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Thread: When stocks rebound, WHERE best to invest?

  1. #1451
    Quote Originally Posted by ryanb741 View Post
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN22O1HG

    Possibly worth going into a pharma fund and hope it includes whoever gets announced by the WHO as having a viable treatment
    Thought you were already 40% in health and tech funds?

  2. #1452
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    Quote Originally Posted by vortgern View Post
    Thought you were already 40% in health and tech funds?
    This is about the other 40%.

  3. #1453
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    Quote Originally Posted by vortgern View Post
    Thought you were already 40% in health and tech funds?
    I am yes. Was sharing info as I believe that's the point of this thread?

  4. #1454
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    Druckenmiller Says Risk-Reward in Stocks Is Worst He’s Seen


    https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...mpression=true
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  5. #1455
    So, apart from second spikes appearing around the world, China tensions, confusing lockdown instructions, doom and gloom around massive recession, huge drop in GDP, Unions not playing ball, Trumps mental state, lack of coherent health and saftey rules on transport, all is good then?

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  6. #1456
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    So, apart from second spikes appearing around the world, China tensions, confusing lockdown instructions, doom and gloom around massive recession, huge drop in GDP, Unions not playing ball, Trumps mental state, lack of coherent health and saftey rules on transport, all is good then?

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    The Dow future says yes.

    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  7. #1457
    Wow, dead cats are now bouncy balls.

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  8. #1458
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Wow, dead cats are now bouncy balls.
    Maybe the dead cat gets 9 bounces. One for each life.

  9. #1459
    Footsy taking a late dive

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  10. #1460
    Someone in the Fed stirring it all up

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  11. #1461
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    My take is still pretty much the same as 6 weeks ago, we’re are heading downwards and the markets are being held up by optimism, printed money and the lack of alternative assets.

    All the economic indicators look dire.

    I just reviewed my own spending for April, excluding mortgage my spending was 52% less than average. I can see this level of spending remaining for months. This is handy as our income has dried up but we have not made any conscious economies it’s just we are not going out or holidaying or driving etc. I’d say we are a pretty average household so if you multiply this up by millions you see the global reduction in consumption and the impact on the economy.

    Markets have to adjust if you ask me, they seem to be defying logic but that is often the way.

  12. #1462
    My spending isn't lower, I just ordered extra beer and bought a new tele

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  13. #1463
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    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    My spending isn't lower, I just ordered extra beer and bought a new tele

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    I haven't flipped a watch for 3 weeks. The economy is fooked! :)

  14. #1464
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    My take is still pretty much the same as 6 weeks ago, we’re are heading downwards and the markets are being held up by optimism, printed money and the lack of alternative assets.

    All the economic indicators look dire.

    I just reviewed my own spending for April, excluding mortgage my spending was 52% less than average. I can see this level of spending remaining for months. This is handy as our income has dried up but we have not made any conscious economies it’s just we are not going out or holidaying or driving etc. I’d say we are a pretty average household so if you multiply this up by millions you see the global reduction in consumption and the impact on the economy.

    Markets have to adjust if you ask me, they seem to be defying logic but that is often the way.
    Interesting that you mention about spending as I was thinking about this recently and have just worked out that my spending excl mortgage was 56% lower than in April 2019. I spent less last April than almost every other month in the 2019/20 tax year (no logical reason for that!) so I see no reason to suspect that May will be any different and in fact will probably be lower still. This was despite a watch purchase (although I did sell one too) and no deliberate attempt to reduce spending. I expect these are not isolated examples and looking ahead, people are unlikely to be buying more TV's/outdoor furniture and DIY stuff if they made such purchases in March/April...

  15. #1465
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    Quote Originally Posted by mmgg1988 View Post
    Interesting that you mention about spending as I was thinking about this recently and have just worked out that my spending excl mortgage was 56% lower than in April 2019. I spent less last April than almost every other month in the 2019/20 tax year (no logical reason for that!) so I see no reason to suspect that May will be any different and in fact will probably be lower still. This was despite a watch purchase (although I did sell one too) and no deliberate attempt to reduce spending. I expect these are not isolated examples and looking ahead, people are unlikely to be buying more TV's/outdoor furniture and DIY stuff if they made such purchases in March/April...
    Strikes me consumption is way lower than the figures show as there is a big lag in the analysis of data.

    The examples are reflected by all my friends and family. This will eventually show in the figures.

    In addition I don’t see anyone making major purchases... cars, extensions, conservatories, holidays and so the list goes on

  16. #1466
    House price crash .This time the government won’t be able to step in

  17. #1467
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    There is/will be a lot of cash looking for a new home - it could stay in cash, but I doubt it, it will just be "when" it moves not "if" .........

  18. #1468
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    There is/will be a lot of cash looking for a new home - it could stay in cash, but I doubt it, it will just be "when" it moves not "if" .........
    Mass unemployment 3/5 Million . Looks like we are in for a bout of deflation

  19. #1469
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    Quote Originally Posted by miguelh34 View Post
    House price crash .This time the government won’t be able to step in
    Why would they? Can`t see a big problem with house prices falling, it's happened before.

