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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #7651
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I take that one. Want to make sure I have to contribute something.
    Done

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  2. #7652
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    Quote Originally Posted by mr noble View Post
    That’s a brave one. Could have said $100k and still had Ralf take the bet.
    Perhaps, but it’s good to be ambitious

  3. #7653
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
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    Well done Raffe, £50 donated.

    May have lost the battle, but hopefully will win the AMC MOASS!

    Happy New Year to you all!

  4. #7654
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Want to increase the Argo bet to 500 quid?
    No.

    If Argo does not get to £3 I won’t be able to afford to pay £500. I’ll be eating gruel and drinking water for the rest of my days.

  5. #7655
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    May have lost the battle, but hopefully will win the AMC MOASS!
    Another one?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  6. #7656
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    Perhaps, but it’s good to be ambitious
    I’d love to see your prediction come to fruition as it will drag all the other crypto up with it getting to $150k in 6 months is quite staggering in prediction terms, what’s your thoughts on Ethereum?

    Let’s see what 2022 brings!!

  7. #7657
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Another one?
    Its worth a punt, especially when I bought in so low. Another £50?

  8. #7658
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    Its worth a punt, especially when I bought in so low. Another £50?
    Okay, that is the seventh and last bet for me.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  9. #7659
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    Quote Originally Posted by murkeywaters View Post
    I’d love to see your prediction come to fruition as it will drag all the other crypto up with it getting to $150k in 6 months is quite staggering in prediction terms, what’s your thoughts on Ethereum?

    Let’s see what 2022 brings!!
    My logic is, if it gets to 100k it won’t stop. We’re still waiting on the parabolic part in this cycle. If it comes it will come big, if it doesn’t we could see lows of 30k IMO

    Eth is getting absolutely strangled by the gas fees at the minute, I personally wouldn’t touch it for this reason alone

    People used to complain about bitcoin fees and how eth was so much cheaper — that’s completely flipped now.

    I think it’s more likely that another coin flips eth for the No 2 spot, than eth flips btc

  10. #7660
    Master murkeywaters's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by demonloop View Post
    My logic is, if it gets to 100k it won’t stop. We’re still waiting on the parabolic part in this cycle. If it comes it will come big, if it doesn’t we could see lows of 30k IMO

    Eth is getting absolutely strangled by the gas fees at the minute, I personally wouldn’t touch it for this reason alone

    People used to complain about bitcoin fees and how eth was so much cheaper — that’s completely flipped now.

    I think it’s more likely that another coin flips eth for the No 2 spot, than eth flips btc
    Yeah 100k is a key break point, I think ETH 2.0 is coming in the early part of 2022 and this will tackle the high gas fees - not here yet though is it..

  11. #7661
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Just got home, donation made for the lost S&P500 bet.

    Here's a quick summary of the seven bets I struck today, will counterparts please correct me if they have a different understanding (all bets in favour of forum fundraiser):

    1. Sean89: ETH marketcap > BTC marketcap anytime between today and 31/12/22. Raffe over, Sean under. £50

    2. Sean89: Floki Inu fully diluted market cap > $10bln on 31/12/2022. Sean over, Raffe under. £50

    3. Ryanb741: S&P500 > 5,000 on 30/06/2022, Ryan over, Raffe under. £50

    4. demonloop: BTC price > $150,000 anytime between today and 30/06/22. demonloop over, Raffe under. £50

    5. mr noble: Argo Blockchain price > 300p anytime between today and 30/06/22. mr noble over, Raffe under. £50

    6. Daveya: Raffe wins all of bets 1 to 5. Daveya over, Raffe under. £50

    7. Chinnock: AMC price > $50 on 30/06/2022, Chinnock over, Raffe under. £50
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  12. #7662
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    Well done Raffe, £50 donated.

    May have lost the battle, but hopefully will win the AMC MOASS!

    Happy New Year to you all!
    You may want to take note that insiders at AMC do not share your optimism:

    All company insiders combined own only half a percent of the company and there isn't a single insider who has been buying shares during 2021:



    If that wasn't clear enough, maybe this from the prospectus of their recent share offering is?



    I can only recommend the "Risk" section of their prospectus, a must-read for any investor.


    Talking about share offerings - any idea just how many shares AMC has sold to WSB retail investors? The number of shares issued has increased about fivefold during the last 18 months, and the company is still burning through cash faster than lightning. It won't be long before they will need to issue even more stock to generate the necessary cash to support its loss-making operations (almost $1 bln loss in 2021). In June, the Board of Directors already tried to sneak in the authorisation to issue another 500 million shares, another doubling of issued shares. That plan failed, but there will be a new attempt coming soon.



    You still waiting for the MOASS? I have a secret to tell: it will never come. Not saying that it is impossible that a crazy mob will push the shares up one more time, but whoever isn't smart enough to sell into this rally will lose all of their investment. Do like CEO Aaron Adam: sell any share that becomes available for trading, on the very day it becomes available.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  13. #7663
    Master Chinnock's Avatar
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    Bet you have some shares though Raffe, just in case.

    Go APES!

