When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

[BillN]

I just think that as far as CV and it's effect on western economies is concerned, that the market is still living on false hope, they still "want to" believe - I feel sure that there will be a second hit that may be worse than the first.

Some companies may do well but generally I don't see much good news on the horizon and it becomes clearer every day that Governments are not in control of events............ but how can they be ........I am sure that they are doing their best but the implications of this pandemic are huge and it could be with us for some years to come............the economic cost is now so great that you can only guess the numbers.

I have no idea what the solution will be as far as investing your savings is concerned .............it's anyones guess.........

as a person approaching my mid 70's, who has been 'locked down" for weeks, I find it extremely depressing, not particularly for me, I enjoy gardening, but for the UK's active working population who must be unsure about the future and their careers.

[ryanb741]

I'm no longer participating in the covid threads for my own sanity but in terms of emotions driving stock markets (if they are of course) there is some about to break news about the efficacy of the Oxford vaccine that may or may not impact the markets.

Paraphrasing very briefly the indicators are positive and further follow up tests on macaques (on top of the original tests done some weeks ago that spurred the initial confidence that this vaccine could work) against all the things scientists are worried about in terms of negative reactions to vaccines are encouraging. I'll let you do your own research online as it is in the public domain if you search hard enough but here is some initial reaction from some of the scientific community

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/e...esus-macaques/

I'm keeping my opinion to myself but this may be of interest to some of you as info that could hit the mainstream media soon and may or may not be relevant to stock market performance and investor confidence. YMMV.

[robinsongreen68]

i do appreciate these medical journal insights ryan, i don't know if i can speculate financially on the back of them but good to be 'in the loop' a little on where things might or might not stand

[Chinnock]

I’m going to buy a pub (bound to be a few good deals this Summer sadly) . If it all goes t!ts up, I can depart in a “Merry Haze”

[mr noble]

Semi-positive results in monkeys is months/years away from semi-positive results in humans.

[miguelh34]

Semi-positive results in monkeys is months/years away from semi-positive results in humans.

Indeed plus the manufacture of the drug distribution etc

[ryanb741]

Ok so this isn't going to turn into another Covid thread so I'll just respond to the last 2 comments that the indicated distribution of the ready to use human vaccine, assuming final stage 3 tests are successful is September. That's when the first (probably front line medical workers) would receive it. Of course to immunise the whole planet we are talking 12 months or more but immunising those people most at risk of catching/spreading infection is going to put a dent in transmission IF trials are successful. I wanted to rebut the fact that completing a human trial is years away as actually the data on success will be available next month and as I said, in theory September is the first vaccinations with the vaccines ALREADY in production now. An Indian pharma company plus Astra Zeneca are ALREADY manufacturing this at their own cost as they were already confident and after today's news even more so.

In the interests of openness I bought £10k worth of AstraZeneca shares on the back of this (well in actuality I've put Kill or Fill order in at 3% above last night's close price so hopefully it gets filled at as low a price as possible) - just to be open and this is NOT a recommendation as I'm not qualified to do so.

Anyway like I said this is an FYI, do NOT tun this into a Covid thread as basically those are full of diametrically opposed viewpoints and far too much WYSIATI. I am relaying the information with my first post and rebutting the last 2 comments with an insight into the proposed timelines in this post, timelines which of course may not come to fruition but it would appear that the likelihood is higher than it was a yesterday before the results came out.

In the interests of transparency here is a link to the report

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...CJ8_T73QSQfskw

Here is a link to a thread on it on a subreddit frequented by scientists. Where someone is a virologist or epidemiologist this will be confirmed on the thread. Do your own research and come to your own conclusions but sweeping statements for or against the hypothesis that a vaccine could be available in September are unwarranted at this stage unless someone knows more than the researchers or the pharma companies involved. Or Donald Trump and his 'Operation Lightspeed!'

https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID19/com...ents_sarscov2/

[mr noble]

Firstly - there will be huge swathes of the global population who refuse to put a new and relatively untested “rushed” injection into their bodies. I’m not sure I’d want it to be honest. Not until all the side effects have had a chance to be found. That could take years.