    Looking at your posts you're a doom and gloom merchant!

  20. #1470
    No foreign investors buying up properties.Students won’t come to universities in the uk. Private land lords in these areas may have to sell up etc vicious circle

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by walkerwek1958 View Post
    Why would they? Can`t see a big problem with house prices falling, it's happened before.

    Looking at your posts you're a doom and gloom merchant!
    Easy bud I sometimes agree with your posts!

  21. #1471
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    Quote Originally Posted by miguelh34 View Post
    Mass unemployment 3/5 Million . Looks like we are in for a bout of deflation
    I think that is just one of the consequences that the Government are very worried about - a lack of demand

  22. #1472
    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    I think that is just one of the consequences that the Government are very worried about - a lack of demand
    Indeed when the government stop paying the wages will they have there jobs?

  23. #1473
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    Quote Originally Posted by miguelh34 View Post
    Mass unemployment 3/5 Million . Looks like we are in for a bout of deflation
    I just can fathom the deflation forecasters logic.

    We are in a phase of rampant QE, how can that lead to deflation?

    I concur that consumption is drying up and that hard times await but governments will be desperate for a bit of inflation.

  24. #1474
    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    I just can fathom the deflation forecasters logic.

    We are in a phase of rampant QE, how can that lead to deflation?

    I concur that consumption is drying up and that hard times await but governments will be desperate for a bit of inflation.
    If consumers are not spending what happens to the price of goods? Are consumers going to spend if they have no job?

    But can they generate it? (Inflation)Did it happen after 2008?


    You could argue it caused inflation in certain assets,stocks,houses,classic cars,watches....


    I think if oil is low for reasonable period of time and wells are mothballed and that pushes the price up, that could cause inflation. But what do I know ? The answer is not a lot!
    Last edited by miguelh34; 13th May 2020 at 23:02.

  25. #1475
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    Quote Originally Posted by miguelh34 View Post
    If consumers are not spending what happens to the price of goods? Are consumers going to spend if they have no job?

    But can they generate it? (Inflation)Did it happen after 2008?


    You could argue it caused inflation in certain assets,stocks,houses,classic cars,watches....
    If you print trillions what happens to the value of money?

  26. #1476
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    If you print trillions what happens to the value of money?
    Ask the Japanese. They invented zero interest rates and then QE - yet 30 years after the crisis started still not a bout of inflation.

  27. #1477
    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Ask the Japanese. They invented zero interest rates and then QE - yet 30 years after the crisis started still not a bout of inflation.
    I was just about to say that

  28. #1478
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    Carnage in the ftse this morning.

  29. #1479
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Ask the Japanese. They invented zero interest rates and then QE - yet 30 years after the crisis started still not a bout of inflation.
    There was decades between their crash and the start of their QE programme Abenomics.

  30. #1480
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    There was decades between their crash and the start of their QE programme Abenomics.
    They had interest rates of about 6% when the crash hit, took them a few years until they reached almost zero, 1996 if memory serves me correctly. When that wasn't effective, they introduced QE in 2000/2001, 10 years after the bubble burst. They didn't have any need for QE before that because they had other ammunition.

    All of it wasn't a straight line, many fake recoveries muddied the picture at the time.
    Someone who lies about the little things will lie about the big things too.

  31. #1481
    Talking about fake recoveries.......

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  32. #1482
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    Time will tell.

    But when economists can’t even agree on the inflation / deflation direction is clear no one can be certain.

    I’m still forecasting a bear market and holding my cash for better opportunities than exist today.

  33. #1483
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    Reality might be starting to set in for the charts but too early to call.

  34. #1484
    Suddenly the city is worried about a deep recession

    Suddenly

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  35. #1485
    Quote Originally Posted by Daveya. View Post
    Suddenly the city is worried about a deep recession

    Suddenly

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    Bright sparks eh

  36. #1486
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    Wow - I have just seen the Aston Martin share price is currently trading at 28/29p having fallen from a float price of 1900p.

    I knew buying into the company when it first floated was a sure way to lose money but I would not have expected this.

    Surely the brand name alone would interest a takeover bid of more than the current price?

  37. #1487
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cooper85 View Post
    Wow - I have just seen the Aston Martin share price is currently trading at 28/29p having fallen from a float price of 1900p.

    I knew buying into the company when it first floated was a sure way to lose money but I would not have expected this.

    Surely the brand name alone would interest a takeover bid of more than the current price?
    It’s hard to argue that the brand name would be worth less than 2% of the float valuation. I can only assume they are owned by a bigger group who has the rights to that asset.

  38. #1488
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    It’s hard to argue that the brand name would be worth less than 2% of the float valuation. I can only assume they are owned by a bigger group who has the rights to that asset.
    The company has very high levels of borrowing which will only increase this year and next

    if the Company went "pop" would the Shareholders get any return?

