and property etc, over those years and I have never trusted what the "experts" have advised - listen to them, maybe, but less and less as I have got older, make your own decisions and take responsibility for those.
    Genuine question - what exactly is the current herd mentality? I have no idea - people seem to be spraying everywhere.

    I do agree with you about take responsibility for your own actions. 100%. I have kept all my current shares - they were bought for the long term and I'm not going to be selling them. I'm just not comfortable to do much else at the moment!

  28. #278
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    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    Genuine question - what exactly is the current herd mentality? I have no idea - people seem to be spraying everywhere.

    I do agree with you about take responsibility for your own actions. 100%. I have kept all my current shares - they were bought for the long term and I'm not going to be selling them. I'm just not comfortable to do much else at the moment!
    as I said spread your risk - 50% of my largest pension fund has been in cash for the last 4 years - I was told that was inadvisable by IFA friends - I did not do it, because I'm "smart" I did not do it because I thought that there would be a catastrophe as we are seeing now............I just felt that it was "right" for me at the time ....... as I indicated I am 73
    (maybe psychologically it was because I lost a packet when Equitable went down!!)

    "herd mentality" - it was and has been - pile into shares - buy BTL's, etc., etc. - "the system" plays a game with us all, .........

    "herd mentality" now - judging by what has happened, it's "sell" sell sell

    the pendulum always swings too far
    Last edited by BillN; 20th March 2020 at 11:54.

  29. #279
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    I have been an enthusiastic amateur investor of 30 years ... I read a fair bit on the subject but I am not an investment professional.

    I have engaged professional advice on a number of occasions and have never really met an IFA that I felt had a better view then me; that is not arrogance just that the reality is that no one knows the future and trust my own view.

    I have taken advice on tax efficiency but never on asset selection.

    I generally buy and hold for a long time; I am not into market timing; I have only done it 3 times.

    1) In 1999 I sold all my tech shares (good call)
    2) When Trump was elected I sold most of my mainstream USA holdings (not so good)
    3) C-19 panic I sold out EVERYTHING on Tuesday this week

    I am also in the process of selling a BTL that went on the market in January and I don't know how that will end.

    My decision to sell was I see this as a bit of a reset that was coming anyway without the C-19 stuff ... I probably should have jumped sooner but hey its life.

    I'm expecting further pain before recovery so I'm happy to be on cash. JUst making sure it is spread around now to make sure I don't go over the FSCS limits should any banks fold ... although I don't thinks banks are the organisations in trouble this time (well maybe some investment banks) ...

    Everyone needs to make their own calls; I'm comfortable with mine and I'm sleeping fine now ... I wasn't last week ...

  30. #280
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    as I said spread your risk - 50% of my largest pension fund has been in cash for the last 4 years - I was told that was inadvisable by IFA friends - I did not do it, because I'm "smart" I did not do it because I thought that there would be a catastrophe as we are seeing now............I just felt that it was "right" for me at the time ....... as I indicated I am 73
    (maybe psychologically it was because I lost a packet when Equitable went down!!)

    "herd mentality" - it was and has been - pile into shares - buy BTL's, etc., etc. - "the system" plays a game with us all, .........

    "herd mentality" now - judging by what has happened, it's "sell" sell sell

    the pendulum always swings too far
    I understand the sentiment - but... if you followed the herd, youíd be buying and forcing prices up, or selling and forcing prices down - so, in effect doing the complete opposite would likely be financially disastrous. Being able to hold some security by way of cash has got to be a good idea at any time.
    It's just a matter of time...

  31. #281
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    I understand the sentiment - but... if you followed the herd, you’d be buying and forcing prices up, or selling and forcing prices down - so, in effect doing the complete opposite would likely be financially disastrous. Being able to hold some security by way of cash has got to be a good idea at any time.
    I put money into Shares last week and I am down 30% on paper, on what i bought

    I'm now 34% cash, 18% shares and 48% property.......excluding my pension funds which are about 50/50 cash and shares
    Last edited by BillN; 20th March 2020 at 12:46.

  32. #282
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    I understand the sentiment - but... if you followed the herd, you’d be buying and forcing prices up, or selling and forcing prices down - so, in effect doing the complete opposite would likely be financially disastrous. Being able to hold some security by way of cash has got to be a good idea at any time.
    The herd is confused ... today it's buying, yesterday it was selling ... who knows what will happen next week.

    Those in cash are not in the herd ... they are looking for the next meal.

    I'm now 34% cash, 11% shares and 55% property, (1/3rd of which is now for sale) (this includes my own house in the mix)
    Last edited by Montello; 20th March 2020 at 12:32. Reason: Add asset mix.