Secondly - I think there has been a chat amongst pharma and governments that this should all be a not for profit effort that all companies should share and help with. So I doubt the individual individual company share prices will move much if it’s an already huge company like Roche or AZ who find or manufacture the vaccine.

The doomsayers are suggesting that this all happened in the early days of the SARS vaccine trials, and 18 years later, they still haven’t found one that works.

[Saint-Just]

Sanofi took some heavy flak for suggesting America would be given priority to their Covid vaccine. If it is what they had planned to do, it might have been a bad move to brag about it to Bloomberg...

In any case they have reflected on the matter and backtracked as fast as they could. Just a simple misunderstanding that was taken out of context, you understand

[ryanb741]

Firstly - there will be huge swathes of the global population who refuse to put a new and relatively untested “rushed” injection into their bodies. I’m not sure I’d want it to be honest. Not until all the side effects have had a chance to be found. That could take years.

Secondly - I think there has been a chat amongst pharma and governments that this should all be a not for profit effort that all companies should share and help with. So I doubt the individual individual company share prices will move much if it’s an already huge company like Roche or AZ who find or manufacture the vaccine.

The doomsayers are suggesting that this all happened in the early days of the SARS vaccine trials, and 18 years later, they still haven’t found one that works.

Yeah and fair enough, like I said the info may or may not be useful. AstraZeneca has tanked this am btw so clearly I gave it the kiss of death!

Re SARS vaccines, I wouldnt read much into the lack of vaccines as global impetus and funding dried up when it burned itself out. We have plenty of coronavirus vaccines primarily in livestock or cats but the risk profiles are different so if 1 in every 100 vaccinated cattle gets long term liver damage that is seen as a risk worth taking. 1 in 100 humans getting the same thing is entirely different. An an aside I like the Astrazeneca stock anyway so we shall see.

[jonny]

Another 3 million US unemployment claims taking the total to 36 million over the past 6 weeks (159 million workers pre covid19) ,stock markets go up with the dow up 1.6% and s&p up 1.15%.

[~dadam02~]

Another 3 million US unemployment claims taking the total to 36 million over the past 6 weeks (159 million workers pre covid19) ,stock markets go up with the dow up 1.6% and s&p up 1.15%.

The bigger they are the harder they fall. Yesterday felt like a little glimpse into the future.

[Raffe]

Another 3 million US unemployment claims taking the total to 36 million over the past 6 weeks (159 million workers pre covid19) ,stock markets go up with the dow up 1.6% and s&p up 1.15%.

A day behind, are we?

[jonny]

A day behind, are we?

Lol, i was waiting for you to post it yesterday.

[Raffe]

Lol, i was waiting for you to post it yesterday.

My apologies.

Today we are reversing yesterday's move again, currently down 250 points for the Dow.

[BillN]

Today - Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML) 34.60p up 12.70%

what do I know?

[Raffe]

Today - Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (AML) 34.60p up 12.70%

what do I know?

What difference does it make if you bought at 1900?

[BillN]

What difference does it make if you bought at 1900?

clearly someone thinks it's worth 35p a share!!

[thenikjones]

I have no idea what the solution will be as far as investing your savings is concerned .............it's anyones guess.........

.

I am wondering what (UK) people on this thread are doing with the pensions, either company or SIPP. Are they still making monthly payments in, and holding in cash?

[~dadam02~]

I am wondering what (UK) people on this thread are doing with the pensions, either company or SIPP. Are they still making monthly payments in, and holding in cash?

Company pension paying in and investing as standard. Holdings fully invested. SIPP paying in as cash. Holdings fully in cash.

[ryanb741]

I am wondering what (UK) people on this thread are doing with the pensions, either company or SIPP. Are they still making monthly payments in, and holding in cash?