  14. #7664
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You may want to take note that insiders at AMC do not share your optimism:

    All company insiders combined own only half a percent of the company and there isn't a single insider who has been buying shares during 2021:



    If that wasn't clear enough, maybe this from the prospectus of their recent share offering is?



    I can only recommend the "Risk" section of their prospectus, a must-read for any investor.


    Talking about share offerings - any idea just how many shares AMC has sold to WSB retail investors? The number of shares issued has increased about fivefold during the last 18 months, and the company is still burning through cash faster than lightning. It won't be long before they will need to issue even more stock to generate the necessary cash to support its loss-making operations (almost $1 bln loss in 2021). In June, the Board of Directors already tried to sneak in the authorisation to issue another 500 million shares, another doubling of issued shares. That plan failed, but there will be a new attempt coming soon.



    You still waiting for the MOASS? I have a secret to tell: it will never come. Not saying that it is impossible that a crazy mob will push the shares up one more time, but whoever isn't smart enough to sell into this rally will lose all of their investment. Do like CEO Aaron Adam: sell any share that becomes available for trading, on the very day it becomes available.
    Just the classic.. insiders taking advantage of the mania and taking some profit... Making hay while the sun shines.

    Can't say I blame them!

  15. #7665
    'if possible we'd like to not go bust'



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  16. #7666
    Tesla up 9% 1149

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  17. #7667
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Tesla up 9% 1149

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    Yeah. They sold 10k more cars in Q4 in China then consensus estimate. That must be worth 100bln in marketcap, right?
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  18. #7668
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Yeah. They sold 10k more cars in Q4 in China then consensus estimate. That must be worth 100bln in marketcap, right?
    Well assuming they are all Model 3s then that's around £500m in extra gross revenues. Tesla has a GROSS margin of c 30% per car so that's around £150m in extra Gross Profit. Even with 'optimistic' multipliers that's someway off the 100bln market cap rise.

  19. #7669
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Well assuming they are all Model 3s then that's around £500m in extra gross revenues. Tesla has a GROSS margin of c 30% per car so that's around £150m in extra Gross Profit. Even with 'optimistic' multipliers that's someway off the 100bln market cap rise.
    Tesla has no margin of 30%.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  20. #7670
    IAG +11, who is going in on the airlines?

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  21. #7671

  22. #7672
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    IAG +11, who is going in on the airlines?

    Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk


    I bought a chunk of IAG a few months back when it dipped to 145. I should have sold at 195, but was expecting it to power up to 250+. Omicrom scuppered that....

    It's nice to be back in the green today!


    I will sell if it gets back to 195 (probably)

    Of course, then it'll shoot up to 300.

  23. #7673
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    FTSE100 tops 7500, business as normal.

  24. #7674
    Quote Originally Posted by ~dadam02~ View Post
    FTSE100 tops 7500, business as normal.
    Not far short of pre plague level

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  25. #7675
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Just bought some TIGR at $4.50.

    Just for the fun of it.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  26. #7676
    Master mr noble's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Just bought some TIGR at $4.50.

    Just for the fun of it.
    I bought a load of TIGR at $15 and more at $12. Rode it to $29 and then watched it dump all the way to $4.

    I think they refer to my type as bag holders.

    I cry myself to sleep each night.

  27. #7677
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chinnock View Post
    Bet you have some shares though Raffe, just in case.

    Go APES!



    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  28. #7678
    S+P and Dow doing someat

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  29. #7679
    Minutes of the fed meeting or something

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  30. #7680
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    Looks like I'll win my S&P bet. Again ;)

    Predictions for S&P value at 31/6/22. Fundraiser bet again
    What a closing yesterday. Imaging that would have been the one three business days earlier....


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #7681
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Only $496 to go.


    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  32. #7682
    Blimey

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  33. #7683
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  34. #7684
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Dumb, dumber, dumbest:

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  35. #7685
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    There was some chat about a few of the covid-hype diagnostic stocks last year (and a bet or two if I remember correctly Raffe!?)

    I’ve followed these quite closely because I have an interest in these technologies generally. Almost all have been hammered as the hype subsided and realism took hold. I feel sorry for those who got caught up on the wrong side of this; loads of manipulation and lies. And, of course, loads of new furious bagholders infesting every share chat board and twitter

    A few examples:

    #ODX - down 67% over the last year
    #NCYT - down 65% over the last year
    #AVCT - down 43% over the last year
    #ABDX - down 75% over the last year

    Morals of the story: have a few quid down as a bet and, if you get lucky with a 2x or 3x bagger on the way up get out quick. Don’t ever “average down” and definitely don’t believe what morons on the internet say. They are almost always wrong and their much vaunted “due diligence” is generally complete BS.

  36. #7686
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peck View Post
    There was some chat about a few of the covid-hype diagnostic stocks last year (and a bet or two if I remember correctly Raffe!?)