  33. #283
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    I put money into Shares last week and I am down 30% on paper, on what i bought
    What I mean is that obviously people (the herd) were still selling those shares when you were buying. No one knows the tops and bottoms of a market, and we are all trying to time things for different reasons. Those in retirement likely want some access to regular cash from their pensions/assets. Those still trying to build up a pension will be looking at accumulating as much value as possible.

    I took a small punt on some more bitcoin a few days ago, and lost an immediate 20%, but it has more than recovered in the last three days, and luckily Iím now up overall on my crypto holdings again - but I wouldnít recommend it as an overall strategy. Iím just playing with a small amount to stay in touch with an alternative market.

    Whereas my brother is being a lot more aggressive and has been buying and or selling on a daily basis - I prefer to buy and hold mid to long term, unless I appear heavily weighted in an area of concern (which far too many are at the minute).

    I hope everyone comes out the other side without too much stress or loss.
    It's just a matter of time...

  34. #284
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The herd is confused ... today it's buying, yesterday it was selling ... who knows what will happen next week.

    Those in cash are not in the herd ... they are looking for the next meal.

    I'm now 34% cash, 11% shares and 55% property, (1/3rd of which is now for sale) (this include my own house in the mix)
    In my view you need to exclude your own house

  35. #285
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    Iím now very relieved I stuck to my guns when reviewing my finances a few months ago and held onto a decently sized cash ISA. I almost lobbed it all into stocks and shares.

    Regarding precious metals, I can comment here to an extent. Gold has been very erratic these last few weeks but I believe it will offer relative stability compared to stocks and shares, and certainly offer some protection for wealth. Platinum, palladium and rhodium are different beasts altogether. All industrial metals in a rapidly changing world, these strike me as punts more than anything currently. If the hydrogen economy finally begins to dawn then platinum will see a resurgence undoubtedly. Silver, as ever, is a confused middle ground between precious and industrial albeit with strong demand from both the PV and electronics sectors. Tends to mirror gold and probably again more of a punt than anything currently. Companies like Johnson matthey moving heavily into battery metals / hydrogen and slowly phasing out their reliance on precious tells a bit of a story too.

    Frankly, I know as much as the next bloke. Which isnít much. Good luck to all, itís going to be an interesting few months. Oh and I also expect sales corner to quickly turn into Rolex corner!

  36. #286
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    In my view you need to exclude your own house
    Yeah; never sure how to view my own house; I have no kids so ultimately I intend to spend the asset somehow ....

    I'm now 44% cash, 15% shares and 41% property, (2/3rd of which is now for sale) (this excludes my own house but does include my pension fund)

  37. #287
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    The herd is confused ... today it's buying, yesterday it was selling ... who knows what will happen next week.

    Those in cash are not in the herd ... they are looking for the next meal.

    I'm now 34% cash, 11% shares and 55% property, (1/3rd of which is now for sale) (this includes my own house in the mix)
    Im in the middle of a very expensive (for me) house purchase - but plan on it being my long term home, so relatively relaxed, and it will be worth whatever itís worth - maybe a future wife and the kids will cash it in one day after Iím gone.

    A couple of friends, and family, sold their main home at the end of last year and want to time their entry into the market - but there is far from any certainty at the moment.

    A balanced portfolio would be wise, but Iíll be very property rich, and relatively cash and other asset poor for a little while. Hopefully Iíll be in a position to keep making the payments as they fall due over the coming months and years...
    It's just a matter of time...

  38. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by Omegamanic View Post
    What I mean is that obviously people (the herd) were still selling those shares when you were buying. No one knows the tops and bottoms of a market, and we are all trying to time things for different reasons. Those in retirement likely want some access to regular cash from their pensions/assets. Those still trying to build up a pension will be looking at accumulating as much value as possible.

    I took a small punt on some more bitcoin a few days ago, and lost an immediate 20%, but it has more than recovered in the last three days, and luckily Iím now up overall on my crypto holdings again - but I wouldnít recommend it as an overall strategy. Iím just playing with a small amount to stay in touch with an alternative market.

    Whereas my brother is being a lot more aggressive and has been buying and or selling on a daily basis - I prefer to buy and hold mid to long term, unless I appear heavily weighted in an area of concern (which far too many are at the minute).

    I hope everyone comes out the other side without too much stress or loss.

    I think the economic repercussions will be very very serious vis-a-vis China - the US is not going to sit back and see it's Stock Market etc., decimated whist China powers forward - I am not saying what is right or wrong - but Trump will get re-elected and he will want some kind of "pay back" and he will be supported by an "angry" electorate. The rest of the western world may follow.