Still maintaining Sipp monthly payments but as cash initially and then having a look at whats going on and makinga call whether to keep as cash or get into a stock. Previously around 60% was going into a VLS80, some into Fundsmith, Baillie Gifford etc. What stocks I do go into are tech and pharma/health and the rest cash. The tax benefits are still making it well worthwhile maintaining the Sipp payment with the upside that A I can't spend it if it's in my SIPP and B if the economy does go belly up at least they can't take my pension! :)

[Bondurant]

Still paying in to company pension and SIPP funds each month

[dandanthewatchman]

clearly someone thinks it's worth 35p a share!!

And I bought them at £4 thinking that Lance Stroll investment could be a turnaround !!! Luckily it was a small punt. Proving again what we all know - emotional investment = loss.

Goldman Sachs should go to jail for grand theft managing to steal £19 a share on the float.

Suspect at 35p a few people think it can’t go much lower. Having read the reviews of the DBX I suspect they could be 5p before too long


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[BillN]

And I bought them at £4 thinking that Lance Stroll investment could be a turnaround !!! Luckily it was a small punt. Proving again what we all know - emotional investment = loss.

Goldman Sachs should go to jail for grand theft managing to steal £19 a share on the float.

Suspect at 35p a few people think it can’t go much lower. Having read the reviews of the DBX I suspect they could be 5p before too long


Sent from my iPhone using TZ-UK mobile app

my view which I expressed in a posting a little earlier is that the shares are worthless - sky high debts, a falling market, and significant losses ..... if the company goes "pop" the shareholders will get nothing.

[Daveya.]

I am wondering what (UK) people on this thread are doing with the pensions, either company or SIPP. Are they still making monthly payments in, and holding in cash?

Moved final salary to SIPP 3 years ago, have it in an Old Mutual fund, yoy flat and only 4 % down on pre covid, so they've done well, its 80% equity 20% cash

Sent from my SM-G988B using Tapatalk

[thenikjones]

Thank you for the comments. FWIW I am paying into company scheme (company does match, but I have to use their provider) and invested as per pre-COVID. For my SIPP I continue to pay in and do LV60 and full world tracker; keeping my nerve on my passive investing plan, I’ll find out in 5 years if I’ve made a terrible mistake or not.

[miguelh34]

my view which I expressed in a posting a little earlier is that the shares are worthless - sky high debts, a falling market, and significant losses ..... if the company goes "pop" the shareholders will get nothing.

I think they thought the IPO would do another Ferrari ...........................

[catflap]

I am wondering what (UK) people on this thread are doing with the pensions, either company or SIPP. Are they still making monthly payments in, and holding in cash?

I’ve stopped payments into my SIPP for now, will hold the funds somewhere I can access if needed but then all being well I’ll pay it in towards the end of the tax year once I’m confident I still have a job and I’ve earnings into the higher rate band. My company scheme is still being fully invested as before.

[murkeywaters]

Been looking at BP, share price looks good, future plan to reduce costs and push on with renewable energy seems solid and they are paying a good dividend in normal conditions, 1000 shares long term seems like a nice slow burner..

[Raffe]

Just received an email from my broker and they offered to reimburse my loss from the negative oil future trade. Nice.

Bloomberg has the details.

[murkeywaters]

Just received an email from my broker and they offered to reimburse my loss from the negative oil future trade. Nice.

Bloomberg has the details.

Phew, when I read your initial post and the losses I was dumbfounded, glad you recovered it all, go and splurge on a nice watch now

[ryanb741]

Just received an email from my broker and they offered to reimburse my loss from the negative oil future trade. Nice.

Bloomberg has the details.

Very nice! I must admit that kind of loss would give me an ulcer if it was down to a tech issue. Had you mentally written it off or were you hopeful the broker would resolve it?

[~dadam02~]

Just received an email from my broker and they offered to reimburse my loss from the negative oil future trade. Nice.

Bloomberg has the details.

Read that article a couple of days ago and wondered if you had traded through IB. Great outcome

[Daveya.]

Just received an email from my broker and they offered to reimburse my loss from the negative oil future trade. Nice.

Bloomberg has the details.

So was that fella Shah set right as well, he no longer owes 9m?