    I’ve followed these quite closely because I have an interest in these technologies generally. Almost all have been hammered as the hype subsided and realism took hold. I feel sorry for those who got caught up on the wrong side of this; loads of manipulation and lies. And, of course, loads of new furious bagholders infesting every share chat board and twitter

    A few examples:

    #ODX - down 67% over the last year
    #NCYT - down 65% over the last year
    #AVCT - down 43% over the last year
    #ABDX - down 75% over the last year

    Morals of the story: have a few quid down as a bet and, if you get lucky with a 2x or 3x bagger on the way up get out quick. Don’t ever “average down” and definitely don’t believe what morons on the internet say. They are almost always wrong and their much vaunted “due diligence” is generally complete BS.
    Oh yes, Avacta yielded a cool 100 quid for the fundraiser when they missed their August 2020 target-date for their self-test. They have been constantly touting a "next month" approach since, in March 2021 I teased about the test still not being available and was offered another 100 quid bet, which I didn't take as I thought even the worst-managed company would manage to deliver almost a year after their first target date. Guess what? It is still not out as of today, but they managed to churn out another dozen or so press releases since, which seems to be their core only competence.

    Or Novacyt, we had a couple of prophets and - as always - the talk was most bullish on the day of its all-time high. Down 75% since.

    Don't ever think that price validates an investment thesis. Especially in hype stocks, price is just an indicator that there are plenty of people chasing the same story. If the story doesn't hold, the awakening will be rough.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  37. #7687
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Oh yes, Avacta yielded a cool 100 quid for the fundraiser when they missed their August 2020 target-date for their self-test. They have been constantly touting a "next month" approach since, in March 2021 I teased about the test still not being available and was offered another 100 quid bet, which I didn't take as I thought even the worst-managed company would manage to deliver almost a year after their first target date. Guess what? It is still not out as of today, but they managed to churn out another dozen or so press releases since, which seems to be their core only competence.

    Or Novacyt, we had a couple of prophets and - as always - the talk was most bullish on the day of its all-time high. Down 75% since.

    Don't ever think that price validates an investment thesis. Especially in hype stocks, price is just an indicator that there are plenty of people chasing the same story. If the story doesn't hold, the awakening will be rough.
    Yep that was me. Had the chance to exit at £2.50 when I sold the lot.. but aped back in.. investing is never easy esp microcaps where you have even less information.

    Big lesson though is never go all in.. thankfully here my PF is cushioned by gainz elsewhere. NCYT, SNG I traded them well so lil bonus there.

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  38. #7688
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    Im a little surprised to not find wise words here today for how to deal with this weeks events.

    Would you buy funds at the moment ?

    Is Netflix really causing contagion?

    Is it a correction from economy changes arising from back to work ?

  39. #7689
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Only $496 to go.


    Only $365 to go now.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  40. #7690
    1billion and rising BTC liquidations in last 24 hours

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  41. #7691
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    1billion and rising BTC liquidations in last 24 hours

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    ...and MicroTragedy hasn't started yet. I suppose they will have to fire Saylor first, which will only be beaten when Musk is fired from Tesla and is going to prison.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  42. #7692
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    1. Sean89: ETH marketcap > BTC marketcap anytime between today and 31/12/22. Raffe over, Sean under. £50

    2. Sean89: Floki Inu fully diluted market cap > $10bln on 31/12/2022. Sean over, Raffe under. £50

    3. Ryanb741: S&P500 > 5,000 on 30/06/2022, Ryan over, Raffe under. £50

    4. demonloop: BTC price > $150,000 anytime between today and 30/06/22. demonloop over, Raffe under. £50

    5. mr noble: Argo Blockchain price > 300p anytime between today and 30/06/22. mr noble over, Raffe under. £50

    6. Daveya: Raffe wins all of bets 1 to 5. Daveya over, Raffe under. £50

    7. Chinnock: AMC price > $50 on 30/06/2022, Chinnock over, Raffe under. £50

    Charity bet update:

    Looking good so far, the only bet that I am likely to lose as of today is No. 1 (but it doesn't really matter, because if I win No. 1, I lose 6).

    Here is the market cap ratio between BTC and ETH. Obviously, a lot of time left and this is just an update:

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  43. #7693
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Buy the dip???

  44. #7694
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacifichrono View Post
    Buy the dip???
    I'd rather buy the dip in equities than in crypto.

    Not sure, might well bounce from here but I am very cautious medium term. think we might go a bit lower, possible even a negative trend for a while. Been a while since we've seen that.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  45. #7695
    Master pacifichrono's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    I'd rather buy the dip in equities than in crypto.

    Not sure, might well bounce from here but I am very cautious medium term. think we might go a bit lower, possible even a negative trend for a while. Been a while since we've seen that.
    I think you're on to something.

  46. #7696
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  47. #7697

  48. #7698
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Carnage
    Yup!

    We’ll over done on some stocks!


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  49. #7699
    Grand Master Raffe's Avatar
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    Fly-over over the Fremont Tesla factory, pictures from today.

    Which other car company is building their cars in tents, is dragging half-finished and half-painted cars by forklifts from one tent to another? What happens when it's raining (Any fule kno that it never rains in SoCal - but then Fremont isn't SoCal)? I am always puzzled by those mountains of garbage lying around the factory, by their huge press that is just sitting outside, by all the damaged cars standing around and by all the truck trailers used for parts storage. Simply unbelievable.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  50. #7700
    Did the fed say something?

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