    Conspiracy theories abound and Trump will not condemn these.

  39. #289
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Yeah; never sure how to view my own house; I have no kids so ultimately I intend to spend the asset somehow ....

    I'm now 44% cash, 15% shares and 41% property, (2/3rd of which is now for sale) (this excludes my own house but does include my pension fund)
    We have a property up for sale which is included in my numbers ....... we are nearing "exchange"........but I'm expecting, (prepared for), problems
    Last edited by BillN; 20th March 2020 at 12:46.

  40. #290
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    I think the economic repercussions will be very very serious vis-a-vis China - the US is not going to sit back and see it's Stock Market etc., decimated whist China powers forward - I am not saying what is right or wrong - but Trump will get re-elected and he will want some kind of "pay back" and he will be supported by an "angry" electorate. The rest of the western world may follow.

    Conspiracy theories abound and Trump will not condemn these.
    I'm inclined to agree with your prognosis, this is a landscape changer.

  41. #291
    Before the crisis I had 70% savings in cash and 30% in equities. Ive lost a good chunk on paper, but the split is lower than general guidance for my age (51) which says I should be 50/50, and this has helped me.

    I chided myself when I didnít pile in a big cash ISA into equities in Jan 2019 when FTSE was 6500. Boy, was that a lucky escape.

    Luckily Iím still in a DB pension and have amassed 25 years in a 60ths plan. I have to remember this is where my real future money is, and everything else is pocket money.

    So glad I was not tempted to sell out my DB to DC at what I though where incredible 35x multiples being offered. Multiples on DB to DC will have to jump to 50 or 60x given whatís going on.

    Must be a tough time for those who recently saw the £ signs in their eyes and cashed in their DB pension.

  42. #292
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    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Before the crisis I had 70% savings in cash and 30% in equities. Ive lost a good chunk on paper, but the split is lower than general guidance for my age (51) which says I should be 50/50, and this has helped me.

    I chided myself when I didnít pile in a big cash ISA into equities in Jan 2019 when FTSE was 6500. Boy, was that a lucky escape.

    Luckily Iím still in a DB pension and have amassed 25 years in a 60ths plan. I have to remember this is where my real future money is, and everything else is pocket money.

    So glad I was not tempted to sell out my DB to DC at what I though where incredible 35x multiples being offered. Multiples on DB to DC will have to jump to 50 or 60x given whatís going on.

    Must be a tough time for those who recently saw the £ signs in their eyes and cashed in their DB pension.
    although a pittance for some, some people will now realise how valuable their UK OAP is

  43. #293
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    although a pittance for some, some people will now realise how valuable their UK OAP is
    Absolutely. A guaranteed income of £8,700-odd at pension age must now be equivalent to a £300k pension pot.

  44. #294
    Journeyman Chiefs's Avatar
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    9 months from now; expect a baby boom. Mothercare shares anyone? ;-)

  45. #295
    Quote Originally Posted by Chiefs View Post
    9 months from now; expect a baby boom. Mothercare shares anyone? ;-)
    Or invest in a law firm specialising in divorce....

  46. #296
    Quote Originally Posted by crazyp View Post
    Or invest in a law firm specialising in divorce....
    Good thinking, but I donít think you are allowed to do this.

    Alternatively any business involved in the 3 Ds.

  47. #297
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    Modern classic like mine, interesting! so what is it?? I have a 1987 E30 M3
    Mine is a 987 Boxster S. Love it (and my 5-year old daughter has already claimed it for when she is allowed to drive)


    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    £ up again against the Euro this morning 1.75%
    Maybe should have followed my advice and sold your Euros yesterday?


    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    "herd mentality" - it was and has been - pile into shares - buy BTL's, etc., etc. - "the system" plays a game with us all, .........

    "herd mentality" now - judging by what has happened, it's "sell" sell sell

    the pendulum always swings too far
    We will know in the end. I don't see any heard mentality to sell right now, most people on this thread are talking about buying. Wait until the masses start selling...

  48. #298
    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Good thinking, but I donít think you are allowed to do this
    Why not?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by noTAGlove View Post
    Good thinking, but I donít think you are allowed to do this
    Why not?
    It's just a matter of time...

  49. #299

    When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

    I thought law firms where partner owned, rather than shareholders.

  50. #300
    Craftsman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    25 years ago, I spent six years of my life trading currencies for a living. Then I moved on to trading and investing in other asset classes, was the global head of asset allocation for an international banking group, head of equities, CEO of asset management, chairman of several investment committees and director of a couple of dozens of investment funds.

    Are you in any way qualified to talk about this stuff or are you just spouting random nonsense?
    how old are you raffe ?

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