Sent from my SM-G988B using Tapatalk

[Raffe]

Very nice! I must admit that kind of loss would give me an ulcer if it was down to a tech issue. Had you mentally written it off or were you hopeful the broker would resolve it?

I had filed a complaint because of the technical issues with the trade as their software didn't allow to sell below zero. I wasn't sure what to expect, but was prepared to go the full mile and involve a lawyer if required. I expected some kind of outcome because after all, my counterparty was IAB UK and for the time being that is still covered by EU consumer protection.

Happy it was resolved to the full extent and without a fight, that was certainly more than I expected.

[Montello]

I had filed a complaint because of the technical issues with the trade as their software didn't allow to sell below zero. I wasn't sure what to expect, but was prepared to go the full mile and involve a lawyer if required. I expected some kind of outcome because after all, my counterparty was IAB UK and for the time being that is still covered by EU consumer protection.

Happy it was resolved to the full extent and without a fight, that was certainly more than I expected.

Nice one, that is a great result.

[thenikjones]

I had filed a complaint because of the technical issues with the trade as their software didn't allow to sell below zero. I wasn't sure what to expect, but was prepared to go the full mile and involve a lawyer if required. I expected some kind of outcome because after all, my counterparty was IAB UK and for the time being that is still covered by EU consumer protection.

Happy it was resolved to the full extent and without a fight, that was certainly more than I expected.

Glad it was resolved easily.

[mr noble]

Likewise, Raffe. Happy days.

Maybe a nice PP 5712 is in order?

[Raffe]

Thanks for the suggestion but not really interested in high end watches anymore. Been there, done that but my focus in life has changed considerably and I am happy for it.

[Saint-Just]

Thanks for the suggestion but not really interested in high end watches anymore. Been there, done that but my focus in life has changed considerably and I am happy for it.

Good for you mate. I also happen to believe that topping the Zeitwerk might have been both difficult and very expensive.

[Boss13]

Great news Raffe...glad they did the right thing!

[ryanb741]

I had filed a complaint because of the technical issues with the trade as their software didn't allow to sell below zero. I wasn't sure what to expect, but was prepared to go the full mile and involve a lawyer if required. I expected some kind of outcome because after all, my counterparty was IAB UK and for the time being that is still covered by EU consumer protection.

Happy it was resolved to the full extent and without a fight, that was certainly more than I expected.

Ah I see. A sensible (and happy) outcome all round. Phew!

Also, no excuse to pay your £50 into the fundraiser when you lose our bet ;) :)

[wileeeeeey]

Just received an email from my broker and they offered to reimburse my loss from the negative oil future trade. Nice.

Bloomberg has the details.

What a relief.

[maccer]

I had filed a complaint because of the technical issues with the trade as their software didn't allow to sell below zero. I wasn't sure what to expect, but was prepared to go the full mile and involve a lawyer if required. I expected some kind of outcome because after all, my counterparty was IAB UK and for the time being that is still covered by EU consumer protection.

Happy it was resolved to the full extent and without a fight, that was certainly more than I expected.

Result!!!!

[~dadam02~]

Markets flying today, what pandemic...?

[wileeeeeey]

Vaccine hopes are somehow making everything think a time machine has been invented and we can just go back to where we were.

[Daveya.]

5th v shape has started!

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[Daveya.]

Is there suck a thing as multiple v shapes?

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[crazyp]

Vaccine hopes are somehow making everything think a time machine has been invented and we can just go back to where we were.

I think they're liking more the idea of ANOTHER Fed stimulus injection....

[Raffe]

Vaccine hopes are somehow making everything think a time machine has been invented and we can just go back to where we were.

I think they're liking more the idea of ANOTHER Fed stimulus injection....

Whatever it is, it is powerful.

Any vaccine will take many more months until it makes a difference and I am afraid any hope that a second wave can be avoided/contained may be too optimistic.

Another round of Fed money would indeed make a difference - but if the only buying reason is the absence of alternatives for a high return, it may be worth considering if one might be better off parking the money and accepting no return rather than risking it all?

Well well well, interesting times and another big P+L swing in my account. Not that I am not used to it by now.