  39. #1489
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    It’s hard to argue that the brand name would be worth less than 2% of the float valuation. I can only assume they are owned by a bigger group who has the rights to that asset.
    You are mixing up enterprise value and market cap. The difference between the two is their debt.



  40. #1490
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    The company has very high levels of borrowing which will only increase this year and next

    if the Company went "pop" would the Shareholders get any return?
    Another horror story for Hargreaves Lansdown, they pushed the IPO heavily at retail clients

    An absolute wipe out, dreadful


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  41. #1491
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterdo View Post
    ...they pushed the IPO heavily at retail clients
    For a reason....

  42. #1492
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    Time will tell...I’m still forecasting a bear market and holding my cash for better opportunities than exist today.
    Me, too.

  43. #1493
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    I've just sold my (small) holdings in 2 funds

  44. #1494
    Some late rallies today, 6th V recovery started

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  45. #1495
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    I predict yet another bounce in the next few days.

    Then it might be time to move to cash/gold/crack.

  46. #1496
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    You are mixing up enterprise value and market cap. The difference between the two is their debt.
    No I’m not, I’m just stating that their brand has considerable value even if the company goes down and that I’d estimate that to be more than 2% of their market cap at sale.

  47. #1497
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    Quote Originally Posted by Montello View Post
    No I’m not, I’m just stating that their brand has considerable value even if the company goes down and that I’d estimate that to be more than 2% of their market cap at sale.
    Market cap is about 460 million pounds, while debt is a little over 1 billion. So let's assume EV is 1.5 billion. Plenty of space in there for the brand value, which is probably one of the main values left. A cash-burning business which had to slash the average selling price across the range to way below the cheapest entry level price is basically worth nothing (if not negative). The only other value is the potential for future profits if they manage not to screw up the launch of the DBX. If you are buying the shares, you are buying a highly leveraged bet on exactly that.

    If the company goes down, the value of any assets will go to the debt holders before the equity investors see one single penny. In order for that to happen, remaining cash (minus payables), machinery (if not already sold and leased) and brand value need to be over 1 billion Pounds and the current market cap of 500 million suddenly looks optimistic.

  48. #1498
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    Quote Originally Posted by Raffe View Post
    Market cap is about 460 million pounds, while debt is a little over 1 billion. So let's assume EV is 1.5 billion. Plenty of space in there for the brand value, which is probably one of the main values left. A cash-burning business which had to slash the average selling price across the range to way below the cheapest entry level price is basically worth nothing (if not negative). The only other value is the potential for future profits if they manage not to screw up the launch of the DBX. If you are buying the shares, you are buying a highly leveraged bet on exactly that.

    If the company goes down, the value of any assets will go to the debt holders before the equity investors see one single penny. In order for that to happen, remaining cash (minus payables), machinery (if not already sold and leased) and brand value need to be over 1 billion Pounds and the current market cap of 500 million suddenly looks optimistic.
    I think that's what I indicated - just look at their Accounts and projections

    They may be a company with a very desirable product, but their numbers now don't add up

    Unless the Chinese market saves them, which it won't, I think that they will be for the "chop" and the shareholders won't get a penny, brand value or not.............IMHO there's no value in the stock at the present time and the way they have geared up it is very unlikely that a "white knight" will come along to save them

    as is the way .........maybe a Chinese company will pay "pennies" for the name........but that's about it

    maybe the investment should be in buying a car at the right price, then at least the dividend will be driving it!!
    Last edited by BillN; 14th May 2020 at 19:30.

  49. #1499
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    Quote Originally Posted by peterdo View Post
    Another horror story for Hargreaves Lansdown, they pushed the IPO heavily at retail clients

    An absolute wipe out, dreadful


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    This. The hype at IPO was orgasmic. Oh dear. You have let me down dear.

  50. #1500
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillN View Post
    I think that's what I indicated - just look at their Accounts and projections

    They may be a company with a very desirable product, but their numbers now don't add up

    Unless the Chinese market saves them, which it won't, I think that they will be for the "chop" and the shareholders won't get a penny, brand value or not.............IMHO there's no value in the stock at the present time and the way they have geared up it is very unlikely that a "white knight" will come along to save them

    as is the way .........maybe a Chinese company will pay "pennies" for the name........but that's about it

    maybe the investment should be in buying a car at the right price, then at least the dividend will be driving it!!


    I like your thinking. Yesterday's numbers suggested that they are currently discounting at an incredible rate. This from Goldman Sachs:

    Pricing actions suggest hard reset - The extent of the decline in core ASPs was a surprise as the company de-stocked 428 units as part of its reset. Nevertheless, £98k seems very low given that even when adding sales tax at 20%, the implied retail price would seemingly be lower than the UK list price of Aston Martin’s cheapest model (pre-any options).
    Sounds like a cool 30% off or more could be had.

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